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Aluminium prices rise on concerns about supply, but buyers remain cautious
Aluminium prices rose a little bit on Tuesday, after initially struggling to find a direction. Buyers, still shaken by the price drop in June, were cautious, despite waning stocks and concerns about'supply shortages. Aluminum prices stabilised in the past week, after being battered over the previous week by the expectation of returning Middle East supply and the declining Gulf war risk premium. The prices were supported by renewed supply concerns as well as macroeconomic conditions. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased?0.24% at $7,123 per metric ton as of 0700 GMT. It had hit a session high of $3.136 earlier in the day. In June, the price of aluminium fell by?16%, its largest monthly drop since 2008. In its fourth consecutive session of gains, the most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.46% to 22940 yuan (3,374.47) per ton. Analysts at Sucden Financial wrote that despite the signs of fading downside momentum, "buyers?remain cautious" despite its modest gains. Copper prices fell 0.29% at the LME, and 0.11% at the SHFE. The White House did not make any announcements last week, disappointing traders who were expecting to hear about potential tariffs for refined copper. The market was in a wait-and see mode. Copper has been supported by tariff considerations that have pushed material into U.S. Warehouses. This is in addition to the prospects for demand growth due to AI infrastructure, grid upgrade, and electric vehicles. The U.S. Futures Regulator released data overnight that showed that speculators reduced their bullish positions on Comex during the week ending June 30. The other industrial metals fluctuated as well, but SHFE Zinc, which rose 1.12%, was an exception. The Sucden analysts stated in a?note that zinc is supported by the near-term tightness. Other LME metals saw a 0.15% decrease in zinc, 0.13% increase in lead, 0.16% decline in nickel, and 0.12% drop for tin. Lead was unchanged, nickel was flat, and tin was up 0.21%.
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Market monitors US-Iran Talks
The price of oil rose on Tuesday as traders' anxiety over a lack of progress in peace talks between?the United States?and Iran?overrode any price impact of the slight improvement in shipping through Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose $1.02 or 1.42% to $73.01 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude gained 93 cents or 1.36% to $69.48 per barrel at 0748 GMT. Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "The deal has not been signed yet. So something could still go wrong. And?any comments by either side can raise concerns which helps to underpin the prices. It's also removing some of?the recent intense focus on a rapidly oversupplied market." Iran's Foreign Minister said that talks to reach a final agreement between Tehran and Washington would not happen if U.S. threat continue. This follows Donald Trump's threats to "finish the deal" without a deal. Hansen said that if the price of oil and gas continues to rise, $75 will be the next level to watch. Investors are closely monitoring the talks between the U.S., Iran, and their impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the Iran War began at the end of Feburary, the Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the daily oil and gas supply in the world. Axios, citing US officials, reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched at least two missiles on Monday at commercial ships passing through the Strait. Reports said that the commercial ships suffered significant damage. However, there were no injuries. Shipping data showed that on Tuesday, Japanese supertankers with Saudi Arabian crude were heading to the Strait of Hormuz in order to leave the Gulf. They joined a fleet of previously-stranded vessels which left the Gulf a day before. ANZ analysts stated in a report that oil flows are?recovering slower than expected'. They said that the initial recovery in tanker transits across the Strait of Hormuz had stalled. The vessel crossings were still in single digits and there was no sign of a sustained recovery. Five sources said that Saudi Arabia was considering expanding its crude oil pipeline capacity to the western Red Sea Coast. This would allow the kingdom, and perhaps neighbours, to transport more oil, without having to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has cut the price of its crude oil to Asia by more than 20 years, but it is still more expensive than rival Gulf suppliers. Reporting by Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru, Pranav Mathur and Emily Chow from Singapore. Editing by Jacqueline Wong Jamie Freed Barbara Lewis
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The UK has sanctioned Russia for allegedly developing chemical weapons that killed Navalny
The UK imposed sanctions Monday on two Russian research institutes and their senior staff, alleging that they were involved in Moscow's chemical weapon?program and had developed toxins used to poison Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny. The British government has imposed sanctions to deter Russia from using chemical weapons. This comes ahead of the NATO summit, which will be held in Ankara, the Turkish capital, and follows a similar action by the European Union. Navalny became seriously ill in 2020 on a flight to Siberia. Western laboratories determined that he was poisoned by a Novichok, a type of military-grade nerve agent developed during the Soviet period. Britain and other European Allies claim that Navalny will die in 2024 after being poisoned by Epibatidine. This is a toxin from poison dartfrogs. Russia has denied the accusations that it is responsible for this death. The British government announced on Monday that the sanctioned individuals were involved in developing Epibatidine and Novichok. Foreign Minister?Yvette cooper said that Russia's "repeated" use of chemical weapons was a violation to international law, and a danger to global security. She added, "From the use Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, to Epibatidine, to poisoning Dawn Sturgess, and Alexei Navalny in Siberia to poisoning Dawn Sturgess, Russia continues using barbaric instruments to inflict suffering and death on innocent civilians including in Ukraine." In a Telegram post, the Russian embassy in London stated that it "categorically rejects" such accusations and called them "slander". The embassy claimed that the allegations were being made to promote an imaginary Russian threat and justify a confrontation with Moscow. Novichok was used to poison former Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal, his daughter Yulia, and a civilian in Salisbury in 2018. The victims survived the attack, but Sturgess died after coming into contact with the substance. Last year, a?British inquiry concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin?had to have?ordered' the attack on Skripal by GRU intelligence agents. The Russian government has denied all involvement in the incident and has portrayed it as anti-Russian propagandists. (Reporting and writing by Sam Tabahriti, Muvija M. Editing by William James and Andrew Heavens.
