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Investors weigh US-Iran War as they lower Chicago soy and grains.
Chicago soybean futures fluctuated between 'positive and negative territory' on Monday, and ended the day a tad higher after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a possible delay to possible strikes against Iranian power plants. Trump's remark, which also referred productive talks with Iran sent oil prices tumbling, as investors saw a de-escalation of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which has disrupted energy supplies worldwide. The fall in crude oil prices was halted by the Iranian denial of any talks with Washington. Meanwhile, grain prices recovered. Randy Place, an analyst at Hightower Report, said: "I don't believe the?market feels like it's over yet." The lower crude oil price put pressure on corn and soybean futures prices. The Chicago Board of Trade's most active?soybean contracts settled 2-1/4 cents higher to $11.63-1/4 per bushel. Because of biofuels, such as corn and soybean oil, and because investors used these crops to hedge against inflation during the Iran Crisis, grains are sensitive to crude oil. Corn's losses have been limited by a strong export market and high margins for ethanol. Wheat prices also fell after Trump?s comments on a strike delay, which helped ease fears of a wheat shortage in Middle Eastern and North African nations. Place explained that the market was weakened by this, as it shifted its focus to 'global fundamentals', which were not bullish. Wheat futures are under pressure due to global oversupply, and poor exports. CBOT wheat settled 7-1/2 cents below at $5.87-3/4 a bushel.?Corn settled 6 cents below at $4.59-1/4 a bushel. The traders are also pondering how the rising prices of fuel and fertilisers may affect U.S. farmers’ acreage allocations for corn and soybeans this spring. (Reporting from Heather Schlitz, Chicago; Additional reporting provided by Gus Trompiz, Paris, and Daphne Zhang, Lewis Jackson, Beijing; Editing done by Rashmi, Aich, Simao and Jan Harvey. Rod Nickel).
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Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources says Ukraine has enough diesel to last until April, with volumes forming 70%.
The?energy minister announced on Monday that the Ukrainian diesel market was fully supplied through?March. Supplies for April had already been secured in a quantity of?approximately 70 percent. The?Russian?missile strikes destroyed Ukraine's domestic refinery capacity to the point that it was almost completely dependent on fuel imported from Western, Central and Southern Europe. The government conducts regular coordination meetings with the market participants and relevant officials to avoid any disruptions in?fuel supply. The situation is under control, the ministry stated in a written statement. Enkorr consultants said on Monday that fuel supplies were 'fully adequate until the end March. Daily imports increased by 3%, to almost 17,000 metric tons. They noted that at the current rate of imports, the total monthly volume could reach 522,000 tonnes in March, which is almost the same as March 2025. Enkorr reported that there was no clarity about the situation in April. Suppliers were delaying their decisions to the last minute. The consultancy quoted a trader who said, "Talks continue, but no one has yet named specific volumes, guaranteed or premiums." A second trader said that the Middle East conflict had caused wholesale diesel prices to jump by more than 50% in a little over a month. Serhiy K. Kuyun of A95 Consultancy, the head of their consultancy, said on Facebook that there is no shortage and none is expected. He also added that fuel suppliers had confirmed deliveries for April but prices were not yet set. The deputy minister of Ukraine's economy told? Last week, Ukraine's deputy economy minister told? (Reporting by Pavel Polityuk Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
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Waldir Ayasta, Minister of Energy and Mines, is appointed by the Peruvian President
