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Macron visits Greenland as a sign of European resolve following Trump's annexation threat
French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting Greenland this Sunday in a show to Denmark of solidarity, and to send a message of European resolve following the threat by Donald Trump to seize control of the island. Greenland is an autonomous part of Denmark, with the right to declare its independence. Greenland's and Denmark's governments both say that it is not up for sale, and only Greenlanders have the right to decide their own future. Donald Trump said that he wanted the United States take over the strategically located, mineral-rich Arctic island. He hasn't ruled out using force. In March, JDVance, his vice president, visited an American military base on the island. Macron was invited to Greenland by the Prime Ministers of Greenland, and Denmark. He is the first foreign leader since Trump's explicit threat to "get" Greenland. He said that his visit was to stop any "preying" of the territory. France has been with us ever since the first comments about taking our land were made. The support from France is both needed and appreciated," Greenland Prime Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen wrote days before Macron's arrival on Facebook. A Macron adviser told reporters that the trip was a message in and of itself, without mentioning Trump. A poll conducted by IFOP for NYC.eu on Saturday found that 77% of French people and 56% Americans oppose an annexation of Greenland to the U.S., while 43% of French people would support using French military force to stop an invasion. Macron will also visit Nuuk's capital, a hydropower plant funded by the EU, and a glacier. He will also discuss Arctic security with his hosts and the climate change. Greenland, though Denmark is a member of the EU, is not. The French advisor said that the visit would be an opportunity to discuss ways to give Greenland’s association partnership with EU a “new dimension". Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, made several trips to Paris following Trump's threats of seeking French and European support. She has also placed orders for French surface-to air missiles in an effort to shift focus to Copenhagen. Florian Vidal, a think tank in Paris called IFRI, said that Denmark's decision to enlist the EU's sole nuclear power was a way of projecting a hard power against a suddenly aggressive United States. He said that the Trump administration's aggressiveness is a shock, which makes the French vision of Europe more autonomous and reasonable to Denmark. From a Nordic perspective, France is an important military power. Reporting by Michel Rose and Stine Jacobsen, both in Paris; with additional reporting from Andreas Rinke, in Berlin.
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Putin calls Trump and condemns Israel's attacks on Iran.
The Kremlin reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin spent 50 minutes Saturday with U.S. Donald Trump, in which he condemned the Israeli military action against Iran, and expressed concern over the risk of an escalation. "Vladimir Putin has condemned Israel's military action against Iran, and expressed grave concern over a possible escalation in conflict that could have unpredictable consequences on the Middle East as a whole," Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said to reporters. Ushakov said that Trump described the events in the Middle East, as "very alarming". Ushakov reported that the two leaders did not rule out returning to the negotiation track over Iran's nuclear program. Ushakov stated that U.S. negotiators are ready to continue talks with Iranian officials, with Oman acting as a mediator. The latest round scheduled for Sunday, Oman has been cancelled. According to the Kremlin's aide, Putin told Trump Russia was committed to the proposals made by Trump for easing tensions and resolving issues related Iran's nuclear program. Ushakov stated that "the Russian president reminded that before the current increase in tension, our side had proposed tangible steps intended to reach mutually acceptable agreements when talks took place between U.S. representatives and Iranian representatives regarding the Iranian nuclear program." "Russia's approach to a solution and its interest in it remain unchanged, and as Vladimir Putin said, we will act on the basis of this." According to the state news agency RIA, Putin informed the U.S. president that Russia is ready to continue its negotiations with Ukraine after June 22. The Kremlin's aide stated that Trump expressed his desire to "end the Russia-Ukraine crisis as quickly as possible." Ushakov said the presidents also expressed satisfaction at their "personal relations, which allowed them to speak with a businesslike manner and seek solutions to bilateral or international issues, no matter how complex these issues may be." Putin congratulated Trump for his 79th birthday. (Reporting and writing by Lucy Papachristou, Ron Popeski and Nick Zieminski; editing and reviewing by Diane Craft and Nick Zieminski).
