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Europe has ceased to rely on American science
Interviews indicate that European governments are taking measures to reduce their dependence on the scientific data that the United States has historically provided to the world. They are also stepping up their data collection systems in order to monitor weather extremes and climate change. This effort, which was not previously reported, is the most concrete response to date from the European Union and European governments in response to President Donald Trump’s administration’s retreat from scientific researchers. Trump, since his return to the White House in 2017, has implemented sweeping cuts to agencies such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Centers for Disease Control, and others. He has also dismantled programs that conduct climate, weather and geospatial research, and taken some public databases off-line. According to interviews, as these cuts are implemented, European officials are becoming increasingly concerned that governments and businesses may have difficulty planning for extreme weather and long-term investment in infrastructure if they do not continue to access U.S. supported weather and climate data. In March, over a dozen European nations urged the EU Commission in order to quickly recruit American scientists whose jobs were lost due to these cuts. When asked for comment about NOAA cuts and EU moves to expand their own collection of scientific information, the White House Office of Management and Budget stated that Trump's proposed budget cuts for the agency in 2026 were targeted at programs which spread "fake Green New Scam ‘science'," a reference to policy and research on climate change. Rachel Cauley, a spokesperson for OMB, stated via email that "Under the leadership of President Trump, the U.S. funds real science again." European officials expressed concern about the U.S.'s general pullback in research, despite the fact that they are concerned that the data is vital to understanding climate change and marine systems. Maria Nilsson is the Swedish State secretary for Education and Research. She said: "The current situation has been much worse than expected." "My reaction is, quite frankly, shock." The Danish Meteorological Institute called the U.S. Government data "absolutely crucial" and stated that it relied upon several data sets for measuring sea ice and surface temperatures in the Arctic. The DMI's National Center for Climate Research director Adrian Lema said that reliable data is essential for extreme weather forecasts, climate projections and protecting communities. Officials from eight European nations said that their governments are reviewing their reliance on U.S. climate, marine and weather data. Seven countries, including Denmark, Finland Germany, Netherlands Norway Spain and Sweden, described their joint efforts to protect key climate and health data. LEANING ON THE U.S. A senior European Commission official said that the EU was expanding access to ocean observations data as a matter of priority. These data sets are vital to the shipping, energy and early storm warning industries. The EU is planning to expand the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODN) in the next two-years. This network collects and hosts data about shipping routes, seabed environments, marine litter and more. Senior European Commission officials said that the initiative aimed to "mirror and possibly replace US-based services". Europe is concerned that the U.S. will cut funding to NOAA, which would have a negative impact on Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), a network of ocean-observation programs that support navigation services, shipping routes, and storm forecasting. A second EU official confirmed this. Insurance companies rely on disaster records from the Global Ocean Observing System to model risk. Coastal planners use data on shoreline, sea level, and hazards to guide investments in infrastructure. Oceanic and seismic data are used by the energy industry to determine offshore drilling or wind farm feasibility. The senior EU Commission official also said that the EU was considering increasing funding for the Argo Program, a component of the Global Ocean Observing System, which uses a global network of floats in order to monitor oceans around the world and track global climate change, extreme weather and sea level rise. NOAA described the program that has been in operation for more than 25 years as the "crown gem" of ocean sciences. Its data is freely accessible to the oil and gasoline industry, marine tourism, and other industries. Argo's annual operating costs of $40 million are funded by the EU, but 57% is covered by the United States. White House and NOAA didn't respond to any questions regarding future support of that program. Craig McLean who is retiring in 2022, after 40 years at the agency, believes that European efforts to set up independent data collection and take a larger role in Argo are a break from decades of U.S. ocean science leadership. He said the U.S. was the undisputed leader in weather, climate, and marine data collection, and through NOAA, the U.S. had paid for over half of all ocean measurements around the world. European scientists recognize the U.S. government's outsized role in global scientific data collection and research. They also acknowledge that European countries are overly dependent on this work. It's similar to defense, we also rely heavily on America in this area. Katrin Boehning Gaese is the scientific director at Germany's Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. "GUERRILLA ARCHIVISTS" A number of European countries are taking steps to reduce this dependence. Sigrun Aasland, Norwegian Minister for Research and Higher Education and Research, said that Nordic countries had met in the spring to coordinate their data storage efforts. In May, European science ministers met in Paris to discuss the U.S. budget cuts for science. Aasland stated that Norway would set aside $2 million for the backup and storage of U.S. Data to ensure stable access. In February, the Danish Meteorological Institute began downloading historical U.S. Climate Data in case they were deleted by the U.S. Christina Egelund said that the Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science is also planning to move away from American observations and to alternative ones. Lema, from the Institute, said that "the potentially critical issue" is when new observation data stops coming in. He said that while weather models would continue to work without U.S.