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Japan data disappoints, but shares edge up on thinly traded holiday markets
The world's shares were steady on Monday, after Friday's plunge triggered by AI concerns. In Asia, the Lunar New Year holiday was in place and in the U.S. President's Day. China, South Korea and Taiwan were among the markets closed. MSCI's broadest global index of shares rose 0.1% as currencies, bonds, and world shares steadied. Stock futures continue to be traded, but the U.S. bond and stock markets will not open. European shares opened higher on Monday, boosted by a recovery in the banking sector. The heavyweight sector was hit last weekend when AI-related concerns spilled over into the financials. The STOXX 600 pan-regional index, which had been last in the market, rose by around 0.4%. The Japanese economy has reported a 0.2% annualised growth in the fourth quarter. This is far less than the 1.6% forecast, as the government's spending was a drag on the activity. The disappointing numbers highlight the "tough task" that Prime Minister Sanae Takayi faces and should encourage her to push for more aggressive fiscal stimuli. Japan's Nikkei ended 0.2% lower after gaining 5% in the previous week. Some investors, however, remained "bullish" despite Takaichi’s election results. The landslide victory of the LDP in Japan's general elections has given Prime Minister Takaichi all the power she needs to continue with her reflationary program. "We remain overweight Japanese stocks," stated a Monday note by?Benjamin Melman Global CIO of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Futures that were trading Monday gained 0.4%. This week, a slew of economic data will be released, including preliminary readings on global business activity, U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter, and inflation rates for the UK, Canada, and Japan. In a Monday note, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid stated that "Our economists are expecting (U.S. )real GDP to?slow down to 2.5% in Q4, which is a significant step?down" from the previous quarter's pace of 4.4%. CAPEX - MORE CAPEX = Fewer Buybacks Walmart will be the main attraction in the U.S. for the earnings season. This is after a disappointing retail sales performance in December. The stock of the retailer has increased by 20% in value this year. Its market capitalisation is now over $1 trillion, making it the largest company in the consumer staples industry. This sector will grow by more than 15% by 2026. The rotation of defensive stocks out of the tech sector has been a success, as investors have become concerned about the high cost of AI capital expenditures and the disruptive effects of AI on sectors like software. Software's market value dropped by 24% over the last three months. Hyperscaler capital expenditure plans are now $660 billion higher than they were at the beginning of earnings season, a $120 billion increase. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that as capex surged, S&P buybacks dropped by 7% compared to a year earlier. In a note, they said: "This marks the third quarter in a row of stagnation." We expect that the "increasing scarcity" of free cash flow and buybacks, will increase the premium paid by companies that are focused on returning cash to shareholders. The Federal Reserve is reducing interest rates to keep up with the economy and there's no shortage of money flowing into the bond market. Futures indicate that 68% of the time the Fed will reduce in June, and that 62 basis point of easing is already priced into the market for the entire year. The dollar index fell 0.8% to 96.890 last week, mainly due to the resurgent Japanese yen. The dollar was 0.4%?firmer at 153.34yen on Monday, after sagging 2.9%?last week. Meanwhile, the euro was flat at $1.1866. Gold fell?0.6% on the commodity market to $5,013 per ounce, after swinging wildly over recent weeks, as investors were forced out of leveraged position. Silver fell 0.3%, to $77.25 per ounce. The Brent oil price dropped around 20 cents, to $67.57 per barrel. U.S. crude oil fell about 17 cents, to $62.72 a barrel. Investors digested a recent report that OPEC was leaning toward a resumption in oil production increases starting April. (Reporting and editing by Sonali, Kate Mayberry, and Andrei Khalip.)
