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China's North and West on Alert after Deadly Floods Caused by Sweeping Rains
China's west and north were braced on Thursday for flash floods, as the annual "Plum Rains" left a path of destruction. This prompted thousands of rescue workers from across China to help pull people out of floodwaters. The red alerts traced the rains from the southwest province of Sichuan, through the northwestern provinces of Gansu and Liaoning to the northeast province. The state media reported that over 1,000 rescue workers had been dispatched on Wednesday to the town Taiping, in central China's Henan Province, after torrential rainfall caused a river nearby to burst it banks. Five people were killed in a flash flooding and three others are still missing. On Thursday morning, trains to the capital Beijing were suspended. Flight delays and cancellations occurred at one of the airports in the city late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Meteorologists have linked climate change to extreme rainfall and severe floods. These events pose a major challenge to policymakers, as they threaten to overwhelm the ageing flood defences and displace millions. They also threaten to wreck havoc on China’s $2.8 trillion agriculture sector. Natural disasters caused economic losses of over $10 billion in July last year, during which the "Plum Rains" - so named because they coincide with plums maturing along China's Yangtze River at the time of the East Asia Monsoon – usually reach their peak. Local media reported that in China's southwest province of Guangxi several buildings have slid over the past two days as their foundations gave out due to waterlogged soil. The national meteorological center forecasts scorching heat along eastern coast of the country.
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Oil drops on signs of weak US Demand ahead of Key Jobs Report
On Thursday, oil prices fell, reversing the gains of the previous session. This was due to concerns about weak U.S. Demand after data from the government showed an unexpected build-up in inventories. Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.35% to $68.87 per barrel at 0044 GMT, after rising 3% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 24 cents or 0.36% to $67.21 per barrel, after previously rising 3.1%. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that domestic crude stocks rose by 3.8 millions barrels, to 419,000,000 barrels. In a poll, analysts had predicted a drop of 1.8 millions barrels. The gasoline demand fell to 8,6 million barrels a day, causing concern about the consumption during peak summer driving in the United States. The benchmarks rose on Wednesday, after Iran passed a law that suspended cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog. This sparked fears the long-running dispute over Middle East producer Iran's nuclear program could once again escalate into an armed conflict. The U.S. reached a deal with Vietnam that imposes 20% tariffs on most of the Southeast Asian nation's exports. This gives investors a feeling of economic stability in international trade, which could lead to a higher demand for crude oil. Analysts said that the market will closely monitor the release of Thursday's key U.S. employment report to determine the timing and depth of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in the second half this year. Lower interest rates may spur economic activity and, in turn, increase oil demand. Analysts cautioned that there was no correlation between the private payrolls report and government data. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Nicole Jao)
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Bunge and grain handler Viterra complete long-delayed mega merger
Bunge Global, a global agribusiness, announced that it had officially closed the long-delayed $34 billion mega deal with Glencore-backed Viterra. This announcement was made two years ago. The merger creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, at a time when slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector. Bunge closed Wednesday's trading 1.4% higher. Bunge, based in Missouri, has experienced a dramatic turn-around since the deal was announced. In April 2019, Greg Heckman took over as CEO of the company after Soren Schroder was forced to resign by investors. The Chinese market regulator approved the merger on conditional terms last month, clearing the final hurdle. Bunge announced on Wednesday that Heckman would remain as CEO of the combined business, while Bunge's Chief Financial Officer John Neppl would also retain his position. Viterra CEO David Mattiske, and Bunge co-president Julio Garros will serve as co-chief operational officers. Analysts say that the merger with Netherlands' Viterra will enhance Bunge’s grain exporting business and its oilseed processing business in the United States. Bunge has a smaller US presence than rivals ADM or Cargill. Bunge will also be able to expand its export capacity, as well as their grain storage and handling capabilities in Canada and Australia. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed in Chicago, with Karl Plume reporting from Chicago)
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Former Jan. 6 defendant sentenced to life for plotting to kill FBI agents
According to court records and the U.S. Justice Department, a man who participated in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 was sentenced on Wednesday to life imprisonment for conspiring to murder the FBI agents who were investigating him. Court records indicate that Edward Kelley, a former federal employee, was convicted of conspiring to murder federal workers, solicitation of a crime violent and influencing an official of the federal government by threats in November. The prosecution claimed that Kelley and another man planned to attack an FBI field office located in Knoxville, Tennessee using car bombs, incendiary devices, and drones. According to a Justice Department release, he was recorded discussing his plans to "take their office out" if arrested. The prosecution alleged that Kelley had compiled a "kill-list" of federal law enforcers based in the region and discussed assassinating FBI agents in their homes or in public places. Austin Carter, his co-defendant in the plot, has pleaded guilty and will be sentenced by August. Kelley was found guilty of several charges in a separate trial, including assaulting police officers, for his involvement in the storming of the Capitol. This case was dismissed in January, before Kelley was sentenced. It was part of the sweeping clemency granted by President Donald Trump to all 1,600 criminally charged individuals in connection with the attack. The attack on Capitol Hill was a failed effort by Trump supporters in order to prevent congressional certification that Trump had lost the 2020 presidential elections to Democrat Joe Biden. Kelley said that Trump's pardon of the Tennessee case should be extended because it related to his behavior at the Capitol. The Justice Department during Trump's second term opposed this effort, and a later judge rejected it.
