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Gold is up over 3% but it's on track to be the worst month for gold since 2008.
Gold was up on Tuesday but still on course for its'severest monthly decline' since October 2008 as inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates due the Iran War weighed heavily on the metal. By 1:31 pm EDT (1731 GMT), spot gold had risen 3.2%, to $4652.31 an ounce. This was the highest price since March 20. U.S. Gold Futures closed 2.7% higher, at $4678.60. The U.S. Dollar slipped but was still on track for a gain of 1% per month. A stronger dollar increases the price of greenback-priced gold for holders of foreign currencies. The current gold rally is encouraging, and it's due to increased optimism regarding de-escalation of the Middle East. "I need to see more upside performance before I can say that this is a pattern to continue," said Peter Grant. "In the longer term, the underlying trends remain bullish and the key fundamentals such as de-dollarization and the central bank buying of bonds are still in place." The Wall Street Journal, citing officials in the administration, reported that Donald Trump would be willing to end his military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth warned Tehran to make a decision soon in the war with Iran. The price of spot gold fell 11.8% in march as the Middle East war?weighs on bullion. Energy prices have risen dramatically, causing inflation fears to increase and for markets to reassess their expectations of interest rates. High rates increase the opportunity costs of holding metal, despite it being a hedge against inflation and uncertainty. Goldman Sachs and BMI both forecast that the price of gold will reach $5,400 per ounce by 2026. Spot silver increased 6.7%, to $74.64, however it was down 20.4% in the last month. BNP Paribas analysts expect silver to trade in the range of $65-$75 per ounce until 2026, and that physical markets will be surplus by 2027. Palladium rose by 5.2%, to $1,479.25, and platinum gained 3.1%, to $1,958.05. Both metals are on course for a monthly decline. Ashitha Shivprasad, reporting from Bengaluru and Paul Simao, editing by Tasim Zahid
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OMV Plastics CEO: Profits will increase dramatically for the giant plastics company
Alfred Stern, CEO of Austria's OMV said that the giant new plastics group Borouge International is a significant step towards increased profitability. He added that a listing was expected to take place in 2027. The new group was completed on Tuesday and was created by combining ADNOC with OMV subsidiaries, along with the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals. Stern stated that the group is expected to have higher margins than average and a stronger price premium compared with other companies in the market. Stern stated that around 70% of the production is based upon low-cost raw materials, while premium products enjoy an average price premium of 18%. EARNINGS ARE ALREADY HIGH, AND WE EXPECT THEM TO RISE Borouge International, based on its existing companies, would have had a margin of earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortisation?of about 25% in the past five years. OMV, the Austrian group that combines oil, chemicals and gas, reported profits higher than expected earlier this year. The chemicals division was a major contributor to these results. In order to launch Borouge International in 2026 with a solid balance sheet and an investment grade rating, OMV and ADNOC have said that they would forgo the half of their dividend. Stern stated that this will not change OMV's dividend policy. In the beginning, it was planned to list Borouge International in this month around the time of the company's formation. The company denied that the delay was directly related to the Middle East conflict, saying they were simply trying to choose the best date for their shareholders. Stern stated that the company is now targeting a 2027 initial public offering through a three stage process. Borouge's existing shares will first be exchanged and then listed in Abu Dhabi, at the same time that a capital increase is being carried out to allow its inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Borouge International's headquarters will be in Vienna where a secondary IPO has been planned. In a press release?on Tuesday, it was stated that the merger would generate synergies worth at least $500 million, with 75% occurring within the first 3 years. However, the statement did not provide details as to how this would be achieved. Borouge International will have a production capacity of more than 12,000,000 metric tons per year, placing them in the fourth position globally. In Abu Dhabi, new plants are expected to be commissioned this year. This will add 1.4 million tonnes of additional capacity. Reporting by Alexandra Schwarz Goerlich, writing by Maria Rugamer. Editing by Olaf Brenner, Barbara Lewis and Barbara Lewis.
