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Americans give economy record low marks, a sign of doom for Republicans
Americans have a sour view of the U.S. Economy to a level 'never seen before. The stiffest inflation for four years has exacerbated the political risk facing President Donald Trump. Some administration officials are concerned that he is focusing on the affordability issues for voters while he focuses on the war on Iran. Price increases are a major issue for U.S. citizens. The latest inflationary surge is causing concern among White House officials who worry about the Republican Party's chances in the upcoming midterm elections. Republican lawmakers and senior White House staff have been urging Trump for months to focus on the economy. This is the number one concern of voters. Trump, on the other hand, has been unable to demonstrate that he understands Americans' concerns and has declared victory against inflation despite data that shows otherwise. The Labor Department released data on Friday showing that inflation rose in March, the first month of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran which began on February 28. This resulted in Tehran blocking a fifth of world oil supplies from flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the resulting spike in crude oil costs drove an unprecedented increase in gasoline prices across the U.S. This 'pushed headline inflation to its highest level since June 2022, when the post COVID pandemic surge in price that devastated former President Joe Biden’s political prospects reached its peak. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which is a benchmark for the state of the economy, fell to a new record low in early April. In a press release, survey director Joanne Hsu stated that "demographic groups of all ages, income levels, and political parties have experienced a decline in their sentiment. This reflects the widespread nature of the fall this month." Not only Trump's Democrats critics, but also other Democrats gave low grades to the current state of the economy and its future prospects. Self-identified Republicans showed the biggest drop in sentiment scores, with their score nearing its lowest level since Trump's return to office after regaining the White House in January 2025. Trump had won back the White House by promising to lower high prices that plagued Biden for most of his tenure. Some top Trump officials, such as White House Chief Staff Susie Wiles have grown increasingly concerned that not enough effort is being made to bring down high prices. Wiles privately asked advisers to be more explicit about the economic and political downsides the war. A White House official said this week, under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive discussions. Public opinion polling, beyond the University of Michigan survey, shows Americans losing faith in Trump's economic management. This, according to political analysts, could harm?his Republican Party, as it fights to maintain a slim majority in Congress during the November midterm elections. The White House tried to divert attention from the high price of gasoline by releasing a statement on Friday. The price of dairy, eggs, beef, prescription drugs and other essentials is falling or staying the same thanks to President Trump’s policies. Trump often cites the fact that food prices have remained unchanged in the past month, and that egg prices are down 45% over the last 12 months, the biggest drop ever. The economists are concerned that if energy costs remain high for a long time, they could feed into an inflationary breakout. Diesel fuel prices that are now within 20 cents of their previous record high could be passed on to consumers as higher food prices.
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Analysts say that the shock of the Iran war will cause the market to go into deficit by 2026.
Analysts predict that the sharp drop in?global production due to the Iran War will cause the oil market to experience a deficit this year. This is a dramatic change from previous forecasts, which predicted a comfortable supply. The conflict that began on February 28th with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran has effectively stopped oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This passageway accounts for about one fifth of global consumption. Attacks on energy infrastructure and production shutdowns have also severely reduced output. Eight analysts polled predict that oil demand will exceed supply by an average of 750,000 barrels a day this year. In a similar poll conducted in September, a 1,63 million bpd excess was predicted for 2026. This was primarily due to OPEC+'s decision to unwind some of their output cuts and the strong production of other producers such as the U.S. Brazil and Guyana. According to the International Energy Agency, the war has reduced?oil supplies by approximately 11 million bpd at the end of march. In a note dated April 9, ANZ Bank estimated that around 9 million bpd crude?supply was effectively eliminated. According to the IEA, global oil supply in January was 106.6 million bpd. Analysts in the survey said that these immediate shocks will translate into an annual average loss of production of 2,13 million?bpd. Analysts expect the market's steepest deficit to occur in the second quarter, averaging 3 million bpd. Then the fourth quarter will see a return to a surplus of around 1.4 million. Analysts warn that the projected deficits may increase depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The flow of goods through the Strait remains constrained. Traders have reported no signs that shipments will resume in full force since Tuesday's ceasefire announcement. Vikas Dwivedi is a global energy strategist for Macquarie Group. He estimates that 136 million barrels (of crude oil and other products) are still stuck in the Gulf as a result of the conflict. It will take some time to clear up the backlog. Even though the ceasefire has been declared, many?shippers are still facing challenges. There have been reports that Iran plans to charge fees for ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Dwivedi stated that "issues include insurance, and the risk (of) violating sanctions by transacting with Iran when tolls are being paid." Expect bumpy ride when restoring production Last month, analysts raised their Brent price forecasts for '2026 by about 30% to $82.85 per barrel. Oil prices have risen by around 50% due to the war. It will take several months to restore oil production levels prior to the conflict, depending on damage sustained by oilfields in attacks and shutdowns and how easily shipping can flow through Hormuz. Analysts at ANZ say that even under a 'constructive security scenario,' output will only partially recover in the short term. Around 2 to 3 million bpd could return in the first quarter as export flows resume, and 2 to 3.5 millions bpd - or more - may come back in the second quarter. They said that despite the fact that recovery will not be easy, it is likely to be hampered by operational friction, damaged infrastructure, and export bottlenecks. ANZ also said that there is a possibility of around 1 to 2 million bpd capacity being permanently lost or restricted even after the war. This would lead to a tighter and more volatile market. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Anjana Anil and Kavya Balaraman)
