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INSTANT VIEW: Investor reactions to Trump's agreement to a two-week ceasefire.
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he had reached an agreement with Iran to establish a two-week ceasefire, less than 2 hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil fell, bonds rose and stocks soared after the ceasefire. It was believed that the ceasefire would pave the way for a "lasting peace" and the resumption in Gulf oil and natural gas exports. Below are some responses from analysts and investors: MARTIN WHETTON HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKETS STRATEGY WESTPAC SYDNEY This is what always happens. Does this mean people will take on new risks? No, it does not. "There would have to be a lasting, stable peace for things to change." The people are not taking any risks. "This is just algos doing things." BRIAN JACOBSEN CHIEF ECONOMIST ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT MENOMONEE FALLS WISCONSIN "President Trump stated that he had agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks. This is enough to maintain hope that an entire civilization will not be destroyed and oil could start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. "Is this just about kicking the can 'down the road, moving goal posts, TACO Tuesday, or whatever metaphor you like to use, only for tempers to flare and bombs to drop again?" ?Who knows? It's good enough for the moment to get a positive reaction from the markets."
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Ghana leases Gold Fields Damang mine to local firm Engineers & Planners
The Mines Minister announced on Tuesday that Ghana has selected local mining'services' company Engineers & Planners Ltd. to take over Gold Fields Damang gold mine. Ghana, which wants to increase local ownership of its mining industry, rejected Johannesburg-based Gold Fields’ lease renewal bid last year and took control of the mine, breaking years of automatic extension. Then, it?began to assess local bids in order to revive the asset for $1 billion. Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah, in a'statement', said that the 'Minerals Commission had recommended e&p as the winning bidder. The company showed that it could access funding of up to $500 million, which was the minimum amount required by the government. The statement also praised the company's technical expertise, equipment, safety, and local content. Gold Fields has been operating Damang mine for more than 20 years. Initially, it said that they may sell the mine due to its short life expectancy and lack of reserves. Last month, it said that 'it is working to ensure a smooth transition of the mine from the current operator to the new one. The 'tender' aims to protect jobs, keep the mine running and increase local participation. Christian Akorlie, Emmanuel Bruce and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila report; Maxwell Akalaare Adombila writes; Barbara Lewis edits.
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World Bank predicts Nigerian economic growth in 2026, but Iran war raises inflation
The World Bank stated that Nigeria's economy will grow despite the Iran war in the first half of 2026. Fiseha Haile, World Bank Nigeria's lead economist during a presentation held in Abuja said that business activity is still in expansion mode. The conflict between the U.S./Israel/Iran has so far raised prices while leaving the output mostly intact. The impact on growth is relatively limited, as the overall business activity has increased in the last few months. Haile stated that the shock was still felt by higher inflation. Bola Tinubu is now in his third year as president. He has implemented the most ambitious economic reforms in Nigeria in decades. This includes ending expensive fuel and energy subsidies, devaluing currency, and changing tax systems to stabilize an economy that was battered by inflation, currency weakness, and external shocks. Haile stated that the inflation rate has dropped sharply from 33% to 15.5% in February 2024. However, it remains high in comparison with other countries in the region and is under renewed pressure ever since Middle East conflict began. Fuel prices rose by more than half during the Iran War, affecting transport, food, and production costs. He said Nigeria should lift restrictions on fuel imports in order to ease inflation. RISK TO INCOME Haile stated that "inflation remains high and is under increasing pressure. This poses risks for incomes and poverty reduction." Nigeria's external buffers are improving as the foreign exchange reserves increase and volatility decreases. However, tighter global financing conditions continue to threaten inflows and borrowing costs. Haile stated that Nigeria's fiscal gap widened to 3.1% GDP by 2025 but remains lower than it was in the years before the reform. He also added that the debt ratio fell for the very first time in the last decade due to improved fiscal performance and gains in exchange rate valuation. The World Bank has forecasted an economic growth rate of 4.2% by 2026. It urged governments to conserve windfalls from rising oil prices, to keep monetary policies tight, and to avoid blanket subsidies to curb inflation. The World Bank stated that Nigeria should accelerate reforms beyond macro stabilisation to achieve inclusive, long-term growth. Early childhood development is a top priority. Nigeria has some of the worst outcomes in the world, with 110 children dying before they reach age five. Approximately 40% are stunted and more than 50% fail to reach developmental milestones prior to school. The recent investments in health and nutrition are encouraging. However, the challenge is to deliver "a coherent and continuous child-centred package", from pregnancy until age five. This includes health, nutrition and water sanitation as well as foundational learning.
