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Morning bid Europe-Deepening darkness in Paris
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. France is once again in a deep political crisis, with five different prime ministers having been in office in just 21 months. This is not good news for investors looking to invest in Paris. The markets will probably face another day of turmoil on Tuesday following the shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien lecornu. This came only hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet, making this the shortest-lived French government in modern history. Lecornu has been asked by French President Emmanuel Macron to have last-ditch discussions with other political parties in order to find a way out of this crisis. However, the damage is already done. The French OAT futures fell slightly during the Asian session, after bonds plunged on Monday. Attention will be focused on the Paris CAC 40 when the markets open in the afternoon. BCA Research, a research firm, has said that French bonds are uninvestable. Rating agencies have issued new warnings regarding France's sovereign debt score. France has the highest budget deficit within the Eurozone, almost twice the European Union preferred limit of 3%. Since Macron's reelection in 2020, the nation's finances have been vulnerable and political instability has increased, due to the lack of a majority party or group in parliament. The Nikkei soared to yet another record on Tuesday in Japan. Meanwhile, the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remained weak. Investors were bracing for an increase in spending, as well as a looser monetary policy, under Sanae Taichi, who will be the next premier of the country. Takaichi has been favored by the majority of the ruling coalition, which holds the most seats in the parliament. As usual, the slide in the Japanese yen attracted the attention of the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated on Tuesday that his government would be on guard for volatile currency movements. The auction of 30-year JGBs on Tuesday was closely watched and seen as a test to see if investors were ready for the expected expansion in Japan's spending and monetary policy. This eased concerns that investors would be reluctant to buy long-dated bonds due to the uncertainty of fiscal policy. JGBs recovered some of their losses after the auction, and yields fell. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. French Politics Bowman, Bostic and Kashkari, Fed officials, speak
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Oil extends gains on smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ helped to ease some fears of a growing supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 23 cents or 0.35% to $65.70 per barrel at 0356 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed 21 cents or 0.34% to $61.90. The previous session saw both contracts settle more than 1% above the previous one after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other smaller producers - also known as OPEC+ – decided to increase their collective oil production from November by 137,000 barrels a day. Analysts at ING said that this move contrasted with market expectations of a more aggressive reintroduction. It was a sign the group is still cautious about increasing their production share on the global oil markets, despite predictions of a surplus of supply in the fourth and next years. Anh Pham is a senior analyst with LSEG. She said that Brent had dropped by $5 per barrel in the previous week due to expectations for a bigger supply boost. This mild rebound therefore seems reasonable. He added, "For the moment, the market appears to be able to accommodate the additional volume and we have not yet seen a change into contango on the front curve." OPEC+ increased its oil production targets by over 2.7 million bpd in this year. This is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices in check, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets and creating an uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Despite the increase in oil production by both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members, oil prices are still under pressure. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus.
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Europa Oil & Gas Eyes 2026 Drilling with PSC Extension in Equatorial Guinea
Europa Oil & Gas has received a one-year extension from the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development for Equatorial Guinea for the initial two-year period of the EG-08 production sharing contract (PSC), with the plans for drilling of the Barracuda prospect set for 2026.Europa Oil & Gas holds a 42.9% equity interest in Antler Global, which has an 80% working interest in the EG-08 PSC. The remaining 20% is held by GEPetrol, the national oil and gas company of Equatorial Guinea, representing the state’s interest.Formalities to finalize the extension are ongoing and expected to be completed in the coming days. As a result, the first sub-period of Phase 1 of the PSC will now expire on October 4, 2026.The EG-08 block contains 2.196 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas (Pmean), with the primary prospect Barracuda estimated at 878 billion cubic feet (BCF) (Pmean).“I am pleased to have secured the Minister’s approval for this extension which will provide plenty of time to finalize the farm out process for EG-08, where we continue to make good progress. Concurrently, the technical team are working on detailed engineering plans for drilling the Barracuda prospect, which we hope to spud in 2026,” said William Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Europa.Block EG-08, located offshore in the Douala Basin of Equatorial Guinea, is held by Antler Global Ltd, a company set up to acquire the EG-08 block. The PSC became effective in October 2023, with Antler holding an 80% working interest and GEPetrol holding the remaining 20%.The EG-08 block covers 731 square kilometers and has three high-graded prospects assessed to have similar AVO characteristics to the Alen and Aseng fields and other discoveries in Chevron’s Blocks O and I to the south. The prospects are covered with 3D seismic data and lie in about 80 meters of water, with reservoir targets at around 2,800 meters, drillable with a jack-up rig.The three prospects have been defined using standard Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO) techniques. Since 2005, nine exploration wells have been drilled in this area using AVO techniques, eight of which were discoveries. Volumes across the prospects are estimated at mean prospective resources of 2.116 TCFE (gas and condensate).