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Indonesia, India sign BrahMos missile deal
The Indonesian Presidential 'palace' announced on Tuesday that India and Indonesia had?signed an agreement on the BrahMos Cruise Missile System. During his two-day trip to Indonesia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited President Prabowo Sibito. This was his first visit to Southeast Asia since 2023. According to a Jakarta announcement that did not provide any details, BrahMos - an India/Russia joint venture missile company - and Indonesia's Defence Ministry signed a deal for the BrahMos system of missile defense. The?reported on Tuesday earlier that India would supply the BrahMos missile defense system to Indonesia and also?the Astra Air-to-Air missile, citing a government official in India. BrahMos stated that it is in advanced discussions with Indonesia for a deal between $200 million to $350 million. It has already signed agreements with its neighbours Vietnam, and the Philippines. The palace also announced that Indonesia's Republikorp - a private defence holding company - and India's Bharat Dynamic - a defence company based in India - had signed an agreement regarding air-to-air weapons. Both countries signed memoranda of understanding to strengthen supply chains for critical minerals, steel and agriculture. Steel Authority of India will establish a joint-venture with Indonesia's Krakatau Steel for the production of stainless steel plates in Indonesia. Prabowo and Modi both said, "We are two of the biggest democracies on the planet." "Partnerships between us will benefit the region." Prabowo, the Indonesian minister of trade and industry, said that India will speed up its negotiations with Indonesia on a preferential trading agreement. Modi stated that the two countries would work together to promote maritime safety and security in Indian Ocean. In their comments, neither leader mentioned the BrahMos agreement. Prabowo and Modi met in New Delhi, India last year. They signed a number of agreements. Modi will be departing for Australia and New Zealand tomorrow. (Reporting from Stanley Widianto and Sakshi dayal in Jakarta; Additional reporting by Anandateresia, Editing by Martin Petty.)
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Saudi Arabia cuts crude oil prices but is this enough? Russell
Saudi Aramco has cut its crude oil price for Asia, for August-loading shipments. This move appeared to signal an intention to regain market shares and recover volumes following the Iran War. Even the record-breaking 'August official selling price' (OSP), may not be sufficient, since crude oil from other Middle East producers and exporters from Africa and the Americas are likely to remain more competitive. Aramco, 'the world's largest oil exporter', has set its OSP at a $1.50 discount to the regional benchmark of Oman/Dubai for August. It was the largest drop in record since 2003, with a $11 reduction from the OSP for July. The OSP also fell to its lowest level since the month of June 2020. At that time, the crude oil market in the world was massively oversupplied. Prices were also at their lowest levels for decades due to the COVID-19 locksdowns. The current situation is reminiscent of 2020, in that the market narrative has changed dramatically to expect a surplus of supply. This is largely due to the belief that the conflict between?United States & Iran's over. This assumption could be tested in the future by the events, and the two parties are still far from an agreement that would cement the ceasefire of 60 days agreed on last month. Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers assume that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and that any vessel seeking to pass through the narrow waterway can do so even if it is under Iranian control. Aramco's decision to reduce the OSPs, which take about 80% their oil to Asia, is probably a move by the company to regain market share. According to Kpler's data, Saudi Arabia exported 4.53 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). The June shipments were higher than the 3.74 million bpd of May. This was the lowest Kpler has ever recorded going back to 2013. However, they are still 2 million bpd lower than the 6.55 million bpd average for the three months before the U.S. & Israeli attack on Iran. CHINA MOVES Aramco's key market is China. It is the world's largest crude importer and a