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As the AI rally cools, Indonesian stocks that have been beaten down feel the love.
Some investors are buying back the laggards as big investors start to sell and Indonesia's battered, unloved stock markets is gaining some love. Jakarta's stock market has been Asia's worst performing'major' stock market for this year. It is down by 28%. Investors have been looking at markets with less of a focus on AI. David Chao is the Asia-Pacific Global Market Strategist at Invesco, based in Singapore. He said: "We have been buying Indonesia and taking a profit in South Korea." "Indonesia remains the most overlooked macro-growth story." BARGAIN HUNTERS ARE SEEKING VALUE AS SENTIMENTS CHANGE Although still cautious, the sentiment is growing that it may not be as bad as it seems for Indonesian markets. This year there were more than $4 billion of foreign outflows due to MSCI transparency and fiscal concerns. Aninda M. Mitra, BNY Investments' head of Asia macro- and investment strategy, said: "I think a lot is already in the price on the equity side." Mitra stated that, despite the concerns about the pending MSCI decision, if the price multiples continue to fall and the rupiah stabilizes, "then there is a good case to make to begin adding selectively." Last month, Allan Gray, an asset manager, made his first investment in Indonesia, investing in Indofood Sukses Makmur - the holding company that owns the dominant instant noodle maker in the country. According to our estimates, INDF is trading at just over five times earnings. We believe this is a fair price for a consumer-facing, dominant business that generates cash. Investors also prefer banking and commodity firms, with Citi choosing Bank Central Asia, Vale Indonesia Alamtri Minerals, and Amman Mineral International. The Jakarta benchmark index has risen by more than 10% in July, while the tech-heavy indices have fallen sharply. This suggests that some investors may be starting to shift their focus into markets with lower returns. The rebound came despite the fact that there was little improvement to the concerns which sparked this year's selling, such as questions about Indonesia's fiscal policy and uncertainties surrounding MSCI's evaluation. MSCI NOVEMBER DEATHLINE THE NEXT CATALYST Indonesia retained its emerging markets status. Most analysts expect MSCI to confirm that classification in November, after it has extended its review to include a?review of the impact of reforms implemented by Jakarta regulators earlier this year. S&P helped calm investors' nerves by reaffirming Indonesia’s sovereign rating last week with a stable outlook. Citi said Indonesia was the most popular country in client meetings held by the bank earlier this month in Hong Kong and Thailand. Not everyone is convinced that an AI-driven rally cooling will provide a lasting support for Indonesian assets. Indonesia is not the only market that has recovered, as global investors have also returned to Indian and Chinese stocks. Investors have lost confidence in the welfare policies of President Prabowo Subito, as a result of fears about worsening fiscal conditions. The?rupiah has fallen nearly 8% so far this year and is at record lows. The fact that Iran is a net importer of oil has heightened concerns. Arthur Budaghyan is the chief emerging markets and China Strategist at BCA Research. The bar has been raised for these portfolios in order to allocate more capital and upgrade Indonesia. Even so, foreign investors have opted to retreat gradually rather than in a mass exodus. Copley Fund Research shows that more than half of the active fund managers they track remain overweight on Indonesia, even though the percentage of funds invested there has fallen to 80.45% - a 15 year low. The research firm stated that "the structural case for Indonesia" has not vanished. The Indonesian market is not overcrowded in either direction. It is arguably more expensive to be wrong about a recovery than it is to continue being patient. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in Singapore, Ankur Banerjee)
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Stocks drop as oil prices rise; Iran tensions and earnings are in focus
Investors were cautious on Monday, as they awaited earnings from high-profile U.S. firms this week and developments in the U.S./Iran conflict. Oil prices ?gained. Yemen's Houthis, who are allied with Iran, said that they would impose an naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The announcement came despite indications that Washington and Tehran want to resume diplomatic efforts to stop a spiraling attack. Brent crude futures rose by around 1.3%, settling at $89.22 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude climbed 0.9%, settling at $83.23, after reaching its highest level in June at $85.39. Oil prices are generally a negative factor for stocks, as they raise costs for both consumers and businesses. This week, several major U.S. firms like Intel and Alphabet will report their earnings. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. He said that earnings are beginning to flow and this will provide a cushion for markets. He also said that chipmaker shares had recovered some of the recent sharp losses. The semiconductor index rose 0.6% Monday, after closing Friday at a record low of?more? than 20% below its June late-closing high. This confirms that it is in a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?30716 points or 0.59% to 51,839.26. The S&P 500 lost 14.41 points or 0.19% to 7,443.28. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 12.17 points or 0.05% to 25,508.07. The earnings season could reinforce or undermine this year's gains. This has been driven by an increase in AI capital expenditure, lifting semiconductor stocks and companies that have been seen as beneficiaries of the buildout. This season's show will give some insight into the AI trade, as well as chip makers, and provide more color about secondary effects of war. MSCI's global stock index fell by 3.23 points or 0.29 percent to 1,105.50. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.3%. U.S. Treasury rates rose as traders considered the impact of escalating oil prices due to the war in Iran. The U.S. economy is quiet this week, and Federal Reserve officials have a "blackout" period for public comments before the central bank meeting next Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 5.68 basis points, to?4.598%. According to LSEG, the European Central Bank is holding a policy-setting meeting this week. Markets are pricing in a 13.1% probability of a rate hike. Andy Burnham, Britain's seventh prime minister since a decade, took over Keir starmer and the sterling fell 0.12% to 1.3437. He promised to reshape Britain's politics and introduce a "new economic model". The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose 0.18%, to 100.92. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.19%, to $1.1417. Gold spot fell by 0.24%, to $4,007.00 per ounce. (Reporting from Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John, in New York; additional reporting from Wayne Cole, in Sydney; editing by Nick Zieminski & Stephen Coates).
