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Oil supply growth set to taper in 2024, Rystad Energy says

Global oil supply growth will likely slow down this year, Rystad Energy said in a report on Monday, with a high possibility of an additional decline in 2025.

The consultancy company mentioned the recent extension of voluntary cuts by the OPEC+, in addition to the group's the same need projection for the outlook.

The total anticipated oil supply growth is now closer to 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, compared to 900,000 bpd at the start of the month, Rystad estimates.

CONTEXT

OPEC+ accepted extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a. year till the end of 2025 and prolong the cuts of 2.2 million. bpd by three months until the end of September.

The group will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million. bpd over the course of a year from October to September 2025.

WHY IT is very important

The total international oil supply development comes close to zero for. this year with the latest assistance from OPEC+, Rystad said,. adding if that materializes, 2024 will be the very first year since. the pandemic-hit 2020 with no oil supply development.

Considering all countries with extended. voluntary cuts, the total amount of oil withheld from the international. market reaches 830,000 bpd in 2024 and 1.04 million bpd in 2025,. according to the report.

United States shale remains a reliable source of growth, though. less elastic to price modifications and more combined after. continued rounds of mergers and acquisitions. This decreases the. short-term upside capacity for a surprise in United States growth, the. report stated.

SECRET ESTIMATES

The marketplace initially responded negatively to newest OPEC+. guidance. However, it's hard to stay entirely bearish. when worldwide oil supply growth is anticipated to decrease in 2024. and reduced production is still a possibility in 2025, said. Patricio Valdivieso, vice president & & international lead of crude. trading analysis at Rystad Energy.

MARKET REACTION

Global standard Brent unrefined futures have actually gained. 7.7% so far this year, according to LSEG information. The U.S. West. Texas Intermediate unrefined futures have actually climbed up 11.5%.

(source: Reuters)