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Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand drive gold to all-time high
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as there was no sign of an end to the impasse that led to the government shutdown between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress. Near-certainty bets about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also provided support. Gold spot was up 0.1% to $3,965.39 an ounce at 0308 GMT after reaching a session high of $3977.19 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $3988.10. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The (chances) of October and December cuts remain above 80%. This is actually supporting the gold price and this government shutdown too given that there's still no resolution reached between the two U.S. Congress sides." Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed Bank president, has indicated that he does not intend to further cut interest rates. He said the Fed should focus on the dangers of high inflation and not just apparent weakness in job markets. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing additional 25 basis point rate cuts for both October and December, with probabilities 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has increased by 51% this year, mainly due to central bank purchases and the demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by gold. A weaker dollar also helped. Retail investors are increasingly interested in hedging their positions amid increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 forecast for gold to $4.900 per ounce, up from $4.300, on Monday. It cited strong Western exchange traded fund (ETF), and central bank purchases. Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $48.49 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4% to $1.619.62, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1,325.71. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sonia Cheema)
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Experts urge urgent action as dengue cases spread across Bangladesh
Health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the dengue epidemic is rapidly worsening, with the number of infections and deaths increasing across the nation. They also warn the disease will spiral out of control if coordinated and urgent mosquito control measures are not implemented. As of October 6, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 50,689 cases of dengue and 215 deaths in the United States. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University said that the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases -- already severe in September -- could become "alarming this month" due to climate changes and erratic rain, as well extended holidays and weak action by local governments which disrupted antimosquito campaigns. Bashar warned that the situation would spiral out of control if we did not act. Climate change, he said, has prolonged the mosquito breeding season. Delays in fogging and cleaning drives have also exacerbated the problem. Dengue, which was once confined to major cities, is now spreading into smaller towns and rural regions, causing fears that the disease could become endemic throughout the country. Health officials are concerned that the crisis is likely to worsen in the next few weeks as hospitals continue to be overburdened and infections continue to rise. A rise in chikungunya cases, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has exacerbated the crisis. Although chikungunya rarely causes death, both adults and children can suffer from severe joint pains and weakness. The worst dengue year in Bangladesh was 2023. This is when 1,705 people died and more than 321,000 were infected. Experts warn the country may face a new cycle of destruction if preventive measures aren't taken. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ruma Paul)
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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz
Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases. Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said. As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day. Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026. "In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Oil prices steady as the market chews on OPEC+ production hike and supply glut fears
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, with sentiment toward a smaller-than-anticipated OPEC+ output hike dulled by weakening global demand and the potential for a supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 1 cent or 0.02% to $65.48 per barrel at 0014 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was unchanged at $60.69 per barrel. Both contracts were settled at a higher level than the previous session. Crude oil prices rose after OPEC announced a production increase that was smaller than expected. Oil market analysts had been expecting a significant increase in quotas as the members of the group met over the weekend to discuss their agreement on supply. This has averted fears of a bigger surplus in the coming months than what the market expects. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia plus some smaller producers – known as OPEC+ – decided on Sunday to increase their collective oil production by 137,000 barils per day beginning in November. The group increased its oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices stable, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets. It also creates uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Oil prices are still under pressure because investors believe that there will be a surplus of oil as both OPEC+ as well as non-OPEC+ producers increase their output. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil)
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Rio Tinto and Partners to Invest $733 Million in Pilbara Iron Ore Project
Rio Tinto announced on Tuesday that it, along with joint venture partners Mitsui Iron Ore & Nippon Steel, will invest $733 Million to develop new ore deposits in the West Angelas Hub of Western Australia's Pilbara Region. Rio Tinto said that the West Angelas project, for which it will contribute $389 millions, will maintain the hub’s annual production capability at 35 million tonne, and extend mining operations by several years. Around 600 full-time jobs will be created during construction, and around 950 will remain after the project is operational. The autonomous trucking of ore will begin in 2027. Rio Mining said the project is part of a series of iron ore replacement developments in Pilbara that support a total production capacity of 130 million tonnes annually. Since 2002, the West Angelas Hub has been an important part of Rio Tinto’s operations. Rio Tinto has also begun a feasibility study for Rhodes Ridge. The project is expected to have an initial capacity up to 40 millions tonnes per year and the first ore in 2030. Rio Tinto shares rose by 0.9% at A$124.72 to outperform the benchmark index which was down 0.1% as of 2329 GMT. In partnership with China Baowu Steel Group the miner has also opened the Western Range Iron Ore Mine, worth $2 billion. The aim is to sustain production from the Paraburdoo hub of the Pilbara region for at least two decades. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Roshan Thomas; Editing by Shailesh Kumar)
China's central banks extends gold purchases for the 11th month
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the 11th consecutive month.
China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 millions fine troy ounces by the end September, from 74.02million ounces in August.
The PBOC reported that the gold reserves of the country were valued at an estimated $283.29 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $253.84 Billion at the end August.
Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that a strong figure would confirm the notion that China is eager to dedollarize and accelerate their actions in this space.
"Further purchase, even modest purchases, will be viewed domestically as positive in a price sensitive market. This may reduce the large discounts offered by Loco Shanghai. "It will give ETF investors and institutions the confidence that gold prices will continue to rise."
The gold price, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty, has reached multiple records so far this season due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs, geopolitical conflict, the expectation of interest rate reductions, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases.
On Monday, gold prices rose above $3900 per ounce.
The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024.
The World Gold Council (WGC), in a survey, found that central banks expect their gold reserves as a percentage of their total reserves to rise over the next five year period. However, they anticipate their dollar reserves will be lower. Reporting by Zhang Yan and Qiaoyi Li in Bengaluru, as well as Anushree Mukerjee and Ishaan Aroo from Bengaluru. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger and Jacqueline Wong.
(source: Reuters)