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Brazil's power regulator moves against Enel in Sao Paulo
Aneel, Brazil's energy regulator, decided on Tuesday to "move forward" with a forfeiture procedure that could lead to the termination a concession owned by a local Enel unit in Sao Paulo. Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira asked Aneel in December to "start the termination process" for Enel after extreme weather events caused power outages that affected more than 2 million customers in the Sao Paulo metro area. Enel has another chance to defend itself before the regulator decides to recommend that the concession is revoked. The change in the process prevents Enel Sao Paulo from automatically renewing its contract that expires?in 2028. It would be difficult to sell the concession, which was the option that companies who faced similar problems in the electricity sector have previously chosen. Enel has, however, publicly stated that they do not intend to sell the asset. Enel didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Reporting by Leticia Fukuma, Writing by Isabel Teles and Editing by Aurora Ellis
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US-Iran negotiations continue, but Saudi Arabian strikes may derail efforts, say sources
Two Pakistani sources familiar with the talks said that the United States-Iran talks were in danger of being derailed because of Tehran's attacks against Saudi Arabian industrial facilities. Two Pakistani sources with knowledge of the discussions said that the talks between the United States and Iran were at risk of being derailed?after Tehran's attacks on Saudi Arabian industrial?facilities. One source said that the next few hours are crucial. Trump gave Iran until 8 pm in Washington (3:30 am in Tehran) to end its Gulf oil blockade or the U.S. would destroy every Iranian bridge and power station. Iran has threatened to retaliate on behalf of U.S. Gulf allies, as their desert cities will be uninhabitable if they don't have power or water. Iran increased its strikes over night, hitting a Saudi Petrochemical Complex as the latest proof of the nation’s ability to strike against U.S. and Israeli attacks. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, causing the biggest energy disruption in history. It is the main artery that transports one-fifth the world's gas and oil. Pakistan has been a main intermediary for proposals that both sides have shared, but no signs of a compromise have been seen. One source said that the attack on the Jubail complex could lead to Saudi Arabia retaliating, which would put an end to the talks. It could also bring Pakistan into the conflict, under the defence pact it has with Riyadh, which binds them both in the event of war. Shehbaz Shaif, Pakistani Prime Minister, condemned the Saudi strikes against Saudi facilities in a phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He said Pakistan would stand shoulder to shoulder with its Saudi sisters and brothers. MESSAGES READY TO BE EXCHANGED "We're in contact with the Iranians." "They have recently shown flexibility in that they could participate in the talks. But they are also taking hardlines?as an essential prerequisite for any negotiation," said the Pakistani source. He said that Islamabad is persuading Tehran into entering negotiations without any prior conditions. Iran's spokesperson for the foreign ministry said Monday that messages between Iran and?U.S. are still being exchanged. Through mediators. According to a senior Iranian source, Tehran rejected a proposal of a temporary truce with talks conditional on the?end of U.S./Israeli strikes? and?compensation? for damages. The Pakistani Foreign Office said that on Tuesday, the attacks on Saudi Arabia represent a dangerous escalation. After top commanders had met with Asim Munir, a Pakistani Army statement said: "Such unwarranted aggressive actions have serious repercussions and can spoil the peaceful options that are currently in place as well as a conducive environment." Pakistan is trying to avoid getting dragged into the conflict, which could cause havoc on its western border shared with Iran, and stir up discontent in its Shi'ite majority, the second largest in the world, after Iran. Analysts claim that the defence agreement "may not trigger an immediate military action, but could be activated" if the conflict escalates. Adam Weinstein of the Quincy Institute, a Pakistan, Afghanistan, and U.S. political expert, said that Iran's willingness at a crucial time to broker a ceasefire to punish the Gulf for U.S. or Israeli strikes, shows how Tehran is committed to a titt-for-tat policy.