market where Saudi Arabia has lost market share. China's imports of Saudi Arabia were estimated at 705,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. This is up from the 12-year low 626,300 barrels per day in June, but less than half what they averaged for the three-month period leading up to Iran conflict, which was 1.48 million barrels per day. Aramco's massive increase in OSPs was a response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which impacted Middle East crude supply. It is not surprising that China reduced its imports of Saudi Arabian crude. Aramco was also able to redirect a large portion of its exports to Yanbu, a port located on the Red Sea. However, this came at a high cost to Asian refiners. The OSP for Arab Light reached a record-high of $19.50 over the average Oman/Dubai price for May-loading shipments. China has also reduced its imports from other countries, as shown by Kpler data, which shows that seaborne arrivals in June were the lowest since January 2016, and roughly half the levels before the Iran conflict. China's track record is that it has cut imports when the prices are rising sharply but also increased arrivals when the prices fall. It may be that the size of Aramco's cut in August-loading cargoes is enough to entice China's state-controlled major refiners to buy full allocations. It's still not certain, since crude from other Middle East countries such as Kuwait and Iraq, or the United Arab Emirates, is offered at a greater discount. The UAE has been offering several dollar discounts per barrel since it left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ in?May. This is much higher than the $1.50 Aramco had announced for its August shipments. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., the main oil producer in the Emirates, plans to increase its crude output to 5 million barrels per day by the end of next year. This will enable it to boost exports to a level higher than the 3.5 million barrels per day that was achieved during the three months prior to the Iran War. Overall, crude oil market seems to be returning rapidly to growth in supply and price wars for market share. This outcome is still dependent on the Strait of Hormuz being fully and sustainably opened. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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ADNOC Distribution will buy Shell's downstream South Africa Business
ADNOC Distribution is a subsidiary owned by Abu Dhabi’s state oil giant. It announced on Tuesday that it had signed a definitive agreement to purchase 100% of Shell’s downstream business in South Africa, as the company pursues its expansion abroad. The company stated that the implied enterprise value for 100% of the shares capital was about $1 billion, before adjustments for working capital and net debt at closing. ADNOC Distribution announced that the deal for Shell Downstream South Africa, which includes wholesale fuel, aviation, and lubricants operations as well as 580 company and dealer owned fuel stations, will close in 2027, subject to regulatory approvals. The Abu Dhabi listed retailer, which is owned by ADNOC in majority, is expanding overseas as it strives to become a major player in fuel retailing and convenience. South Africa will be its fourth market, after the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, where it bought a 50% stake of TotalEnergies Marketing Egypt in 2023. ADNOC Distribution stated that the acquisition would boost earnings per share in the first year following completion by 6%. ADNOC Distribution will retain a 72% stake in SDSA, after the sale of a 28% share to a local partner and employee stock-option plans, according to South Africa's Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act. ADNOC Distribution has signed a long-term license agreement that will allow it to retain the Shell?brand? for?the retail service station and lubricants businesses. The CEO Bader Said Al Lamki stated in a statement that the proposed acquisition marked a significant milestone in ADNOC Distribution’s international growth strategy. It also reflected our confidence in South Africa, a well-regulated and high-potential fuel retail sector. As of 2025, SDSA operated 360 convenience stores and had fuel volumes of about 3.5 billion litres. A&O Shearman & ENS served as legal counsel to ADNOC Distribution. BofA Securities acted as the exclusive financial advisor.