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Vale, a Brazilian company, will build a processing plant for iron ore that will focus on tailings
Vale, a Brazilian mining company, announced on Friday that it will start building a processing plant for waste rock and tailings in the southeastern state of 'Minas Gerais this year. The plant will be able to produce 2 million metric?tons per year and is expected to start operations in the next year. It is part of?Vale’s goal to reuse previously discarded materials. First reported the plan. Vale is able to extract iron ore commercially from waste rock and tailings due to the technological advancements that have transformed a previously uneconomical process. The plant is part a project that aims to demolish a tailings?dam?in Minas Gerais. Vale, the largest iron ore producer in the world, has more than doubled last year's production of iron ore that is derived from waste rock and tailings. Around 80% of this?volume was produced in Minas Gerais. By 2030, the company anticipates that?10% of its annual?iron ore production will be derived from reclaimed materials.
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Weekly gain on gold heads, US-Iran truce at the forefront
The gold price held steady but was headed 'for a gain for the week as the U.S. Dollar weakened after 'the iran truce. Market participants continue to assess whether it will last and what its implications are for interest rates. By 1:40 pm, spot gold was steady at $4.761.79 an ounce. ET (1740 GMT). This week, it has gained almost 2%. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.6% lower, at $4,787.40. Gold buyers are carefully reclaiming narrative this week, with higher lows each day. The tentative ceasefire is helping. "There will be a major battle ahead of $5,000. A break above that level could reignite the bull market," independent metals traders Tai Wong stated. The 'ceasefire', which has been in place for two days, has stopped a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. However it has not eased the 'blockade of Strait of Hormuz nor quellen a parallel conflict that has broken out between Israel and Hezbollah-allies of Iran located in Lebanon. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. Gold priced in greenbacks was cheaper for those who hold other currencies. The data showed that U.S. consumers prices rose the most since?nearly 4 years in March, as oil prices rose and tariffs continued to be passed through. A persistently high level of inflation restricts central banks' ability cut interest rates. Although bullion can be used as a hedge to protect against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, its appeal diminishes when rates are high due to the lack of yield. Gold demand has also increased in India this week, ahead of an important?festival. However, high prices have dampened the mood, while premiums in China have narrowed. Silver spot rose by 1.6% per ounce to $76.26, platinum dropped 2.3% to 2,053.81, while palladium also fell 1.9% to $1,527.44. All three metals are expected to post gains this week. Ashitha Shivprasad, reporting from Bengaluru. Niall Williams and Alan Barona edited the article.
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If the Iran war continues, Brazilian pulp giant Suzano expects prices to rise for toilet paper and tissues worldwide
Brazilian pulp giant Suzano announced on Friday that toilet paper, tissue and diaper prices will increase globally as companies try to cover higher transportation and 'chemical' costs if the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran continues. Suzano is the largest producer of pulp in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $60 billion. This pulp is used to manufacture Kimberly-Clark Cottonelle toilet papers, Kleenex tissues and sanitary products, as well as diapers, cardboard packaging, and other everyday items. The Iran War has caused a spike in oil prices, which have increased Suzano’s costs for shipping, trucking and rail. Paulo Leime is the managing director of Suzano for Europe, Middle East and Africa. Leime stated that "it will put pressure on the paper prices." "If this crisis continues...inflation should be back across ?multiple products, not only paper and tissue." He did not provide any details on when prices could start to increase. His comments reflect widespread concerns that rising prices for food, petrol, and other basic goods could increase inflation, putting pressure on households. Suzano, he said, has hedged against rising prices for certain raw materials including oil. However, indirect costs for chemicals that are key to pulp production such as caustic soda, sulphuric acids, and other chemicals, have also risen. He warned that the "significant impact" had been felt on the business in the Middle East, where it holds a significant share of the market in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Qatar. The pulp industry, which is the fourth most energy-intensive sector in the economy, is particularly affected by the rising energy prices. Since the beginning of the war, the company's share price has fallen by?more than 15 percent. Leime said that Suzano’s production will not be affected by rising energy prices, as its industrial sites are energy-independent. Leime stated that the major?impacts will be on fuel prices. Leime stated that Suzano now ships pulp to the Middle East via the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal, paying for "expensive trucking" through Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Richa Naidu is the reporter. (Editing by Josephine Mason, David Gregorio and David Gregorio.)
