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Oil refiners may need to catch their breathe.

Shares of global oil refiners are up this year. This is due in part to supply disruptions caused by the U.S. - Iran and Russia - Ukraine conflicts. Technical analysis suggests that the rally may need to take a pause before the next chapter of the oil sector unfolds.

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VanEck Oil Refiners ETF CRAK spent the majority of the past decade confined within a clearly defined trading channel spanning approximately $17 from top-to-bottom. Early in the year, the ETF decisively broke above the channel ceiling near $43. It quickly reached the first logical chart goal: a move that was equal to the height of the channel, or $60.

CRAK's price has risen modestly since then, but it appears overextended at $63 levels. The RSI, a widely-used gauge of market movement, flashes overbought signs on daily, weekly, and monthly 'timeframes. This suggests that the ETF may need to cool off its 66% surge year-to date.

Fibonacci projections - percentage-based calculations that technical analysts use to forecast possible price targets – indicate that $70.5 and $77 are the next levels of interest if the uptrend resumes following a consolidation.

But caution is advised. If the price falls below the high of July, $56.85, according to LSEG, it could lead to a drop towards the peak in May, near $52. If CRAK breaks below that level, it would increase the likelihood that CRAK will retreat back to its old trading range of $43 or less.

What does the chart show?

* CRAK has broken above its decade-long range of trading early this year.

*?RSI across all timeframes signals the ETF as overbought and pointing towards possible consolidation

Fibonacci targets are $70.5 and $77. A fall below $56.85 could lead to a decline towards $52 or lower.

(source: Reuters)