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Oil prices continue to rise as US-Iran ceasefire ends
The bond yields rose on Tuesday, reaching their highest level in decades. Oil prices were up for a third consecutive day. Stocks in Asia were under pressure as the U.S./Iran truce ended and Tehran warned of a "fully offensive military posture". The yield of the 30-year Treasury Bond in the United States rose by 1.6 basis points, reaching its highest intraday level since almost 20 years. The 10-year counterpart rose 1.8 basis points to 4.7399%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Bank, Singapore. She said that if this trend continues, it will have a significant impact on the financial market, increasing the hurdle rates for stocks and tightening the financial conditions. This would put pressure on companies with leverage and governments. "Asia has already started to show some of the spillover." S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, while MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan dropped 0.8%. This reversed early gains as stocks in South Korea and Taiwan weighed down on the benchmark. South Korea's KOSPI reversed a gain of over 3% after the Seoul market returned from a holiday. The Nikkei fell 2.1%. Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $91.26 per barrel as the rally in oil prices continued for a third day. The yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond rose by 1.5 basis points to 2.935%. This is a record high for the past three decades. Masahiko loo, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Investment Management, Tokyo, said that the pressure on bond markets felt more like a "buyers' strike" than a "sellers' panic". Markets are rediscovering the term premium as fiscal deficits, increased bond supply and AI-driven capital expenditure all compete for capital. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% overnight on Wall Street while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3% as traders reduced bets that the Fed would soon raise interest rates. Analysts questioned why the rise in bond yields hadn't led the U.S. President to back down on his stance against the Iran War. "Typically, moves over 4.65% in the U.S. 10 year?have been accompanied by some soothing remarks from the Trump Administration, usually centred around an imminent'resolution' to the war against Iran," ING analyst wrote in a report. They added, "This time we don't hear the same." "In reality, the latest indications point to no imminent resolution as the shaky sixty-day truce has come to an end." The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, rose 0.1% to 99.65. This is a slight improvement from its two-month low. Gold fell 0.6% to $4,389.44 and ended two days of gains. Bitcoin was down by 0.3% to $64,150.36 while ether fell 0.6% to $1,893.16. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Clarence Fernandez, Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sonali Paul)
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Gold falls on higher oil and Treasury yields; Fed minutes are in focus
Gold prices fell on Tuesday due to?higher Treasury rates and oil prices?. Traders were also waiting for the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting in July for clues about the future interest rate outlook. As of 0624 GMT spot gold fell 0.4%, to $4397.42 an ounce. U.S. futures for delivery in December dropped 0.5%, to $4452.90. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes extended gains and raised the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold. Prices of oil?increased after Iran announced it would adopt a 'fully offensive' military posture following a breakdown in negotiations to end the war with the United States. Washington also ruled out the extension of a temporary ceasefire. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that oil prices will continue to be one of the key factors keeping gold under pressure. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain and the price of oil has been rising. The expectations of traders around the Fed's policy rates will be crucial for gold. Kumari also said that technical levels would be a key factor. Energy prices that are higher tend to increase inflationary fears, and this in turn can lead to expectations of higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, rising interest rates can reduce the appeal of bullion. After unexpected job losses, lower than expected consumer price inflation, and weaker retail sales, the market's pricing for a quarter-point increase in September has shifted to "nearly 65% chance" of a "hold". Investors will also be awaiting the minutes of Fed's latest policy meeting. The release is scheduled for Wednesday. According to Wang 'Tao, technical analyst, spot gold could test support at $4381. A break below this level would open up the way to the $4320-$4351 range. Silver fell 0.7% per ounce to $65.32, platinum dropped 0.6% to 1,759.63, and palladium was down 0.6% at $1,325.47. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Sherry Jacob Phillips and Ashitha Mitra from Bengaluru)
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BHP and Port Hedland Unions fail to achieve wage agreement; talks will resume on August 25,
