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Fire in Cyprus leaves two dead and homes burning
A massive wildfire ravaged southern Cyprus, destroying houses and threatening local communities in the midst of an intense heatwave. Firefighters struggled to contain a blaze that erupted midday on Wednesday in a mountainous area north of Limassol, a southern city. The fire was sparked by high winds and scorching temperatures. Two people died in an abandoned vehicle overnight, and authorities continue to try to rescue people trapped in Lofou village, which is about 26 kilometers (16 miles) away from Limassol. The situation is extremely difficult, and the firefront is massive. "All forces have been mobilised," Cypriot president Nikos Christodoulides said to reporters earlier. On Wednesday, temperatures on the island soared to 43 degrees Centigrade (90.4 Fahrenheit), triggering a yellow weather alert. Conditions are expected worsen on Thursday with temperatures reaching 44 degrees, the highest of the year. After a brief pause due to darkness, firefighting aircraft are expected to resume operations at first light. The fire brigade reported that homes were on fire in the Souni and Zanakia communities at dawn Thursday. Konstantinos Letymbiotis, the government spokesperson, said that Cyprus had requested assistance through the Civil Protection Mechanism of the European Union. Spain is expected to send at least two aircrafts on Thursday. Jordan has also offered assistance. Cyprus has been suffering from a prolonged drought that has pushed water resources to critical levels. The area affected is located just north of Cyprus’s largest reservoir, Kouris. On Wednesday, it was only at 15.5% capacity. (Written by Michele Kambas, edited by Christopher Cushing).
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The Australian dollar and Asian shares are both rising on the back of trade optimism
The Australian dollar and shares in Asia rose to an eight-month peak on Thursday, as the demand for higher yielding investments was boosted by optimism about earnings and trade. Tokyo's Topix index of shares reached an all-time record, after Wall Street set new records overnight. A trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. had stoked speculation that more deals were likely to be announced soon in order to avoid sweeping tariffs. Nasdaq futures and S&P futures both rose after Alphabet, the parent company of Google, beat expectations to start off "Magnificent Seven' earnings season. The U.S. also has agreements with the Philippines, Indonesia and the European Union. In a podcast, Brian Martin, ANZ’s head of G3 Economics, stated that "worst-case concerns about tariffs" in the U.S. have probably subsided to some extent. However, tariffs continue to rise and this is a barrier for consumers. According to European Commission officials, the EU and U.S. have reached a deal on a trade agreement that would impose 5% tariffs on European imports while waiving duty on certain items. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that U.S. officials and Chinese officials would meet in Stockholm, Sweden next week. The second quarter earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. 23% of companies in the S&P 500 have already reported. LSEG data shows that 85% of those companies have surpassed Wall Street expectations. The Magnificent Seven, whose performance has pushed indexes up to previous peaks are the focus of attention for guidance regarding spending and returns on artificial intelligence (AI). Alphabet's capital expenditure plans were increased as it beat expectations and cited the massive demand for cloud computing services. Tesla, the electric car manufacturer, posted its worst quarter-on-quarter sales decline in over a decade. Its profit also fell short of analyst expectations. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%. Japan's Topix index surged for the second day in a row, rising by 1.4% and surpassing its previous record set last year. The Australian dollar (a common proxy for risk-taking sentiment) was trading at $0.66. This is just a few cents off the $0.6604 it had earlier reached, which marked its highest level since November 2024. The U.S. Dollar dropped by 0.1% to 146.38 Japanese yen. U.S. crude rose 0.4% to $65.5 per barrel. Gold spot traded at $3.390.84 an ounce, up by 0.1%. Early trades saw the pan-region Euro Stoxx50 futures jump 1.3% to 5,435, and German DAX Futures rise 1.3%. The S&P 500 E-minis and Nasdaq Contracts rose 0.4%.
