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London Copper prices rise, but volatility concerns linger
London copper prices rose Thursday despite the fact that the market is expecting volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement. The London Metal Exchange's three-month contract for copper was up 0.4% to $9,683.5 a metric ton at 0706 GMT. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.7% to $ 10,947.40 a ton. A metals analyst in Hangzhou said that "the LME and SHFE prices are diverging because China's demand for copper is seasonal weakening while the LME could be supported by potential U.S. copper tariffs." She said that copper inventories are increasing in SHFE registered warehouses, but slowly, so as not to put too much pressure on SHFE prices. SHFE copper inventories The week ending June 6 saw a rise to 107.404 tons from the week ending May 23. Tuesday, the U.S. reached an agreement with China that restored a trade truce. Beijing removed its export restrictions on rare earths, and Chinese students were allowed to attend U.S. Universities. However, markets are still cautious about future developments. The dollar fell after the Federal Reserve announced that the U.S. Inflation rate rose less than anticipated in May. This suggests the Federal Reserve may cut rates very soon. The metal price is usually supported by a weaker dollar, which makes it more attractive for buyers who use other currencies. Other LME metals include zinc, which rose 0.5% per ton to $2666, lead, up 0.4% at $1995.5, aluminum, which grew 0.2%, and nickel, down 0.2%, to $15140. Tin, however, fell by 0.1% to $32,630. Aluminium gained 1.1% at 20,395 yuan per ton. Zinc rose 0.3% at 22,085 Yuan. Lead gained 0.3% at 16,890 Yuan. Nickel fell 1.2%, to 120,000 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS (GMT) US PPI Machine May 1230 US Initial Jobless Clm Weekly
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German engineering group urges EU to exert pressure on China regarding rare earths
VDMA, an industry association in Germany, warned that the supply of rare earths is becoming increasingly difficult for German equipment and plant manufacturers. It called on the European Union (EU) to exert more pressure on China. VDMA President Bertram Kawlath said to journalists that "we are already seeing rare earths no longer reaching our members." China, which controls 90% of the global processing capacity for rare Earths, used in everything from cars and fighter jets, to home appliances and other products, imposed export restrictions in early April, requiring exporters obtain licenses from Beijing. The new restrictions came after President Donald Trump introduced tariffs against Chinese imports, triggering a trade conflict between the U.S. Thilo Brodtmann, CEO of the VDMA, said that bottlenecks affect a wide range materials including germanium and nitrocellulose. Brodtmann said that China used the measures as a way to exert pressure. He called on the EU to engage in negotiations to end the blockade, but also stressed the need to find other suppliers over the medium- and long-term. Kawlath stated that if there are no alternative suppliers, then the EU and German government should negotiate at the highest levels with China to lift export restrictions. Kawlath added, "We also compete with the U.S. which is keen to secure exclusive rights to these products." Officials from the United States and China announced on Wednesday that China had agreed to relax its export restrictions for rare earths. (Reporting and writing by Tom Kaeckenhoff; editing by Rachel More, Thomas Seythal, and Miranda Murray)
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The key facilities of Iran's nuclear program
The Omani Foreign Minister said that a sixth round of U.S. - Iran nuclear talks would be held in Muscat on Sunday, following the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump that Tehran will not be permitted to possess a nuclear device. Trump stated on Wednesday that U.S. military personnel are being removed from the Middle East, because it "could be a dangerous area". Here are some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities. Where are Iran's nuclear facilities? The Iranian nuclear programme is spread out over many different locations. Despite the fact that Israel has been threatening airstrikes for decades, some sites are only built underground. IRAN HAS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEM? The United States, as well as the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, believe that Iran had a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons program which it stopped in 2003. The Islamic Republic has denied ever possessing or planning one. Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities as part of a 2015 agreement with world powers. The deal fell apart in 2018, when Trump, then in his first term of office as president, pulled out the United States and Iran began to abandon the restrictions. IS IRAN INCREASING ITS URANIUM ENRICHMENT? Yes. Since the deal fell apart, Iran has expanded its uranium-enrichment programme. The time it takes to reach weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon is now days or a little over a week instead of a year as was the case under the 2015 agreement. It would take more time to actually make a bomb using that material. The exact time is not known and the debate continues. Iran enriches uranium up to 60% fissile purity, which is close to 90% weapons-grade. It has two sites where it does this. In theory, the country could make six bombs if they enriched the material further. NATANZ Complex at the centre of Iran's nuclear enrichment program, located on a plain bordering mountains south of Tehran in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom. Natanz is home to two enrichment facilities: the massive, underground Fuel Enrichment plant (FEP) as well as the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plan (PFEP). In 2002, an exiled Iranian group revealed that Iran was building secretly Natanz. This sparked a diplomatic standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear intentions. The standoff continues to this day. The FEP is a facility designed for commercial enrichment, with a capacity of 50,000 centrifuges. There are approximately 16,000 centrifuges installed, of which 13,000 are operational, and they refine uranium up to 5% purity. The FEP is described by diplomats who are familiar with Natanz as being three floors underground. It has