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Vale Indonesia claims that the 2026 mining quota will not be enough to meet the demand of new smelters
The nickel miner PT Vale Indonesia has announced that the quota for mining production approved this year is likely to be 'insufficient' to meet the demand of the smelters 'that are expected to 'come on line later this year', according the chief executive. Vale announced on Thursday that it had received approval for its annual production quota (known locally as RKAB) and had resumed mining activities following a stoppage caused by delays in approval. Bernardus Irmanto, the chief executive of the company, asked for help on Monday in a meeting with members of parliament. He said that the quota for PT Vale was around 30% of the amount we requested. This will likely not allow us to'meet the commitments made for the?plants," he added, without disclosing an exact number. He expressed his hope that the company will be given an additional ore production quote. Vale and its partners are building three high-pressure leaching plants (HPAL) to extract nickel material used in?electrical vehicle batteries. Bernardus stated that the $4.5 billion HPAL facility in Pomalaa, Southeast Sulawesi, is expected to begin operations?in August. Meanwhile, the Bahadopi Plant in Central Sulawesi, which will be developed in the fourth quarter of this year, should also start operating. Next year, another plant in Sorowako (Southeast Sulawesi) is expected to begin operations. The?chief executive stated that Vale's nickel-matte production in 2025 was higher than expected. Company data revealed that the company had set a target of producing 71,234 tons of nickel matt by 2025. However, it has only produced 66 848 tons up until November. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Fransiska Nanangoy)
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India's MRPL scouts out Venezuelan oil while it halts Russian exports
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd in India is looking at purchasing Venezuelan oil, as it halts its imports of Russian?oil to comply with Western sanctions. Its head of finance Devendra Kumar said on Monday. The state-run refiner, which operates a 500,000-barrel-per-day refinery in the southern state of Karnataka, exports about 40% of its refined fuel output. Kumar, speaking on an analyst's call, said: "We are strictly complying with all sanctions that exist and there is currently no Russian crude imported." The U.S. sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies – Rosneft, and Lukoil in October. Companies had until November 21,?to end their dealings with these oil giants. Meanwhile, the EU announced that from January 21, it would not accept fuel from refineries which received or processed Russian oil 60 days before the bill of loading date. We do not anticipate any disruptions to our exports of finished goods in the near future. Kumar says that the higher margins of refined fuel exports offsets the loss in Russian oil. A refiner sources about 40% of its crude oil needs from the Middle East. It also processes domestic?oil and purchases it on spot markets. He said MRPL actively considers purchasing Venezuelan oil if the commercial terms are favorable, including freight rates. Reliance Industries Ltd., Indian Oil Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.?also consider buying Venezuelan oil. To increase its profits, MRPL is now focusing on direct retail sales rather than selling refined fuels to other refiners. He added that the company will expand its retail fuel network from 200 to 500 outlets in three years and aim to operate 1,000 stations within five.
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As Iran unrest eases, geopolitical risks are reduced.
The oil prices fell on Monday, after increasing during the previous session. Civil unrest in Iran has subsided and the likelihood of an attack by the United States to disrupt the Middle Eastern major's supply has decreased. Brent crude traded at $63.85 per barrel at 0734 GMT. This is a?28-cents-or-0.44% decrease. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 36 cents or 0.61% to $59.08 per barrel. The contract expires Tuesday, and the March contract, which is more active, was $59.10 down 24 cents or 0.40%. The unrest was quelled by the violent crackdown in Iran on protests sparked by economic hardship. Officials claim that 5,000 people were killed. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, appeared to?step back from his earlier threat of intervention by saying on social media that Iran had cancelled mass hangings for?protesters. However, the country had announced no such plans. This appeared to reduce the chances of an American intervention?that could disrupt oil flows from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' fourth-largest producers. Although prices settled higher on the Friday, this downturn was a sign of a new retreat from last week's multi-month highs. However, the U.S. move in the Gulf highlights continued concerns. The IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a report that the?pullback' was a result of a rapid unwinding of the 'Iran Premium', which had pushed prices to 12-week-highs. This was triggered by signs that Iran would be easing its crackdown on protesters. He added that the U.S. data on crude inventories showed a significant build, which reinforced supply pressures. Martin Luther King Jr. Day is observed on Monday, January 15th. The EIA reported last week that crude stocks were up 3.4 million barrels for the week ending January 9. This was in contrast to analysts' expectations, which in a survey predicted a 1.7-million-barrel draw. After Trump's statement that the United States will run Venezuela's?oil industries after the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the markets are watching closely the plans for Venezuelan oil fields. Energy Secretary of the United States, said on Friday that Chevron is being granted an expanded production license in?the country as soon as possible. The markets are less confident about the prospect of increased Venezuelan production. Vandana Hari is the founder of Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analyses. The U.S. market is closed, so expect rangebound trading for the remainder of the day. China's crude oil production in 2025 will grow 1.5% compared to 2024. Both are at all-time highs according to government data released on Monday. Reporting by Mohi N. Narayan, New Delhi; editing by Christian Schmollinger & Clarence Fernandez.