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New York Army veteran taken into custody after fire outside ICE offices
Authorities say a man protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was arrested on Monday, after he set off fireworks and ignited a fire on the steps leading to the ICE office in Lower Manhattan. The suspect was identified as Andrew Arrabaca a 43-year old U.S. Army Veteran living in Harlem. According to local news reports and authorities, on Monday morning a man appeared pour gasoline out of a bucket into the stairwells of 26 Federal Plaza. This office building also houses the FBI New York Field Office. He then lit it ablaze. Authorities said the suspect also ignited fireworks. He brought anti-ICE material. Department of Homeland Security announced on X, that a Federal Protective Service agent who detained the "anti-ICE rioter" was?injured. James Barnacle said that two other people had been?also lightly hurt,' at a press conference. Barnacle is the FBI assistant director for New York. Barnacle described the suspect as "an anti American, anti government extremist." James McDonald, Deputy U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York said that an investigation is ongoing and charges have not yet been filed. Arrabaca was not available for comment and it is unclear whether he has a lawyer. Officials have confirmed that Arrabaca was in the Army between 2001 and 2005, where he worked on Patriot?missiles systems. Authorities said that investigators traced the suspect on Monday to his Harlem home. Officials say he was able to reach Midtown via subway on Sunday, and then spent the night on the streets of Lower Manhattan. What happened outside 26 Federal Plaza on this morning was disturbing. Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, told reporters that he was'relieved' no one had been seriously injured and that a suspect has been taken into custody. Reporting by Doina chiacu in Washington; David Dee Delgado in New York and Maria Tsvetkova, with editing by Michelle Nichols & Cynthia Osterman
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Trump tightens waiver rules for defense supply chains
President Donald Trump signed an executive directive on Monday that makes it more difficult for U.S. Defense contractors to get waivers to purchase critical minerals and materials from China or other banned foreign suppliers. This is the latest attempt by the Trump administration to reduce its reliance on overseas supply chain for weapons production. Defense contractors must now do more than just show that a Chinese supplier offers the cheapest or easiest option. Companies requesting a waiver must prove that they have looked for alternatives, disclosed the origins of materials and provided a plan on how to reduce their reliance on banned suppliers. Contractors who fail to comply with the new requirements may face consequences in the procurement process, such as the loss of contract opportunities. Peter Navarro told reporters at a press conference before the executive order's release that "we have tried everything and are out of options". After the news, shares of MP Materials, a company in which the Pentagon holds an estimated 15% stake, closed Monday 1% higher, at $45.70. PENTAGON PUSHES OVERHAUL OF SUPPLY CHAINS Pentagon is pushing defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and others to expand rapidly weapons production. They are also trying to identify and eliminate hidden vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Many minerals and processed materials that are used in advanced systems such as missiles, aircraft, and other advanced'systems' still depend on Chinese suppliers. This leaves companies trapped between the need to reduce their dependence on Beijing, and an urgent requirement to continue supplying weapons to U.S. troops and allies. China has gradually restricted access to essential minerals and leveraged supply chains. The Trump administration is "seeking" to 'pull back the curtain on the defense supply chain, which can span dozens of suppliers and reach the company that makes the final weapon. MAPPING INDUSTRIAL BASE The order directs the Pentagon's mapping of those lower levels of the industrial base. This will give officials a better view of where vital minerals, components, and other materials come from and if foreign-controlled suppliers can threaten weapons production in a conflict. This is not paperwork. "This is not paperwork," Navarro?said. He argued that the Pentagon must know if missile systems or other platforms are dependent on foreign-controlled providers before a war begins. Contractors are also required to evaluate suppliers' foreign ownership, financial vulnerabilities, and manufacturing risks. They must replace any suppliers who are deemed unreliable.
