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The MORNING BID EUROPE - BoE will make it to the list as the others remain on course
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets expect that the Bank of England will be the sole mover in a series of central bank meetings on Thursday. A 25-basis point rate cut to 3.75 percent is almost as predictable as the collapse of the top order at the Ashes Test in Adelaide. Investors were reassured by the unexpected drop in UK inflation on Wednesday. However, with inflation at the highest level among G7 countries, 3.2%, it is unlikely that further rate cuts will be imminent. Sterling is down to $1.3374. It is expected that the European Central Bank will keep its rates at 2%, signaling a lack of appetite for rate cuts. The bank may also increase its growth forecasts. The central banks of Sweden and Norway will also remain at their current rates, which are 1.75% and 4.0% respectively. Meg O'Neill is the new CEO of BP, the British oil and natural gas company. She was previously the CEO of Australia's Woodside Energy. BP wants to refocus its efforts on hydrocarbons following a diversion into renewables. Sources say that activist investor Elliott Management is in the process of lining up potential candidates for CEO. President Donald Trump announced in a rare evening speech from the White House that he would pay a "warrior's dividend" of $1,776 to 1,45 million U.S. military personnel. Investors should take note of Trump's statement that he will soon announce the choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, adding "someone who is a big believer in lower interest rates". The November U.S. Inflation data will be released on Thursday. However, it won't include a comparison of the month to month figures because October numbers were not collected due to the U.S. Government shutdown. The markets were roiled by AI fears that started on Wall Street. Asian bourses also suffered losses, while oil prices rose on the news of U.S. sanctions against Russia for its Venezuelan blockade. Oracle, a texan cloud computing firm, is the main focus of concern. Shares fell 5.4% when it announced that a deal for equity to support a project for a data centre would not include Blue Owl Capital as a partner. Stocks have fallen by almost 50% since mid-September, when a deal made with OpenAI led to a 35% rally in a single day. The Bank of Japan has begun a two-day session in Tokyo that is expected to result in a rate increase on Friday. If the markets aren't convinced of further increases, the yen could be the focus of sales. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Decisions made by the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Riksbank, Norges Bank US November CPI
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Investors weigh the future US interest rate cut, and AI bubble as they consider copper.
The market was focused on the future interest rate path in the United States, as confidence in artificial intelligence trades waned. As of 03:30 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was?down 0.03% to 92360 yuan (US$13,114.85). The benchmark copper for three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.43%, to $11,686 per ton. In his Wednesday national address, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the next Federal Reserve chairman will be someone who is a believer in lower interest rates by "a lot". Trump has previously stated that he would announce his choice for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose tenure ends in May next year. The President made his comments a week after the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis point, helping copper outperform other base metals. Market participants are unsure whether the known finalist -- White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett and Federal Reserve Governors Kevin Warsh or Chris Waller -- will lower rates to Trump's liking. The U.S. Dollar rose slightly. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks more expensive to investors who use other currencies. Despite the growing skepticism about AI, Oracle's data centre partner Blue Owl Capital was reported to have backed a $10 billion contract for its next facility. This is due to concerns over debt and rising spending. Copper is a "key metal" used in data centres. Red metal is still supported by supply shortages and demand prospects, which have limited the extent of today's drop. Aluminium was up by 0.09%. Zinc gained 0.35%. Lead rose by 0.15%. Nickel gained 0.66%. Tin surged 3.10%. Thursday, December 18 DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0745 France Business Climate Mfg, Overall Dec 1200 UK BOE Bank Rate Dec 1315 EU ECB Refinancing, Deposit Rate Dec 1330 US Core CPI MM SA, YY NSA Nov 1330 US CPI Wage Earner Nov 201330 US Initial Jobless Clm 13, w/e 1330 United States Philly Fed Business Indx Dec ($1 = 7.0424 Chinese yuan renmin Thursday, December 18, DATA/EVENTS, GMT 0745 France Business Conditions Mfg Overall Dec 1200 UK BOE Rate Dec 1315 EU ECB refinancing, deposit rate Dec 1330 US Core Consumer Price Index MM SA YY NSA November 1330 US Wage Earner Nov 201330 US Philly Fed Indx Dec (1 = 7.0424 Chinese yuan renminbi). (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson, Harikrishnan
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Qatar reduces the February term premium on al-Shaheen crude, according to sources
QatarEnergy lowered the term premium on the?al-Shaheen oil loading for February, according to several 'trade sources'. This was due to the weakness of the spot benchmark premiums. The company, which is owned by the state, set February's prices at 53 cents per barrel over Dubai's quotes. This was down from 84 cents in January. Loading of January cargoes The price reduction?followed the decline in spot premiums of Middle East crude oil so far in this month. This was weighed down by abundant supplies on the?market, and an outlook for a surplus in 2026. QatarEnergy has sold five cargoes to Glencore, Indian refiners Reliance, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd at premiums of around 42 cents per barrel, according to the sources. Separately, 'Qatar awarded an oil cargo from Qatar Marine at a discount price of 60 cents per barrel to Unipec - the trading arm of Sinopec - and a Qatar Land cargo to Reliance?at an additional premium of 30 cents, according to the sources. Companies typically do not comment on business deals. Each cargo is 500,000 barrels.
