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The price of oil is expected to fall for the second consecutive week
Early Friday trading saw oil prices fall and they were expected to close lower than last week as the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine deal outweighed concerns about supply disruptions due to a blockade on venezuelan tankers. Brent crude futures were down 9 cents or 0.2% to $59.73 a barge by 0111 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded 16 cents or 0.3% less at $55.99 a barge. Both benchmarks are down over 2% on a weekly basis. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that he believed talks to end the?war? in Ukraine were "getting closer to something". This is ahead of an upcoming U.S.-Russian?officials meeting this weekend. It was not clear, in the case of the second potential geopolitical trigger, how the U.S. could enforce Trump's declaration to blockade oil tankers that enter and leave Venezuela (which?makes 1%?of global supply) under sanctions. The U.S. Coast Guard seized an oil tanker from Venezuela in a historic move last week. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said on Friday that "uncertainty about enforcement details and the optimism of a possible U.S. led Ukraine peace deal (are) easing supply concerns in global markets and reducing geopolitical risks premiums." Analysts say that further measures against Russian oil may pose a greater risk to supply than Trump's Venezuelan?blockade on tankers. According to sources familiar with Venezuelan oil export operations, Venezuela authorized on Thursday two very large crude carriers that were not sanctioned by the country?to sail towards China. Analysts at the Bank of America predict that the lower oil price will reduce the supply of oil, preventing a freefall in prices. Sycamore, IG's analyst, said that a rally above the resistance level of $56.70-$56.90ish could strengthen the argument that the selloff this week to the $54.98 bottom was a false breakdown lower. "Conversely a break under $54.98/90ish will reignite the downside momentum and target the psychological $50.00 threshold." (Reporting and Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Asia stocks rally with Wall St., but prepare for BOJ hike
Asian share markets recovered on Friday, as a turnaround in the?tech sector lifted Wall Street. Investors are now counting down until a possible interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan which could have a major impact on currencies and bonds. The U.S. consumer prices inflation rate dropped to 2.7% in a "shock" move. Analysts cautioned that the data was clearly distorted by the shutdown of the federal government and should not be taken as a fact. The Federal Reserve's pricing has only moved marginally. A rate cut was implied in January at 27%. In March, the price increased to 58% compared to 54% prior. The markets indicate that there is a 90% probability the BOJ will increase its rate by a quarter-point to 0.75% on Friday. Investors bet on a further 1.0% increase in 2026. Any hint of more could offer the much-needed support for the embattled Japanese yen but also put pressure on government bonds. Analysts at CBA wrote in a report that "the policy rate is still stimulatory and there is a good case for further BOJ policy standardisation." The BOJ has set a 2% inflation target for the next two years. Inflation will increase as the yen weakens sharply in the last two months. The latest figures released on Friday show that Japan's core CPI increased at a rate of?3.0% annually in November, which is the same as it was for the previous month. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6%. South Korea rose 1.2%, boosted by the stellar results of chipmaker Micron Technology. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.2%. ECB AND BoE OFFER DISTINCT LEVELS of HAWKISHNESS S&P futures and Nasdaq were flat overnight after the overnight bounce. The bond markets welcomed the U.S. CPI figures with caution, as the 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4,126%. This is a far cry from the recent high of 4,209% that was reached three-and-a half months ago. Japan's 10-year bond yield was 1.980%. This is a new high for the past 18 years. British bonds took a big hit overnight after the Bank of England cut interest rates, as expected, but only with a 5-4 vote. The policymakers have also expressed caution over the pace of future easing. Another cut is not fully priced until June. The European Central Bank's hawkish stance was further accentuated by its decision to keep rates at 2,0 %, and signal a probable?end of the easing cycle. The markets indicate that there is only a small chance of a reduction for the entire year 2026. The central banks of Sweden and Norway also remained unchanged, although the Norwegians left the door open for one or more reductions. Both the pound sterling and the euro briefly spiked, but then quickly retreated. The pound was at $1.3378, while the euro was at $1.1725. The dollar's value against the yen was 155.60, which is still within the range between 154.34 and 156.96. Gold was still stuck at $4.333 per ounce, below its October peak of $ 4,381. Silver has seen a drop in price after its meteoric rise, but palladiums and platinums remain in high demand. The possibility of additional U.S. Sanctions against Russia, and the risks of a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers affecting supply, were the main drivers of the oil prices. Brent crude oil rose by 0.2%, to $62.04 per barrel. U.S. crude oil increased 0.2%, to $58.35 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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Japan's Sumitomo Realty bets on Mumbai serviced apartments and Mumbai by Japan's Sumitomo Realty