The Peruvian president Jose Maria Balcazar appointed Waldir Ayasta on Monday as the new minister of Energy and Mines of the country. This follows the resignation of his predecessor Angelo Alfaro on Sunday after he was accused of raping an underage girl in 2000. Ayasta has been sworn in at the Government Palace of Lima by the President and now takes the helm of the Andean nation’s most important economic sector. The mining industry accounts for 60% of Peruvian exports and is the world's 3rd largest copper producer. Alfaro has denied any wrongdoing, but did not contest the claim that the minor had been 16 years old at the time the incident was alleged. On February 24, shortly after Balcazar assumed office, he was appointed as the Andean country's eighth president in the same number of years. This continued a revolving-door of leaders among the South American nation's unpopular politicians. More than half the Peruvian lawmakers are under criminal investigation. Balcazar's 83-year-old appointment was criticized for comments he had made in support of child marriage. He hasn't backed down from those remarks. He was one of the three legislators who abstained in a?2023 vote to ban marriages with girls underage. Denisse Miralles, Balcazar’s Prime Minister, resigned from his position on March 17. This triggered a cabinet reshuffle less than one month before the general elections of April 12. The presidential race is highly fragmented with a large portion of electorate still undecided. Balcazar will hand over the power to a newly elected president on July 28,
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Russia delays changes to fiscal fund following Iran war energy price spike
Increased oil revenue from the Iran War benefits Russia Discussions on budget cuts continue Putin calls for a balanced approach to the use of windfall By Darya Korsunskaya and Elena Fabrichnaya MOSCOW (23 March) - The spike in oil prices caused by the Iran War has allowed the Russian government to delay a plan to increase long-term fiscal reserve, according to three sources who were familiar with the discussions. This will relieve the pressure on short-term finances. The delay reflects the fact that, despite the costs of military action in?Ukraine, and the international sanctions, the Russian 'economy is among the few to have benefited from the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Oil prices have increased to over $100 per barrel. They were around $70 before the start of the war at the end February. Gas prices are also up. According to calculations, the Russian budget's oil and gas revenue is expected to increase by 70% from March to April, to 0.9 trillion Russian roubles. This would be the highest level of monthly revenues since October 2025. Calculations are based on an oil price?set at $75 per barrel for taxation. The CUT-OFF Price Determines How Much Revenue Flows into Fund Russia said that it would lower the price of oil to the "cut-off" before the war in Iran began. The Russian government also claimed that budget cuts were being discussed. The National Wealth Fund receives any revenue above the cut-off price of $59 at this time. Sources who were not authorized to speak in public said that the government will now delay changing the cut-off prices. Sources said the most likely time for the change to occur is in 2027, since the budget law would need to be amended. Changes were expected very soon On February 25, just three days before war broke out, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that changes to the price cutoff would be made within two weeks. However, on Monday, President Vladimir Putin called for a balanced approach to the use of revenues from higher oil prices. Siluanov, after his meeting with Putin Monday, said that the government is considering measures to reduce the budget's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations on the medium-term. The Russian budget is based on a price of oil that is equal to the average price per barrel. The reserve fund will cover the deficit if the average monthly price of oil is lower than this. If the average price of oil is higher than the cut-off, the surplus will be deposited in the reserve fund. Two other sources said they were told by senior government officials the price cut will be the same and the need for spending cuts is also in question. NEW SET OF MACRO-FORECASTS In April, the government will release a set of new macro-forecasts, which include the average oil price expected for this year. These forecasts will serve as a guideline for the budget. The reserve fund is held in foreign currencies, mainly yuan. This has a significant impact on the foreign exchange market of Russia. The government's decision in March to stop forex sales while it deliberated on the new cutoff price caused a 6% drop in the exchange rate of the rouble against the dollar. Elvira Nabiullina of the Central Bank of Russia, after a rate reduction?last weekend, stated that it is too early to assess the impact?of higher oil price on the Russian economy. Nabiullina, along with her first deputy Alexei Zabotkin, said that the budget rule is the best way for Russia to protect itself from external shocks. A person familiar with ongoing discussions stated that, even if Iran's crisis ends suddenly, many Russian policymakers still expect oil prices to remain high for some time. (Writing by Gleb Brynski; Editing by Barbara Lewis).