been a long-running debate as to how much damage Israeli aircraft could cause. Other means of damage have been used to destroy centrifuges in the FEP, including an explosion that occurred and a power outage in April 2021 which Iran claimed was an Israeli attack. The PFEP above ground houses only hundreds centrifuges, but Iran enriches up to 60% purity here. FORDOW Fordow, on the other side of Qom is a site for enrichment dug into the mountain. It's probably better protected against potential bombardment as the FEP. Iran was not allowed to enrich at Fordow under the 2015 agreement with major powers. The centrifuges are mostly advanced IR-6 machines. Up to 350 of these can enrich up to 60%. In 2009, the United States announced that Iran has been building Fordow secretly for years without informing the IAEA. Then, U.S. president Barack Obama stated: "The size of the facility and its configuration are inconsistent with a peace programme." ISFAHAN Iran's second-largest city, Isfahan has a major nuclear technology center on its outskirts. The facility includes the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant and the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF), which can convert uranium to uranium hexafluoride, which is then fed into centrifuges. Diplomats claim that Iran stores uranium enriched at Isfahan. There is equipment at Isfahan to make uranium metal, a process that is particularly proliferation-sensitive since it can be used to devise the core of a nuclear bomb. Isfahan will be a new location for 2022, according to the IAEA. It has machines that can make centrifuge components. KHONDAB Iran has a heavy-water reactor that is partially constructed. It was originally named Arak, and it's now called Khondab. Heavy-water reactors are a risk for nuclear proliferation because they produce plutonium easily, which can be used, just like enriched Uranium, to create the core of atom bombs. The 2015 agreement saw construction halted and the core of the reactor removed, then filled with concrete, rendering it useless. The reactor would be redesigned to "minimize the production of Plutonium and not produce weapon-grade Plutonium during normal operation". Iran informed the IAEA it planned to begin operating the reactor by 2026. TEHRAN RESERVE CENTRE The Iranian nuclear research facilities at Tehran include a reactor for research. BUSHEHR The only nuclear power plant in Iran, located on the Gulf Coast, uses Russian fuel, which Russia takes back after it has been used, reducing proliferation risks.
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India's palm oil imports in May surged 84% m/m, reaching a six-month high
An industry group said that India's imports of palm oil rose to a six month high in May. This was due to low inventories, and the price difference between palm oil and rivals soyoil or sunflower oil. India's increased imports of palm oil and soyoil, the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oils could support Malaysian palm prices and U.S. futures for soyoil. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported that palm oil imports increased 84% from April, to 592,888 metric tonnes, which is the highest level since November 2024. The SEA reported that India imported more than 750,000 tonnes of palm oil per month on average during the marketing period ending in October 2024. Imports of sunflower oil rose 1.9%, to 183.555 tons. This is the highest level since January. It said that higher imports of soyoil and palm oil lifted India's total imports of vegetable oil in May to 1,19 million tons. This was the highest level since December. SEA data shows that imports below average from January to April resulted in a reduction of domestic vegetable oil stock to 1,33 million tonnes by June 1 - the lowest level since July 2020. Rajesh Patel of GGN Research, a trader in edible oils, says that palm oil imports will likely increase even more in June. The oil is currently trading at a lower price than soyoil. Patel stated that the imports of soyoil in June would remain at around 400,000 tonnes. India imports a large amount of palm oil, primarily from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. A New Delhi-based trader said that vegetable oil imports will increase in the next few months, as this month’s duty reduction is expected to boost demand. India has halved its basic import tax for crude edible oil to 10%, in an effort to lower food prices and support the domestic refinery industry. (Reporting from Rajendra Jadhav in Bengaluru, Anmol Chaubey and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Clarence Fernandez.)
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Iron ore prices fall as the market waits for clarity on Sino-US Trade Talks progress
Iron ore prices fell on Thursday, as investors awaited further details about the trade negotiations between the U.S. The daytime trading of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.21% lower, closing at 704 Yuan ($98.05). As of 0710 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.53% to $84.6 per ton. Trump said on Wednesday that he was extremely happy with the trade deal which restored a fragile truce to the U.S. - China trade war. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Thursday that China would always honor its commitments. It did not elaborate. It would be a good thing if both countries were able to reach an agreement, as this would remove some uncertainty in the export industry, but it could also reduce the likelihood of Beijing introducing more stimuli. Ge Xin said that the focus has temporarily shifted from the deteriorating fundamentals to the Sino-U.S. Trade Talks until there is greater clarity. Ge stated that "Steel production has declined for the past two weeks. This indicates a lower consumption of raw material, including iron ore." Coking coal and coke, which are used in the steelmaking process, have both fallen by 2.79% and 1.7% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks due to a drop in demand. Rebar fell by 0.7%, while hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.87%. Wire rod also declined 0.75%, and stainless steel gained 0.48%. Data from Mysteel revealed that the apparent consumption of five main steel products, rebars, wire rods, hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils, medium plates, and medium plates, fell by 1.6% during the week ending June 12 after a drop of 3.5% in a previous week. $1 = 7.1802 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Harikrishnan Nair).
