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China's steel sector is not as bleak as it appears: Russell

China's steel output fell in November from October, relatively another indication of the struggles in the world's most significant manufacturer of the crucial metal for construction and production.

However while November production did drop 4.3% from October, the detail is far more nuanced and the huge picture reveals China's. steel sector is mostly constant, as it has been for the past 5. years.

Unrefined steel output worldwide's biggest manufacturer was 78.4. million metric tons in November, below 81.88 million in. October, information from the National Bureau of Data showed on. Monday.

However, on a loads per day basis, November was 2.61 million. heaps, down only 1.1% from October's 2.64 million and greater than. the 2.54 million from November 2023.

It's likely that output reduced in October as steel mills saw. margins squeezed by greater iron ore rates and softer costs for. key steel products such as rebar.

Steel production likewise tends to moderate as the northern. winter approaches, partially as demand relieves with colder weather condition. cutting building and construction, but likewise steel mills tend to undergo. maintenance and face pollution control steps in some locations.

For the first 11 months of the year, China's steel output. was 929.19 million lots, down 2.7% from the same period last. year.

However, it's most likely that December's production will be available in. greater than December 2023, which at 67.44 million loads was the. weakest in 6 years.

This means that 2024 output is likely to be around 1 billion. lots, roughly in line with the 1.02 billion lots produced in. 2023.

Nevertheless, given 2024 production is most likely to be a little down. from 2023's figure, the media headlines will most likely be. downbeat when the last information is launched early next year.

This isn't a precise image. In volume terms, China's. steel output has actually been mostly steady because 2019.

Production hit 996 million heaps in 2019, before rising to a. record 1.07 billion tons in 2020 and after that alleviating to 1.03 billion. in 2021 and 1.01 billion in 2022.

In other words, because 2019 the gap between the weakest year. and the greatest for steel output was a mere 74 million heaps,. and in recent years the gap has been even smaller.

Basically China's steel production has flatlined, and. while this isn't a bullish story, it's far from the bearish. story that is the present market consensus.

EXPORTS, INVENTORIES

What has shifted slightly is that China is exporting more. steel items, with 101.15 million tons being shipped out in. the first 11 months of 2024, a gain of 22.6% from the very same. period last year.

Assuming December steel item exports are mainly in line. with November, that suggests total exports for the year are likely. to be around 110 million heaps.

This would be about 22% greater than the 90.26 million tons. exported in 2023, however in volume terms it is only about 20. million loads more, or about 2% of China's total steel. production.

China's steel inventories are likewise not rising, suggesting the. bulk of steel being produced is actually being taken in.

Rebar stocks << SH-TOT-RBARINV > kept an eye on by specialists. SteelHome dropped to 3.05 million loads in the week to Dec. 13,. down from 3.10 million the previous week, and also below the. 3.51 million from the exact same week in 2023.

Another indication that China's steel sector isn't carrying out. severely is that iron ore imports and rates remain robust.

Imports of iron ore, the essential steel raw material, were 1.124. billion heaps in the first 11 months of 2024, up 4.3% from the. exact same period in 2023.

Steel mills have actually raised iron ore purchases as the rate. trended weaker over 2024, with the Singapore Exchange contract. having actually dropped from a peak of $143.60 a ton on Jan. 4. to a low of $91.10 on Sept. 10, before recovering to end at. $ 105.66 on Monday.

The overall picture from China's steel sector is that modest. iron ore costs are supporting imports, and steel production is. holding up in spite of concerns over a weak home. sector.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)