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Prices of oil rise on US trade optimism and drop in crude stocks
Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over U.S. trade negotiations that would ease pressure on the global economy and a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures rose 24 cents or 0.4% to $68.75 per barrel at 0032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 25 cents or 0.4% to $65.50 a barrel. Following President Donald Trump’s deal with Japan, the markets closely monitored developments in U.S. - European Union trade negotiations. In exchange for $550 billion in loans and investments destined for the United States, the agreement reduces auto import duties and spares Tokyo new levies. Hiroyuki Kikakuwa, Chief Strategist of Nissan Securities Investment (a division of Nissan Securities), said that the optimism of progress in tariff talks with the U.S. helped avoid a worst case scenario. He added that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. China trade talks, and peace negotiations between Ukraine, and Russia, is limiting future gains. WTI, he predicted, will likely stay in a range between $60, and $70. Two European diplomats stated on Wednesday that both the EU and U.S. were moving towards a trade agreement that could include an U.S. base tariff of 15% on EU goods, as well as possible exemptions. This could pave the way for a second major trade deal following the Japan agreement. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 3.2 millions barrels last week to 419,000,000 barrels. This was more than analysts expected in a poll, which predicted a draw of 1.6 million barrels. Geopolitical tensions remain in the spotlight. On Wednesday, Russia and Ukraine discussed further prisoner exchanges in Istanbul, but the two sides are still far apart over ceasefire terms, and even a meeting of their leaders is possible. Two industry sources reported on Wednesday that foreign oil tankers are temporarily banned from loading in Russia's major Black Sea ports because of new regulations. This effectively stops exports through a consortium owned by U.S. Energy Majors. On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said that sanctions against Russian oil could be considered to end the conflict in Ukraine. The EU agreed on Friday to its 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This included a lower price cap for Russian oil. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Yuka Obayashi)
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Study says India's export engine is facing carbon headwinds due to the tightening of net-zero regulations
A study released on Thursday by Net Zero Tracker (a coalition of Oxford-based research groups) showed that India's exports were becoming more vulnerable to climate risks. Over two-thirds of shipments outbound are now subject to stricter net-zero regulations. According to Reserve Bank of India data, India exported goods worth $824.9 Billion in 2024-25. Exports made up about a fifth (or more) of India's gross domestic product. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (tariffs on greenhouse gases associated with the production of certain imported products) are being implemented by the UK and European Union to tighten their carbon policies. Net Zero Tracker stated that "high carbon emissions are quickly becoming a trade threat and India's exported are already being pressured to decarbonise." "For India, it is clear that the challenge lies in maintaining and growing export competitiveness as well as reducing embodied emission across sectors." According to Net Zero Tracker, coal is responsible for nearly three-fourths of India's electrical grid. This increases emissions in both goods and services including the IT and professional service sectors. According to the study, rival exporting nations are supplying the exact same markets with up to 20 times greater efficiency in carbon terms. This is largely because of cleaner energy systems. India is currently negotiating with its key trading partners including the UK, the U.S. and Canada. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms set to come into effect in Europe by 2026 could impose tariffs for carbon-intensive imports. This would threaten India's ability to access these markets, according to Net Zero Tracker. India has committed to reach zero net emissions by 2070. Earlier this year, it released a draft taxonomy for sustainable finance to direct investment to low-carbon industries. Before the COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil, this November, a new national emission-reduction goal is expected.
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Lynas Rare Earths Q4 revenues beat estimates; enters magnet agreement with JS Link
Lynas Rare Earths, based in Australia, beat expectations for the fourth quarter revenue on Thursday. This was due to a higher average selling price of all rare earth products. It also announced that it had signed a deal with Korea's JS Link for magnet manufacturing. Barrenjoey reports that the world's biggest producer of rare Earths outside China reported sales revenue of A$170.2m ($112,33m) for the third quarter ending June 30. This is up from A$136.6m a year ago and beats Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of A$155m. Lynas announced separately a deal to create a value chain for rare earth permanent magnets in Malaysia with JS Link, a Korean permanent magnet manufacturer. It said that the collaboration included plans for a 3,000 ton neodymium-magnet manufacturing facility near Lynas advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is supplying light and heavy rare-earth materials to support the production. However, this non-binding contract has yet to be finalized. Lynas' average selling price during the quarter was A$60.2, compared to A$42.3, a kilogram sold a year ago. The company also flagged improved production across facilities, with quarterly production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide boosted by a new line at Lynas Malaysia. The total rare-earth dioxide (REO), or the amount of REO produced, was 3,212 tons for the quarter ending June 30, compared to 2,188 tons reported one year earlier.
