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Analysis-Russian expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Kursk removes obstacle to peace
The ejection by Russia of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area ends the largest incursion on Russian soil since World War Two. It also removes an obstacle to a peaceful settlement that Moscow had been reluctant to reach with so many hostile troops on its territory. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, declared a unilateral ceasefire of three days the day after Moscow announced that the Kursk operation was complete. This was to commemorate the 80th anniversary since the Soviet Union's victory in World War Two. On condition of anonymity, two Russian sources said that the Kremlin would not accept a settlement to the war as long as Ukrainian troops are in Kursk. Ukraine launched its most daring attack on August 6, just over two years after Russia invaded the Kursk area in 2022. Supported by drones and heavy Western weapons, the country rammed through the Russian border. The attack was costly to Kyiv, as the Ukrainian forces claimed almost 1,400 square kilometers of Kursk at its peak. According to Ukrainian open-source maps, Russia now controls an area of Ukraine that is roughly equal in size to the U.S. State of Pennsylvania. Analysts say that the diverting of Kyiv forces to Kursk helped Russia accelerate its advance in eastern Ukraine. "Essentially, Ukraine exchanged territory that it valued the most, its own, for territory it did not value and could not hold forever," said Christopher McCallion. McCallion is a fellow with Defense Priorities in Washington DC, an organization advocating a strong U.S. army with a conservative foreign policy. Ukraine, who has been retreating from Kursk for weeks, but claims to still have some active troops there, believes that the incursion distracted Russia, forcing it to deploy troops elsewhere. Kyiv said that its objectives included securing its border with Sumy and gaining territory for future peace negotiations. Washington's shuttle diplomacy has now pushed these talks forward, but without Ukraine's bargaining chip. There are still major differences that could undermine the peace efforts of President Donald Trump. One source said that if the talks fail, Russian forces would continue to fight. Requests for comment from the Kremlin or Ukraine's general staff were not immediately responded to. Local officials claim that Russia has intensified its attacks on Sumy in recent weeks. This is across the border from Kursk. A Russian missile attack in the capital of Sumy killed 35 people on April 14. Russia claimed it targeted a group of Ukrainian soldiers. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, acknowledged that Kyiv forces are now active in Russia’s Belgorod Region, also near the border. He described it as a move to protect Ukrainian towns. Russia has a few slivers across the border in Kharkiv from Belgorod. According to U.S. proposals for a peace agreement, Ukraine would regain control of all of its territory at Kharkiv while Russia would keep control of just over a fifth. THE BATTLE FOR KURSK The Kremlin was embarrassed by the invasion of Kursk in 1943. This was the scene of the biggest tank battle ever fought in history, between Soviet and Nazi forces. The announcement of victory against Ukrainian troops coincides with the 80th anniversary celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazism on May 9. This gives Putin a victory to show off in front of dignitaries such as Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva from Brazil and China's Xi Jinping. According to Russian sources, despite warnings of an imminent attack, the Russian forces were caught off guard by the Ukrainian assault. Russian officials spoke at the time of chaos, as Russians fled to the east and the Russian border guards and army attempted to combat small, highly mobile Ukrainian unit speeding along country roads in Kursk with Western weapons and vehicles. A minimum of 120,000 people had to be evacuated. Putin, visibly incensed, was seen publicly scolding Alexei Smirnov who, at the time, was the governor of Kursk. He was arrested on April charges of embezzling money intended for border defense. He denies these charges. The size of the Russian military operations was impressive when I visited Kursk, Russia, in March: tanks, missiles systems, and thousands of soldiers on the move, while civilians warned of the danger of drones and missile attacks amid the air attack sirens. North Korean troops and shells helped Russia to fight back against the Russians in Kursk. Putin expressed his gratitude personally to Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea. According to the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian forces lost over 412 tanks and several thousand military vehicles in Kursk. Ukraine says that Russia has suffered over 62,000 deaths and injuries during the operation. Both sides have not