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Andy Home: Copper market is wary of the US tariffs that will follow.
Since President Donald Trump's February order to investigate U.S. imports of copper, the price of copper has been rising. How long will this last, and how difficult will it be to come down? It's a race to get as much copper through U.S. Customs as possible before tariffs are implemented. Copper tariffs will come, there's no doubt about that. The question is when and at what level? Bets are that the copper levies would be 25 percent, which is the same rate as imposed on steel and aluminum imports. The market believed it had 270-days, which is the maximum time for a Section 232 investigation. It's no longer so sure. The impact of wider reciprocal trade tariffs, due to be announced Wednesday on what Trump has called "Liberation Day", is uncertain. The confusing and conflicting tariff situation has divided market opinion. Some analysts have called for higher copper price, while others warn of an impending crash. 'TRUMP TIME' The CME spot price of copper reached a record high of $5.199 per lb, surpassing its previous peak of $4.199 during the May 20,24 squeeze. The London Metal Exchange cash price only reached $10,100 per ton. This is a far cry from its peak in May 2024 of $10,900. Bloomberg reported that tariffs could be implemented in weeks, not months as expected. This possibility should not have been a surprise. Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, said that at the time the Section 232 announcement was made the investigation would be finished "in Trump's time". The apparent confirmation that "Trump Time" is a thing has left traders confused about the best time to ship physical copper to the U.S. PHYSICAL FLOODS According to Mercuria, up to half a a million tonnes of copper may be headed to the U.S. in order to take advantage of the unprecedented arbitrage opportunities. Will it arrive in time? Physical arbitrage is complicated due to the CME's restrictive list of acceptable delivery brands. Since February's Section 232 declaration, LME stocks have dropped from 258,425 to 106,900 tonnes, and around half the total inventory is now awaiting physical loading-out. The LME's warehouse system is a mix of Chinese and Russian steel, so it's unlikely much of it will reach the U.S. LME stocks are instead diverted to buyers who are willing to exchange the South American brands of copper that dominate the CME list of good-delivery. It may take more time than you think to switch locations and brands in the physical supply chain. BULLS AND BEARS If copper tariffs were to arrive sooner than expected, the pull of copper towards the U.S. could be less strong and last shorter than anticipated. This means that any shortages in other parts of the world will also be less severe than expected. The markets are bracing themselves for the uncertainty that will be caused by the U.S. reciprocal trade tariffs, which are expected to be announced in the coming week. The way micro- and macro-tariffs interact on the copper market has divided opinion. Goldman Sachs remains in the bulls' camp and has maintained its forecasts of LME copper prices for three, six, and twelve months at $9,600 per ton and $10,700. Citi has, on the other hand, cut its short-term forecast of $10,000 per ton to $9,500 and expects an average price of $8,800 for the second half. BNP Paribas is still too optimistic. They predict a price drop to $8,500 a ton as soon as the copper tariffs come into effect and arbitrage trading stops. You're not alone if you have questions about copper. The price outlook is still unclear until Doctor Copper and the rest of the world get more clarity about Trump's tariffs. Do not hold your breath. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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What options does the EU have in response to Trump's tariffs?