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Reliance Retail, India to test search and discovery platform for multi-channel push
A top executive at India's Reliance Retail?unit said on Monday that the company is piloting a platform for search and discovery in an effort to better integrate their store and online shopping experiences. Reliance Retail is the largest retailer in the country, with 19,340 stores across the nation. They sell everything from electronics to apparel to groceries for more than 349,000,000 customers. Reliance Retail's chief executive officer for Grocery Retail, Damodar Mall said that the company has piloted this platform in its clothing stores, such as Trends, Yousta and Smart Bazaar, and plans to implement it at Smart Bazaar by the end of this year. Mall, speaking at the Retail Leadership Summit in Mumbai, said that customers can scan a QR code to access the platform. This allows them to discover and search for products that are tailored to their tastes. He didn't disclose the amount invested or any other operational details about the new platform. Online shopping platforms like Amazon's India and Walmart's Flipkart are gaining market share, while companies such as Swiggy Instamart, Eternal Blinkit?and Zepto are grabbing up the remaining market. JioMart, Reliance's online food delivery service, will expand to compete in the "10-minute delivery" segment by 2025. The retail business saw its core margins fall to 8% from 8.6% in the third quarter of last year due to festive discounting, investments in hyperlocal delivery and an unforeseen impact from India's labour code. Mall noted that the pace of change in India's Retail sector is intense. However, it is taking place against a backdrop of an expanding consumption market, which provides room for shifts in share without limiting overall growth. (Reporting by Chandini Monnappa and Praveen Paramasivam in Mumbai; Writing by Surbhi Misra and Abinaya Vijayaraghavan in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
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China's Russian crude oil imports will reach a new record in February, as India reduces its purchases
According to traders and data from ship tracking, China's Russian imports will rise for the third consecutive month to a record high. Independent refiners have snapped up heavily?discounted?cargoes as India reduced purchases. Vortexa Analytics estimates that Russian crude oil shipments to China in February will be 2.07 million barrels a day, exceeding the January estimate of 1.7 millions bpd. Kpler's preliminary data for February showed imports of 2.083 million bpd. This is up from 1.718 millions bpd during January. Since November, China has displaced India as Moscow's largest client for seaborne shipments. Western sanctions due to the conflict in Ukraine and the pressure to sign a trade agreement with the U.S. have forced New Delhi into reducing Russian oil imports in December to their lowest level in two years. Kpler data shows that India's crude imports from Russia are expected to drop further in February to 1,159 million bpd. This has lowered Russian oil prices by $9 to $11 a barrel for deliveries in January/February to China. It is the lowest price in years for Urals - a grade that arrives from European ports and lands in India because of shorter journeys compared to China. Urals and other export grades like Sokol, Varandey, were added to regular shipments of Russia’s flagship ESPO mix exported from the Far East Port of Kozmino which is located closer towards China. This created strong competition against rival supplies from Iran. THREAT OF US STRINGS ON IRAN SPOOK "TEAPOTS" Teapots - independent Chinese refiners - are the largest global consumers of U.S. sanctioned oil from Russia and Venezuela. "For the quality of oil you get when processing Russian oil, versus Iranian supplies, Russian supply has become relatively more affordable," said a Chinese trader that regularly deals with teapots. The trader said that ESPO blend was traded last at a discount of $8 to $9 per barrel compared to ICE Brent. Iranian Light, a 'grade' of similar quality, had been assessed last at a price $10 to $11 less than ICE Brent. Since January, uncertainty over whether Washington would strike Iran militarily if the negotiations for a nucleotide deal did not yield Washington's desired result has curbed purchases from Chinese teapots, traders and retailers, according to Emma Li, Vortexa’s China analyst. Li said, "Now that people are concerned about Iranian oil loadings in the event of a war, Russian oil seems more reliable for teapots." Li said that a part of the increased Russian oil purchases was derived from larger independent refiners located outside of Shandong's teapot hub. Vortexa estimates that Iranian oil supplies into China, which are often mislabeled as Malaysian by traders to avoid U.S. sanctions, have decreased to 1,03 million bpd in February from 1.25 million bpd in January. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Chen Aizhu)
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Rio Tinto mine's Simandou iron-ore mine in Guinea: Contract worker dead