released their own numbers of casualties. Both sides dispute these numbers, which are not independent. OFFENSIVE In August, as Ukrainian forces raced to expand their territory at Kursk in Russia, the country sent units into the area to slow down the advance and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching Kurchatov Nuclear Power Station which provides a large portion of the electricity for southern Russia. In less than a month the front was stabilised, and Russia could counterattack. David J. Betz is a professor at King's College London who specializes in war and the modern world. He said that there were likely some Russian generals who were embarrassed by the Ukrainian incursion. He said that Russia has a long history of successfully defending its borders. However, unlike other countries who are able defend themselves using geography, Russia is forced to use human bodies and distance to do so. Russian and Western sources reported that Russian forces gradually began to grind down the Ukrainian defences while Moscow deployed thousands of fibre-optic, or "fibre-optic" drones. These drones are harder to jam than any other drones. According to Ukrainian maps, within three months Russia had reduced the area controlled by Ukraine by more than half. By February 6, this area had been reduced to just 428 square kilometers. Putin, who had been in military fatigues during the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the third anniversary, made a surprise trip to Kursk to order the top brass to continue their advance. He also suggested that Russia create a buffer along the Ukrainian border. In March, Ukraine lost over 300 square kilometers of territory that it held in Kursk. Valery Gerasimov is the top Russian general in charge of the war. He told Putin that Russia cleared Kursk after the last Ukrainian troops were forced out of Gornal, a village near the border. He claimed that Ukraine had deployed 60,000 troops to Kursk during the height of the operations, which undermined its other forces. He also praised the North Korean troops who fought "shoulder-to-shoulder" with their Russian counterparts. Gerasimov said that Russian forces "continued" to carve a buffer zone in accordance with Putin's orders, and had taken over 90 square kilometers of Ukraine's Sumy Region. Ukrainian officials had previously claimed that Russian assault groups were in Sumy. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge)
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BRICS nations discuss a shared response to Trump's trade policies
Foreign Ministers of BRICS Group of Developing Nations met on Monday, to discuss a common defense of the global trading system and coordinate their response to President Donald Trump's barrage of new duties. The group, which was formed by Brazil and Russia but has recently been expanded to include China, South Africa, India and South Africa, is expected to issue a joint statement in Rio de Janeiro criticizing the "unilateral trade measures" of this group. Brazilian Ambassador Mauricio lyrio stated that the ministers were negotiating a statement to reaffirm multilateral trade agreements as the primary axis for action in the trade. "They will reaffirm the criticism they have long held against unilateral measures, regardless of their origin. U.S. Trade Actions pose a serious threat to the expanded BRICS Group, which last year added Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran. China, whose exports were hit with tariffs of 145%, has demanded a more harsh tone in the communiqué. However, a source with knowledge of the negotiations says that the final text is likely to be critical, but not confrontational. Trump has criticized the BRICS as a group, threatening to impose another 100% of tariffs if they move forward with a single currency in place of the dollar for trade relations. Brazil has already abandoned the pursuit of a single currency during its BRICS Presidency, according to a report in February. However, its agenda could pave the path for a less reliance on U.S. dollars in global trade. In preparation for the United Nations Climate Summit Brazil will host in November, BRICS Ministers will also discuss a common position on climate financing, a priority of Brazil's Presidency. The wealthier nations are increasing their pressure on the major developing nations, including China, to finance adaptation and mitigation projects in the poorest nations. "What's not on the agenda" is the review of the countries who have to pay the transitional costs and those that will eventually be able to finance the energy transition themselves. "This distinction is absolutely crucial," said Lyrio. He added that "the financial obligation to fund the fight against climate changes and the energy transformation in developing countries rests with rich countries."
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Bloomberg News reports that Woodside is in talks with Kuwait Petroleum to sell its Louisiana LNG stake.