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Gold remains volatile due to risk-off trading as investors are frightened by the Iran War
Analysts said that gold prices will continue to fluctuate in the short-term as investors cut risk. The Iran war is causing inflation fears, reducing bets for interest rate reductions and impacting the outlook of global growth. They said that in the long run, its role as an asset store will be reasserted. Spot gold has fallen 22% since the start of hostilities on February 28 and 15% in the fourth week. The gold is used to hedge against inflation. However, the increase in bets that rates will stay higher for longer due to the jump in energy prices is a hindrance for bullion. John Reade, senior strategist at the World Gold Council, said that gold should perform well in an environment of stagflation. However, there could be a lot more profit-taking and liquidation before then. The trades of 2025 are now being unwound and we have yet to see the stagflationary deals for 2026. NEEDS FOR LIQUIDITY OUTWEIGH SAFE HAVEN DEMAND Analysts at ANZ say that the one-day gold jump at the beginning of the Iran War followed by a period in which it fell is consistent with other episodes of extreme shocks where the initial demand for safe havens outweighed the liquidity needs. Gold prices initially rose when Russia invaded Ukraine, but fell as inflation rates increased after the invasion. The gold price rally, which took it from $1,650 an ounce in November 20,22 to $5,595 per ounce at a record in January 2026, was driven by central banks and institutional investment, before a wave speculative retail demand, especially in Asia, became part of the market. John Meyer, analyst at SP Angel, said: "The larger picture is unchanged. GOLD BACKED ETFS SEE OUTFLOWS In the early morning hours of Monday, gold reached a four-month low of $4,098 as the stock markets of China, the world's largest buyer of the metal fell by the most since a year. Gold spot prices last fell 2.5% to $4,377 per ounce after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would delay any attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. According to WGC data, the gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) have experienced outflows totaling $7.9 billion or 54.8 tons, mostly in the U.S. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Polina Devlin)
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Oil prices fall, but stocks rise on Trump's Iran pardon
The global stock market rebounded on Monday from its four-month low after the?U.S. Donald Trump said he would order the military not to strike Iranian energy plants or power stations, which will ease fears of an even greater oil shock. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran were in talks about ending the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. However, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf - who was tipped to represent Iran in contact with the U.S. – posted on social media stating that no talks have been held. The dollar dropped against major currencies, and the cost of borrowing by government decreased. The comments buy time. They may need more time to prepare for whatever they are planning to do. David Bianco is Americas chief Investment Officer at DWS. He said, "I don't think this conflict will be resolved overnight." IRANIAN MEDIA 'CONTRADICT TRUMP’S COMMENTS U.S. Crude was last down 8.78% at $89.61 a barrel and Brent fell to $100.42 per barrel, down 9.64% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 655.41 or 1.44% to 46,232.88. The S&P 500 gained 77.50 or 1.19% to 6,583.98. And the Nasdaq Composite jumped 273.61 or 1.26% to 21,921.22. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 4.77 points or 0.49% to 986.08. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.61%. INVESTORS EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN TRIM RATE The 2-year yield in Britain, which has been the hardest hit by the bond sell-off since the beginning of the conflict, fell 17 basis points to 4.409% on Monday. The 10-year yield fell from its peak in 2008. Investors have lowered their expectations of Bank of England rate increases, pricing in only two hikes for this year compared to a Monday's estimate of?more? than three. They also reduced their expectations of the European Central Bank. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was 4.36%, while the yield on the two-year Treasury bond was 2 to 3 basis point lower. The dollar was generally soft. It had traded higher against most currencies before the headline. The euro last rose 0.23% to $1.1597. The market is not saying the worst 'is over', but the odds of the worst manifesting itself in the next couple of days has decreased, said Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, New York.
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Prosecutor at trial claims that a former US congressman secretly advocated for Venezuela
Former U.S. congressman lobbied illegally U.S. officials in order to reduce pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government. A U.S. prosecutor stated this on Monday at the opening of trial which will feature testimony by U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio. In his opening statement at Miami Federal Court, David Rivera's lawyer told jurors that his client worked to remove Maduro and not his government from power. The federal court trial in Miami is based on a contract Rivera had signed with a U.S.