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Bondholders of Ukraine's Naftogaz hire lawyers to prepare for a restructuring
Holders of bonds issued by Ukraine's Naftogaz, the state energy giant, have hired lawyers to prepare for what appears to be a second debt restructuring since Russia's invasion in 2022. Source familiar with the matter confirmed that the funds hired Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton - the same firm which represented VR Capital and bondholders when Naftogaz wrote off its debt in?2023. In the face of ongoing Russian attacks, the Ukrainian state energy company, which has recently hired Rothschild to be its debt advisor, is struggling with how to pay a repayment of nearly 700 million euros ($821million) due in July. IFR reports that the company's chief executive Sergii Koretskyi, and Taras Pasazhko, acting chief financial officer, held a conference call with investors to discuss the impending payment crunch. Naftogaz, the largest state-owned enterprise in Ukraine is not eligible for a formal guarantee from the state. Since the start of the war, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have provided financing to the firm of over $2 billion. Credit rating firm Fitch warned in December that Naftogaz might be headed for a restructuring because of the 'increased costs of buying natural gas? and after Russia responded to Ukraine refusing to renew its transit agreement with Gazprom, by bombing their infrastructure.
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Peru cancels approval of Southern Copper's Tia Maria project
The mining ministry announced on Friday that the Peruvian 'government' has withdrawn an important authorization for Southern Copper's Tia Maria Copper Project and sent it back to authorities for review. This is a new obstacle for this long-stalled project. Tia Maria is one of the largest mines in Peru and the third largest copper producer in the world. Its target start date is late 2027, after more than a decade of local opposition by farmers and residents. The ministry of mining did not explain why it had revoked the permission to "start exploitation activities" issued in October. However, they said that a new evaluation was being conducted for transparency and legal clarity. In a press release, it stated that "the file will be sent?to General Directorate of Mining which will issue?a new announcement in strict compliance with guidelines established by Mining Council and current regulation." Southern Copper, owned by Grupo México and the top copper producer in Peru last year, has declined to comment. The $1.8 billion Tia Maria Project is about a quarter completed and will produce 120,000 tons of copper per year. Residents and farmers in the area have been 'afraid' of the mine for a long time. They fear that it will pollute and endanger water supplies. Six people were killed and dozens of others injured in violent?protests held against the project between 2011 and 2015. Southern Copper also develops several other projects in Peru including Los Chancas, Michiquillay and others as part of an investment plan for $10.3 billion over the next decade. The company already operates the Toquepala and Cuajone mines, as well as the Ilo refining plant in southern Peru. (Reporting and Writing by Marco Aquino; Editing by Daina-Beth Solomon, Christina Fincher, and Natalia Siniawski)
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US Trade Court weighs the legality of Trump’s 10% global tariff
A U.S. Trade?court considered Friday the legality of President Donald Trump's 10% global import -tax, which many states and small business claim circumvents a U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating most of his previous tariffs. Two small businesses and a group of 24 mostly Democratic-led states sued the Trump Administration to stop the new tariffs that went into effect February 24, 2019. The hearing will be conducted by a panel of three judges of the U.S. Court of International Trade. Oregon's attorney Brian Marshall said that the judges should block the tariffs of 10% rather than allow them to expire according to the usual 150-day time frame, in order to prevent?Trump invoking various laws to keep the tariffs indefinitely. Marshall stated that "we have a series of tariffs which are always in place, this is a problem." Marshall said that the tariffs are based on an archaic law meant to protect?U.S. Dollar from sudden depreciation during the 1970s when dollars were exchangeable for gold held at Fort Knox. He claimed that the authority was intended to "resolve" significant "balance of payments deficits," but Trump could not repurpose it in order to address routine trade imbalances. In his second term Trump made tariffs "a central pillar" of his foreign policies, and claimed sweeping authority to impose tariffs without the input of Congress. The administration said that global tariffs were a legal and proper response to the persistent trade deficit that is caused by the U.S. importing more goods than they export. White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated that "President Trump uses the executive powers given to him by Congress in a lawful manner to address our nation's balance-of-payments crisis." Trump imposed new tariffs in accordance with Section 122 of Trade Act of 1974. This section authorizes import duties of up 15% for a maximum of 150 days during "large and severe United States balance of payments deficits" or prevent an imminent depreciation of dollars. Small businesses and the states argue that the Trade Act's authority to impose tariffs is only meant to deal with short-term monetary crises, while routine trade deficits don't match the economic definition for "balance of payments deficits." Trump?announced new tariffs on the 20th of February, the same day that the Supreme Court delivered a stinging blow to him when it struck down a large swath tariffs he imposed under International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court ruled that the IEEPA did not grant him the 'power he claimed. Before Trump, no U.S. President had?used Section 122 or the IEEPA to impose tariffs. These two lawsuits are not challenging other Trump tariffs imposed under traditional legal authority such as the recent tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, and copper. Dietrich Knauth is the reporter; Noeleen Walder and Lisa Shumaker are the editors. Franklin Paul, David Gregorio, and Noeleen Walder are responsible for editing.
USA Rare Earth CEO defends Trump Administration investment amid congressional questions
CEO Barbara Humpton said that shareholders of 'USA Rare Earth' should not worry about the terms of a pending investment by the U.S. Department of Commerce in the company. The deal gives Washington equity even if the funding falls through, she added. The $1.58-billion debt-and equity funding package announced in January is the latest in the Trump administration's?string? of critical-minerals investment. It was part of an effort to boost U.S. production for the building blocks of electronics, weapons, and other products.
Some lawmakers are concerned about the terms of the USA Rare Earth agreement and how it was negotiated. The close relationship between Cantor Fitzgerald and the former Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, now headed by his sons, is one issue. In a letter sent to Lutnick, a top House Democrat called this deal "highly disturbing" and said that it was "deeply odd" that the government retains its equity stake if the deal is not funded or if funding is reclaimed.
Humpton responded "Not at any time" when asked by an interviewer if the structure of the deal should worry shareholders.
Humpton, who was speaking for the first time publicly about Democrats' concerns over the deal that is scheduled to close by the end the month, said: "With all the work we have done to show our shareholders their future path and value creation, we will be delighted to have had this engagement."
Humpton forwarded any questions about the congressional letter Lutnick received to the Commerce Department. The department did not respond to requests for comments. The letter is viewed as a preview for the type of investigations Democrats will pursue after they win power in Washington following the midterm elections. They are looking at the use of federal funding and equity stakes as a way to reshape mineral supply chains. The funds will be used to develop a mine at Sierra Blanca in Texas that is expected to open in 2028 and a magnet plant in Stillwater in Oklahoma.
CEO DISMISSES MINING ECONOMICS CRITICS
Humpton, a former executive at Siemens, defended USA Rare?Earth’s work with Cantor during the Commerce Department negotiations, and noted that the financial firm assisted the company in going public in March 2025.
Humpton said, "Our best decision was to choose a team that knew us."
The company acknowledged that while the Texas mine was central to its magnet plans, it had a low grade of rare Earths in comparison with other peers. This is a geological factor that has been described by some as an economic risk. However, the mix of rare Earths in the deposit tends to be heavy rare earths which are used in applications with extremely high heat and are therefore more attractive?to certain customers.
The mine's preliminary feasibility study, which is usually required by investors, will not be completed until the end of the year. This raises more questions about the mine's economics.
Humpton cited pop singer Taylor Swift in response to a question about the negative reactions of some people towards its Texas plans. "Haters will hate."
Humpton stated that "simple grade" is not the determining factor. The true factor is the recoverable heavy rare-earth component. The mine will produce yttrium which is used to make special alloys. It's also one of the rare earths that China has restricted exports.
Humpton stated, "We didn't realize the importance of yttrium before we worked with the Department of Commerce." Commerce made it clear this was the top demand in the semiconductor industry. Reporting by Ernest Scheyder, Houston; Editing and Veronica Brown by Matthew Lewis
(source: Reuters)