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Tennis-Battling mertens saves eleven match points to reach Den Bosch Final
Elise Mertens, the third seeded Belgian, saved 11 match points to beat Ekaterina Alexova (2-6 7-6(7) 6-1), a two-time champion. She will now face Elena-Gabriela Ruse in Saturday's Libema Open Final at Den Bosch. Mertens lost the first set and fell behind 5-3 in the second. She fought back to force the tiebreak, before beating the Russian second seed. Alexandrova was aiming for her third title after winning in 2022 & 2023. Mertens: "I lost track after the first one, I didn't know there were 11. "I was focused on the game and I liked that. I just kept going." "It was difficult, she started well and won 6-2, 5-3." I stayed focused on the game, and I gave it my all. Alexandrova has won the only previous match in Den Bosch in 2019. She has also reached the quarter-finals in the last five editions. Mertens has the opportunity to win her second title in this year after winning in Singapore in February. Mertens will face Romanian qualifier Ruse, who won the second set after losing the first one. She defeated Italian Elisabetta cocciaretto by 2-6 6-4. Mertens won the three previous encounters with Ruse. Trevor Stynes reported the story, Pritha Sakar edited it.
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Russia and Ukraine swap prisoners of war but Moscow receives no war dead.
The Russian Defence Ministry announced that Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners of war (POWs), and Russia delivered the bodies 1200 Ukrainian soldiers who died to Kyiv. The exchanges are part and parcel of the agreements that were reached between the warring parties during their talks in Istanbul earlier this year. Ukraine confirmed earlier this Saturday that it had received the remains of its soldiers who were killed in action. The Russian state media, citing unnamed sources, reported that Moscow has not received any of the war dead it sent to Kyiv. This echoes a statement Russia issued on Friday. It had returned 1,200 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers killed and received none of their own. The Russian Defence Ministry did not specify how many prisoners were exchanged with Ukraine in Saturday's swap, but posted a video of its soldiers cheering and holding Russian flags before boarding a vehicle. Defence Ministry: The Russian soldiers are currently receiving medical treatment in Belarus before being transferred back to Russia.
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Two Australians killed in Bali, Indonesia
Local police reported that an Australian man was killed and another Australian injured in a shooting accident on the Indonesian Island of Bali shortly after midnight Saturday. According to the news website Detik.com, Bali police spokesperson Ariasandy stated that they are searching for two individuals believed to have been involved in a shooting at a villa located in Badung Regency, on the southern part of the island. Detik reported that Zivan R., 32, and Sanar G., 35, were identified only by their first name. Zivan died on the spot, while Sanar was severely injured. He has been transferred to intensive care in a hospital. Ariasandy stated that witnesses had described two people who fled the scene on two motorbikes. He claimed that the two men were heard to speak English with an Australian accent. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Gayatri Sroyo)
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Kazakh agency reports that Rosatom will lead consortium for first nuclear power plant to be built in Kazakhstan
The atomic energy agency of Kazakhstan announced on Saturday that Rosatom, Russia's nuclear state corporation, has been selected to lead a consortium for the construction of the first nuclear plant in Kazakhstan. The state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation as well as French or South Korean companies also submitted proposals. Kazakh Atomic Energy Agency, which was established in March this year, has said that it has reviewed and evaluated various reactor technologies based on criteria such as nuclear plant safety, training of personnel, and other factors. It said that "the agency determined that the most advantageous and optimal proposals for construction of a Nuclear Power Plant in Kazakhstan came from the Russian Company Rosatom." "According to Rosatom's proposal, the work on attracting state-funded export financing from Russia has started." In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Kazakhstani officials to discuss boosting energy and industrial ties. Kazakhstan exports the majority of its oil via Russia but is looking at alternatives. In an article published in the Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, Putin stated that Rosatom is "ready for new large-scale project". Kazakhstan, with a population of 20,000,000, voted to build its first nuclear plant in October. Some Kazakhs were concerned about the involvement of a neighbor that invaded another country, Ukraine, and criticized the plan. (Reporting and writing by Tamara Vaal, Lucy Papachristou and Guy Faulconbridge).
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Edda Wind Welcomes New CSOV to its Fleet
GONDAN Shipbuilders has delivered a newly built Commissioning Service Operations Vessel (CSOV) Austri Enabler to Norwegian shipowner Edda Wind.The Austri Enabler, designed by Norwegian company Salt Ship Design, is part of a new generation of vessels designed to mark a turning point in the offshore wind energy sector.Austri Enabler is the fourth and last vessel in a series of four sister vessels from Gondan and follows Nordri Enabler, Sudri Enabler and Vestri Enabler. It is also the eight vessel that Gondan has delivered to Edda Wind.The vessel has secured a 12-month contract, with options, and will start operations outside U.K. in the third quarter of 2025, Edda Wind said without revealing any additional details.Together with its sister ships, Austri Enabler has been developed with the aim of optimizing operations in offshore wind farms, acting as the main support vessel during the commissioning and maintenance of wind turbines at sea.With a length of 88 meters and a beam of 19.7 meters, the vessel is equipped with cutting-edge technology in both operational efficiency and sustainability.It can accommodate up to 120 people - 97 technicians and 23 crew members - and features the latest solutions in automation and technical assistance, including a 3D-compensated offshore crane, an active gangway with a reach of 30 meters, an integrated elevator with a capacity for 26 people, and a 21-meter-diameter helipad.The ship’s propulsion uses cycloidal propellers driven by permanent magnet motors, combined with liquid hydrogen carrier (LOHC)-ready technology, positioning it as a platform capable of achieving fully emission-free operations.