The Combined BHP Ports Unions announced on Tuesday that it was unable to reach an agreement with 'BHP regarding a wage agreement for its Port Hedland operation in Western Australia. Both sides are expected to resume discussions on August 25, The company spent months at the table with unions that represent around 450 maintenance and operators workers to negotiate a new wage deal. BHP has more than 800 employees at the port. The union stated that BHP's proposal "did not adequately address the concerns of those whose hardwork generated this $13 billion profit", adding that the workers would consult their elected representatives to discuss options, including counter-offers. BHP's spokesperson said that the company is "committed to bargaining 'in good faith' and believes all parties engaging via the Commission are the best way to reach a fair & reasonable agreement." BHP's spokesperson said that it has offered an 16% increase in pay for the majority of port workers over the four-year period of the proposed agreement, plus some increases to allowances. BHP announced its highest ever annual dividend and reported earnings for the full year of 13.20 billion dollars, which was higher than expected. BHP workers in Port Hedland (the world's biggest iron ore export hub) staged their second planned strike earlier this month as part of the largest industrial action? at the site for a quarter-century. Around 150 workers participated in the two-day striking action on August 8-9 at the port. The port ships approximately $80 million worth iron ore every day. BHP CEO Brandon Craig said that he didn't expect the industrial action would affect the performance of the company. The unions claimed that?workers wanted enforceable wage protections and conditions. Workers claim that the extreme heat and long hours, as well as time away from their families, mean they shouldn't be charged lower rates than city workers. According to a report by the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, mining workers are among the best-paid in Australia. Resources workers in the Pilbara region will earn an average of A$191,000 in 2023-24.
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Andy Home: ROI-China eases Iran War Aluminium Shock, but at a Cost
China is now a major swing supplier of aluminum to Western markets that are reeling due to the Iran War's impact on production in the Gulf. The world's largest aluminium producer, China, has increased exports of metals and alloys as well as semi-manufactured goods (semis) to help cushion the impact in the global supply chain. The timing is fortunate from a?China perspective. The?national?production has reached record highs, despite a stuttering growth in domestic demand. While?China's imports have temporarily relieved the market, they may not be the best solution for the long-term. TAX GAP: MIND THE TAX GLOBAL Tax code is the primary factor that determines the composition of China's aluminum export flows. The primary metal is subject to a 30% tax on exports, while alloys and semis are exempt. The fact that the bulk of China's exports are alloys and products like bar, rod, and tube should not be a surprise. It's not that primary metal exports haven't responded. The first-half volume?rose 32% on an annual basis to 38,400 tons. However, the majority of this metal likely is Western aluminium that has been stored in bonded storage and is now being rerouted back to Western markets. In January-June, China "exported", 9,700 tons to the U.S. but U.S. Customs only counted 70 tons in Chinese imports during the same period. The exports of alloy have grown faster and nearly doubled to 238,500 tonnes in the first six months of 2026. In fact, China became a net alloy exporter in June for first time since 2019. China also produced an additional 500,000 tons in semis. The country's total volume was up 18% on a year-on-year basis, at 3.2 millions?tons, from January to June. The pace of shipments continues to accelerate. The 695,000-ton total for June was a monthly record. DISPLACEMENT - These products can't replace the metals and alloys lost in the Gulf. They 'act to suppress the demand for unwrought steel by substituting it further up the processing chain. The rub is in the details. This has led to a shift of manufacturing from other countries to China. China's semis are a source of controversy for Western policymakers, and many countries have responded with anti-dumping duties on a variety of products. Beijing has removed the 13% VAT export rebate for products in December 2024, partly to address these concerns. Last year, exports dropped 18% to 890 000 tons as Chinese processors shifted to the domestic market. The Iran war, however, has changed the dynamic once again. It has reinvigorated outbound flows due to a combination of a structurally stressed Western Supply Chain and a lax internal market. Cost of Comfort Citi analysts claim that the Chinese demand for aluminium has flattened in the first half 2026. The end-use tracker of the bank fell by 0.4% year-on-year due to weakness in the traditional end-use sector, particularly construction. International Aluminium Institute reports that primary aluminium production grew 2.2% in the same time period. The ?country's smelters are now operating close ?to or even slightly above Beijing's mandated 45-million-ton-per-year capacity cap. Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, although they have fallen in recent weeks, still remain higher than London Metal Exchange inventories of 358,000 tonnes, which includes metal stored 'off-warrant. China has the ability to keep exports high for some time. The LME market has been reassured by this, as?aluminium is no longer paying the war premium. The price of aluminum has dropped from $3,787.50 a ton, which was a four-year-high at the beginning of June, to $3,270.00. This is only $100 higher than it was on February 28, before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran. The longer it takes the West to balance its economy with Chinese products, the higher the long-term costs for Western semi-finished product manufacturers. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Russell: Divergent demand factors are driving China's steel production.