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Raychaudhuri: Mainland China capital boom fuels Hong Kong investment boom
Hong Kong's gateway to China is strengthened by the influx of mainland Chinese investors. This investment boosts market liquidity and depth, while also strengthening its position. This capital flow could be slowed by short-term headwinds, but the market's diversification and innovation will likely propel it over time. Stock Connect, launched in November 2014 by the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges, allowed mainland Chinese investors trade certain stocks listed in Hong Kong. This is known as "Southbound Stock Connect", while also facilitating flow in the other direction. Between 2017 and 2023, the Connect programme expanded to include interest rate swaps, bonds and ETFs. The Southbound route has seen a 32% annual compound growth rate since 2015, which was the first year the programme was fully operational. According to Hong Kong Exchange data, Southbound's average daily turnover has grown from 1.6% in 2015. to 18% by 2024. What is the EXUBERANCE all about? Since the program began, Onshore investors consistently have bought more than they sold through Southbound. This has resulted in net inflows each year. The flows were good but volatile until 2023. After that, they exploded. In 2024 net inflows were more than twice as high, and this figure was nearly equaled within the first six month of 2025. What is the reason for this interest in Hong Kong listed stocks? Geographic diversification is a major factor, since mainland Chinese investors are limited in their options for overseas assets. Investors can also look to gain exposure to key sectors, such as insurance or technology. Onshore indices do not include, for example, the leading Chinese internet platforms Tencent, Alibaba, or AIA, leader in the insurance industry, and global bank HSBC. Many stocks popular with mainland investors are listed in both Hong Kong and onshore, which again raises the question as to why capital is flowing into Hong Kong. It could be a simple matter of price. These dual-listed shares are valued at much lower prices in Hong Kong than they are in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Prior to the Stock Connect programme, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index tracked the average premium for onshore "A shares". This was 3.2%. The value of the shares soared to 34.1% as soon after. This was due to an influx of international capital into mainland Chinese stocks via Northbound Connect. Although it has decreased recently, the premium is still high. HONG KONG IMPACT Hong Kong's equity market has become more liquid and deeper due to the influx of capital. This makes it attractive for both local companies looking for new listings, and onshore Chinese firms seeking additional listings. Hong Kong was the largest IPO market in the world in the first half 2025 with a total of $14 billion, easily surpassing Nasdaq which came in second with just under $9 billion. The Stock Connect program has, at the same time, strengthened Hong Kong’s position as a renminbi offshore hub, as HKE argued. It has also driven robust cross border regulatory cooperation, including regular meetings and the exchange of ideas. RAPID ROTATION Hong Kong's markets could experience increased volatility as a result of the onshore money rush, particularly given the fact that mainland Chinese investors have historically traded in a way that involves rapid switching from one theme or sector to another. Onshore investors, for example, flocked towards the internet platforms Alibaba, Tencent and the technology giant Xiaomi throughout 2024 and 2025 only to see significant volumes sold this past May/June. Some common preferences among Chinese onshore investors, like the desire for high dividend yields could also begin to influence the relative performance in Hong Kong. CNOOC and China Construction Bank, which are both low-growth companies with high dividends, have been Southbound favorites this year. This is based on the monthly "Top 10 list". HEADWINDS FOR SHORT-TERM What could possibly derail the current exuberance? One headwind could be a possible weakening of renminbi, which would make HKD stocks more expensive to mainlanders. Chinese investors may also be discouraged from diversifying their portfolios overseas if mainland markets perform better. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has risen 23.8% in 2025, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite index's 5.5% increase. The direction of flows could be reversed if return prospects changed. The geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are also a persistent problem. Hong Kong allows money to move in and out without many restrictions. This exposes the city to risks from political conflicts. Chinese investors may be more likely to retain their capital if a negative political outcome occurs. Most of these headwinds will likely be short-term, but the direction of travel over the long term is still clear. The Mainland Chinese savings pool is a huge reservoir of capital that has largely remained untapped. PBOC reported that the total deposits at June 2025 would be RMB 320 trillion (US$ 44 trillion). In March 2025, the total amount of overseas portfolio investments was only $1.58 trillion. This is less than 4% compared to domestic household deposits. It is likely that the capital rush into Hong Kong's markets will only get started as mainland Chinese investors continue to diversify. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI, can help you keep up. Follow ROI and X on LinkedIn.