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War and weather focus on March gains for EU wheat
Euronext Wheat rose on Tuesday to confirm a gain for the month as dry weather threatened U.S. Harvest prospects and the latest developments in Iran war boosted gains on wider markets. The euro's sharp rise against the dollar has slowed down Tuesday's gains on 'Euronext'. The grain markets also took in the U.S. plantation estimates. The data surprised traders because it showed corn acres far above the average expectation of analysts, who were expecting a greater shift to soybeans due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs. Euronext's benchmark May milling wheat settled at 204.75 euro per metric ton, up 0.5%. The contract increased 1.6% in March, its third consecutive monthly gain. However, the increase was less than a 4.4% leap in February. Chicago wheat prices rose by more than 1%. Brent crude oil was on course to set a new monthly record, as news of an attack on a tanker in the Middle East heightened supply concerns. The broader market was buoyed by a report that U.S. President Donald Trump told his aides that he would be willing to end this war, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. The price of grains has largely tracked the price of crude oil since the Iran War, a reflection of the use corn for biofuels as well as the rising costs associated with energy and fertilisers. The impact of the war in Iran on the wheat demand was also being assessed by traders. Tunisia won a tender to purchase 100,000 tons of soft grain at a price of $274.73 per tonne cost and freight. This was higher than the previous tender of $271.69. Jordan, on the other hand, completed its purchase of 60,000 tonnes of hard wheat at $275.95 per ton cost and freight (c&f), lower than $277.50 per ton paid in a tender held on March 17. The traders reported that for the April/May shipment,?Russian, Polish/Baltic and 12.5% Wheat was priced between $238 and $239 per ton (free on board) while German and Romanian wheat was priced between $240 and $243 per ton. U.S. hard-red winter wheat remains less competitive with a price of more than $279 per ton FOB. U.S. prices have increased as the drought has worsened conditions for crops. The European Union's soft wheat exports have risen 7% on an annual basis to 17.48 million metric tons so far this year, according to data released by the European Commission on Tuesday. Other traders were puzzled by a sudden jump in Danish barley imports to China.
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Suncor has a major shift planned to focus on in situ oil sands production by 2040
Suncor Energy, a Canadian oil sands giant, announced on Tuesday that the majority of their bitumen production?by?2040 would be produced by steam-assisted extract technology. This announcement marks a structural shift in the company's business model and will lead to lower costs and greater cash flow. Suncor produces 70% of its oil sands at large-scale operations in northern Alberta. Trucks and shovels extract the heavy, thick bitumen deposits, which are located?near the surface. The remaining 30% is from deeper deposits, which require steam technologies (also called in situ) to loosen the oil before it can be pumped up. Rich Kruger, Suncor CEO, said that over the next 15-years, Suncor will change its production mix so that by 2040, 60% will come from oil sands in situ development and only 40% will be from mining. Suncor's Base Plant, which will be mostly depleted in the mid-2030s is expected to decline, and the company wants a lower-cost product. Kruger stated that "all barrels aren't created equal." In situ mining produces two times more cash per barrel than today's mining. Suncor's Firebag site is already its most profitable asset. It produces 245,000 barrels of oil per day with in situ technology. Suncor filed a regulatory request on Monday to increase the permitted capacity of the site from the existing limit, which is 368,000 barrels per day, to 700,000. Suncor is expecting to be able, through debottlenecking projects and optimization, to increase Firebag's output to 275,000 barrels per day by 2028. Kruger also said that the company has proposed a?development in situ, called Lewis. It is expected to generate 160,000 bpd. The project will be built in phases, according to Kruger, to correspond with the gradual depletion of the Base Plant Mine. Suncor's Investor Day was eagerly anticipated by the market. They wanted to know how the company planned to replace the Base Plant production with a reliable bitumen supply. The company previously?proposed a 225,000 bpd open-pit expansion of its oil sands operations, located next to the existing Base Plant. It is unclear whether a similar?project would be approved by Canadian?regulators. Kruger stated on Tuesday that the company's newest estimate of reserves indicates it has 11 billion more barrels in reserves than originally estimated. This brings its total bitumen reserve to 30 billion. Suncor plans to increase its upstream production of about 100,000 barrels per day by 2028.