China's steel production dropped to its lowest level this year in the month of July, which fits with the narrative that China is struggling to maintain growth momentum. Steel demand is 'uneven across the economy,' as per usual. The world's biggest producer of industrial metal saw its steel output drop to 76.93 metric tons in July. This is a 3.6% decrease from the same period in 2025. It was also the lowest July since 2017. China produced 577.04 millions tons of steel in the first seven months, a 3.1% decrease from the same period last year, according to data released by the government on Monday. The market is always looking for the downside, and in the case of steel, this is the construction industry, which is still plagued by overcapacity and weak housing prices, as well as reluctant buyers. Conditions are important because construction accounts for about a third China's demand for steel. In July, new home prices were down 0.1% from the month before and 3.2% from a year ago. The picture is not as bleak if you look at the other two-thirds. Exports are the main focus of vehicle manufacturing. Exports are booming, despite a slowdown in domestic sales, which has been a trend for the past 10 months. July's exports of 1.043 millions units were up by 81.3% compared to?the same period in 2025. This is also the second consecutive month that shipments exceeded 1 million. China's exports have generally held up despite the economic uncertainty caused by the U.S. War against Iran and tariffs imposed?by the administration of President Donald Trump. In July, exports in U.S. dollars rose by 23.9% compared to the previous year. This was mainly due to shipments of technology and vehicles. China prioritizes technology industries, such as toys and white goods, over traditional manufacturing industries like cars. Overall, China's growth path is becoming more diverse. This will make the outlook for steel more difficult. EXPORTS EASE Exports have been a bright spot for the industry, but they can't be relied on as a constant source of growth in demand, as the 4% drop in steel shipments during the first seven month of the year, to 64.99 millions tons, shows. The steel industry will likely have to either hope for a stronger stimulus from Beijing in order to spur a recovery of construction or rationalise its capacity. Steel mills have already struggled to stay afloat. According to data from MySteel, only one-third were profitable by the end of July. This is down from about half at the beginning of June. Steel inventories have also reached high levels, as reported by SteelHome. At 5,07 million tons during the week ending August 14, this is up from the low of 4,67 million at mid-June, and higher than the 4,11 million for the same week 2025. During the peak construction period, which lasts from September until winter begins, steel inventories usually increase until September. Iron ore prices and imports have not yet reflected the struggles of the steel industry. The key raw material is showing a stable to slightly better picture. China imports 736.84 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in the first seven month of this year, an increase of 6% over the same period of 2025. Kpler estimates August imports at 111.16 millions tons, up from July's official number of 108.08million. Since June, iron ore prices are also largely stable between $93-$100 per ton. The?Singapore Exchange ended Monday at $95.10. The iron ore prices are largely a function of the available supply. And the recent steady history shows that the new Simandou Mine in Guinea has a long way to go before it reaches its 120 million tons per year capacity. China's imports of Guinean gold were only 2.1 million tonnes in July. However, as Simandou increases production this could increase. This will lead to a drop in prices because top producers Australia and Brazil may be forced to compete. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Climate damage: The next blow to Europe's finances
The public purse will be liable for the damages caused by Europe's volatile weather. Since the majority of these economic losses are not insured, they will fall on the government unless urgent action is taken. The wildfires that raged in the southwest of Europe this year, and the severe floods that struck Spain in 2024 as well as?Germany in 2021 and its neighbors show that climate damage is adding to a long list of financial strains that include?higher?defence expenditures and increasing costs associated with aging populations. Federico Barriga Salazar, Fitch's head of Western Europe sovereign rating, explained that catastrophes are becoming more frequent. Previously, they were viewed as expensive budget one-offs, rather than a regular expenditure. He said that if a government was already fiscally conservative, then it would have to make some trade-offs in terms of other expenditures. Although the current fiscal impact is small, it is widely accepted that the situation will worsen in the future. This is because the region is on the fastest-warming continent of the world. According to the European Environment Agency, extreme weather and climate events caused an estimated EUR822 billion ($953billion) in economic losses in the European Union from 1980-2024. A quarter of this damage was inflicted just in the last four year. The average public deficit in the eurozone is currently around 3%. Barriga-Salazar quoted estimates that the Spanish floods of 2024 -- Europe's most severe flooding event in 50 years -- would require reconstruction costs of 0.7% of GDP from 2024-2026. The EU estimates that only one quarter of climate-related catastrophe losses in the EU are insured, and in some countries, coverage is as low as 5%. Many fear that insurance coverage as a percentage of total costs will continue to decrease as extreme weather events become more frequent. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton's head of European Fixed Income, said: "I think that this simply means that the more risks you have, the less they will be insured." "This is an important issue and will affect some countries by 1%-2% of their GDP." The economic?think tank Bruegel calculated the majority of damage in 2021 would be covered by insurance in Belgium but that in Germany, due to the low insurance coverage, it would have been necessary to use public funds worth EUR30 billion. ADVANCED AND SHARE RISKS The European Union is due to publish proposals on climate resilience and risk-management this autumn. Attention has been focused on potential solutions. Greece, which is heavily dependent on tourism and is therefore at risk from heatwaves and fires, is exploring ways to increase insurance coverage and improve the infrastructure of tourist hotspots. Portugal announced plans for mandatory home insurance, backed by an earthquake and natural disaster disaster fund as well as a solidarity mechanism that will guarantee universal access. This follows the huge floods of early 2026. Some may turn to 'catastrophe bond' investments, which offer handsome returns, but can also result in the loss of part or all their principal, if an event such as a tornado or earthquake occurs. Zahn, a Franklin Templeton analyst, noted that this gamble could be expensive for the sovereign: "If it happens, the payoff is immediate." You could have five years without anything, but you would only pay 8% per annum. Heather Grabbe, Senior Fellow at Bruegel said that governments should put in place more systematic arrangements than emergency?spending which could create a perverse 'incentive' for households and business to not take out insurance. Grabbe stated that all governments in Europe must assess their risk and develop comprehensive plans for reducing future damages through investments, as well pooling risks across the borders. Many studies show that early investments to make economies more resilient to climate change will save money over time. This can help avoid what an Oxford University 2025 study called the "adaptation trap", in which repeated climate disasters increase debt, leaving less money available for protection measures. The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez argued that investments in green technologies worth 0.1% GDP could help prevent economic losses of eight times this amount and tax revenue losses three times as large. The ECB proposed a?EU joint public-private reinsurance system pooling private risk from natural disasters. This scheme is backed by a?EU fund for public catastrophe financing. The question is whether the 'heatwaves' of this summer will inspire the political will for governments and the EU to shoulder some of the initial costs of such an action. According to a spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU executive is looking at ways to close the gap in climate insurance protection as part of a set of measures that will be adopted before the end of this year.
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The planned Indonesian commodity exchange is likely to include palm oil, nickel and coal
A presidential spokesperson revealed that the planned Indonesian exchange for "minerals and strategic 'commodities'" would likely include palm oil and coal. The government is preparing to launch the bourse on January 1. The plan was announced by President Prabowo in his budget speech for 2027 on Friday. He said that Indonesia aimed to establish its own benchmark price for many?of its key commodities. This was his latest attempt to use?the vast reserves of natural resource to boost the country's growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal, nickel, and palm oil products. It's also a major producer of coffee beans, copper, tin, and bauxite. On Monday, the presidential spokesperson Prasetyo hadi informed reporters that the government was currently working out the details of the plan. This includes the commodities to be traded at the exchange. He said: "Certainly, it will cover commodities such as CPO, nickel, and coal, which are our primary products." Friderica Widyasari dewi, the chief of OJK's Financial Services Authority, told reporters that rules would be introduced for the new bourse on September?17. She said that the OJK will have rules for a phased transition to the new bourse. A separate presidential decree will list the commodities which will trade at the bourse.