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First Quantum anticipates an increase in Cobre Panama Maintenance Costs
First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian mining company, said that it expects the costs of maintaining its copper mine in Panama to increase from $17 to $18 millions per month. Panama approved in May the company's Preservation and Safe Management Plan (P&SM), allowing it to export the copper concentrate that was stored on the site, as well as restarting a power station at Cobre Panama. After massive protests by local residents, the site was shut down in 2023. The mine, which contributed 1% of global copper production to the world, was shut down in 2023, and this had a negative impact on Panama's as well as the company's finances. First Quantum has begun shipping the 120,000 tons of copper that were left on the site in June. The company announced on Wednesday that the final shipment will be sent soon. This should put an end to the uncertainty surrounding the copper stockpiled. The maintenance costs for the Cobre Panama Mine averaged around $15 million per year during the second quarter. The plan allows imports of fuel for Cobre Panama to restart its thermoelectric power station, which is anticipated in the fourth quarter 2025. First Quantum stated that the increase in P&SM cost of up to $3,000,000 could be offset by selling excess power for Panama's grid. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
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Texas lawmakers investigate flash flooding as death toll reaches 137
Texas lawmakers held a special meeting on Wednesday to discuss for the first-time the deadly floods which hit the Texas Hill Country in this month and killed at least 137. Senator Charles Perry is the chairperson of the joint Senate and House committee that investigated the preparations for and responses to the floods. The committee does not wish to place blame but instead seeks "constructive policies which will reduce future deaths." Texas Governor Greg Abbott put the investigation at the top of the agenda for a special session of the legislature that began on Monday. Abbott announced on his social media accounts that the death count from the flash floods of July 4, 2014, had reached 137. A man and a young girl were still missing. Nim Kidd was the first to be called as a witness by the lawmakers. He called the state's vast emergency response system fragmented. Each of the 254 counties has control over evacuating their residents. This order was not issued in the worst-hit areas of the country earlier this month. Kidd said that he would need better radar systems in his home, better communication systems to alert local leaders and residents and more resources to help residents evacuate or stay put. This high death toll is one of the most deadly U.S. flooding events in recent decades. It raises questions about the absence of flash flood warning sirens, especially in the hardest-hit Kerr County. Many people have expressed concerns about the vacancies in National Weather Service offices as a result of staffing reductions under President Donald Trump. The next meeting of the legislative committee to investigate the floods is scheduled for July 31st in Kerr County. The committee will prepare a report that will be sent to the Texas Senate and House for consideration in drafting legislation during the special session of a month. (Reporting from Brad Brooks, Colorado; editing by David Gregorio.)
IMF says Nigeria must re-calibrate its budget to lower oil prices
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Nigeria must adapt its budget for 2025 to lower oil costs and increase cash transfers in order to protect the most vulnerable sections of its population who face hunger and extreme poverty.
The IMF released the results of the routine "Article IV", assessment of Nigerian economic policies. It said that the growth was steady, but low in terms of per capita and inflation remained high. The Fund forecast that the economy of Nigeria would grow at 3.4% in this year, and 3.2% by 2026.
Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is being squeezed by the relatively low crude prices on international markets. On Wednesday, they were trading at $68 per barrel.
Axel Schimmelpfennig is the mission chief of the Fund for Nigeria. He said: "The international economy environment in which Nigeria lives and operates is marked by very, very high uncertainty. In particular, international oil prices volatility impacts Nigeria directly on the fiscal and external balances, as well as the inflation."
It was important that policymakers build and maintain buffers, while remaining ready to react to shocks and seize opportunities.
He said that the main challenge is to combat high poverty and food security.
Since 2007, the Nigerian government has been providing direct cash transfers to the poorest section of its population. However, it has had difficulty in scaling up the program due to a lack data about their impact as well as the fact that a large number of people do not have a bank account.
Nigeria's assumptions of oil production at 2 million barrels a day and oil prices of $75 per barrel have a significant impact on the 2025 budget.
International Brent crude futures soared last month as a result of tensions in the Middle East. However, they are now under pressure due to a change in policy from the OPEC+, a group that includes Nigeria, in order to regain share on the market rather than to curtail the supply.
Schimmelpfennig told journalists that "achieving the government's budget targets for 2025 will require additional actions, reflecting largely the fall in oil prices since the budget was approved."
He added that it was important to keep the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP the same in 2024 compared to the year before.
Fund stated that recouping savings on fuel subsidies and making administrative gains can mobilize some revenues at home. However, to reduce inflation and maintain stability, central banks must maintain a strict stance with a positive rate of real interest.
The savings from fuel subsides would be 2% of the GDP in 2024.
Schimmelpfennig, when asked about the naira and Nigeria's forex markets, said that the central bank and government had made fundamental and far-reaching reforms. As a result of these reforms the supply and demand has been more balanced.
When we speak to investors, the mood is positive. He said that they could invest in Nigeria and then withdraw their profits whenever they wanted. You can see that the parallel market rate and the official rate are aligned. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, editing by Dhara Raasinghe & Barbara Lewis
(source: Reuters)