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Aluminium nears four-year high amid supply fears
Aluminum prices rose on Tuesday. They were near their four-year highs and poised to make the biggest monthly gain since?almost 2 years. This was due to fears that a supply shortage would continue after Iranian strikes over the weekend damaged some of the Gulf's key smelters. The benchmark 'three-month' aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 2.1% by 1600GMT to $3,471.50 per metric ton, after earlier reaching $3,536, which was its highest level since March 12. Metal prices are up 10.6% in March. The attacks on Iran damaged two aluminum plants in the Gulf region operated by Aluminium Bahrain, and Emirates Global Aluminium. These two companies account for 8% global supply. The companies have not provided an update on their operation. David Wilson, BNP Paribas' commodities strategist, said that the market was waiting for more information about what happened. We haven't received any official confirmation of the damage yet. If the market is able to break through the $3,546.50 peak reached on March 12, it could lead to record prices four years ago when markets were still dealing with the immediate effects of Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Goldman Sachs increased its second-quarter aluminum price forecast from $3,200 to $3,450 due to further supply disruptions. The global aluminium market is expected to have a deficit of 570,000 tonnes in 2026, compared to a surplus of 550,000 tons previously. Aluminium stocks registered with the LME The aluminium market has been tightening up in March. At 416,775 tonnes, it is at its lowest level since July. The premium for LME Cash Metal?over a?three-month Contract On Friday, the price of a ton reached $61, its highest level since 2007. This was a sign that there were concerns about immediate supply. The premium last stood at $54 on February. On the former Gulf?supply?side, Indonesian aluminium state company PT Inalum called on the government on Tuesday to impose a?moratorium?on alumina and aluminum?plants. Other LME metals include copper, which rose 0.9% to $12.329.50 per ton. Zinc gained 1.2%, lead dropped 0.2%, tin remained at $46,720, and nickel fell by 0.8% to $17.110. (Reporting and editing by Shailesh Kumar and Diti Pjara; Reporting by Polina Devitt)
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Six Palestinians killed in Gaza Strip by Israeli strikes, say medics
Israeli strikes?killed six people in a separate attack in 'the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, according to health?officials. This is the latest violence that has overshadowed a 'fragile five-month old U.S.-brokered truce deal. A medic said that an Israeli airstrike on Jabalia in the north of the enclave killed at least three earlier in the day. Another airstrike, which took place in Khan Younis in the south, killed a father, and his son. Health officials reported that an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday afternoon?against Palestinians near a checkpoint in Mawasi? in the southern Gaza Strip? killed one person and injured eight others. Israeli officials have not commented on any of these incidents. Hamas and Israel have exchanged blame over violations of the ceasefire agreement reached last October. Gaza's health ministry reported that Israeli fire killed at least 700 civilians since the ceasefire. Israel claimed that four soldiers in Gaza were killed over the same period by "militants". Israel and the U.S. are also involved in a 'conflict with Iran. Israeli forces have also invaded southern Lebanon as part of a new campaign to combat Iran-backed Hezbollah. According to Israeli figures, Hamas' attacks on Israel in October 2023 killed 1,200 people and 251 were taken as hostages. According to Gazan health authorities, Israel's two year-long offensive has resulted in the deaths of more than 72,000 Palestinians. Most of them were civilians. It has also spread famine, destroyed most buildings and forced most of Gaza's residents to move, often multiple times.
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Savannah accelerates Portugal lithium project and sees longer life span
Savannah Resources, a London-listed company, is speeding up work on its 'lithium project' in Portugal. The CEO,?Emanuel Proenca, said that the company was confident of being able to?become globally competitive, and reduce Europe’s dependence on Chinese supplies for the metal used to make?batteries. Resources at the Barroso deposit in northern Portugal, a lithium bearing mineral, were increased in September from 28 to 39 million tons. This was already Europe's biggest deposit. Proenca stated that 'potential extensions between 35 and 62 millions metric tonnes could push resources above 100 million metric tonnage, more than doubling the mine lifespan projected to more than 50 years. Work has intensified in recent months, on all fronts. With each milestone, we are more and more confident that the project can be highly competitive at a global scale, even under difficult market conditions. The 110 million Euro grant from the Portuguese Government was also "a step in the right direction." Construction is planned to begin in 2028 and a final investment decision will be made by the end the year. As Europe moves away from fossil fuels, it aims to reduce its reliance on Chinese Lithium. However, the country's own capacity for extraction and refinement remains limited. Proenca said the project could break even with $600 per ton spodumene concentration, "allowing them to compete with majors" while supplying raw materials closer to Europe’s refineries, and "reducing their reliance on other countries especially China." Spodumene exported to China now trades at more than $2,000 Since Barroso became a World Heritage site in 2018, the project has faced local opposition. However, the CEO stated that this was "gradually declining" as the company hired locally and increased engagement with the local community. (Reporting and editing by Andrei Khalip, David Gregorio, and Sergio Goncalves)
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EU wheat gains for the third consecutive month
The European wheat futures are poised to make a third consecutive monthly gain in March. This is due to strong oil prices and a rebound on the wider markets, which was fueled by hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East. However, a strong euro on Tuesday dampened gains. Euronext's benchmark May milling grain was trading at 204.75 euro per metric ton as of 1600 GMT, up 0.5%. The benchmark May milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext was up 0.5% at 204.75 euros a metric ton by 1600 GMT. In Chicago, the price of wheat was $6.18 per bushel. One German trader stated that "Euronext's holding of well over 200 Euros is a burden for the export outlook." Brent crude oil was?on course for a monthly increase record. The grain prices are closely tied to the fluctuations in crude oil price during the Iran war, as a result of the increased use of corn for biofuels and the rising costs associated with energy and fertiliser. U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that U.S. Farmers plan to plant more soybeans and less corn in 2026 due to the rising fuel and fertiliser prices. Although international bids showed mixed signals, traders stated that the Iran War continues to affect?import prices. Tunisia won a tender to purchase 100,000 tons of soft grain at a price of $274.73 per ton, cost and freight. This was higher than the $271.69 paid for a tender on March 6. Jordan's purchase of 60 tons of hard grain was made at $275.95 per ton cost and freight (c&f), a price that is slightly below the $277.50 per ton paid on March 17th. The price of Russian and Polish/Baltic 125% wheat was $238-$239 per ton, while German and Romanian 125% wheat was $240 to $243 per ton. U.S. 'hard red winter grain remained 'less competitive, at more than $279 a tonne fob. Argentine supplies are also dwindling following large recent exports. (Reporting from Sybille De La Hamaide and Michael Hogan, in Paris; Editing by David Goodman)
All eyes on ANC as it discusses who to employ to govern South Africa
South Africa was on tenterhooks on Monday for the African National Congress to signal whom it will choose as a partner to govern the country after it lost its majority in recently's election for the very first time in thirty years of democracy.