Sumitomo Realty and Development in Japan, the third largest developer of Japan, is planning to expand into India using an unusual strategy: "focusing on Mumbai and managing rather than selling apartments," executives said. Japanese developers are expanding their presence in India’s $300 billion property market. Attracted by the rising rents and lower construction costs than in Tokyo, New York, or London, they have chosen to focus on Mumbai. Mitsui, a Japanese company, and Blackstone, a U.S. firm, have both expanded in India by partnering with local developers, or purchasing completed buildings. This is due to the slow process of land acquisition. Sumitomo is focused on Mumbai and opting to build from the ground up. In an interview, Niinomi Masato, General Manager of Sumitomo India's business division said that Mumbai is a city with assets and vitality worth focusing on. Sumitomo called Mumbai the "second growth engine" behind Tokyo, where they?manage 240 buildings. Masato said that Mumbai is less vulnerable to geographical risks, such as earthquakes. These can affect assets and cash flow. MAIN BET ?ON MUMBAI Tomoki Iwata said that Sumitomo India's Goisu Realty unit was looking at other cities, but had not found any suitable sites yet in Delhi, Bengaluru, or Chennai. Sumitomo believes that there is a greater supply of prime locations than in Mumbai where the land shortage creates opportunities for rental growth on a long-term basis. Sumitomo has developed five projects in India - all located in Mumbai. Four of these are in the Bandra Kurla Complex, near the international airport and home to many multinational companies. Iwata stated that these four projects will be completed within five years and cash flow will fund future expansion. He said Sumitomo spent a quarter?of its $6.5 billion India commitment but refused to provide details. Servicing, not selling Rents for premium apartments in India have also increased as the country's wealth has grown. According to Cushman & Wakefield, the average rent in south Mumbai was as high as 730,000 rupies ($8,096) a month this year, which is about 20% more than it was three years ago. Luxury homes are typically sold for millions of dollars by local developers such as Oberoi and Godrej Properties. Masato stated that Sumitomo will manage and rent the apartments in one of its "super high-rise" Mumbai project rather than selling them.
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Michigan approves DTE power deals for data center, adds grid safeguards
Michigan regulators approved Thursday special contracts that DTE Energy?s unit?would supply to a data center in Washtenaw County. However, the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) imposed mandatory additional safeguards to protect residential customers and others from having to pay any costs associated with the development and operation of "the data center". DTE Energy, OpenAI and Related Digital are also required to absorb any costs that they cannot recover from Green Chile Ventures. In the event of an emergency, it is important to update the procedures so that service can be restored before any other customers are affected. The rapid expansion of data centers, especially those that support artificial intelligence, is driving a surge in energy consumption. This puts additional strain on already stretched power grids. Michigan requires DTE?Electric cover any costs incurred by Oracle for its planned 1,383 MW Saline?Township Data Center that are not recovered from Green Chile Ventures LLC. MPSC has ordered DTE to submit a proposal within 90 days for a new rate designed for large customers such as data centers. (Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Putin speaks of war and peace during marathon news conference
Vladimir Putin, Russian president, is expected to send a message to the United States of America and European powers about his desire for peace in Ukraine or more war when he speaks on Friday at a long 'end-of-year' news conference. After eight years of fighting, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 20, 2022. This was the largest confrontation between Moscow, the West and the Cold War. U.S. president Donald Trump has complained repeatedly that ending the Ukraine conflict has been a difficult foreign policy goal of his presidency. Putin, Russia's foremost leader since the last day in 1999, will be leading a news conference with the population and a call-in that is scheduled to start at 0900 GMT this Friday. PUTTIN DUE TAKE DOZENS QUESTIONS Putin answers dozens of questions at the "Results Of The Year" event. He has done this in various formats since 2001. Topics range from his future and price increases to nuclear weapons, and what the Kremlin refers to as "the special military operation" in Ukraine. The COVID test was administered to all attendees. This is still a standard procedure for Putin's meetings, even 73 years later, after the pandemic ended. The question is whether Putin agrees to end the deadliest European war since World War Two. It also depends on the extent of European power's marginalization and the success or failure of a US-brokered peace deal. The Ukraine and its European Allies are concerned that Trump may sell out Ukraine, leaving European powers to pay for a devasted Ukraine in 2025 after Russian forces have taken?12-17 sq km (4.6-6.66 sq miles) of land per day. They are echoing former U.S. president Joe Biden, who said that the Russian invasion is an imperial land grab and Moscow should be punished. This view has been challenged by Trump. Putin sees the war in the West as a turning point in the relationship between the two. He says the West humiliated Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, by expanding NATO and encroaching upon what he believes to be Moscow's sphere. A war ending could help'reconnect' Russia with the United States, which has some of the largest reserves of natural resources in the world. These include oil and gas as well as diamonds and rare Earths. This is important for Russia to focus on its competition with China with whom Putin formed a partnership with "no limits". The continuation of this war will lead to more deaths and drain the economies of Ukraine and Russia, as well as European countries, increasing the likelihood of escalation. U.S. officials claim that Russia and Ukraine has suffered over 2 million casualties since the beginning of the war, including dead and injured. Russia and Ukraine do not provide credible estimates of losses. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams.