-based data, the quality of those models would be affected. The German government, meanwhile, has asked scientific organizations including the Center to examine its dependence on U.S. database. Scientists and citizens around the world have downloaded U.S. databases that were slated to be decommissioned - calling this "guerrilla archive." We received emergency calls from our U.S. colleagues who told us, "We have a serious problem and will need to abandon certain datasets," said Frank Oliver Gloeckner. He is the head of PANGAEA's digital archive, operated by German public funded research institutions. As part of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency cutbacks, about 800 of NOAA's 12000-strong workforce were terminated or given financial incentives to leave. The White House budget plan for 2026 aims to shrink NOAA further. It proposes a $1.8 billion budget cut or 27%, as well as a staffing reduction of nearly 20%, bringing the NOAA workforce down to 10,000. The budget proposal eliminates the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA's principal research arm), which is responsible for ocean observatories including Argo, coastal observation networks, satellite sensors, and climate model laboratories. Also, it is reducing the number of data products. NOAA announced the decommissioning on its website of 20 datasets related to marine science and earthquakes between April and June. NOAA has not responded to any requests for comment. Gloeckner stated that there are no legal obstacles to storing data from the U.S. Government as the information is already public. Denice Ross is a senior fellow with the Federation of American Scientists. The group is a nonprofit science policy organization. She was the chief data officer for the U.S. Government during Joe Biden’s administration. Ross stated that databases need to be updated regularly, which is only possible with government funding and infrastructure. In the past few months, officials from the Federation and EU have had a series discussions with European researchers, U.S. charities, and groups that advocate for health and the environment to determine what data should be saved. She said that other nations, institutions, and philanthropies could fill in the gaps left by the U.S. quality if it starts to deteriorate.
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Andy Home: Copper market suffers for forgetting its TACO-hedging:
The copper market has the tariffs right, but the products are wrong. The copper market was surprised by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would "address the effects of imports of copper on America's security". Imports of semi-manufactured copper products, such as wires and tubes, will face a 50% tariff starting Friday. The tariff will not be applied to refined copper until at least January 2027. If warranted, a gradual increase in the rate may then take place. The tariff trade that has dominated the copper market in February has collapsed. CME's U.S. Contract plummeted more than 20% after the news. This wiped out the high premium that was previously over the London Metal Exchange price. The United States has a surplus of metal that it does not need, after traders shipped massive tonnages via the arbitrage gap. The copper market has forgotten Trump's tendency of backing down from his most extreme threats. To borrow a popular investor meme, it has been TACOed, which is short for Trump Always Chills Out. Targeted Products for Copper Tariffs on semifinished copper products are applied to between 400,000-500,000 metric tonnes of U.S. imports per year. The United States imports a lot more refined copper. Last year, imports were just under 900,000. Canada is by far the biggest copper supplier to the U.S. but there are many other suppliers. Copper tubes were imported from 32 countries last year. Tariffs will be applied to all copper-intensive products, including cables, connectors, and electrical components. This is likely to include more suppliers. The new tariff wall will be good for domestic processors - but only if their capacity is sufficient to cover what's currently imported. In the next few months, we will know how many exemptions specific to products have been granted. SCRAP WARS GET HOTTER Export restrictions will also be placed on concentrates mined in the United States and recyclable copper. A quarter of domestically-produced "copper input materials" will be required to be sold in the United States from 2027. This rate will increase to 30% in 2020, and then 40% in 2029. This may require more capacity than the three domestic smelters currently available, even if Grupo Mexico were to reactivate its idle Hayden facility in Arizona. To encourage domestic recycling, "high-quality copper scrap" must also meet a minimum requirement of 25%. The exact types of scrap that qualify for this measure are not known, nor is it clear how the measure will work in reality. However, the move represents an escalation of the simmering scrap battles. The European Union also considers export quotas for recyclable copper in order to stop "scrap leakage." China is the primary target, as it is the largest purchaser of secondary raw materials in the world. In 2024, the country imported 2,25 million tons copper scrap, the highest total ever since 2018, the first year that the authorities tightened the purity requirements on imported material. Imports are already slowing down this year due to a drop of 42% in shipments coming from the United States because of the high CME premium. The