The ANC had comfortably won every previous election because completion of apartheid in 1994 however this time citizens tired of joblessness, inequality and rolling power blackouts provided it simply 40.2% of the vote, down from 57.5% five years back.
Its vote share was still the largest of any party however was insufficient for the ANC to govern alone, thrusting South Africa into unknown political area.
This minute in our country requires responsible leadership and constructive engagement, stated President Cyril Ramaphosa in a weekly newsletter published on Monday.
The ANC's potential partners are diametrically opposed, ranging from the free-marketeer Democratic Alliance (DA) to uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF),. parties that advocate nationalising mines and banks and. redistributing land.
We would work with anyone who wants to deal with us however not. with a cap in the hand, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. stated late on Sunday after the official outcomes were revealed.
With the future instructions of government policy at stake, a. working committee of 27 ANC officials was arranged to satisfy on. Tuesday to prepare a discussion on the celebration's options to be. delivered to the National Executive Committee on Wednesday.
The conferences were earlier scheduled for Monday and Tuesday,. respectively.
It's a rescheduling, ANC spokesperson Mahlengi. Bhengu-Motsiri told , refuting a regional media report that. the conferences were delayed due to internal dispute and adding. how can you have arguments when they haven't even met. yet?.
The DA and the smaller, socially conservative Inkatha. Flexibility Celebration (IFP) have actually both revealed they had established. working out groups to engage with other celebrations. Both are part of. an alliance of celebrations formed before the election.
Individuals of South Africa spoke loud and clear that. political celebrations must find each other and make up a. federal government on their behalf as they did not offer a complete mandate. to one political celebration, said IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa.
The DA came second in the election with 21.8% of the vote,. while MK, which is led by former president Jacob Zuma, got. 14.6%. The EFF received 9.5% and the IFP 3.9%.
Under the constitution, the recently elected parliament must. assemble within 2 weeks of the results being stated, and one. of its very first acts need to be to pick the nation's next president.
So far, ANC authorities who have spoken in public have rallied. round Ramaphosa but he may nonetheless come under pressure,. whether from an internal obstacle or from other parties. declining to work with him.
TOUGH TALKS AHEAD
It is going to be really tough union negotiations,. even more so for the ANC since of its internal. contradictions, said Zwelinzima Ndevu, director of the School. of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga stated the DA was most likely to. push the ANC hard on making a strong dedication to root out. corruption in celebration ranks, which might set off resistance from. some ANC figures he described as heavily jeopardized.
It's going to be a question as to whether the ANC signs up. for anti-corruption or not, he said.
In spite of that possible hurdle, some analysts said a deal. in between the ANC and the DA appeared like the likeliest result. since the DA had a favorable record in federal government at the. provincial level, in Western Cape where the significant traveler city. of Cape Town is located.
I'm tending intuitively to think the DA has got slightly. better odds than the EFF at this stage, said Susan Booysen,. director of research study at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic. Reflection.
Monetary markets, which favour the DA over either the EFF. or MK due to its pro-business policy stance, appeared to be. taking a similar view. South Africa's rand, stocks. and government bonds comprised some of their. recent days' losses linked to post-election uncertainty.
Some experts noted that a coalition was not the only. possible outcome. A federal government of nationwide unity bringing in all. the main parties might not be eliminated, although that was seen. as potentially unsteady and vulnerable to gridlock.
A minority ANC government, perhaps with a. confidence-and-supply deal where several other celebrations. would support it on essential parliamentary votes, was another. theoretical option.
The dark horse in the election was MK, the new celebration led by. Zuma, but couple of experts anticipated an ANC-MK tie-up provided the. bitter acrimony in between them.
A divisive figure who stays popular in his home province. of KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma was required to give up as president in 2018. after a string of corruption scandals during his term in office. and has considering that become an implacable opponent of Ramaphosa.
MK has said it is considering a court difficulty to the. election results regardless of its strong proving.
Analysts have long feared Zuma's celebration may stir up trouble. if his fans turn down the outcomes. They rioted and looted for. days when he was apprehended for contempt of court in 2021.
(source: Reuters)