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Trump tightens waiver rules for the defense supply chain
The executive order signed by President Donald Trump Monday will make it more difficult for U.S. Defense contractors to obtain waivers that would allow them to purchase critical minerals and materials from China and other banned?foreign?suppliers. This is the latest effort of the Trump administration to reduce reliance on overseas supply chain for weapons production. Defense contractors will now have to prove much more than that Chinese suppliers are the cheapest or easiest option. Companies seeking a waiver must prove that they have searched for 'alternatives', explain the source of their materials and present a plan on how to get away from prohibited suppliers. Contractors who don't do enough to source locally will lose their contracts. "No more": "We tried nothing and are out of options", White House advisor Peter Navarro said to reporters during a press briefing held before the executive order's release. The Pentagon is pushing defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing towards rapid expansion of weapons production, while still facing persistent vulnerabilities within the supply chains which feed the U.S. Military. Many of the critical minerals, processed materials, and advanced systems used in missiles and aircraft still depend on Chinese suppliers. This leaves companies trapped between the demands to move?away from Beijing and needing to keep weapons flowing into U.S. forces. The executive order also directs the Pentagon to develop rules requiring contractors to map critical supply chains from raw materials to finished military products. Companies will have to provide the source of components, minerals, software and other inputs that are used in certain weapons systems. This extends government visibility beyond prime contractors, to lower-tier providers. This is not paper work. "This is not paperwork," Navarro said. He argued that the Pentagon 'needs to be aware if missile systems -or other platforms- are dependent on foreign-controlled suppliers – before a war begins. Contractors are also required to evaluate suppliers' foreign ownership, financial vulnerabilities, and manufacturing risks. They must replace any suppliers who are deemed unreliable.
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Rate hike bets and US-Iran escalated oil prices have caused gold to fall.
Gold prices fell on Monday due to the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. This also affected U.S. rates of interest. As of 2:50 pm EDT (1850 GMT), spot gold was down by 0.2%. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled at $4,015.90, down around 0.1%. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased by 0.4%. The U.S. Dollar was up by 0.2% making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they struck U.S. assets in the Middle East after another night of U.S. bombing of Iranian cities. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis also declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil prices are up after reaching a month-high, fueling inflation fears and stoking bets that interest rates will continue to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of this non-yielding investment. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that "higher energy prices are still in focus" as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East adds to the concern that the Fed's less than expected data on inflation last week may not be sufficient to prevent them from raising rates this year. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice in a growing chorus that believes interest rates need to be raised to fight persistent inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and could lead to disagreements during Kevin 'Warsh's 2nd meeting as the central bank chairman. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect an interest rate increase in the U.S. by December. This is up from 73% last week. "We anticipate that the Fed won't raise rates until later in this year. We expect them to use balance sheet adjustments. Meger stated that we believe the realization of the situation?in the next month or two will actually add support to the gold market, and put pressure on the dollar. Other than that, silver spot gained 1.2%, to $56.55 an ounce. Platinum was up by 0.1%, at $1,592.86, while palladium rose by 0.9%, to $1,258,83. (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo, Shailesh Kumar and Vedika Thorat in Bengaluru)
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Oil and semi-stocks are up, as is the price of equities.