global scrap market is experiencing a growing resource nationalism, which will lead to structural changes in the recycling of materials. Can we have our COPPER back now? Not for refined copper as everyone expected. The United States has now ceased to need the copper that was shipped by large trade houses. It may have been a lucrative trade for the companies involved, but it is no longer necessary. CME warehouses now hold 232.195 tons of copper. This is the highest amount since 2004. Due to traders' last-minute rush to beat the August 1 deadline, metal is still arriving every day. Tariffs have a huge impact on the supply chain of other countries. China exported nearly 260,000 tons (or 78,800 tons) of refined copper from March to June. This is a significant increase over the previous four-month period. A portion of the copper was delivered to meet a shortfall on the London Market caused by the raid of LME stocks on brands that could be shipped to the United States. It was mostly non-Chinese steel that was shipped to the United States from warehouses bonded with non-Chinese metal. Shanghai Futures Exchange's stocks have plummeted to 73 423 tons, their lowest level since last December, due to China's booming exports. The physical supply chain may take longer to adjust than the futures trade. Analysts have already run the numbers to see if it makes sense to reverse the flow of copper back out of the United States. SAME TIME THE NEXT ANNUAL? What is the end of the copper tariff? Most likely not, as the reference explicitly mentions the option of a stepped tariff on imported refined copper starting at 15% in 2020 and increasing to 30% in 2030. The outcome will be determined by the report on the domestic market that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to release at the end of next June. It is also dependent on whether Trump decides to change his mind before then. Tariff Man is a great way to find out. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - "Tariffs, please use this version"
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The deadline for tariffs has passed and Donald Trump has imposed new levies on imports, including from countries that have not yet signed a trade agreement. Canada was set at 35%, India at 25%, Taiwan at 20%, and Thailand, 19%. Switzerland received a staggering 39%, one of the highest rates. This raises the question: What does Trump have against the Swiss people? You're not buying enough American watches or chocolate? After months of posturing and meetings, delays, and truces that prompted investors to wonder what was real and what was just a bluff, the big day finally arrived. There is much left to be done. Most levies, it could be argued, are lower than the ones that were threatened on April 2 which sent the markets into a tailspin. Plus, the major trade agreements with Japan and the European Union were reached and talks with China and Mexico continue. This is likely why the market's reaction has been so muted. Most Asian shares did fall, but not by much. South Korea, however, is the exception. Its shares fell over 3% due in part to the rollback of domestic tax cuts. Taiwan's President said that the 20% tax is only temporary, and it is expected to reduce further once a deal has been reached. Wall Street and European stocks did not seem too concerned by the tariff news. The EuroStoxx 50 futures fell by 0.3%. Nasdaq and S&P futures both fell by 0.2% due to Amazon's 6% drop after it failed to meet expectations. After the news on tariffs is out of the picture, the euro zone's flash CPI will be released later that day. Expectations are for a slight reduction in July to 1.9% from 2.0%, in annual terms. The markets have only priced half of a reduction from the European Central Bank for early next year. Then it will all be about the payrolls. This is crucial for hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. It's now priced at 40%, a far cry from 75% one month ago. Forecasts point to a rise of 110,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4,1% to 4,2%. If there are any positive surprises, they could reduce the likelihood of a change next month. This would give dollar bulls a reason to rally. The greenback has had its best week in three years - gaining 2.5% compared to its peers. This is a continuation of its recent upward trend from a low point three years ago. The Fed has remained hawkish and has not eased policy on the issue of tariffs. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was a little hotter over night, showing some impact from tariffs. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Eurozone flash CPI for the month of July ISM Manufacturing Survey: U.S. Payrolls for July Want to stay up-to-date with the latest tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
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Shell's Second Quarter Profit Tumbles by Almost a Third
Shell's second-quarter adjusted earnings, its definition of net profit, tumbled by almost a third on Thursday, dragged down by a drop in oil prices, but still easily beat analysts' forecasts.The oil major said it would maintain the pace of its share buyback programme at $3.5 billion over the next three months, the 15th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion.Shell has, meanwhile, achieved $3.9 billion in cost cuts compared with 2022, part of a cost-cutting programme aimed at saving between $5 billion and $7 billion by the end of 2028.It recorded cash flow from operations of $11.9 billion in the quarter, down from $13.5 billion a year ago.Together with $2.1 billion in dividends, that brings shareholder distributions to 46% of operating cashflow, within its 40% to 50% guided range.Shell's adjusted earnings reached $4.264 billion in the second quarter, smashing the $3.74 billion average in an analyst poll provided by the company but down 32% from a year ago.Global benchmark Brent crude prices LCOc1 averaged around $67 a barrel during the April-to-June quarter, compared with $75 a barrel in the first quarter and $85 a year earlier.Crude oil prices fell in the quarter as OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, began unwinding self-imposed production cuts aimed at supporting the market.Their most recent decision calls for an oil output increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August.Shell had guided in a trading update that it expected earnings to be hit by weaker trading in its integrated gas division and losses at its chemicals and products operations after an outage at its U.S. Monaca polymer plant.(Reuters - Reporting by Shadia NasrallaEditing by David Goodman and Joe Bavier)