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Shanghai copper prices slip on profit-taking and weak China demand
Shanghai copper lost for a third session in a row on Monday as profit-taking and signs of?subdued Chinese demand weighed on market. The'most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended?daytime trading down 0.68% to 101,180 Yuan ($14.531.51) per metric ton. After two consecutive sessions of declines, the benchmark 3-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.90% at $7,018 per ton, as of 0700 GMT. The?Shanghai copper market continued to be a profit-making opportunity for investors, while weak demand also brought down the price of copper. The Yangshan Copper Premium The?measure of Chinese demand for imported material?, which was more than $50 per ton in late December, fell to just $32 on Friday, showing a weakening demand despite a record rally in red metal. Copper inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE have continued to increase for a sixth week running, indicating a softer buying interest amid high prices. Deliverable copper inventories According to SHFE’s weekly stock report, the amount of copper in these warehouses increased by 18.3% on Friday to 213,515 tonnes, which was a nine-month record. They were also up 138.86% from December 8. Copper prices were still supported by mine interruptions and fears that regional market dislocations in other countries due to tariffs would?tighten refined copper supply. Stock levels at U.S. Comex Warehouses On Friday, the number of short?tons (49223.3 metric tonnes) reached 542,914. Data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew at a 4.5% rate in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, a three-year low. For 2025, however, the economy expanded by 5.0% and reached Beijing's 5% target despite trade tensions and weak domestic demand. Lead fell?2.33%. Nickel dropped 1.42%. Tin tumbled 5.98%. Aluminium, zinc, lead, and nickel all saw gains. Tin was also up 1.41%.
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China's aluminium production in 2025 will surpass 45 million tonnes
Data released by the government on Monday showed that China's aluminum production grew to 45 million metric tonnes in 2025. This is largely in line with a national output cap mandated by the government and represents a slower growth rate than in 2024. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the full-year production in the world's biggest consumer and producer of light metals rose by 2.4%, to 45.02 millions tons. This is a slower growth rate than the 4.6% in 2024. The December production rose 3.0% year-on-year, to 3.87 millions tons. The output was near the long-standing ceiling of 45 million tons per annum mandated by government in a broad effort to reduce oversupply. Analysts at Citi stated in December that a strong growth in the?aluminium production in China is unlikely. Citing not only the 45-million-ton cap, but also tighter energy, environmental and carbon policies which have made aluminium melting in China "a poor investment". In 2025, aluminium was the most expensive base metal. The benchmark three-month contract for aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose by more than 17%, while Shanghai aluminium increased by more than 14%. This was due to supply concerns after China reached its production capacity limit. China's nonferrous metal production, which includes copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel, rose by 4.9 percent to?7.21 millions metric tons in the month of December. The output for 2025 increased by 3.9 percent to 81.75 millions metric tons. Other non-ferrous materials include tin and antimony. Mercury, magnesium, titanium, and mercury are also available. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan, and Neil Fullick).
