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Gold's record-breaking run has created new rules for investors

Investors are rethinking their views on gold as it surges to new heights, while AI-driven stock rallies and bitcoin's red-hot price force them to rethink what is driving this oldest of asset classes.

This week, gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce, a record high. With a 53% increase by 2025, it is on track to have its best year ever, surpassing bitcoin's 30% gain and the S&P 500's 15% rise, plus the array of tech giants.

Metals tend to do well when investors are worried about inflation, an economic slowdown, or possible market turmoil. When investors' risk appetite increases, the metal tends to fall behind shinier options that don't require additional cash for storage or insurance.

In 1980, gold prices surged when U.S. inflation topped 13%, causing the stock market to crash and the economy to tank. And in 2008, the global financial crisis caused Wall Street stocks and the economy to plummet by 32% in just six months.

The Unusual Tandem Trip for Gold and Stocks

Gold is now rising along with stocks and Bitcoin, as investors bet heavily that the U.S. will cut rates and as concern grows over the dollar as the top reserve currency in the world.

Arun Sai, senior multi-assets strategist at Pictet, said: "When there is a paradigm change in the way that the current economic system works, people have always moved to gold." Think of it as a debasement hedge.

Investors are unnerved by the political drama, France's budget troubles, and the concerns over the independence of the central banks. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues, and there are the first signs that a Gaza Peace Deal is on the horizon.

Wall Street is being driven by the artificial intelligence boom, creating concerns about a bubble. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s large spending plans along with his tariffs, and attacks against the Fed, have hurt Treasuries, and the dollar has fallen 10% this year compared to other major currencies.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes that there is an increased risk of a significant U.S. stock correction in the next six to two years.

Gold has been boosted by the tariffs, which have also stoked inflation fears.

Michael Metcalfe is the head of State Street's macro strategy.

Gold and Fed independence could be two sides to the same story, as the most powerful central bank in the world may not act when tariff-driven inflation increases.

Inflation in the G7 group, which includes the richest nations, averaged 2.4% compared to 1.7% a year ago. Most central banks have either cut rates or are holding steady.

Trump has insulted Fed chairman Jerome Powell and is trying to remove one Fed official. He also nominated Stephen Miran, an ally, as a new governor. Gold has increased by around 20% since August.

SPILLOVERS FROM GOLD STOCKS

Inflation expectations are increasing, despite the slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Investors expect U.S. interest rate cuts to continue into 2026. This will help gold and equities.

Rhona O’Connell, StoneX's head of EMEA and Asia market analysis, says that the "efficient frontier", partly explains gold's rise in tandem with stock prices.

The sweet spot is the point where a portfolio manger generates the highest return given the risk that they are willing to take. She said that gold often moves in the opposite direction of stocks, which makes it an excellent risk mitigater.

Managers can increase their gold holdings when the price of gold increases to reduce the risk that stocks will fall, and earn extra returns.

O'Connell stated that "when you've had equities in a great big tear, some of the additional value will spillover to additional gold holdings."

Gerry Fowler of UBS' equity strategy department noted that increased retail demand was reflected in the gold price.

"Every time someone puts more money in the gold ETF the ETF then has to go and buy physical gold," said he, adding that it isn't the only area of the market with what he called "bubbly behavior" and "retail excitement".

A HEDGE FOR AN AI

Gold is a hedge against the growing concern over an AI-driven stock crash. Both the Bank of England, and the IMF have expressed their concerns.

Trevor Greetham said that people are just as bullish on AI as they are gold.

If there was a severe recession and a crash of AI, you may find that gold rises another leg.

The rise of gold is largely due to the waning trust in the dollar. Central banks are avid buyers of gold, holding about a fourth of their reserves as bullion. This is one way to move away from the dollar.

Nutshell Asset Management CIO Mark Ellis predicted that the trend would continue as U.S. Tariffs encourage exporters to look for new markets and reduce their reliance upon the dollar.

What is his main opinion on the recent gold boom? He said, "It is Donald Trump." (Reporting and editing by Amanda Cooper and Lucy Raitano; Dhara Ranasinghe and Veronica Brown)

(source: Reuters)