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Nexans, Crowley Wind Services to Build Cable Lay Barge for US Ops
French subsea power cable maker and services provider Nexans has formed partnership with Crowley Wind Services to develop and operate a Jones Act compliant cable lay barge. The cable lay barge will be dedicated to supporting the installation of subsea transmission lines necessary for offshore wind energy, telecommunications and other major industrial applications.The 300-foot, U.S.-flagged vessel, built in Louisiana and tested in the U.S. Gulf to Nexans specifications, will be crewed by American mariners under Crowley’s operation.The vessel will play a critical role in laying and burying the subsea cables needed to deliver energy from offshore to the grid onshore. The barge is the first to have vertical injectors along with a dynamic positioning system and a multiple-anchors positioning system, which allow for accurate and efficient cable placement, even in challenging conditions. The barge boasts a 3,500-ton capacity carousel to lay and bury subsea cable using burial tools such as a vertical injector, a jet sled, or a jetting ROV, with the potential to be upgraded to 7,000 tons with two carousels for bundle cable lay and burial.The barge is positioned to support Equinor’s Empire Wind offshore wind farm for New York and can be configured to lay or repair cable for a multitude of other subsea applications."This barge will support our existing fleet of cable laying vessels, the Nexans CLV Aurora, Nexans C/S Skagerrak and Nexans CLV Electra, and we are pleased to be working with Crowley on developing the capability to lay nearshore subsea cable in the U.S.," said Pascal Radue, executive vice president of Nexans' PWR-Transmission Business Group, highlighting the significance of the partnership.“The cable lay barge will provide a productive supply chain solution for offshore energy, telecommunications and other sectors.“Coupled with our U.S. maritime fleet and mariners providing feedering services and other logistics and project management capabilities, we could not be better equipped to serve the needs of industries seeking subsea cable solutions,” added Graham Tyson, vice president of operations, Crowley Wind Services.The vessel will be operated by a crew of U.S. mariners, supporting maritime investment and employment goals.“AMO is proud to be the leading source for United States Coast Guard licensed officers in the wind farm space. Our long-lasting partnership with Crowley, and our new relationship with Nexans, will help to provide clean, affordable and sustainable energy to millions of Americans and will open the door to future offshore projects,” added Willie Barrere, American Maritime Officers National President.
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Gold losses on stronger dollar
Gold prices were flat on Friday but on course for a loss this week as the pressure of a stronger dollar overshadowed support from trade uncertainties caused by U.S. Tariffs. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold remained unchanged at $3,287.65 an ounce. Bullion has fallen 1.5% this week. U.S. Gold Futures declined by 0.3% to $3337.20. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the dollar index reaching its highest level since 29 May. "Gold has been trading in the $3,250-$3,450 range for the past two months and we expect it to move towards the lower end of this range, and possibly break it," said Marex Analyst Edward Meir. He added that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position was also driving the strength of the dollar, which weighed heavily on the bullion. On Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates at 4.25% to 4.50% and dampened expectations for a rate cut in September. Trump signed a executive order Thursday that imposed "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10 to 41% on imported goods from dozens countries and foreign locations. This was done ahead of the Friday deadline for a trade agreement. He raised duties on Canadian products to 35%, up from 25%, for all goods not covered by the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. But he gave Mexico 90 days to negotiate a wider deal. If trade tensions rise, prices could move up again if various countries are unable to renegotiate lower tariff rates. In June, the U.S. inflation rate increased as import tariffs began to increase the price of certain goods. The focus now shifts to U.S. employment data, due later today for more clues on the Federal Reserve's path of rate cuts. In a low interest rate environment, gold is an asset that does not yield any income. Spot silver dropped 0.6%, to $36.53 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.2%, to $1,291.55, and palladium remained at $1,191.95. All three metals are headed for losses this week. Reporting by Anmol Chaubey in Bengaluru and Brijesh Patel; editing by Harikrishnan Nair
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The weekly iron ore loss is a sign that China's stimulus has faded