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Andy Home: Tin price bubble is a source of trouble and toil for the global industry
London and Shanghai markets have seen a surge in tin prices, which are now at all-time highs. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the rally is "unreasonable". Last month, it warned all parties to "avoid following trends blindly". Beijing's warning has not deterred Chinese traders from chasing prices higher and higher. On Thursday, the volume of trading in the?tin contracts on Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) exceeded one million metric tonnes. This is more than double the annual global physical consumption. Tin is in a clear speculative boom, which will burst as soon as trends change. The mismatch between physical market size and interest in investing foreshadows future volatility. Not just for tin. The current tidal waves of investor purchases washing through the industrial-metals sector may be a sign for other metal supply chain. EXUBERANCE IRRATIONALE Since several months, the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin contract has been on the rise. However, this week it exploded as Chinese investors brought with them their financial power to the rally. On Tuesday, LME's three-month metal surpassed the previous price peak of March 2022 at $51,000 a metric ton and soared to $54,760 per metric ton by Wednesday. The main narrative is a?shortfall in supply. Tin's structural issues with supply are well-known. Global mine production is concentrated in too few nations and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo or the semi-autonomous Wa State of Myanmar. This rally is not a good time. In recent months, the supply of tin has improved. Since the M23 insurgency was in danger of overrunning the Bisie mine in Congo a year earlier, the threat has diminished. After a successful third quarter, Alphamin Resources raised its production forecast for the year. After a long absence, the giant Man Maw Mine in Myanmar has also begun to show signs of renewed productivity. China imported 7,190 tonnes of tin-based raw materials from Myanmar in November. This was the highest monthly total since August 2024. According to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association, Indonesia will continue to crack down on illegal mining, but the upside is that official sector production quotas are expected to increase from 53,000 ton in 2025 to 60 000 ton in 2026. There is no shortage of refined tin right now. Metal producers and traders have contributed significant amounts to the recent price rise. The combined stocks of the LME and ShFE rose from 11,000 tones at the end October to more than 19,000 tons. Inventory was less than 5,000 tons at the previous peak of 2022. When China's metals regulator describes the tin price's extreme rise as "unreasonable", they may be right. LIQUIDITY MISMATCH Paraphrasing economist John Maynard Keynes: a market may remain "unreasonable", longer than you are able to remain solvent. Investors can have a large impact on the price, especially if there is a small market like tin. Shanghai is a clear example of this. China's commodities markets have been characterized by such speculative booms for a long time. It was alumina last year. Chinese authorities are in a well-oiled firefighting mode. They have raised?trading rates, especially the cost of intraday trading, and limited position sizes for nonmembers. Tin's story of limited supply and increasing use as a semiconductor-solder has not only attracted the Chinese. Over the past few years, the number of funds participating in the London Tin Market has steadily increased. The investment fund's long position reached a record high of 2,887 contracts in 2021 or early 2022 when tin prices were at their highest. This is equivalent to 14,435 tonnes. The investment fund long position reached a record of 5,753 contracts or 28,765 tons at one point last month. The liquidity rush has increased volatility in a market that is known for its wild price swings. Futures frenzy is causing real problems in the supply chain, as consumers and producers struggle to cover their margins. When does price risk take precedence over liquidity risk? How long can you remain solvent? FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS Tin was not a popular metal a few years back. Most fund managers did not invest in tin because the market was too small both for physical volume and futures activity. This is changing, as the world begins to realize the centrality of tin in the Internet of Things. No circuit boards, no internet. In our hyper-connected, connected world, there is very little more. The result is that too much money floods into a market unprepared to handle it. CNMIA is the voice of the world's biggest refined tin producers and users. It is very clear on the dangers posed to the present exuberance. The rapid price rise driven by funds has diverged from industry fundamentals and magnified market risks, harming the global chain of industry. Tin's dramatic story may be a timely reminder for other metals in demand, such as copper, as fund money floods the industrial metals sector in search of other hard assets than gold and silver. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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Morning Bid Europe-US takes on its largest creditor