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Greek firefighters fight wildfires on the island of Crete
Greek firefighters fought a fire that raged in the popular vacation destination Crete on Wednesday, burning forestland, threatening homes, and forcing the evacuation of tourists and residents from at least four settlements. The Greek fire brigade said that at least 155 firefighters were battling the flames along the southeast coast of the largest island of Greece, in the municipality Ierapetra. They were assisted by 38 engines, water trucks and other vehicles. The fire, which started in the afternoon was exacerbated by strong winds, which hampered efforts to fight it and reignited its fronts. The fire brigade reported that more reinforcements would be arriving by Athens via boat and plane. The fire is still burning and is very difficult to control, a fire brigade officer said under condition of anonymity. He attributed the difficulties of the operation the strong winds as well as the terrain. Local TV stations reported some houses had been damaged. No injuries have been reported so far. The authorities had ordered the evacuation earlier of Achlia, and three other settlements within the area. Local officials reported that 3,000 people who evacuated villages earlier were moved to temporary shelters. Greece, located at the southernmost tip of Europe, is frequently hit by wildfires, especially during its hot, dry summers. However, authorities blame a rapidly changing climate for the more destructive fires that have occurred in recent years. On Wednesday night, Greek firefighters also tried to control a wildfire that was raging uncontrollably in the northern Chalkidiki region and on the island Kythira. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Renee Maltezou)
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Stocks reach record highs, gilt yields soar on Finance Minister uncertainty
The global stock market rose to record levels on Wednesday, after U.S. labor data revealed an unexpectedly low reading. Meanwhile, British government bond yields soared amid speculation over the future of Britain's finance minister. ADP's National Employment Report shows that private payrolls fell by 33,000 last month, after a downwardly-revised 29,000 job increase in May. This is well below the 95,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by. The data is released ahead of the government's payroll report on Thursday, but there is very little correlation between them. On Thursday, we will also see the weekly initial claims for unemployment. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, market expectations of a rate cut in July by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased to 27% following the release of the data. This is up from 20,7% the previous session. Jim Awad is the senior managing director of Clearstead Advisors LLC, New York. "An employment softening that induces the Fed to lower interest rates would be positive. But if it softens excessively, then this would be negative for growth and profit," he said. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow closed at record levels on Wall Street. This was boosted in part by a rebound in Tesla stock after it dropped 5.3% Tuesday. Tesla shares closed at 4.97% higher after the electric carmaker announced its quarterly deliveries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10.52 points or 0.02% to 44,484.42, while the S&P 500 rose by 29.41 points or 0.47% to 6,227.42, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 190.24 or 0.94% to 20,393.13. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 3.84 points or 0.42% to 921.24, after reaching an intraday high of 922.27. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed with a 0.18% gain, boosted by renewable energy stocks and luxury stocks. The yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury notes rose. The benchmark U.S. 10 year note was up 3.4 basis point at 4.283%. British government bond rates surged at one point, jumping almost 23 basis points. This was the highest since October 2022. The jump came after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who appeared visibly upset in parliament a day after announcing a sharply reduced plan to cut benefits, spoke out. The yield of the 10-year government bonds, or gilts, last increased 16.8 basis points to 4.621%. The pound fell 0.83%, to $1.3631. It had dropped as high as 1.35%. This was the biggest percentage decline since June 17th. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currency) rose 0.13% to 96.7 and was on course to end a nine-day decline streak. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1801. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the U.S. will impose a tariff of 20% on Vietnam. This is lower than what was initially announced, as investors wait for progress in other deals. He said previously that he would not consider extending the deadline to negotiate with countries, despite negotiations with Japan failing to progress, but he still expected a deal to be reached with India. The Vietnam-U.S. deal announced today is a positive step in reducing uncertainty around trade. Not only does it have a direct impact on the market, but may also be viewed as indicating that more deals will follow over the next week. Investors also viewed Trump's massive spending and tax bill, which was expected to add $3.3 billion to the national debt and cut taxes. Republicans in the House of Representatives set up a vote that would reveal whether they have enough support to pass the bill out of Congress. U.S. crude rose 3.06%, to settle at $67.35 a barrel. Brent settled at $71.11 per barrel. This was up 2.98% for the day after Iran suspended its cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog.
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Vale reduces forecast for iron ore aggregates production amid market weakness
Vale, a Brazilian miner, has lowered its projections for the production of iron ore pellets in 2025 due to concerns about oversupply and decreased demand for high quality products. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company said that its decision was based on "current market conditions." Analysts say the move is not surprising, given that pellet prices are under pressure. Executives at the miner also emphasize the fact that their portfolio is competitive and flexible, allowing them to adapt to changing market dynamics. Vale's strategy to reduce carbon emissions is based on high-quality iron ore agglomerates. These include both pellets as well as briquettes. "Vale's choice is in line with the current market conditions." Artur Bontempo, Wood Mackenzie's analyst, said that producers are becoming more cautious and some have shifted to fines sales. He said that the steel industry's tightened margins has led mills to prefer cheaper ore of lower quality over pellets with high costs. Samarco's also impacted the market conditions in this year. Growing output . As production ramps up, the joint venture between Vale & BHP will add 8,000,000 tons of pellets & pellet feeds to the market. Vale's revised 2025 outlook was a result of its decision to perform preventive maintenance on the Sao Luis Pelletizing Plant in the third quarter. Production was suspended during this period. RBC Europe analysts said that at mid-point Vale's revised guidance would reduce seaborne supply of pellets by 7 million tonnes, or 6% of the market. They added that the move would benefit Rio Tinto, as it could help to improve premiums in the future. Vale's shares traded in Sao Paulo were up by 4% on Tuesday, boosted by Iron ore prices rise . (Reporting from Gabriel Araujo, Sao Paulo; and Marta Nogueira, Rio de Janeiro. Editing by Andrew Heavens and Natalia Siniawski. Marguerita Chy).