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Saudi oil price reduction unlikely to convince Asia buyers who are already satisfied, traders say
Saudi Arabian crude sold to Asia has seen its price drop the most in'more than 20 years, but the grade is still more expensive to lift compared to some Gulf rivals. This reduces the appetite for oil from the OPEC linchpin. On Monday, the world's largest exporter cut the??official selling price (OSP), for its flagship Arab Light oil to $1.50 per barrel below the average Oman and Dubai quotations for Asia. This is a $11 reduction from the previous months. The OSPs of its four other grades were also reduced by $11 per barrel. The sudden shift is due to the U.S./Iran interim agreement in June, which has led to more shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This has also resulted in a resumption of loading of oil and lowered global oil prices. Oil traders stated that the sanctions waiver for Iran crude sales has increased competition among sellers. They also said that lifting crude from within 'the Gulf' still carried a certain risk due to the fragile truce between the U.S. The sharp monthly cuts in?Saudi OSPs were not surprising, as Middle Eastern spot grades traded at even greater discounts," said Vortexa Analyst Emma Li. Li stated that "weak Asian demand from China in conjunction with the waiver of sanctions on Iranian crude oil has intensified the competition between sellers and shifted market to buyers' favor." Saudi crude oil prices reached all-time-highs in May, after the U.S. - Iran?war stopped ships from sailing the Strait of Hormuz where a quarter of global oil supply used to flow. To boost demand, other Gulf producers such as Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., Iraq's SOMO and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. are offering crude oil at steep discounts. The National Iranian Oil Co. is attempting to revive the buying interest of former Asian customers, beyond independent refiners and China, during the 60-day U.S. sanctions waiver. SAUDI CRUDE IS 'WAY EXPENSIVELY MORE' Multiple sources from Asian refineries and trading companies said that August-loading Saudi Crude will cost a few extra dollars per barrel than other Gulf grades. Chartering a tanker for entry into the Gulf remains expensive. Why would I purchase more Saudi oil when I can get Upper zakum at a -$7 price? A source at an Indian refinery said this. A second trader stated: "Saudi crude oil inside the strait is way more expensive." He said that ADNOC's Upper Zakum Crude is being sold at $6-$8 per barrel less than Dubai's quotes for the transfer of oil from ship to ship at Oman's Sohar port. The cost of chartering a Very large Crude Carrier was $4-$5 per barrel. He said that the cost of loading a VLCC which can transport 2 million barrels at the Saudi port of Ras Tanura in the Gulf would be more than twice as much, resulting in a more expensive economics. One trade source estimated it would cost $15 per barrel more to transport oil from the Gulf than from outside. Some sources claim that the state oil company will continue to sell its crude on the spot market in order to compete with other Gulf producers. One trader stated that Saudi Arabia is trying to?prop up prices? by refusing a price war. The August OSP, he said, is higher than Dubai benchmark. Dubai swaps for Monday were about $3.70 per barrel lower. He said that Aramco could lose market share in Asia if they continue to hold on to their prices. Reporting by Florence Tan, Siyi Liu and Nidhi verma from New Delhi.
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New York Times Business News - July 7,
These are the most popular?stories from the New York Times business pages. The New York Times has not?verified?these?stories and cannot?guarantee?their accuracy. U.S. president Donald Trump will likely restore the rights of Turkey to buy F-35 stealth jets at the NATO summit, which would reverse a 7-year-old ban imposed by Trump himself. Canada announced on Monday that it has selected ThyssenKrupp to build a fleet of submarines in collaboration with the Norwegian, German and Canadian governments. This is a move towards reducing Canada's military and economic dependence on the United States. Walmart announced on Monday that it would be slashing the prices of beef, produce, drinks and other products, such as toys, summer clothing and grills. This was a move which U.S. president Donald Trump attempted to claim credit for on the 250th anniversary of his country. Samsung Electronics announced on Tuesday a second-quarter operating loss of 89.4 trillion South Korean won ($58.69billion) that was 20 times greater than last year's $3.09billion. This was due to a rise in demand for memory chip used in artificial intelligence data centers.
China's CATL obtains safety permit for restarting production at flagship lithium Mine
CATL, a Chinese company, has received a safety production permit for the flagship Jianxiawo Mine. This is a major regulatory hurdle that will allow production to resume after a nearly year-long suspension.
According to Credit China, an official website that tracks corporate and individual compliance, the Chinese battery giant obtained the permit on 29 June. It will be valid until 27 February 2028.
CATL announced in August that it had ceased operations at the Jianxiawo Mine, located in eastern China's Yuchun city, when its previous license expired.
The stoppage triggered a temporary rise in the price of lithium futures, and stocks in lithium-miners. It also sparked speculation that China would crack down on excess supply.
CATL was forced to rely on external suppliers of?lithium after the mine shut down, according to a report in October, which cited sources with first-hand knowledge.
According to Australian government data, the Jianxiawo Mine 'has a production capacity of 46,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate per year, which is 3% of global output in 2025. Reporting by Ethan Wang, Lewis Jackson and Thomas Derpinghaus; editing by Tom Hogue and Thomas Derpinghaus
(source: Reuters)