The global stock index rose on Monday, as chipmaker stocks recovered from their recent sharp declines. Oil prices also increased slightly with investors cautious about the Gulf developments. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that mediators have presented "proposals", signaling diplomatic contacts are still active. However, it did not provide any details. U.S. crude climbed 0.15%, to $82.61, and Brent rose 0.6% to $88.63 a barrel. Since the start of the U.S. - Iran conflict on February 28, higher oil prices have been a concern for both consumers and businesses. After last week's pullback in chip stocks, the equities have largely stabilized. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that he was seeing some semiconductor stocks recover. The semiconductor index was up 1.5% on Saturday after it ended Friday more than 20 percent below its record-breaking high from late June. This confirms that the market is in a downturn. Oil prices are also a factor. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 158.80?points, or 0.30%?to 51,987.62. The S&P 500 rose 18?40 points or 0.25% to 7,476.09, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 141.45?points, or 0.55%?to 25,661.70. The U.S. earnings season is picking up speed, as several major companies including Intel and IBM are due to release results. Earnings will either confirm or contradict this year's gains. This has been driven by an increase in AI capital expenditure, which is seen as a boon for semiconductor stocks and companies. This season will give us some insights into the AI trade, which includes chipmakers. It will also shed more light on the secondary effects of war. U.S. Treasury Yields rose as traders considered the impact of escalating prices for oil, driven by the war with Iran. Futures markets have priced in at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year's end. On Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury was at 4.56% - up 2 basis points. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 6.28 basis points from 4.541% to 4.604% late on Friday. Dollar rose as investors watched developments in the Iran War, and the pound dropped from its earlier highs as the markets prepared for the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Sterling fell 0.26%, to $1.3418. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.15%, to?100.98. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.25%, to $1.141. U.S. Natural?gas Futures fell about 1% due to rising production, a drop in exports of liquefied gas, and forecasts that demand will be lower this week than expected. (Reporting from Caroline Valetkevitch and Alun John, in New York; additional reporting from Wayne Cole, in Sydney; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey)
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Smoke lingers on parts of the US as wildfires in Ontario expand
Wildfires in Ontario have grown from 650,000 to 735,000 acres (1.8 million hectares) since the weekend. Premier Doug Ford announced this on Monday. The air quality in Ontario has improved, but remains unhealthy in some parts of the U.S. Midwest. Ford stated at a Toronto press conference that the province was battling 190 active fires. Around 1,800 residents were evacuated from sparsely-populated communities in northwest?Ontario. Ford stated, "We won't spare a dime in fighting these fires or keeping the people safe." Wildfires in Canada, which mostly occur in areas that are difficult to access, have led to tensions between Canada, the U.S. and some politicians who have criticized Canada for its response. The smoke from wildfires in Ontario, Minnesota and northern Canada caused the worst air pollution ever to reach Toronto last week. It then spread to New York City and Washington. The air quality has improved since then in Southern Ontario, the U.S. Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. However, it remains poor in some U.S. states in the Midwest. As of 11:15 a.m. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow website rated air quality in a region that includes parts of Wisconsin and Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Illinois as “unhealthy” or “unhealthy for groups sensitive to the air”. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Mark Carney, Canadian prime minister at the time of his visit to Washington on Sunday told him that Canada needed to do more in order for it control wildfires in Ontario. Trump claimed that he discussed the matter with?Carney at the FIFA World Cup Final, which both of them attended Sunday. This was two days after Trump threatened to levy extra tariffs on Canadian products to punish 'Canada for the wildfire smoke. Carney hasn't directly replied to Trump. However, he did say that?all countries include the United States. Climate change must be addressed more. Ford called it "inacceptable" that Trump chose to criticize Canada’s response to wildfires and threaten tariffs instead of sending help. He said that Ontario would send hydro workers to the U.S. to assist with Hurricane Helene in 2024 and water bombers in California to combat wildfires in California in 2025, as proof of Canadian support during natural disasters. Ford said, "Instead of criticizing and threatening Canada, your closest allies, perhaps one day you will need our help." Canada is home to some of world's biggest forests. Major forest fires are now a common occurrence. Experts say that rising temperatures are causing drier wood and an increased risk of fire. (Reporting and editing by Mark Porter in Toronto, with Ryan Patrick Jones reporting from Toronto)
Japan's access to China's heavy-rare earth tap is closed in June
China's exports to Japan of strategic rare earths, minerals, and other controlled materials were small again in June. This was a result of the fallout from a diplomatic spat that occurred between the two nations.
Chinese data released Monday shows that China did not send any?gallium?,?dysprosium?,?terbium? or?yttrium? to Japan in the last month. Exports have been severely restricted for several months.
Japan is the largest rare earth magnet producer outside of China, but like many other countries it relies on China to supply some rare 'earth' inputs. After comments by the Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi about Taiwan made in November, exports of controlled metals plummeted. Beijing will introduce export controls in April 2025 on certain types of heavy 'rare earths' and magnets that contain these materials. The Chinese government tightened export controls to Japan in January and again twice the following month. It targeted major?conglomerates. Companies on the island nation have raised the alarm about access to vital minerals and warned that it's beginning to impact the Japanese economy. China's export restrictions allow Beijing to leverage its dominance in the critical mineral supply chain and are one of Beijing's strongest diplomatic levers. They were also discussed during recent negotiations with the United States. Donald Trump.
After a large shipment of gallium in May, exports to Japan dropped to zero. Yttrium, a rare earth that is used to protect turbines blades of aircraft engines and power plants against extreme heat, has been in short supply due to export control.
In June, China did not export yttrium into Japan. The U.S. was a major destination of Chinese exports before the restrictions were enacted. However, for the second consecutive month, no Chinese rare earths had been sent to the U.S. China's total?exports were strong in other countries. In June, it exported 5,649 tons of magnets. This is up from 4,730 tonnes a month before. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Solomon Cefai)
(source: Reuters)