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Stocks reach record highs, and gilt yields soar on uncertainty about the Finance Minister
Global stocks rose on Wednesday, after U.S. labor data revealed a surprising soft reading. Meanwhile, British government bond yields soared amid growing speculation over the future of Britain's finance Minister. ADP's National Employment Report shows that private payrolls fell by 33,000 last month, after a downwardly-revised 29,000 job increase in May. This is well below the 95,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by. The data is released ahead of the government's payroll report on Thursday, but there is very little correlation between them. On Thursday, we will also see the weekly initial claims for unemployment. The market's expectations of a rate cut in July by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased to 27% following the release, from just under 20% the previous session, according CME's FedWatch Tool. "You throw it into the 'doesn’t look good' section and then look forward to tomorrow, which will arguably be much more significant," said Jim Baird. Chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, Southfield, Michigan. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all rose on Wall Street. This was partly due to a rebound in Tesla stock after it dropped by 5.3% Tuesday. Tesla shares rose 4.7% last after the electric carmaker announced its quarterly deliveries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 56.43 points or 0.13% to 44,438.51, while the S&P 500 climbed 19.17 points or 0.31% to 6,217.23; and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 163.36 points or 0.81% to 20,365.78. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 2.62 points or 0.29% to 920.02, after reaching an intraday high of 920.24. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed with a 0.18% gain, boosted by renewable energy stocks and luxury stocks. The yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury notes rose. The benchmark 10-year U.S. note was up 4.9 basis point at 4.298%. British government bond rates surged at one point, jumping almost 23 basis points. This was the highest since October 2022. The jump came after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who appeared visibly upset in parliament a day after the Government dramatically scaled back its plans to reduce benefits, spoke out. The yield of the 10-year Government Bond, or gilt was up 16.8 basis point at 4.621%. The pound fell 0.84%, to $1.3628. It had dropped as high as 1.35%. This was the biggest percentage decline since June 17. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket) rose by 0.19% at 96.82, and was on course to end a nine-day decline streak. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced on social media that the U.S. had reached a deal with Vietnam. He said previously that he would not consider extending the deadline to negotiate trade agreements, even though negotiations with Japan, his top trading partner, had failed to progress. However, he still expected to reach a deal with India. Baird said that the announcement of a Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal "clearly alleviates a piece of the puzzle of uncertainty around trade. Not only because of its direct impact but also as an indication that more is to come in the next week or two, which will all help to relieve what has been causing uncertainty over the past three months." Investors also watched for progress on Trump's massive spending and tax bill, which is expected add $3.3 trillion to national debt and cut taxes. Republicans in the House of Representatives have scheduled a procedural voting on the bill, which could reveal if the party has the support it needs to pass the bill out of Congress. U.S. crude rose 3.09% to $67.38 a barrel while Brent soared to $69.10 a barrel, an increase of 2.98% in one day. This was due to Iran suspending its cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog.
IMF says Nigeria must re-calibrate its budget to lower oil prices
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Nigeria must adapt its budget for 2025 to lower oil costs and increase cash transfers in order to protect the most vulnerable sections of its population who face hunger and extreme poverty.
The IMF released the results of the routine "Article IV", assessment of Nigerian economic policies. It said that the growth was steady, but low in terms of per capita and inflation remained high. The Fund forecast that the economy of Nigeria would grow at 3.4% in this year, and 3.2% by 2026.
Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is being squeezed by the relatively low crude prices on international markets. On Wednesday, they were trading at $68 per barrel.
Axel Schimmelpfennig is the mission chief of the Fund for Nigeria. He said: "The international economy environment in which Nigeria lives and operates is marked by very, very high uncertainty. In particular, international oil prices volatility impacts Nigeria directly on the fiscal and external balances, as well as the inflation."
It was important that policymakers build and maintain buffers, while remaining ready to react to shocks and seize opportunities.
He said that the main challenge is to combat high poverty and food security.
Since 2007, the Nigerian government has been providing direct cash transfers to the poorest section of its population. However, it has had difficulty in scaling up the program due to a lack data about their impact as well as the fact that a large number of people do not have a bank account.
Nigeria's assumptions of oil production at 2 million barrels a day and oil prices of $75 per barrel have a significant impact on the 2025 budget.
International Brent crude futures soared last month as a result of tensions in the Middle East. However, they are now under pressure due to a change in policy from the OPEC+, a group that includes Nigeria, in order to regain share on the market rather than to curtail the supply.
Schimmelpfennig told journalists that "achieving the government's budget targets for 2025 will require additional actions, reflecting largely the fall in oil prices since the budget was approved."
He added that it was important to keep the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP the same in 2024 compared to the year before.
Fund stated that recouping savings on fuel subsidies and making administrative gains can mobilize some revenues at home. However, to reduce inflation and maintain stability, central banks must maintain a strict stance with a positive rate of real interest.
The savings from fuel subsides would be 2% of the GDP in 2024.
Schimmelpfennig, when asked about the naira and Nigeria's forex markets, said that the central bank and government had made fundamental and far-reaching reforms. As a result of these reforms the supply and demand has been more balanced.
When we speak to investors, the mood is positive. He said that they could invest in Nigeria and then withdraw their profits whenever they wanted. You can see that the parallel market rate and the official rate are aligned. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, editing by Dhara Raasinghe & Barbara Lewis
(source: Reuters)