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As the Middle East erupts, investors choose oil and safe havens over stocks.
U.S. Investors sought refuge on Friday in safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold after oil prices soared following Iran's retaliation against Israel's largest-ever military attack against the major producer of crude. Iran launches airstrikes against Israel After unprecedented Israeli strikes, some fear a regional conflagration. On Friday, explosions were heard in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv - the two largest cities of Israel. Israel had earlier destroyed Iran's vast underground nuclear facility at Natanz and killed top military leaders. Investors believe that the markets will likely survive the latest hostilities, unless Iranian oil installations are attacked or if other countries get involved in the conflict. Crude prices soared up to 14% due to fears of possible disruptions in oil shipments. Oil futures closed the day 7% higher. Jim Baird is the chief investment officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, Southfield, Michigan. Money manager says he expects "a little more flight to quality trade" if stocks continue to fall. This could be beneficial for gold and Treasuries. How long will it last? How intense will the battle be? Will it attract other parties? "From a large-scale economic perspective, it doesn't seem to make a material difference," he said. Gold prices in safe-havens rose by more than 1 percent, while Wall Street's major equity indices fell more than 1 percent. Oil prices were brought into sharp focus by the outbreak of war. Iran is one of the largest crude exporters in the world. It borders the Strait of Hormuz which is a major choke point for crude tankers and through which a fifth of the global crude consumption passes. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliation against Western pressure. Oil prices rose and investors looked for safe havens. U.S. government bonds yields increased on the bets higher energy prices would cause inflation. Brent crude oil, the benchmark for global crude oil prices, is still well below $80 per barrel, despite the recent spike. Irene Tunkel is the Chief U.S. Equity Strategy at BCA Research. She said that she doesn't see any long-term implications for U.S. markets unless oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. This would affect consumer spending. She said this was unlikely, unless the oil infrastructure is destroyed. Or "Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in some way and (the conflict spills) out of Iran. And energy production is shifted to Iraq." The strategist noted that Friday's S&P 500 decline followed a rally from lows in April. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Iran still had time to stop Israel's attacks by negotiating a deal with its nuclear program. Investors were concerned about how central banks might handle interest rates in the event that U.S. consumer costs rise as a result of Trump's tariffs. Jack Janasiewicz is a portfolio manager with Natixis Investment Managers, based in Boston. He said that the possibility of higher inflation due to rising oil prices was "less supportive" of U.S. Government bond prices. He did note that investors usually take geopolitical crisis in stride. "Historically, with these geopolitical issues, the market has a knee-jerk response but the long-term implications tend to fade. Janasiewicz said that history tells us we should look past some of these things. OIL PRICE RALLY Janasiewicz stated that the final gains in oil prices would depend on the length of the war and if U.S. supplies could be increased to cap prices, if there was a disruption in supply. Janasiewicz stated that "from a U.S. standpoint, it's a little more insulated" because domestic producers can certainly increase production. On Friday, the dollar index, the safe-haven asset that has been the focus of risk aversion in recent months, was up 0.5%. Fiona Cincotta, City Index's strategist, said that the dollar was returning to its traditional role as a safe haven. Investors warned that the market may not have been cautious enough despite Wall Street's selling off. James Athey, the manager of Marlborough Fixed Income Fund, said that investors could be tempted to return to riskier assets if tensions don't rise quickly. He said that "in general, the markets tend to pass over these types of events fairly quickly. But of course, therein lies a risk of complacency." He said, "The situation is really tense and fraught. Risk assets are still being priced to perfection."
Europe's inflamed gas stocks drive costs lower: Kemp
Northwest Europe is approximately twothirds of the way through the heating season, with a record volume of gas in storage for the time of year, which is putting downward pressure on gas costs.
Gas inventories throughout the European Union and the United Kingdom stood at 771 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 10, according to data compiled by Gas Facilities Europe (GIE).