Bloomberg News reported Monday that Woodside Energy was in discussions with an overseas division of Kuwait Petroleum about selling a stake in their Louisiana liquefied gas plant. The report was based on people familiar with the matter. Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration is also looking at securing LNG from the project. Other companies are interested in both LNG and equity, according to the report. Woodside Energy and Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration did not respond immediately to comments. Woodside, Australia’s largest gas producer, agreed earlier this month to sell a 40 percent stake in its Louisiana Liquefied Natural Gas plant to U.S. Infrastructure Investor Stonepeak for $5.7 Billion. In April, the company also signed a deal to supply 1,000,000 tonnes of LNG annually from this project with German utility Uniper. Woodside acquired Tellurian last year for $1.2 billion to develop the 27,6 million metric ton per year Louisiana LNG Project, formerly known as Driftwood in four phases, to meet the growing demand for natural gas. The first phase will cost approximately $16 billion. Woodside reported that in February it held discussions with potential Louisiana LNG buyers including Tokyo Gas, Japan’s JERA, and Saudi Aramco’s MidOcean Energy.
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US Sanctions Shipping Companies for Delivering Oil and Gas to Houthis
Washington continues to pressure the Iran-backed Houthis over their attacks against Red Sea shipping. On Monday, Washington imposed sanctions on three vessels and owners for delivering gas and oil products to Yemen’s Houthis. Treasury Department released a statement that targeted Marshall Islands registered Zaas Shipping & Trading Co, Great Success Shipping Co and Bagsak Shipping Co as well as Mauritius registered Bagsak Shipping Co. These companies and their cargo vessels were used to deliver oil products and gas to the Houthi controlled port of Ras Isa. Michael Faulkender, Deputy Secretary of Treasury, said: "Today's actions underscore our commitment to disrupt Houthis efforts to fund dangerous and destabilizing attack in the region." Treasury will continue to use its tools and authority to target those that seek to allow the Houthis to exploit Yemenis and continue their violent campaign. Houthi-controlled TV had broadcast a video of the sanctions just hours earlier A U.S. Airstrike in Yemen killed 68 people inside a center of detention for African migrants. In March, the United States designated the Houthis a "foreign terrorist organization," accusing them of threatening American civilians in the Middle East and their personnel as well as other partners in the area and the global maritime trade. The Houthis claim that the attacks on ships are in solidarity with Palestinians living in Gaza. They have disrupted the global economy, increased inflation fears and heightened concerns about the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Since it overthrew the government in 2014, the group controls the majority of Yemen's population, including Sanaa. (Reporting Katharine Jack and Daphne Psaledakis, Editing by Doina Schiacu)
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EU sets duties on Chinese construction machinery
The European Commission announced on Monday that it had imposed import duties up to 66.7% for Chinese machines that lift workers in construction after concluding the producers benefited from unfair subsidies and sold at artificially low price. The Commission stated that the extra duties on Chinese mobile equipment (MAE), will range from 20,6% to 66,7%. It said this to protect the domestic producers of the EU market, which is worth over 1 billion euro ($1.14 billion per year). These tariffs are part of a series EU anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy measures aimed at Chinese imports. This includes a high profile investigation into Chinese electric vehicles that culminated in October last year. The EU executive that conducted the investigation said Chinese MAE manufacturers had benefited from preferential funding, grants and state provision of inputs below market rates. According to the Commission, Chinese producers gained 41% of the market in 2022 from 29% in 2010 and sold their products at a price that was around 20% lower than EU competitors. EU MAE producers Haulotte, Manitou and Zoomlion are French companies. The European Union has imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on nearly 80 Chinese products, from ironing boards to truck tyres. Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop, editing by David Evans.