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How Trump's Venezuela embargo could put Taiwan at risk
Donald Trump's decision imposing a partial Venezuelan blockade marks a dramatic increase in U.S. political pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. But it could also undermine a key U.S. goal: deterring an eventual Chinese naval encirclement. The U.S. President on Tuesday ordered a "total and complete blockade" against all sanctioned oil tanks entering or leaving Venezuela. This was a move to choke off the main source of revenue for the Maduro regime. The action immediately raised questions about its legal status under international law. Military planners in the Indo-Pacific have feared for years that China could use a blockade of Taiwan's ports to force it to accept Beijing’s rule. Experts say that while China considers Taiwan to be its own territory, it would not rely on international law as a justification for military action in Taiwan Strait. Instead, Beijing could use the U.S. embargo of Venezuela to undermine any American efforts to raise international diplomatic opposition. "If U.S. sanctions change the political outcome in Venezuela, China could justify coercive actions against Taiwan based on alleged security grounds," said Craig Singleton a China specialist at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Washington. He said that while the legal contexts are different, the propaganda opening was real. He added that narrative is also a precedent in international relations, not just law. He said that when Washington uses ambiguous terms, this weakens the ability of its critics to denounce?coercion' elsewhere. The blockade was the latest in a series of military actions by the U.S. that included over two dozen airstrikes on suspected drug boats. This was done to put pressure on Maduro and senior Venezuelan officials who, according to the Trump administration, are linked with drug traffickers. Maduro claims that the U.S. is trying to overthrow him and gain control of the OPEC nation’s oil reserves, which are among the largest in the world. A White House official responded to questions by saying that President Trump was prepared to use all of the American power available to stop drugs flooding our country, and bring those responsible to justice. The official did not address Taiwan. China, the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, has taken a stand in support of Venezuela. It said on Thursday that "it opposes unilateralism and bullying, and supports countries defending their sovereignty and national dignity." CHINA PRACTICES BLOCKADES Beijing has signaled repeatedly that a naval blockade de facto could be the central element in a campaign for control of Taiwan. China's military has been practicing blockade drills around the island more and more in recent years, even though its government denies Beijing's claims of sovereignty. Chinese officials will probably present such a move as an act of domestic law enforcement or quarantine to international audiences. Beijing denies any comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine, which is fighting a Russian invasion. Taiwanese officials, however, have stated that a Chinese blockade would be an act war and would have far-reaching implications for international trade. Washington, which has opposed unilateral changes in the status quo regarding Taiwan for many years, would argue that a Chinese naval encirclement would be akin to a blocking. In its national security strategy, released in early December by the?Trump Administration, deterring a conflict over Taiwan was deemed a top priority because of its strategic location and importance economically. Isaac Kardon is a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who studies China's naval power. He said Beijing would try to stop the U.S. building a coalition against Chinese actions toward Taiwan. China could benefit from international concern about a U.S.-led blockade on Venezuela. Kardon stated that "the U.S. has done a great deal of damage to the normative nature of the rules." This is a serious blow to the credibility and ability of international law to constrain other actors. Kardon stated that the U.S. actions against Venezuelan tankers may open up China's door to similar actions such as intercepting vessels bound for Taiwan carrying vital natural gas supplies. He said, "Everything about this muddies the water." Experts have warned that a prolonged deployment of U.S. Naval assets to the Caribbean could also undermine the military readiness of the United States and its ability respond to a crisis on the Taiwan Strait. 'REALPOLITIK' International law allows for wartime blockades, but only if they are accompanied by strict conditions. Milena Sterio is a maritime expert at the law school of Cleveland State University. She said that a complete U.S. ban on Venezuela would be illegal unless there was clear evidence the U.S. were in an armed conflict with Venezuela. Sterio stated that a U.S. Blockade would make it difficult for us to criticize the Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Sterio said that "the same rules of international laws apply to all countries and it would not be consistent for the U.S. criticize other states for doing what we do." Michael Hunzeker is an expert in Taiwan's deterrence military at George Mason University. He said that he did not believe that Trump's actions will hurt the real effort: building U.S. allies' support for counterblockade efforts during a crisis about Taiwan. Hunzeker explained that any reference to Venezuela by allies in this context would be a rhetorical justification of a realpolitik choice to stay on the sidelines. He said: "I doubt this episode will have a significant impact on how they view these interests." (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Diane Craft and Don Durfee; Additional reporting and editing by Michelle Nichols, Tom Hals and Michael Martina)