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Gold falls on higher oil and Treasury yields; Fed minutes are in focus
The gold price was 'under pressure' on Tuesday due to a rise in oil prices and higher treasury yields. Traders were also waiting for the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting held in July for any clues about the future interest rate outlook. As of 0423 GMT spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,391.14 an ounce. U.S. futures for December delivery were down 0.6% at $4,446.70. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased, increasing?the cost of non-yielding gold. The oil prices rose after Iran announced that it would "shift to a fully offensive" military position following the failure of negotiations to reach a permanent settlement to the war with the United States. Washington also ruled out the extension of a temporary ceasefire. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that oil?prices would continue to be one of 'the main factors' keeping gold under pressure if the Middle East situation continues to remain uncertain. The expectations of traders around the Fed's policy rates will be crucial for gold. Kumari also said that technical levels would be important. Energy prices that are higher tend to increase inflationary fears and expectations for higher interest rates from the Fed. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but higher interest rates tend to reduce its appeal. Market pricing for a quarter-point hike in September has flipped from a 65% chance to "hold" due to unexpected job losses, lower than expected consumer price inflation, and weaker retails sales. Investors are also waiting for the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. According to technical analyst Wang Tao, spot gold could test support at $4381. A break below this level?could lead to the $4320 to $4351 range. Silver fell 1% per ounce to $65.11, platinum dropped 1.2% to 1,748.56, and palladium was down 1.2% at $1,317.01.
The planned Indonesian commodity exchange is likely to include palm oil, nickel and coal
A?presidential spokesman said that the planned Indonesian exchange for "minerals and?strategic commodity" would likely include palm oil and nickel, as the government prepares to launch the bourse at?January 1st. The plan was announced by President Prabowo during his?proposal for the 2027 budget speech on Friday. He said that Indonesia's goal was to establish its own benchmark price for many key commodities. Prabowo's latest effort to use the vast natural resource reserves to boost the economy is to create an exchange. He announced policies to centralise commodity imports in May.
Southeast Asia is home to the largest economy in the world. It's also a major exporter of thermal coal, nickel, coffee beans, and other commodities like bauxite and copper.
On Monday, the day after Indonesia celebrated its Independence Day, Presidential spokesperson Prasetyo hadi told journalists that the government was currently working out the details of the plan. This includes the type of commodities to be traded at the exchange.
He said: "Certainly, it will cover commodities that are primary products of ours, such as CPO, nickel, and coal."
Reporters were told by Friderica Widyasari, the chief of OJK's Financial Services Authority, that rules will be introduced for the bourse before September 17.
She said that the OJK regulations will include a phased transition for trades to the new exchange. A separate presidential decree, however, will list the commodities which will be traded on the bourse. Indonesian Nickel Miners Association welcomed the plans, as they have been advocating for a mineral exchange. In a Tuesday statement, the association's chairperson Nanan Soekarna' said that the announcement reflected the government's recognition that Indonesia no longer should be the price taker of commodities it supplies?in large volumes to global market. The association said the exchange would provide a more transparent price that reflects actual production levels in major?production centers. Meidy Katrin Lengkey, secretary general of the association, said: "We stress that the success will be determined by the integrity of the data, the clarity in governance and the participation of national miners right from the start, not how quickly features are launched." Indonesia already has a 'commodity exchange' for palm oil, some commodities and tin. Tin exports must go through the local exchange. However, trade at the palm oil bourse is limited. Reporting by Fransiska Naangoy, Bernadette Cristina, Stefanno Sulaiman, Editing by David Stanway
(source: Reuters)