The European Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Tuesday that the European Union has a "strong" plan to retaliate for tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, she preferred a negotiated resolution. Trump's administration imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in March, and increased duties on automobiles will come into effect on Thursday. Trump will announce plans on Wednesday for what he calls "reciprocal duties". In 2023, the United States and European Union will have the largest trade relationship in the world, with a combined trading volume of 1.6 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) worth of goods and service. This is almost 30% of all global trade. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, Washington has more to worry about in a tariff war on goods than Brussels. U.S. imports of goods into the EU will total 334 billion euro by 2024, compared to 532 billion euro of EU exports. Here are some possible EU responses. TARIFFS RETALIATORY The European Commission may propose retaliatory duties on goods. These can only be blocked by a majority of 15 EU members representing 65% or the EU's population. It has already laid out a two-stage response plan to the steel and aluminum tariffs. It says that it will first restore the measures taken in 2018, when Trump first imposed import tariffs for metals. These were later suspended by Joe Biden. The counter-measures were originally due to take effect on Tuesday but were delayed until mid-April by the Commission to give it more time to decide which U.S. products to target. France and Italy, two wine exporters, are concerned about the taxation of bourbon. This comes after Trump had threatened to retaliate by imposing 200% tariffs on European alcohol. The Commission has also drawn up a list of U.S. imported goods, including clothing, meat, dairy products, and wines, worth 21 billion euros. It plans to reduce this to 18 billion euro for the second tranche of tariffs that was originally scheduled to begin in mid-April. The EU has yet to announce what it will do in response either to the new reciprocal taxes or the new automobile tariffs. Anti-coercive Instrument The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which entered into force in 2023, gives the bloc a much wider range of options to act against countries who put economic pressure on EU member states to change their policy. The EU can also limit the access of companies from third countries to tenders or affect services or investment. The United States trades goods with the EU at a deficit, but it trades services at a surplus, which includes digital services like those provided by Amazon, Microsoft or Uber. The EU may also limit the protection of intellectual properties rights, restrict financial services companies' access to EU market and hinder companies' ability place agrifood and chemicals in the EU. ACI was first proposed in 2021 to respond to EU criticisms that the Trump Administration and China used trade as a tool for political purposes. According to Lithuanian officials China targeted Lithuania after it allowed Taiwan set up a virtual embassy in Vilnius. The law allows the Commission to investigate possible cases of coercion for up to four month. If the Commission finds that foreign countries' measures are coercive, it will propose this to EU member states, who have eight to ten weeks to confirm its findings. This requires a majority of EU member states, which is a much higher standard than the one required to apply retaliatory duties. Normaly, the Commission will then consult the foreign country in order to stop the coercion. If this fails, it can then adopt EU response measures within six months, which will enter into force within three months. The entire process could take up to a year. $1 = 0.9275 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Peter Graff, Additional Reporting by Leigh Thomas)
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EU to relax CO2 emission targets for automakers
The European Commission published a proposal on Tuesday to relax the rules. This will give automakers three years to meet the EU CO2 emission targets of 2025 for cars and vans. The European automakers had requested Brussels to ease the targets. These depend on selling more electrical vehicles, an area where they are behind their Chinese and U.S. competitors. According to the changes proposed on Tuesday, compliance with CO2 regulations for 2025 would be based on the average emissions of a carmaker over the period from 2025-2027 rather than only this year. In a press release, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, said: "With today's announcement, we grant greater flexibility to this sector and, at the same, we remain on track with our climate goals." Von der Leyen promised earlier this month that he would give automakers a "breathing room" regarding the rules, after European auto manufacturers stated the original targets may result in up to $15 billion in fines ($16.2 billion) for the industry if they missed the goals. This year, the tighter EU carbon dioxide emission limits for carmakers came into effect. These require that at least one fifth of all sales from most car companies be electric vehicles. The European Parliament must approve the proposal made on Tuesday to amend the