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US crude futures surge in Asia due to Trump's Venezuelan blockade
U.S. crude oil futures were a dollar higher in Asian trading Thursday after President Donald Trump imposed a 'blockade' on tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Most exports remained on hold. As of 1109 GMT, the West Texas Intermediate contract had risen 98 cents or 1.75% to $56.92 a barrel. Trump had on Tuesday ordered a 'blockade' of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, calling the administration of President Nicolas Maduro a foreign terrorist group. Sources said most Venezuelan ?exports remained On Hold Wednesday, due to the 'blockade' even though Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA had resumed loading crude and fuel after having to suspend operations following a cyberattack. Chevron vessels continued to depart for the U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that "while enforcement details are unclear," the sudden escalation of U.S. sanctions against the Maduro regime has sparked concerns about supply disruption and triggered a short covering in an oversold market. Oil prices rose after the?news. The dollar rose by more than 1% during the previous session. This was a rebound from five-year lows, largely due to progress in Ukraine peace talks which seemed to indicate a possible easing of Russian sanctions. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Colleen Waye)
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Tinubu, Nigeria's Tinubu, nominates new oil regulators following the resignation of chiefs amid Dangote dispute
Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian president, has asked the Senate to confirm a pair of new oil and gas regulators in Nigeria after their predecessors abruptly quit. This was due to a high-stakes conflict between an agency and Africa's wealthiest man, Aliko Dagote. Tinubu was nominated after Gbenga?Komolafe - the former chief executive of Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission - and Farouk Ahmed - the head of Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority – left their positions. Dangote has accused Ahmed of allowing the entry of cut-price fuel imports that ?threaten local refineries, including his 650,000-barrel-per-day Lagos plant, Africa's largest. Dangote filed a?petition on Wednesday against Ahmed at one of Nigeria's anti-graft agencies – the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission. Komolafe has clashed over the failure of Dangote to enforce a law requiring that producers prioritize local refineries. The shake-up occurs at a crucial moment for Africa's largest oil producer. Regulatory uncertainty and fears about supply have been dominating headlines ever since Dangote filed a formal complaint against Ahmed citing concerns over governance and personal expenditures beyond declared income. Analysts say the resignations will not have a significant impact on the oil sector. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan is Komolafe’s preferred successor. He spent over three decades with the state oil firm, including as a director of one of its subsidiaries. Saidu Aliyu Muhammad, Farouk’s successor, has been named as an independent nonexecutive Director at?Seplat Energy. He has over 37 years' experience and led a division at NNPC and helped draft Nigeria’s Gas Master Plan. "I do not think that these resignations will adversely affect investor trust," said Ayodele ONI, a partner and energy lawyer with the Lagos-based Bloomfield Law firm. Tife Owolabi contributed additional reporting from Yenagoa, and Isaac Anyaogu from Lagos. Elisha Gbogbo wrote the article. Bernadette Baum edited it.
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Silver tops $66, gold gains 1% due to soft US labor market
Silver prices reached a record-high of $66 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold prices also rose as the Federal Reserve of the United States cut rates after signs of an ailing labor market and escalating tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. boosted demand for safe havens. Spot silver increased nearly 4%, to $66.22 per ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $66.88. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said that silver is pulling up gold. "There is money moving out of gold into palladium and platinum," Meir added. "$70/oz" (for silver) seems to be the logical next target for the short term." Gold spot rose 0.7%, to $4334.01 per ounce at 01:56 pm ET (18:56 GMT) after it had risen over 1% in the morning. U.S. Gold?futures closed 1% higher at $ 4,373.9. Silver has risen 129% in the past year, surpassing gold's 65% increase. On Tuesday, data showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 64,000 jobs in the U.S. last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021. Gold and other non-yielding investments could benefit from a weak labor market. According to?Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital S.A., the CEO and asset manager, the markets continue to see that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rates twice during the first half of 2026. This could support gold prices over this period. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its final quarter-point rate reduction of the year last week. Investors now price in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The market is now awaiting the Consumer Price Index for November, due Thursday. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released on Friday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, ordered a "blockade", of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela, Washington's latest effort to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government. This move adds to the safe-haven request. Palladium rose 2% to $1635.61 and platinum was up 2.2%, the highest level in over 17 years.