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Oman confirms the next round of US and Iran nuclear talks amid fears about regional risks
The Omani Foreign Minister announced on Thursday that the sixth round of U.S. - Iran nuclear talks would be held in Muscat on Sunday, following Donald Trump's reiteration on Wednesday that Tehran will not be permitted to possess a nuclear device. Trump announced on Wednesday that U.S. personnel was being relocated from the Middle East, because it "could be a dangerous area". U.S. sources and Iraqi ones said that earlier, the U.S. prepared to evacuate its Iraqi Embassy and allow military dependents leave Middle East locations due to increased security risks. The four U.S. sources and two Iraqi ones did not specify what security concerns prompted this decision. The reports of a possible evacuation drove up oil prices more than 4%, before prices began to ease on Thursday. A senior Iraqi official in charge of operations at the southern oilfields said that foreign energy companies continued their normal operations. An official from the State Department of the United States confirmed that Bahrain and Kuwait had been authorized to leave on their own accord. The State Department updated their worldwide travel advisories on Wednesday evening in order to reflect the most recent U.S. position. The advisory stated that "on June 11, the Department of State issued an order to depart non-emergency U.S. Government personnel due the increased tensions in the region." The U.S. decision to evacuate personnel occurs at a time of high tension in the region. Trump's attempts to reach a deal on a nuclear weapon with Iran seem to have hit a deadlock. U.S. Intelligence indicates that Israel is preparing for an attack against Iran's nucleus facilities. Trump told reporters, "They're being moved because it could potentially be a dangerous area. We'll see what happens." "We have given notice to leave." When asked if anything could be done in order to lower temperatures in the area, Trump replied: "They cannot have a nuclear weapons." They can't possess a nuclear device. Trump has repeatedly warned to strike Iran should the stuttering nuclear talks fail. In an interview published earlier on Wednesday, Trump said that he was less confident in Tehran's willingness to agree to stop enriching Uranium. This is a major American demand. A senior Iranian official said to Press TV that the departure of U.S. military dependents did not pose a threat, even though it raised concerns over a possible regional escalate. Shipping Warning Iran's Defence Minister warned Washington on Wednesday that Tehran will strike U.S. bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and if it is drawn into war. The United States maintains a strong military presence in the oil-producing regions of the world, with bases located in Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar as well as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. A U.S. official confirmed that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth authorized the voluntary removal of military dependents across the Middle East. A second U.S. official confirmed that this was mainly relevant for family members based in Bahrain, where the majority of them reside. The British maritime agency warned on Wednesday that tensions in the Middle East could lead to a military activity escalation that would impact shipping along critical waterways. It warned vessels to exercise caution when travelling through the Gulf of Oman, Straits of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, all of which border Iran. Since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023 tensions in Iraq have increased, as Iran-aligned groups have repeatedly attacked U.S. forces, although attacks have decreased since last year. Reporting by Daphne Psaledakis and Idrees Al, Humeyra Pauk, Steve Holland, and Jeff Mason in Washington; Michelle Nichols and Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad; Parisa Hafezi and Timour Azhari, in Dubai; and Ahmed Elimam. Additional reporting by Sam Tabahriti and Aidan Lewis in London.
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The Gulf countries retreat over geopolitical issues
The major stock markets of the Gulf region fell on Thursday morning amid uncertainty over the U.S. move to remove personnel from the Middle East in advance of the nuclear talks with Iran. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that U.S. personnel was being removed from the Middle East on Wednesday because it "could be a dangerous area." He added that the United States wouldn't allow Iran to possess a nuclear device. According to U.S. sources and Iraqi ones, it was reported on Wednesday that due to increased security risks in the Middle East the U.S. will be preparing to evacuate its Iraqi Embassy and allow dependents of military personnel to leave certain locations throughout the Middle East. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index fell 1.3%, as all of its constituents were in the negative zone including Al Rajhi Bank which was down by 0.6%. Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, was among other losers. Its shares fell by 0.4%. The U.S. decision to evacuate personnel occurs at a time of high tension in the region. Trump's attempts to reach a deal on a nuclear weapon with Iran seem to have hit a deadlock. U.S. Intelligence indicates that Israel is preparing for an attack against Iran's nucleus facilities. Aziz Nasirzadeh, the Iranian Minister of Defence, said that on Wednesday if Iran were to be attacked it would respond by attacking U.S. bases located in the area. Dubai's main stock index fell 1.7% intraday, its largest fall since April. Losses across sectors were to blame, but the blue-chip developer Emaar Properties was at the forefront of this decline, with a 3% drop. ADNOC Gas' 2% drop in price caused the index to fall 1% in Abu Dhabi. The Qatari Index traded 0.8% lower with the petrochemical manufacturer Industries Qatar falling 1%.
