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What will take place when the Ukraine gas transit deal expires?

Ukraine will not extend a. fiveyear deal with Russia's Gazprom on the transit of. Russian gas to Europe when it ends at the end of the year,. prompting recipient nations to seek options.

Because the Ukraine war, Norway has surpassed Russia to end up being. Europe's leading pipeline gas supplier and the EU has actually increased. melted gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. and other. countries.

WHAT IS THE UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT ROUTE?

The Ukraine gas transit path, concurred upon by Moscow and. Kyiv in 2019, allows Russia to export gas to Europe to Ukraine. However, transit volumes dropped 28.5% in 2023, according to. Ukraine's gas pipeline operator.

2 entry points exist: Sokhranivka and Sudzha, however Ukraine. stated force majeure and stopped circulations through Sokhranivka in. 2022. The system connects Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania,. and Moldova.

WHICH NATIONS RECEIVE GAS VIA THE ROUTE?

Most EU countries have lessened their reliance on Russian. gas due to the Ukraine intrusion. Former main recipients of gas. via Ukraine consist of Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, Croatia,. Slovenia, and Moldova. Austria still gets most of its gas. via Ukraine, while others have diversified their sources and. taken steps to decrease demand.

Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, last year. sourced all its gas from European markets, leaving offered gas. from Gazprom for its breakaway eastern area, Transdniestria.

Croatia's imports are now very little and Slovenia's have. dropped to near absolutely no after its main gas supplier Geoplin's. agreement with Gazprom ended last year, a study by the Center on. Global Energy Policy at Columbia University stated.

HOW CAN GAS THROUGH UKRAINE BE REPLACED?

Alternative supply sources exist, EU energy commissioner. Kadri Simson stated an analysis has actually revealed.

Austria can import from Italy and Germany, and its energies. have stated they have actually taken precautionary measures if Russian gas. supply stops.

Hungary has been relying on the TurkStream pipeline, and. Slovenia gets its gas from Algeria and other sources.

Slovak gas supplier SPP stated a consortium of European gas. purchasers could take control of the gas on the Russia-Ukraine border when. the transit contract ends.

Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via. another route, for instance via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or. Hungary. Nevertheless, capability by means of these paths is limited, SPP informed. .

Italy gets the majority of its gas through a path which. helps with Azeri Gas imports and from Algeria.

WHAT HAPPENS TO UKRAINE'S GAS TRANSIT NETWORK?

Ukraine has not imported gas straight from Russia considering that 2015. but uses the transit system to supply homes and companies. The. system preserves pressure levels for both European and domestic. supply.

Ukraine has experience in handling transit shutdowns - such. as those in 2006 and 2009 - and has actually tested the system to make sure. it can function if supply from Russia ceases.

Ukrainian energy officials and market sources have. repeatedly said there is no threat to Ukraine by stopping. transit, saying Ukrainian compressors could pump gas from. storage centers in the west to the east.

JUST HOW MUCH EARNINGS WILL GAZPROM LOSE?

Russia could lose around $4.5 billion annually if exports. halt, based upon an expected typical gas price to Europe of $320. per 1,000 cubic metres in 2025. Its daily exports through Ukraine to. Europe presently stand at more than 40 million cubic metres,. according to Gazprom's information.

WHAT CAN GAZPROM DO WITH THE GAS?

If Ukraine does not extend the offer, Russia prepares to utilize. alternative paths and increase LNG exports. Gazprom aims to. increase gas sales to China.

Gazprom started gas flows to China by means of the Power of Siberia. pipeline in late 2019, aiming to export 38 billion cubic metres. ( bcm) from next year, and eventually to as much as 100 bcm per. year, including 50 bcm through the proposed Power of Siberia 2. pipeline, but negotiations on price and other issues have. stalled.

(source: Reuters)