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Gold inches down as market digests US CPI data
Gold prices fell on Thursday, as the markets digested U.S. inflation figures that were lower than expected. This reduced the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge. However, support from a higher unemployment rate in November limited further losses. As of 02:26 pm, spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,330.39 per ounce. ET (19:26 GMT). Bullion reached a record-high of $4,381.21 in October 20 and hovered near this level earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures?Settled 0.2% Lower at $4,364.5. "Now that the inflation rate is falling faster than anticipated, it reduces the appeal of purchasing insurance against inflation. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that gold has historically been used as a hedge against inflation. Data showed that U.S. consumer price index rose by 2.7% in November compared to the same month last year. This was below the 3.1% rise forecast by economists surveyed by?. After the data, futures on the federal funds rate factored in an increased likelihood that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates during its meeting in January. Razaqzada said, "It's worth remembering that high inflation has eroded the value of fiat currency over the years." Gold is an asset that does not yield any income, but thrives in low-interest rate environments. It's also reputed to be a hedge against inflation. Gold is in a very positive trend and a breakout to the upside is expected. "I've got upside targets at $4,515.63, and $5,000 is also a valid goal," said Peter Grant. Spot silver fell 1.5% to $65.3/oz after a record high was reached of $66.88 in the previous session. Silver has outperformed the gold market this year. It is up?126% on a year-to date basis, mainly due to investment demand and fears over a shortage. Palladium rose 3.7%, to a record high of $1.708,72, a gain of nearly three years. Platinum rose 1.2%, to $1.922.05, which is a new high. Commerzbank stated in a report that "the wave of price increases has now spread from Silver to Platinum... The platinum price is buoyed up by strong demand coming from China."
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Cannabis stocks rise after Trump signs an order to ease restrictions on marijuana
Stocks of cannabis companies rose Thursday following a?U.S. The U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to loosen federal regulations on marijuana, the largest shift in marijuana laws since 1970. The decision to reclassify marijuana as a less harmful drug does not legalize it, but rather improves the operating environment for businesses by improving capital access, reducing taxes and accelerating research and development. In afternoon trading, U.S. listed shares of Tilray rose over 6%. Aurora Cannabis?rose almost 9%. SNDL rose 6%. And Canopy Growth gained close to 12%. According to senior administration officials, Trump's order "directs" his attorney general to move quickly with reclassifying marijuana. This could result in the psychoactive plant becoming listed along side common painkillers like ketamine, and testosterone as less dangerous drugs. Irwin Simon said, "I don't believe that many shareholders would buy my stock or?a number of other cannabis shares" without rescheduling. This was before the order. Reclassification would move marijuana from Schedule I (which includes substances such as heroin, ecstasy, and peyote) to Schedule III which covers substances that are associated with a moderate-to-low level of dependence. According to reports, Trump is?considering an Medicare pilot program which would give some seniors access CBD. Rearranging Medicare coverage and attracting investments from other investors and financial institutions would be likely to attract investment.
Tinubu wants a $30 billion budget reset in order to stop fiscal years overlapping
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President of Nigeria has asked Parliament to approve a 43.56 trillion Naira (US$29.96 billion), spending plan that repeals and reenacts 2024's budget to?run until December 2025. The goal is to eliminate fiscal cycles that overlapped in recent years and tighten control on public finances.
This move comes after months of criticism from lawmakers about the government's reliance upon?rolling forward capital budgets. As a result, the 2024 capital spending was extended to June 2025 and then December 2025. After years of budget mismanagement, the 'proposal' aims to restore discipline and accountability in Africa’s most populous nation. The lawmakers now want to reset the calendar year cycle in 2026.
In a letter read by Speaker Tajudeen Abbas on the floor of the House of Representatives on ?Wednesday, Tinubu said the proposed repeal-and-reenactment bill would authorise withdrawals from the federal account and allocate ?1.74 trillion naira for statutory transfers, 8.27 trillion naira for debt ?service, 11.27 trillion naira for recurrent spending, and 22.28 trillion naira for capital projects ?under a single framework.
Tinubu stated that the measure would "put an end to running multiple budgets simultaneously"?and improve capital projects execution after repeated rolling over of 2024 expenditure into 2025 along with a separate 54.99 billion naira budget for 2025.
(source: Reuters)