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Sources say that RPT-Barrick Mining has removed the Mali gold complex production forecast for 2025.
Four sources have confirmed that Barrick Mining removed the Mali gold complex's output forecast from 2025. This is a result of a two-year dispute with West African authorities over new mining laws aimed at increasing revenue. The Loulo-Gounkoto complex, one the Canadian miner’s largest assets in Africa, has been closed since January. This is because the military-led government of Mali blocked gold exports, detained employees and seized 3 metric tons during separate negotiations for a new mining agreement with Barrick. Both sides are hoping to make at least $1 billion in revenue this year, thanks to the record-high gold prices. Barrick's shares are lagging behind those of its peers, and Mali is at risk of repelling investors. Sources spoke under condition of anonymity, as they weren't authorized to speak in public. Barrick's spokespersons and the Mali Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Barrick's Mali production forecast has not been made public. Morningstar analysts, however, had predicted that Mali would contribute approximately 250,000 ounces by 2025. Jefferies reports that Mali, as a shareholder, requested a court to appoint an interim administrator in May. This would mean Barrick losing control of the mines, which accounted for 14% its total production. On Thursday, a court hearing is scheduled to be held on this matter. Parallel to the court case, negotiations are underway. Two people with knowledge of the situation said that Mali made a concession by allowing Barrick to repatriate 20 percent of its earnings to an international account. This was a concession not granted to any other foreign miner who had recently renegotiated their contracts with the government. Mali and Barrick still have a disagreement over the future handling of disputes. According to a source and a person familiar with the issue, Barrick believes that any new mining contracts should be covered by an international treaty. In the event of disputes in the future, they will be resolved through international arbitration. The threat of a temporary administration has investors worried, according to one source. Even though strong gold prices have helped Barrick increase its global revenue, a threat of a temporary administration is a concern, another source said. Barrick initiated international arbitration proceedings in December against Mali. In May, Barrick asked the World Bank arbitration court to stop court proceedings in Bamako due to provisional administration. Two people who were aware of this development said that the tribunal denied the request. The President of the Arbitration Tribunal for this case declined to comment. Barrick's revenues in the first nine-month period of 2024 were $949 million due to production in Mali. Jefferies estimated in a December report that Barrick's earnings for 2025 would be reduced by 11% if its Mali complex remained idle. This was before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization. Mali, Africa's largest gold producer, is ranked third in the world. The Malian authorities who seized power through coups in 2020 and in 2021 say that their current Barrick agreement is unfair. The state has negotiated with other multinational miner companies. Last year, the chief executive of Australian mining company Resolute spent more than a full week in detention during negotiations. Reporting by Divyarajagopal from Toronto and PortiaCrowe in Dakar, Editing by Veronica Brown & Rod Nickel
Iron ore reaches a 2-week high after Sino-US trade truce; caution limits gains
Iron ore futures reached a two-week high Tuesday, supported by an interim trade agreement between China and the U.S., but caution about a final deal, and a possible slowdown in near-term demand, limited gains.
The day-traded price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1.06% higher, closing at 714.5 Yuan ($99.34).
The contract reached its highest level since April 24, at 727 Yuan, earlier in the session.
As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark June iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.7%, to $99.3 per ton, after reaching its highest level since April 24, at $100.35.
On Monday, U.S. agreed that it would reduce levies for Chinese imports by 145% and 30% during a 90-day period of negotiation. China announced that it would lower duties on U.S. imported goods from 125% and 10%. This boosted sentiments and led to a general price rise across commodities.
The initial excitement faded as uncertainty over the final deal and seasonal slow demand arose, causing concerns about a sluggish demand for ore in the coming week.
Analysts at Shengda Futures expect that the hot metal production will show signs of a slowdown in late May.
Analysts at CICC say that the lower hot metal production is expected to coincide when miners increase shipments in order to meet quarterly targets. This will add downward pressure to prices.
The hot metal product is typically used as a gauge for iron ore demand.
The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced.
The DCE also saw a decline in other steelmaking ingredients, including coking coal, which fell 0.85%, and coke, which dropped 0.69%. $1 = 7.1925 Chinese yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Sonia Cheema).
(source: Reuters)