Stocks were 238 TWh (+45% or +1.95 standard deviations). above the prior 10-year seasonal average and the surplus had. swelled from 167 TWh (+18% or +1.70 basic discrepancies) at the. start of October.
As an outcome, storage centers were still 67% full compared. with a ten-year seasonal average of 49% ( Aggregated gas storage. stock, GIE, Feb. 13).
Futures costs have currently fallen dramatically, particularly for. neighboring months, to encourage more intake before winter season ends. and flush out a few of the excess stocks.
MILD WINTER SEASON
At Frankfurt in Germany, two-thirds of the heating degree. days each winter take place on average on or before Feb. 10.
With the heating season entering its final third, it is very. most likely stocks will end the deficiency season at or near to a. record high.
Based on the behaviour of stocks over the last 10. years, stocks are on course to end winter season 2023/24 at 628 TWh,. which would be the second greatest on record after 629 TWh at the. end of winter season 2022/23.
The forecasted carryout has increased from 554 TWh on Oct. 1,. as an outcome of warmer than average temperatures and the. continued effect of high rates reducing usage by. market and families.
Temperatures at Frankfurt were above the long-lasting average. on 94 out of 133 days between Oct. 1 and Feb. 10.
Temperatures have actually been above average monthly up until now this. winter however particularly in October (2.5 Celsius) higher than. normal) and December (+2.8 C).
The total number of heating degree days because the start of. the heating year has been 21% lower than usual at 1,133 compared. with a long-lasting average of 1,441.
Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and rates
Offshore winds were more powerful than the seasonal average in. both December and January, boosting electricity production from. wind farms.
The windy and mainly mild weather condition has cut direct gas. consumption by homes and in other buildings in addition to by. power generators.
At the exact same time, industrial intake has actually been suppressed by. a combination of plant shutdowns triggered by high fuel rates and. a slump in business cycle.
Germany's energy-intensive markets (consisting of iron and. steel, ceramics, glass, fertilisers and chemicals) reported. production was down by more than 22% in December 2023 compared. with the exact same month 2 years earlier.
The European Union's seven biggest gas-consuming nations. ( Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and Poland). reported below-average usage monthly in 2023.
For the year as an entire, total consumption in the seven. major consuming nations was down by 7% compared with 2022 and. 19% compared to 2021.
EXCESS STOCKS
Storage websites across the European Union and UK. are on track to be almost 55% full at the end of winter 2023/24. ( with a maximum likely variety from 44% to 61%).
Temperatures are predicted to remain above normal throughout the. European Union and UK through completion of February. according to the European Centre for Medium Variety Weather. Projections.
The seasonal gas storage surplus is likely to continue. swelling with storage likely to complete the winter season almost. 60% full.
With a lot gas rollovered there will not be much less. storage space than usual to absorb more during the summer season refill. season in 2024.
COST SLIDE
Prices for gas to be provided in March 2024 have actually fallen to. an average of 30 euros ($ 32.15) per megawatt-hour so far in. February from 52 euros in October.
Rates for March 2024 (the last complete winter month) are. trading below prices for April 2024 (the first spring month) to. encourage more usage and purge some excess stocks.
As an outcome, the end-of-winter calendar spread from March to. April 2024 remains in a typical contango of 0.22 euro cents so far. in February below an average backwardation of 1.44 euros in. October.
Front-month rates of 28 euros in February are in the 55th. percentile for all months given that the start of the century, as soon as. changed for inflation.
Real front-month futures prices have actually pulled back from 47 euros. ( 88th percentile) in October 2023 and a record 251 euros in. August 2022.
Most energy-intensive industrial consumers purchase gas on the. forward market however here too costs have actually pulled back to motivate. more use.
The calendar strip for the year-ahead (in this circumstances. purchases over the course of 2025) has actually averaged 33 euros up until now. in 2024 down from 52 euros in 2023 and 121 euros in 2022.
After changing for inflation, year-ahead costs are simply 5. euros (21%) above the average for the ten years before Russia's. invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Area and forward rates are most likely to remain under downward. pressure till the storage surplus stabilises and leaves enough. space to soak up excess seasonal gas production over the summer season of. 2024.
Related columns:
- Brazil's hydro power contributes to worldwide gas surplus (February. 9, 2024)
- Europe's gas cost falls to motivate more industrial usage. ( January 4, 2024)
- Record warmth leaves world with too much gas (December 15,. 2023)
- Europe's energy crisis is over (November 28, 2023)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)