law. EU member states can also propose additional changes. The Czech Republic, which is a major hub for automobile manufacturing, had previously stated that it would push to have a five-year period of compliance. The European auto industry has already been affected by a drop in demand and factory closures. Now, they are bracing themselves for U.S. Tariffs. Volkswagen and Renault have both expressed their support for an extension of the compliance period, but not everyone in the industry has agreed. Volvo Cars - which is owned in majority by Chinese electric vehicle maker Geely - warned against penalizing companies who have invested to ensure they can meet the 2025 targets. E-Mobility Europe, a group representing the electric transport industry in Europe, has warned that changing the CO2 limit for 2025 will further put Europe behind China when it comes to EVs. It also discourages investments in charging infrastructure. The EU has also set a long-term climate goal for all new cars to be sold after 2035, with zero emissions. This effectively ends the sale of new combustion engine vehicles. Some EU legislators and member governments are planning to oppose this target when the policy is reviewed later this year. They claim it will harm already struggling carmakers. The European Commission, however, has refused to change the 2035 goal. It says that this is essential for achieving green goals and ensuring a predictable investment climate over time. $1 = 0.9251 euro (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett, Philip Blenkinsop)
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South Africa wants to meet with US over auto tariffs
Parks Tau, South Africa's Trade Minister, said that the country will request a meeting with U.S. officials to discuss auto tariffs. The levies are of concern, he added, as South Africa enjoys preferential trading status with the United States. South Africa's exports of parts and vehicles to the United States are estimated at more than $2 billion. A planned 25% tariff on automobile imports announced last week by U.S. president Donald Trump could have a serious impact. Tau stated in a press release that the U.S. The Section 232 Tariffs will be applied to the imports of automobiles and auto parts from South Africa and other countries that are beneficiaries of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act. AGOA allows eligible African countries to export agricultural products and manufactured goods, including cars and parts, duty-free. Tau stated that "automobile exports from South Africa represented 64% of South Africa’s exports in 2024 under AGOA, and therefore are a significant component for products currently benefitting under the preferential program." The Automotive Production Development Programme in South Africa offers rebates on U.S. imported cars, while South Africa's exports of automobiles to the United States are duty-free. Tau said that South Africa's automobile exports account for just 0.99% of the total U.S. vehicle imports, and 0.27% auto parts. "They do not pose a threat to U.S. Industry", Tau added. Tau stated that "South Africa would seek to meet with United States authorities in order to discuss this development, due the possible negative impact on the South African Economy." NAAMSA, the representative body for South Africa's Automotive Industry has stated that they are actively evaluating the potential impact of tariffs on their industry and engaging with members and key stakeholders. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other car brands are exported by South Africa to the United States. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Nqobile Dudla)
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Sources say that OPEC+ will meet on Thursday and likely stick to the planned production increases.
OPEC+ ministers will meet Thursday to discuss a possible increase in oil production starting May. In May, eight members of OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies, led by Russia) are expected to increase oil production by 135,000 barrels a day. This would be the second increase in a plan that aims to undo some of the millions barrels per day cuts the group had been implementing since 2022. OPEC+ also pressures other producers who have exceeded their production targets to reduce output and temporarily pump below target to compensate. According to one of the OPEC+ members, the meeting was held to discuss plans to reduce output by some members in order to compensate for exceeding their quotas. Two other sources said that the plan for the group to continue unwinding their most recent layer in oil production cuts is expected to stay unchanged for May. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources declined to provide their names. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. OPEC+ is cutting its output by 5,85 million bpd. This represents about 5.7% global supply. The group has agreed to a series steps that will support the market since 2022. OPEC+'s ministerial committee was originally scheduled to meet April 5, but a source has said that it may take place Thursday. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Olesya Astakhova; writing by Alex Lawler; Editing by David Goodman, Ros Russell
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US construction spending exceeds expectations in February
