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ASIA COPPER WEEK-Copper TC/RCs benchmark next year seen at 15-year low, survey shows

Copper concentrate processing fees are expected to be set at a. 15yearlow in 2025 due to the fact that of increasing tightness in raw. material supply from mine disturbances and a growth in. smelting capability, a study of industry participants discovered.

As copper sector participants fulfilled for their yearly Shanghai. gathering next week, attention will be on negotiations between. international miners and smelters in China, the world's dominant. processor, to set the international standard for next year's costs.

Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), an essential source of. revenue for smelters, are paid by miners when they offer. concentrate, or semi-processed ore, to be improved into metal.

The charges tend to fall when ore supply declines and increase. when more concentrate is offered.

A Reuters poll of industry sources including smelters,. traders, miners, analysts and consultants revealed a wide range of. expectation for the TC/RC criteria, from the high teens to $50. a metric ton.

Amongst the 45 participants, 21 anticipated a variety of high. $ 20s to mid $30s a heap, while nine anticipated a variety in the high. teens to mid $20s, and 12 anticipated a range of high $20s to $40. The remainder offered a wide range of $20-$ 50 a heap.

The projections are well below 2024's $80 a ton standard. The. last time annual criteria TC/RCs were listed below $50 remained in 2010,. CRU data revealed.

TC/RC prices must decrease as more smelters come online. in the middle of less concentrate supply.

Analysts at consultancy Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) anticipate. the international copper concentrate deficit to broaden to 822,000 heaps. in 2025 from this year's 221,000 tons.

In China alone, smelting capability will reach 16 million tons. in 2025 and approach 17 million tons in 2027, from 14.26 million. tons at the end of last year, Ge Honglin, chairman of the China. Nonferrous Metals Market Association (CNIA), informed a conference. in late October.

All these smelters will need focuses, so they're. striking the market at probably the worst time, said expert. Edward Meir at broker Marex.

Extreme falls in TC/RCs in addition to a getting worse concentrate. lack have actually deteriorated smelters' margins, requiring some to start. maintenance or hold off production at new plants.

The weekly index of TC/RCs for the Chinese area market. published by Shanghai Metal Markets is at $10.45 a heap.

According to our price quote, if the criteria is set listed below. $ 40, many smelters will suffer loss, said Zhao Yongcheng,. principal expert at Criteria Minerals Intelligence.

Current accidents at smelters owned by China Daye Non-Ferrous. Metals Mining and Freeport Indonesia might imply the release of. some copper raw material to the market, providing smelters some. leverage over negotiations, analysts said.

A large range in expectations indicates settlements might extend. into December.

None of these smelters are going to accept numbers. around $10 or below, stated Meir.

However if you're a miner and you see TC/RCs trading at around. plus or minus $10, it's very hard for you to pay big numbers. next year ... Miners would require to pay up to make sure that they. have enough smelting capacity, he added.

Smelters will also most likely increase usage of scrap copper to. change concentrate feed, experts stated.

Beijing has actually allowed imports of more recycled copper and. established a new state-backed recycling company to help in reducing. dependence on primary raw materials.

But this is just going to be a short-lived solution. The. growth in secondary projects beyond China is significantly. likely to constrain the volume of scrap that China can import in. the next few years, said expert Jonathan Barnes at consultancy. Project Blue.

(source: Reuters)