Rio Tinto, the world's biggest producer of iron ore, announced on Sunday that a contract worker had died after an incident at its SimFer mine in Guinea, which is part of Simandou's iron ore project. The death is the latest in a string of fatal accidents linked to the construction and operation of mines, ports and a 670 km (416 mile) railway linking the remote mining area to the coast of Guinea. The Anglo-Australian mining company announced that operations at the SimFer site had been suspended after Saturday's accident. Simon Trott, its chief executive said he was 'traveling to Guinea this coming week. 'DETERMINED to LEARN from the incident' Trott stated in a press release that "we are determined to learn from this incident and do everything we can in order to provide a safe workplace and prevent tragedies like this." Rio Tinto reported one death in March, but a?review? of internal documents?concluded that 13 local workers died between November 20,23 and the end of 2024 while working on infrastructure construction. Since then, the company has confirmed that two additional deaths have occurred, including one on Saturday. Three foreign workers died in an accident on a different site, according to Winning -Consortium Simandou. The death toll has reached 18 This brings the total death toll since the construction of the railway and mines to 18 workers. Simandou has a large Chinese backing: China Baowu Resources owns a majority stake in Winning Consortium Simandou, which controls the northern half of Blocks 1 and 2. The southern half of the project, Blocks 3 &?4, are held by Rio Tinto in partnership with Chinalco, the Guinean government, and Rio Tinto directly. This puts roughly 75% under Chinese influence, and 25% under Rio Tinto's interest. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton, Matthew Lewis and Clara Denina)
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Iran's Foreign Minister will meet IAEA Chief ahead of nuclear talks
Iran's Foreign Minister?Abbas Araqchi has said that he will be meeting the UN chief nuclear watchdog on Monday ahead of U.S.Iran nuclear talks. The two countries are attempting to resolve their disagreement over 'Tehran’s nuclear program' and avoid conflict in light of 'U.S. Warships are deploying to the Middle East. Both sides held indirect discussions in Oman earlier this month. "I'm in Geneva with real solutions to reach a fair and equitable agreement. Araqchi told X that submission is the only thing on the table. Washington wants to broaden the scope of discussions to include non-nuclear topics like Iran's stockpile of missiles, but Tehran insists it will only discuss curbs to its nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions and refuses to accept zero uranium enrichment. TEHRAN SEEKS RELIEF FROM SANCTIONS Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, told the BBC that "the ball is in America's court" to prove they are serious about a deal. U.S. officials said that the U.S. had sent a second aircraft to the Middle East, and was preparing for a possible sustained military campaign in the event the talks fail. The Iranian civil defence organization held a chemical defense drill on Monday in the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone in southern Iran to improve preparedness for possible chemical incidents. Iran-U.S. talks had been stalled for months before the U.S. joined Israel to strike Iranian nuclear sites. Washington demanded that Tehran give up enrichment on Iranian soil, which it viewed as a path to an Iranian nuke weapon. Iran claims its nuclear program is solely for civilian uses and is prepared to allay concerns about nuclear weapons by "building confidence that enrichment will remain for peaceful purposes." Araqchi has said that he will be meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, on Monday for "deep technical discussions". IAEA SEESKS CLEARANCE ON ENRICHED URANUM The IAEA has been urging Iran to explain what happened to the 440 kg (970 lbs) of highly-enriched uranium it had after Israeli and U.S. strikes, and to allow full inspections to resume. This includes?inspections at three key sites bombed last June: Natanz Fordow and Isfahan. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said that he had told Donald Trump in the past week that any U.S. agreement with Iran would include dismantling 'Iran's nuclear?infrastructure and not only stopping the enrichment process. Netanyahu is skeptical of any deal, but it must include the removal of enriched material from Iran. He said: "There will be no capability of enrichment - that is, not just stopping the process but also dismantling all the infrastructure and equipment which allows enrichment to begin with." Reporting by Dubai Newsroom and Steven Scheer, Jerusalem; Writing by Michael Georgy, Editing by Sharon Singleton
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India hostss global AI summit, including OpenAI and Google
This week, top executives from global AI giants are expected to join world leaders at New Delhi for an 'artificial intelligence summit. India is attempting to attract more investment into the industry. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have already committed $68 billion to AI and cloud infrastructure investments in India by 2030. India's officials have positioned the India AI Impact Summit that began on Monday as a forum to amplify the voices of developing countries in global AI governance. Delhi is the first city to host the global event. India's PM Narendra Modi wrote on X that the theme of this summit was "welfare for all and happiness for everyone, reflecting our commitment to harnessing Artificial Intelligence (AI) for?humancentric progress." Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will be among the key speakers at the summit. Mukesh Ambani of Reliance, Reliance chairman Mukesh, and Google DeepMind's CEO Demis Hassabis will also speak on Thursday. Modi will also share the stage with French President Emmanuel Macron on that?day, who is in India for a bilateral visit. The prime minister's public relations campaign has been carried out by hanging large banners featuring Modi's picture along the main roads of Delhi. India, which still hasn't produced a dominant AI model that can compete with those of the U.S. and China, bets on large-scale deployment over foundational models to gain a competitive advantage. India's Economic Survey released last month urged the Government to focus on "application led innovation" instead of chasing mega-models at frontier scale. India's largest market for OpenAI is already backed by significant domestic adoption. With more than 72 millions