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Next Monday, the heads of IMF, World Bank, and IEA will meet to discuss energy crisis
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said that the leaders of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary 'Fund, and World Bank will be discussing the 'energy crisis triggered by the Iran war' next Monday. Birol, on the social media platform X said: "This energy crisis requires all hands on deck & global cooperation." He stressed the need for three?institutions worldwide to support governments in the face of the economic fallout caused by the?war. Birol, IMF chief Kristalina?Georieva and World Bank's Ajay?Banga decided last week to create a coordination group in order to deal with a?regional disruptor that has led to one of the largest supply shortages ever recorded on the global energy market. They said that their response mechanism might include providing targeted policy advice and assessing possible financing needs. Birol's statement came as U.S. president Donald Trump threatened Iran that "a entire civilisation" would die if Tehran did not accept an ultimatum for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, this international waterway was used to transport a fifth of all oil and natural gas liquefied around. Birol told the French newspaper Le Figaro recently that the current oil crisis, triggered by the 'Irani blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, is "more severe than the ones in 1973 and 1979 combined". Reporting by Dominique Vidalon and America Hernandez; Writing by Charlotte Van Campenhout, Forrest Crellin, Editing by Gareth Jones
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Gold stable as caution prevails before Trump's Iran deadline
The gold price was little changed Tuesday as caution ruled the market in anticipation of a 'U.S. The looming deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, or face devastating attacks on Iran's infrastructure. By 11:16 am, spot gold had remained flat at $4.648,32 per ounce. ET (1516 GMT), following a 1% rise earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $4670.90. The gold market is teetering on the edge of a cliff ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. Eastern Time U.S. deadline. The gold market is on hold while traders await the outcome of this event, which could have a significant impact, said Jim Wyckoff. IRAN SHOW NO SIGN OF CONCEDING Strikes against Iran increased throughout the day, but Iran showed little sign of accepting Trump’s ultimatum that the Strait be opened by the end?Tuesday. The U.S. President said that "a whole civilization will die tonight" without a deal with Tehran. Gold traders are more concerned about what central banks will do with interest rates, than geopolitics. Wyckoff explained that if major economies delay lowering their interest rates, this could be extrapolated as a 'lessening of demand for gold. Since the Iran conflict, oil prices have risen. Energy costs are rising, which leads to inflation and leaves central banks little room to reduce interest rates. Gold is a hedge against inflation but it's less appealing in an environment of high rates because it has no yield. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting from March will also be released Wednesday. Additionally, U.S. The Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Spending data are due Thursday. Data showed that China's central bank has continued to buy gold for the 17th consecutive months. Silver spot fell 2.7%, to $70.83 an ounce. Platinum dropped 3.4%, to $1.911.37. Palladium fell by 4.3%, to $1.421.75. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Diti Pjara and Ashitha Shivaprasad from Bengaluru)
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World Bank predicts Nigerian economic growth in 2026, but Iran war raises inflation
The World Bank stated on Tuesday that Nigeria's economy will grow in the first half of 2026, despite the Iran War. However, rising fuel prices and persistently high inflation could squeeze incomes, slowing poverty reduction. Fiseha Haile, World Bank Nigeria's lead economist during a presentation held in Abuja said that business activity remains in growth territory. The conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran has so far lifted prices while leaving output mostly intact. The impact of the growth shock has been contained, as the overall business activity has increased over the last few months. "But the shock is still felt by higher inflation," said?Haile. In his third year as president, Bola Tinubu has implemented the most ambitious economic reforms in Nigerian history. He has ended costly fuel and electricity subsidies, devalued the currency, and changed the tax system to stabilise the economy, which is ravaged by high inflation and currency weakness, and external shocks. Haile stated that the inflation rate?adjusted to 15.06 percent in February from 33.3 percent in December 2024. However, it remains high in comparison with other countries in the region and is under renewed pressure ever since Middle East conflict started. Fuel prices rose by more than half during the Iran War, affecting transport, food, and production costs. He said Nigeria should lift restrictions on fuel imports in order to ease inflation. Haile stated that "inflation is still high and under increasing pressure. This poses risks to incomes as well as poverty reduction." Nigeria's external buffers are improving as the foreign exchange reserves increase and volatility eases. However, tighter global financial conditions continue to threaten inflows and borrowing costs, and remittances. Haile stated that the Nigerian fiscal deficit increased slightly to 3.1% GDP in 2025. However, it remains lower than the pre-reform period. Haile also added that the debt-to GDP ratio had fallen for the first time since a decade due to improved fiscal performance and exchange rate valuation gains. The World Bank has forecast a 4.2% economic growth for 2026. They have urged governments to keep their monetary policies tight and to avoid blanket subsides to curb inflation. Reporting by Camillus Eboh, Abuja. Writing by Elisha Gbogbo. Editing by William Maclean.