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what's ahead for the European and Global markets. This is so unbelievable. The U.S. President threatens to impose an additional tax on American consumers to force Europe to sell him territory it can't legally offer. The tariffs could be illegal if the Supreme Court decides to rule on the matter. The fact that the tariffs are directly linked to sovereignty and the implications for the nation states makes it difficult for either party to TACO and puts all trade agreements already in place into question. The EU has already paused ratification for the U.S. EU agreement and the U.S. UK deal must be in question. Trump uses tariffs instead of a military invasion to attack a NATO member. This could lead to the end of the alliance and the loss of U.S. air bases in Europe, intelligence-sharing, billions of dollars in defence sales, etc. Market reaction was moderately risk-off. S&P futures were down nearly 1%, and EU stock futures by 1.1%. Gold and silver reached new peaks while the dollar lost ground against the Swiss franc, yen and other safe haven currencies. Analysts note that European investors have $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks. Cotton, it's a brave move to start a trade conflict with your largest creditor. There will also be a few tense days in Davos, as world leaders gather for the World Economic Forum. This includes a large U.S. delegation led by Trump. All the tensions are a boon to China which has just signed a new trade agreement with Canada. Exports helped China's Q4 GDP to slightly exceed forecasts, at 4.5% for the year. However, disappointing retail sales in December highlighted the weakness of the domestic demand. If?demography determines destiny, then the latest population figures should alarm Beijing. China will have 3.4 million less people in 2025, or roughly the population of Uruguay. In Japan, at 9am GMT, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held a press conference to announce a likely snap election for February. She did this to capitalize on her high approval ratings, though the voters seemed to prefer her to the 'LDP. It has led to talk about reducing the consumption tax, at least on food. This would be bad for the budget. It is important to note that the budget has improved in recent years, with a nominal GDP increase of 4%. This fiscal year, it may even be in surplus. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - Eurozone CPI for December. Canadian CPI Dec ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in Eurogroup Meeting
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Coal India's Bharat Coking Coal unit nearly doubles its IPO price after a strong demand
Bharat coal, India's top coking coal company, saw its shares nearly double in their debut on the market Monday, as a result of the strong interest generated by the IPO. The shares were listed at a price of 45 rupees (95.7% higher than the original issue price of 23?rupees) on the National Stock Market of?India. Meanwhile, the benchmark Nifty50 was down by 0.5% for the day. Last week, the $118.7 million IPO attracted bids totaling $13?billion, making it one of most popular IPOs. Subscribe to the heavyweights In recent years, state-run services have been offered. The issue was priced fairly, especially as a low-ticket IPO. It offered an attractive risk/reward profile, said?Prashanth Tase, senior Vice President (Research) at Mehta Equities. This company was India's first major board listing since?2026. It is a subsidiary of government-owned Coal India, one of?the world's largest coal producers. According to LSEG, India will be the world's second largest primary market after the United States in 2025, with 367 IPOs that raised $21.8 billion.
China's property woes lead to a two-week low in iron ore
Iron ore futures hit a two-week low on Monday as a number of data points from China, the world's largest consumer, highlighted the?persistent weakness? in the real estate market. This raised?concerns? about the?demand? for the steelmaking ingredient.
The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 2.58% lower, at 794 Yuan ($114.03) per metric ton. This was its lowest level since January 6.
As of 0710 GMT the benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 1.54% to $104.7 per ton. This was its lowest level since January 2.
Official data shows that China's home prices continued to decline in December. This highlights the persistent pressures on the property market despite government promises to stabilize it.
Investors also saw a decline in property investment and sales by floor area, which they closely monitor for future steel and ore demand.
China's lower crude-steel output and signs of increasing supply also weighed on the market.
The crude steel production in 2025 will fall below 1 billion tonnes and reach a seven-year low, as a prolonged property market slump hurts demand. However, steel exports will rise to record highs.
The 'world's biggest iron ore consumer received his first shipment of iron from the Simandou Mine in Guinea.
Beijing has heavily invested in the mine, to reduce its dependence on Brazilian and Australian shipments that make up 80% of its foreign supply.
Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also dropped in price, by 0.8% and 1.04 percent respectively.
The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 1.04%, wire rod dropped 0.6%, and hot-rolled coil was down 0.75%. Stainless steel softened by 0.21%. ($1 = 6.9628 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
(source: Reuters)