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Canadian oil output stable amidst growing wildfire risk, Goldman Sachs says

Canada's oil production has remained largely stable, however the threat that wildfires position to the market is growing, Goldman Sachs stated on Tuesday.

Rising issues over spreading Canada wildfires have not materialized into severe production disruptions yet, with our Canada production nowcast increasing in July, in line with our expectations, the bank stated in a note.

Nevertheless, the worst of the wildfire season is most likely yet to come, and a third of Alberta wildfires are stressing out of control, threatening 0.4 million barrels per day of oilsands production, Goldman Sachs noted.

Suncor has been reducing production in its over 200kb/d Firebag field for over two weeks, and other manufacturers began to evacuate non-essential workers from the most impacted fields, while keeping production steady up until now.

Canadian authorities released an evacuation order late on Monday for the Town of Jasper and Jasper National Park in the province of Alberta following wild fires.

On the other hand, as the oil market looked through rising tensions in between Israel and Yemen and Biden's exit from the election race, the threat premium stays nearly absolutely no and the typical July Brent cost is at our inventory-based $85/bbl forecast, analysts at Goldman Sachs stated in a note. Both Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell by 39 cents to $ 82.01 a barrel and to $78.01 per barrel respectively by 1135 GMT, as growing expectations of a ceasefire in the war in Gaza weighed on costs.

(source: Reuters)