Senegal election a welcome boost for coup-prone West Africa
For all the drama and the sometimes violent demonstrations in the runup to Senegal's. presidential election, the previous French nest looked set for a. serene shift of power on Monday a welcome increase for. democracy in coupprone West Africa.
Sunday's vote, which was delayed from its initial date of. Feb. 25, went off smoothly with advocates of opposition. candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye commemorating in the streets. overnight as initial results put him securely ahead.
On Monday, both Faye's rival in the judgment coalition, Amadou. Bachelor's degree, and outgoing President Macky Sall praised Faye for. winning the election, before any main arise from the. electoral commission had actually come out.
Organised in uncommon conditions and having overcome a. thousand difficulties, the March 24 governmental election will. remain in our political history as one of ... the most. transparent, serene and genuine, Bachelor's degree said.
The people of Senegal sealed the health of our. democracy.
Sall himself, who in February tried to hold off the election. by 10 months a few hours ahead of the start of marketing, said. Sunday's vote was a triumph for Senegal's democracy.
Senegal had actually been currently rocked by fatal demonstrations. in between 2021 and 2023, partly linked to fears that Sall would. usage modifications to the constitution to extend his hold on power as. other West African presidents had actually done before him.
His decision to hold off the vote triggered more. presentations, reviving worries over a democratic backslide in. an area that has actually seen 8 military coups in three years. It. also risked plunging Senegal into chaos, Babacar Ndiaye, analyst. and research study director at West African Think Tank Wathi, said.
However after weeks of tension and another 2 attempts to. hold off the vote and extend Sall's required - all turned down by. Senegal's Constitutional Council and the Supreme Court -. millions showed up calmly at the polls on Sunday. No major. events were reported.
Whenever Senegal has actually been on the edge of the precipice,. the country has actually handled to pull back, which is a testament of. the strength of its democracy, Ndiaye informed .
What I saw yesterday, I had actually not seen before. Individuals wanted. to vote and make their voice heard. That issue of the tried. post ponement left a bitter taste, he included.
NEXT TEST IN SOUTH AFRICA
While numerous observers will wait to see how Sall's supporters. take the defeat of his prospect, occasions so far have as soon as again. set Senegal apart in a continent that has a history of. contentious elections, typically culminating in violent turmoils.
Current votes in Nigeria, Kenya and the Democratic Republic. of Congo saw losing candidates decline the results. The next. significant test for democracy on the continent will be the. parliamentary vote in South Africa on May 29, where the ANC is. expected to lose its bulk for the first time because the end. of apartheid in 1994.
Senegal also stands out in an area that has actually seen rapturous. crowds require to the streets to celebrate their militaries taking. power in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea, where assistance for. democracy has actually dropped steeply over the previous years, according to. Afrobarometer information.
Those nations have seen Russia's impact grow at the. expense of standard allies such as France and the United. States, and are likewise battling Jihadist militants.
The country's organizations, especially the Constitutional. Council, saved the electoral process, and some state they conserved. Senegal's democracy, Ndiaye stated.
Sall was swept to power in 2012 on a wave of popular assistance. which has considering that soured.
The jailing of opposition challengers, crackdowns on. demonstrations and transfer to constrain Senegal's varied media. landscape had actually led Human Rights Enjoy to question the. authorities' commitment to holding free and fair elections.
Political commentator Ibou Fall informed that Senegal. has a history of resisting efforts to tamper with its. organizations, mentioning the public backlash in 2011 when former. president Abdoulaye Wade tried to alter the constitution.
In truth, Senegal's credibility as a democracy has been. regularly tested given that independence
(source: Reuters)