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Document shows UK's proposal for a statement of shared values between the UK and EU
According to a draft document that was seen by the. The document shared with EU member states in recent days is described as a "geopolitical introduction" to a strategic partnership between Britain, the EU and both sides, which they hope to reach an agreement on at a London summit on May 19. Though it doesn't mention Trump by name, the text contains several elements that are in stark contrast with current U.S. policy. The new partnership is meant to be a signal of a reset in EU-UK relations after Brexit. U.S. proposals to end the war in Ukraine call for Washington's de facto recognition that Russia controls Crimea and other parts of Ukraine. Leading European capitals are opposed to this option. The draft document states: "We reaffirmed that we continue to support Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders." The draft stated that "we confirmed our shared principles for maintaining global economic stability, and our mutual commitment to open and free trade", adding that both sides would continue working on "how we can minimize the impact of fluctuations of the global economic order". The document reiterates the commitment of Britain and EU to multilateralism. It said: "We are committed to achieving the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global temperatures rise to 1.5degC." Reporting by Lili bayer and Andrew Gray, Editing by GV de Clercq & Emelia Sithole Matarise
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China's gold imports through Hong Kong rose by around 42% in March m/m
Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department figures released on Monday showed that China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong rose by 41.9% in March compared to February. The data revealed that China's gold exports to Hong Kong were lower than its net imports in March for the third consecutive month. China is the largest consumer of gold in the world, and its buying activities can have a significant impact on global gold prices. Hong Kong's data might not be a complete view of Chinese gold purchases as it is also imported through Shanghai and Beijing. By the numbers, net imports from Hong Kong into China in March were -4.888 metric tonnes compared to -26.398 tons imported in February. Hong Kong's total imports of gold by the world's largest gold consumer in March were 21.071 tons, up from 14.851 tonnes in February. KEY QUOTES The net import for March was only five tonnes, compared to an average of 15 tonnes per week from January-February. This reflects a gradual improvement in mainland demand," said StoneX analyst Rhona OConnel. The People's Bank of China has reportedly allocated new import quotas for selected international banks in the last few weeks. CONTEXT As a hedge against inflation and global uncertainty, gold has increased by more than 25% by 2025. This is largely due to Trump's tariffs, the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions between the Middle East, Ukraine and the United States, as well as strong central bank purchases and increased investment in gold-backed ETFs. Gold discounts in India reached their highest level in almost nine years last week as record prices discouraged buyers. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Choubey and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru)
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Sinopec, a Chinese company, partners with Saudi Aramco in a $4 billion joint venture
Sinopec, the state-run oil company in China, announced on Monday that it had signed a deal with a Saudi Aramco unit to create a joint venture with a capital of $3.95 billion. Sinopec's unit in Singapore, Aramco Asia Singapore Pte, and Saudi Aramco signed the agreement. (AAS). Sinopec will contribute 7,20 billion yuan, and its unit 14,40 billion yuan respectively. AAS will contribute the remaining 25% of the registered capital. Fujian Sinopec Aramco Refining and Petrochemical Co will be involved in port operations, crude oil transport, and other activities in the Gulei Port Economic Development Zone in Zhangzhou in China's Fujian Province. Sinopec, Saudi Aramco and other Middle Eastern companies began construction of the complex last November as part of their plans to expand downstream business outside of the Kingdom and supply one million barrels of crude oil per day to China to invest in oil-tochemicals. Sinopec reported in a separate announcement on Monday a 27,6% decline in the first-quarter profit based on China Accounting Standard.
China approves the construction of 10 new nuclear units worth $27 billion
The Paper, a government-backed newspaper, reported late Sunday that China's State Council had approved the construction 10 new nuclear power plants. The total cost was estimated at 200 billion yuan (about $27.44 billion).
The pace of growth is expected to continue in the next few years with an average of 10-11 units approved each year between 2022-2024.
Five nuclear power plants are being expanded by the newly approved projects. They all use domestic technology and include Fangchenggang, Sanmen, Haiyang, Xiapu, Chongqing, Xiapu, Shandong and Taishan, Guangdong.
China's nuclear energy association said in their annual white paper released also on Sunday that the country had invested a record amount of 146.9 bn yuan in the engineering and construction of nuclear power plants last year.
According to a white paper, China will have 57 units operating by the end of 2024 with a capacity installed of 60 gigawatts.
The report predicts that by 2030 China will be the world leader in installed nuclear capacity. It is currently ranked third after the U.S., France and Russia.
In 2024, nuclear power accounted for a little over 5% of China’s electricity generation. By 2040, this is expected to increase to 10%.
The white paper stated that China will continue to promote international co-operation, particularly with Belt and Road countries and major nuclear countries, while accelerating self-reliance.
(source: Reuters)