The U.S. Construction spending in February increased more than anticipated as mortgage rates declined, boosting single-family homebuilding. However, rising economic uncertainty due to tariffs on imported goods could slow the momentum. Census Bureau of the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that construction expenditures increased by 0.7% following a 0.5% decline in January, which had been downwardly revised. The economists polled had predicted that construction spending would rebound by 0.3% following a 0.2% decrease in January. In February, construction spending increased 2.9% on an annual basis. The spending on private construction projects increased by 0.9%. Residential construction investment grew by 1.3%. Outlays for new single-family homes also increased 1.0%. Mortgage rates are down from their lofty highs at the beginning of the year. Tariffs on imported products remain a barrier for builders. The President Donald Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more duties to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing taxes on Canadian softwood timber, which is used for construction, furniture, and paper production. Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese products to 20%, and imposed duties on steel and aluminium. According to the National Association of Homebuilders "builders estimate that a typical cost impact from recent tariff action is $9,200 per house." In February, the expenditures on multi-family housing units remained unchanged. Investments in non-residential private structures such as offices and factories increased by 0.4%. The increase in public construction spending was 0.2%. Spending by state and local governments increased by 0.4% while federal government expenditures declined 1.6%. Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci and Andrea Ricci (Reporting)
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In Q1, activists increase demands for companies worldwide, with a focus on US corporations
Barclays data shows that corporate agitators targeted more companies worldwide in the first quarter to increase pressure on them to improve their performance. The majority of these demands were directed towards U.S.-based corporations. Activist investors, such as Elliott Investment Management and Mantle Ridge, pushed companies like oil giant BP and rideshare company Lyft to make changes in the first quarter. The number of global campaigns grew by 17% and reached 70. The data revealed that the number of U.S. campaigns increased by 46%, to 41. Jim Rossman is the global head of shareholder advice at Barclays. He said: "Activists continue to exploit all of the uncertainty." "We have seen activists win more board seats, more battles and more settlements in early 2025 than we had a year earlier." The new campaigns this year come as a result of a record number activist shareholders targeting companies worldwide in 2024. Also, President Donald Trump’s tariffs, mass job cuts within U.S. government departments, along with fears of recession, have created market volatility. Investors are still pushing management to improve their business operations. About one-quarter of the campaign requests this year were centered around strategy and operational issues, which is about the same percentage as last year. Only about a quarter (25%) of campaigns include M&A demands such as divesting business or selling an entire company. M&A demand is down about half compared to when global deal volumes reached a record in 2021. Rossman noted that activists were also seeing their campaigns pay off. The number of board positions won, which is often used as a gauge of success, increased during the first three months. 51 seats were won in both settlements and battles, a 34% increase over last year. NEWCOMERS ACTIVE Activism is becoming popular among newcomers who are inspired by the success of others and want to return to a time when things are uncertain. This includes newly formed funds as well as funds that have not run a campaign in the past. The data shows that eleven so-called newbies ran campaigns in the first quarter. No comparative data was available for the first quarter 2024. Barclays' data for 2024 counted 47 newcomers. Ed Garden, who co-founded Trian Fund Management and now runs Garden Investments, encouraged Middleby, which designs equipment for residential and foodservice kitchens and previously founded Trian Fund Management to concentrate on its core business in January. Garden joined the board of Middleby in February. Barclays bankers expect that more companies will be facing shareholder demands in the remainder of 2025. They also believe the majority of activity will remain centered on U.S.-based companies. Matthews International defeated Barington Capital Group despite the fact that all three proxy advisory firms backed the hedge fund candidates. Barclays' data shows that there were 13 proxy battles in the first three months of this year, up from 10 a few years ago. The data also showed that activity has increased in Japan. This represents a 45% rise from the previous year and 16 campaigns. Europe, however, has seen little action. There have only been 9 activist campaigns in Europe - down 18% on a year earlier. (Reporting and editing by Svea HerbstBayliss, Muralikumar Aantharaman).