-based subsidiary of Venezuelan state owned company for $50 million in 2017. In his opening statement, prosecutor Roger Cruz stated that the trial will showcase evidence on the role played by Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriquez in the alleged "lobbying" effort in the early days of Donald Trump's White House tenure. Trump has praised Rodriguez for taking over Maduro after his capture by U.S. Special Forces on January 3, 2017. Cruz informed jurors Rivera, a Republican Republican who served as southern Florida's representative in the U.S. House of Representatives between 2011 and 2013, had been lobbying U.S. government officials on behalf of Venezuela without registering under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as a foreign agent. Cruz stated that Rivera received a total of $20 million. Cruz said that Rivera and Nuhfer, his co-defendant in the case, had "sold their loyalty." The defendants offered access to United States politicians with whom they have spent decades building relationships. One of the 'U.S. Cruz stated that Rubio was one of the politicians Rivera met as part of his efforts to stave-off U.S. Economic Sanctions on Venezuela. Rubio is a former U.S. Senator and a political ally who Rivera once had, Cruz added. Rubio will be called to the stand as a witness on Tuesday. RIVERA MET WITH LAWMAKERS Rivera and Nuhfer both pleaded no contest to charges that included failing to register as an agent of a foreign country and money laundering. Edward Shohat was Rivera's attorney. He acknowledged that Rivera signed a contract to consult with an affiliate in the United States of Venezuelan oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, to try and resolve a dispute with Exxon Mobil. In his opening statement, he claimed that Rivera didn't have to register with FARA, because he had been paid by an American company and the contract was about business, not politics. Shohat said that Rivera, during meetings with Rubio, and Texas congressman Pete Sessions pushed to?help the Venezuelan Opposition oust Maduro. Shohat stated that "at no point in his life, David Rivera has done or said anything to normalize Nicolas Maduro's relationship with the United States." Sessions' office and the State Department did not respond to requests for comments. Exxon didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Anita Margot Moss is an attorney for?Nuhfer. She said Nuhfer believed in good faith that she didn't have to register as a Foreign Agent. TRUMP RAMPED UP SANCTIONS At ?the time of the alleged lobbying campaign, Venezuela was undergoing an economic crisis, Maduro's government was cracking down on street protests, and his opponents accused him of sidelining the opposition-controlled legislature. U.S. legislators were asking?Trump if he would increase pressure on Maduro. Prosecutors said that to compensate?Rivera Rodriguez ordered U.S. oil refining company Citgo, which is a PDVSA-owned subsidiary, to sign a consulting agreement with a firm owned by the former congressman. Venezuela's Information Ministry, which deals with media inquiries on behalf of the government, has not responded to a comment request. Trump increased sanctions against Venezuela despite the alleged efforts to lobby. (Reporting from Luc Cohen, New York; additional reporting by Humeyra Pauk, Washington; Caracas Newsroom; editing by Noeleen Walder; Nia Williams; Andrea Ricci).
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Analysts say that despite a new loan, Brazil's CSN assets sales are still urgent.
Analysts on Monday said that a $1.2 billion bridge-loan secured by Brazilian steelmaker CSN last week from banks does not ease the group's need to sell assets in the near future and deal with its ballooning debt. Analyst?Pedro?Galdi at AGF said that the company is in a "firefighting mode". He expects that the company will continue to prioritize divestments in order to raise up 18 billion reais (about $3 billion) and reduce its debt. CSN reported recently that this debt had exceeded 40 billion reais. The company signed a binding agreement with a group banks at the end of the week for a credit facility worth $1.2 billion that could increase to $1.4. CSN announced in a statement released over the weekend that it plans to 'use the proceeds to refinance current debt and to pay fees, expenses, and other costs associated with the facility.' The initiative, they added, is part of an broader deleveraging program announced?in January. Igor Guedes is an analyst with Genial Investimentos, a Sao Paulo-based investment firm. He said that the bridge loan was a temporary solution to the company's problems, but it still remains under pressure. CSN's Chief Financial Officer Marco Rabello stated earlier this month that the company expected to complete the sale control of CSN Cimentos and a stake in their future logistics assets company in the third-quarter. The transactions are part a?plan to raise between 15 and 18 billion reais in capital this year to reduce financial risk. Rabello stated that CSN hired Morgan Stanley for advice on the sale control of CSN Cimentos, and Bradesco and Citibank were mandated to provide advice on "the process" involving their logistics company. Three people familiar with negotiations say Morgan Stanley has been in talks with both local and international companies about the sale of cement units, including Brazil's Votorantim, and J&F S.A. which controls JBS and the holding company J&F S.A. Morgan Stanley, Votorantim and J&F have declined to comment. CSN had no immediate comment. (Reporting and additional reporting by Alberto Alerigi Jr.; editing by Andrei Khalip.)
Google's president: US must invest more in energy to power AI
The U.S. might not be scaling up energy supplies quickly enough to "meet" the demand of the artificial intelligence expansion. Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, said this on Monday. She was referring to how much capacity is needed to power AI data centers.
She said that she was concerned about the fact that the United States is not embracing all energy sources to meet the current needs.
Big Tech invests hundreds of billions in?expansion of energy-intensive server warehouses that are used for training and deploying artificial intelligence. The U.S.-based effort has faced challenges including long waiting times to connect to grids, and shortages of gas turbines, among others.
Alphabet, the parent company of Google, recently took a historic step by purchasing a power firm to'serve its growth ambitions. It also invests in advanced nuclear reactors, and contracts with utilities to provide a 'demand response' program that requires data centers to reduce their electricity consumption during peak demand.
In one project, the technology company has contracted with major electricity provider NextEra Energy to restart an Iowa nuclear power plant that had been shut down for its data centres. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul in Houston, Laila Kearney from Houston)
(source: Reuters)