The price of iron ore futures was little changed on the Friday, but they were headed for a loss for the week as the expectations for more stimulus by China, the top consumer, for its struggling property sector, faded. This dimmed demand prospects for this steelmaking ingredient. As of 1400 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged, trading at 784 Yuan per metric ton. This is down 2% for this week. As of 1300 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange rose 0.64% to reach $100.4 per ton. The price has fallen 2.8% this week. The much-anticipated China's Politburo July meeting, which sets the economic direction for the remainder of the year, failed to provide stimulus for the beleaguered property sector. This remains a drag on the consumption of industrial material such as steel. Analyst Zhuo Guqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the meeting set a positive tone in the current economic climate, reducing the urgency to implement more stimulus policies. China's purchasing manager's index (PMI), which fell to 49.3 at the end of July, a level not seen since April, missed a median poll forecast of 49.7 and was down from 49.7 at the end June. This reflects a weakening in demand both at home and abroad. Zhuo, of Jinrui Futures, said that falling demand is also weighing on the prices of key steelmaking ingredients. The average daily hot metal production fell by 0.6% compared to the previous week, reaching 2.41 million tonnes in the week ending July 31. This was the lowest level for three weeks. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 4.72% each and 0.18% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell by 0.68%. Hot-rolled coil, wire rod and hot-rolled sheet were unchanged. Stainless steel gained 0.43%. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Oil prices rise as tariff concerns and Russian supply threats compete for attention
The oil prices remained unchanged on Friday, after dropping more than 1% the previous session. Traders were digesting the impact of the new U.S. higher tariffs which may curb economic activity and reduce global fuel demand growth. Brent crude futures were up 4 cents or 0.06% to $71.74 per barrel at 1201 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose by 1 cent or 0.01% to $69.27. Brent prices will still rise by 4.9% this week, while WTI prices will climb by 6.4%. This is after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened earlier in the week to impose tariffs on Russian crude buyers, particularly China, India and South Korea, to get them to stop their war against Ukraine. Investors were focused more on Trump's new tariffs, which are largely higher, that will be imposed on U.S. trade partners on August 1. Trump signed an Executive Order on Thursday that imposed tariffs of 10% to 41% for U.S. imports coming from Canada, India, and Taiwan. These countries failed to meet his August deadline to conclude trade agreements. Analysts have warned that the new levies could limit economic growth because they will increase prices and reduce oil consumption. There were signs on Thursday that the existing tariffs in the U.S. are already pushing prices up. The U.S. is the largest economy and the biggest oil consumer. Inflation in the United States increased in June, as tariffs increased prices of imported goods like household furniture and recreational products. The data supports the view that the price pressures will increase in the second half and the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates until October. The higher borrowing costs could also limit economic growth. Trump's threat to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russian crude buyers has supported the price because there was concern that this would disrupt oil trade and remove some oil off the market. In a note published on Thursday, JP Morgan analysts stated that Trump's warnings of sanctions against China and India for their continued purchases of Russian crude oil could put 2,75 million barrels of Russian oil exported by sea at risk. Both countries are among the top three crude oil consumers in the world. Analysts said that the Trump administration will find it impossible to sanction the second largest oil exporter in the world without driving up oil prices.
BMW maintains its guidance despite profit decline and Trump's tariffs
BMW Germany maintained its full-year forecast on Thursday, despite U.S. Tariffs and a drop in quarterly earnings of a third. It argued that its large manufacturing footprint in the country gave it an advantage over its rivals.
Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, on the other hand, have reduced their outlooks.
The European automakers have yet to digest a new 15% auto tariff that was agreed upon between the European Union (EU) and President Donald Trump. Although this is lower than the existing rate of 27,5%, it still represents a significant obstacle for their export-focused business.
BMW, which has its largest plant in the United States, and is Germany's leading auto exporter based on value, continues to expect that 2025 earnings will be comparable to the previous year, when it recorded just under 11 billion euro ($12.6 billion).
This is despite the fact that it issued its initial forecast before Trump imposed tariffs for auto imports.
The company has forecast that its automotive segment will have an EBIT margin of between 5.0-7.0%.
In a press release, Walter Mertl, CFO of Mertl & Company said that "our footprint in the U.S. helps us limit the impact on tariffs."
He added that "thanks to precise financial controls, based upon calculated forecasts, our year-end targets are on track."
BMW said it also assumed that tariff negotiations are ongoing and that its forecast factored in some mitigation measures.
The group anticipates that in 2025 the impact of tariffs on its automotive division's profit margin will be around 1,25 percentage points. The impact on the automotive segment was around 1.5 percentage points in the first half of this year.
The second quarter saw a 32% drop in pretax profits to 2.6 billion euro, mainly due to currency effects, and a decrease in sales from China. The sales in China dropped by 15.5% in the first half.
Analysts had expected a slightly lower quarterly profit result.
The EBIT margin of its auto division was 5.4%. This is just a little below the 5.5% analysts had predicted in a poll conducted by the company, but still within its target range for 2025: 5.0% to 70%.
(source: Reuters)