daily ChatGPT users in late 2025. Rapid AI adoption also threatens jobs in India's $283billion IT sector. Jefferies predicts that call centres will face a 50% revenue loss from AI adoption by 2030. AI ?CRICKET COACH, PRICEY HOTELS The previous 'global AI summits' at Bletchley in the UK, Seoul in Korea, and Paris in France in 2025 were marked by voluntary corporate pledges, safety commitments and governance statements, though critics claimed they had few enforceable results. The India?summit is expected to attract more than 250,000 attendees, including 300 exhibitors in a 70,000 square metre expo at Bharat Mandapam, a $300-million mega convention complex. Delhi's luxury hotel prices have soared due to the influx of international delegates, sparking social media shock. A suite at the Taj Palace, which normally costs about $2200 per night, was listed at over $33,000 last week. The Indian Supreme Court announced on Saturday that advocates could appear by video conference during the summit, citing the anticipated traffic congestion in the area. (Reporting and editing by Adityakalra and Kate Mayberry in New Delhi)
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India's Torrent Power will buy L&T Coal-plant Operator for $760 million
Torrent Power, an Indian company, announced on Monday that it would 'buy a coal-fired plant operator in northern India from Larsen & Toubro at 68.89 billion rupees (US$759.48m) including debt. Larsen & Toubro's unit L&T Power Development, which will execute the transaction, will receive 36.61 bn rupees - for the sale of Nabha Power - it announced in a separate press release. Nabha operates 1,400 megawatts of coal-fired power plant in India's Punjab state, and supplies its entire electricity to the Indian state power corporation under a contract lasting 25 years. Torrent expects that the deal will increase its operating capacity from 5 GW to 6.4 GW. This deal is part of Torrent's ongoing efforts to increase its thermal portfolio, as more power producers turn to coal-based capacity to meet the rising demand for electricity in India. Torrent announced a $2.5 Billion coal power project in central India last year and evaluated plans to build 5-7 GW in the next decade. In a press release, Torrent Power Chairman Samir Mehta stated that the acquisition marked Torrent's entry 'into the high growth power market of Northern 'India'. He added that the deal would "deliver a meaningful increase in?the total revenues and profitability."
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Iran's Foreign Minister says he will be meeting IAEA Director on Monday
Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, said he would meet the director?of UN nuclear watchdog the day before a second round?of U.S. and Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Iran and the U.S. resumed negotiations earlier this month in order to resolve their 'decades-long' dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program and avoid a new conflict as U.S. aircraft carriers, including a 2nd aircraft carrier, were deploying into the region. "I'm in Geneva with some real ideas on how to get a fair deal. Araqchi said on X that submission is the only thing on the table. Tehran is unwilling to accept zero uranium enrichment and will only discuss its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Before the U.S. joined Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites?in June, Iran and U.S. nuclear negotiations had stalled due to Washington's demands that Tehran?give up enrichment on their soil?which?the U.S. views?as a path to an Iranian nuke weapon? Iran claims that its nuclear program is only for civil purposes. It is prepared to allay concerns about nuclear weapons by "building confidence that enrichment will be and stay for peaceful purposes." Araqchi has said that he will be meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael?Grossi, on Monday along with nuclear experts for "deep technical discussions." The IAEA has called on Iran to explain what happened to its stockpile containing 440 kg highly enriched Uranium after Israeli-U.S. attacks and to allow inspections to resume in all three sites bombed by Israel and the United States in June, Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iran has allowed the UN nuclear watchdog to inspect declared facilities that weren't targeted in June. However, the IAEA needs to clarify its position regarding U.S. or Israeli strikes. In September, the?IAEA announced an agreement with Iran in Cairo. The agreement was meant to pave way for full inspections and verifying. However, Tehran canceled the agreement when Western powers reinstated UN Sanctions on Iran. Reporting by Dubai Newsroom, Editing by Toby Chopra
The Dutch Supreme Court has rejected the Russian appeal regarding seizure and brand names of vodka
The Dutch Supreme Court denied on Friday an appeal from Russia against the seizure by former shareholders of the now-defunct oil company Yukos of the rights to Stolichnaya ad Moskovskaya brand names of vodka for the Benelux Market.
Former shareholders have said that they will now sell the Benelux right to 18 different vodka brands to receive a minimum of $50 billion in arbitration awards Russia has been ordered to pay to them in 2014.
The ruling on brand names comes after a lower court denied an appeal last month by Russia against the arbitral award that Russia has so far refused to pay.
Yukos was seized in 2006 by the Russian state after the oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky had a falling out with Vladimir Putin. The government demanded billions in back taxes, which led to Yukos' collapse.
TASS, the state-run news agency, reported earlier this month that Russia would ask the Dutch Supreme Court for an overturn of the lower court's decision on the arbitration award. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Bart Meijer)
(source: Reuters)