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The key facilities of Iran's nuclear program
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that this week if Iran didn't reach a deal with America over its nuclear program "there would be bombing", adding Israel's threat to attack Iran nuclear facilities. Here are some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities. Where are Iran's nuclear facilities? The Iranian nuclear programme is spread out over many different locations. While Israel's airstrikes have been a threat for decades, some sites are underground. IRAN HAS A NUCLEAR WAR PROGRAM? The United States, as well as the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, believe that Iran had a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons program which it stopped in 2003. The Islamic Republic has denied ever possessing or planning one. Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities as part of a 2015 agreement with world powers. In exchange, the sanctions imposed by international governments would be lifted. The pact collapsed after Donald Trump, then president of the United States, pulled out in 2018. Iran began to abandon the restrictions within the year. IS IRAN INCREASING ITS URANIUM ENRICHMENT? Yes. Since the deal fell apart, Iran has expanded its uranium-enrichment programme. The time it takes to reach weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon is now days or a little over a week instead of a year as was the case under the 2015 agreement. It would take more time to make a bomb using that material. The exact time frame is unclear and subject to debate. Iran enriches uranium up to 60% fissile purity, which is close to 90% weapons-grade. It has two sites where it does this. In theory, Iran could make six bombs if it enriched the material further. NATANZ Complex at the centre of Iran's nuclear enrichment program, located on a plain bordering mountains south of Tehran in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom. Natanz is home to two enrichment facilities: the massive, underground Fuel Enrichment plant (FEP) as well as the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plan (PFEP). In 2002, an exiled Iranian group revealed that Iran was building secretly Natanz. This sparked a diplomatic standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear intentions. The standoff continues to this day. The FEP is a facility designed for commercial enrichment, with 50,000 centrifuges. There are approximately 16,000 centrifuges installed, of which 13,000 are operational, and they refine uranium up to 5% purity. The FEP is described by diplomats who are familiar with Natanz as being three floors underground. It has been debated for years about the damage that Israeli airstrikes can do. Other means of damage to the centrifuges have been used at FEP, including an explosion in April 2021 and a power cut that Iran claimed was an Israeli attack. The PFEP above ground houses only hundreds centrifuges, but Iran enriches up to 60% purity here. FORDOW Fordow, on the other side of Qom is a site for enrichment dug into the mountain. It's probably better protected against potential bombardment as the FEP. Iran was not allowed to enrich at Fordow under the 2015 agreement with major powers. The centrifuges are mainly advanced IR-6 machines. Up to 350 of these can enrich up to 60%. In 2009, the United States announced that Iran has been building Fordow secretly for years without informing the IAEA. Then, U.S. president Barack Obama stated: "The size of the facility and its configuration are inconsistent with a peace programme." ISFAHAN Iran's second-largest city, Isfahan has a major nuclear technology center on its outskirts. The facility includes the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant and the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF), which can convert uranium to uranium hexafluoride, which is then fed into centrifuges. Diplomats claim that Iran stores uranium enriched at Isfahan. There is equipment at Isfahan to make uranium metal, a process that is particularly proliferation-sensitive since it can be used to devise the core of a nuclear bomb. Isfahan will be a new location for 2022, according to the IAEA. It has machines that can make centrifuge components. KHONDAB Iran has a heavy-water reactor that is partially constructed. It was originally named Arak, and it's now called Khondab. Heavy-water reactors are a risk for nuclear proliferation because they produce plutonium easily, which can be used, just like enriched Uranium, to create the core of atom bombs. The 2015 agreement saw construction halted and the core of the reactor removed, then filled with concrete, rendering it useless. The reactor would be redesigned to "minimize the production of Plutonium and not produce weapon-grade Plutonium during normal operation". Iran informed the IAEA it planned to begin operating the reactor by 2026. TEHRAN RESERVE CENTRE The Iranian nuclear research facilities at Tehran include a reactor for research. BUSHEHR The only nuclear power plant in Iran, located on the Gulf Coast, uses Russian fuel, which Russia takes back after it has been used, reducing proliferation risks.
Document summary: Nigeria's Dangote Oil refinery tenders to sell fuel oil
According to a summary shared by a source in the market, Nigeria's Dangote refinery released a tender Tuesday for 128,000 metric tonnes of residual fuel oil to be sold in April.
Summary showed that the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), Dangote refinery, will close its tender on Wednesday, 1200 GMT. It is looking for buyers of 88,000 tons low-sulfur straight run fuel oil, and 40,000 tonnes of slurry for loading between April 10-12.
The refinery didn't immediately respond to our request for comment.
According to IIR, Dangote's 204,000 barrels per day gasoline production unit will be shut down for 30 days to undergo maintenance. The shutdown is tentatively scheduled to begin on June 1.
Straight run fuel oil can be refined into gasoline or diesel by secondary refinery units.
According to Kpler shipping data analytics, Dangote's fuel exports from March to August, 2024 averaged 75,000 barrels per day. However, they dropped to 20,000 barrels per day in September when the company began production of its gasoline-making residue catalytic cracked unit. Enes Tunagur reported; Kirovan Donovan edited.
(source: Reuters)