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Silver reaches record price of $65/oz due to a perfect storm
Silver's inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals?list and a wave momentum buying has propelled it to a new record high. Prices are expected to end 2025 more than twice where they started. Silver has gained over 120% in the past year, and according to LSEG's data dating back to 1982, is on track for its best-ever annual performance. The metal is beating safe-haven, gold which is expected to rise 64% by 2025. On Wednesday, spot prices reached a new record high of $66.87/oz. The current rally is largely driven by investment. The rally has a strong fundamental basis, but these prices are driven by speculation and investment," said Rhona OConnel, StoneX's head of market research. Silver's fundamentals are robust, with a persistent supply deficit and a healthy outlook for demand from the solar cell, artificial intelligence data centers, and electric vehicles industries. Metals also benefit from the same macroeconomic factors that support gold as well as flows to safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade tensions. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said that these factors and the less abundant inventories outside of the U.S. create a "very supportive environment" for future growth. He added that "Silver could reach a price of up to $75/oz by the end next year." Prices have also been supported by the metal's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on silver prompted a rush to the U.S. in early this year. This led to a shortage of liquidity in London's spot market. Analysts said that the combination of demand from India and China with momentum buying has created a perfect storm for metal. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that "strong price performances" attract Chinese traders to the market. This is evidenced by the increase in trading volumes and open interest on the exchanges. Analysts remain bullish about silver. They expect the metal to surpass the $70/oz mark next year. This is especially true if U.S. rate cuts boost the demand for precious metals. Others cautioned, however,?that historically volatile metals remain vulnerable to steep corrections. O'Connell said that if gold moves by x% in one direction, silver should move by 2x% to 2.5x% in the opposite direction because it is a smaller, more volatile market.
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Industry says EU carbon tax changes are not sufficient for metals
Industry representatives on Wednesday said that the proposed?changes in the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are a'step in the right directions' for Europe's?steel?and?aluminium?sector, but not a 'complete solution'. On Wednesday, the European Commission announced plans to extend the CBAM, which imposes a carbon-based tax on imports of metals such as steel and aluminium, and a few other commodities, to include some downstream products that contain a large amount of these metals. These include machinery, appliances and scrap. It did this in response to warnings by metal industry players from Europe regarding "carbon leakage", or the risk that industries worried about losing their competitiveness might move operations out of the region so as to avoid the costs of climate policies. The European Steel Association Eurofer stated in a press release that the proposals were flawed, but did not provide "a comprehensive and lasting response to jobs and carbon leakage", saying the number downstream products included is "very limited". Axel Eggert said that Eurofer, as Eurofer's Director General, was ready to continue discussions with legislators about how to make CBAM watertight. Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian aluminium manufacturer, was in the forefront of the 'lobbying' for the expansion CBAM. It said that 35% of EU aluminum recycling capacity would be lost if remelted scrap aluminium entered the EU free of a carbon levy. It said that the inclusion of "pre-consumer" scrap is a "big move forward". "However,?post-consumer scrap ?must also be added to the scope," a company spokesman ?said. "If we don't, the loophole for scrap will be open to half." Pre-consumer metal is scrap generated during manufacturing before a finished product reaches a consumer. Post-consumer metal, such as aluminum beverage cans, are end-of life metals. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tom Daly)
Suncor Hikes Up Fourth Quarter Production
Canadian oil and gas company Suncor said on Monday it saw higher upstream production and throughput at its refineries in the fourth quarter.
The Calgary, Alberta-based company's upstream quarterly production rose to 874,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 808,000 bpd during the same quarter last year.
Suncor said its refinery throughput rose by 31,000 bpd to 487,000 bpd during the quarter, meanwhile its refinery utilization jumped to 104% from 98% last year.
"Our strong operational performance also supported strong financial performance, including enabling us to achieve our $8 billion net debt target nine months ahead of the projection outlined in our May 2024 three-year plan," CEO Rich Kruger said.
Last month, the Canadian producer forecast higher oil and gas production as well as lower spending in 2025, hoping to benefit from the increase in export capacity since the commencement of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion last year.
(Reuters - by Vallari Srivastava in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)