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Bleak times for copper smelters as conversion fees slump: Andy Home

An unmatched collapse in conversion costs spells tough times for the global copper smelting sector. The benchmark smelter treatment charges for next year have been set by Chilean copper miner Antofagasta and China's. Jiangxi Copper.

Smelters such as Jiangxi will receive just $21.50 per metric. load and 2.125 cents per pound for smelting and refining. concentrates from Antofagasta's mines to make refined copper.

That is a big drop from this year's standard of $80.00 per. lot and 8.0 cents and the most affordable result in a minimum of 20 years.

At other times the plunge might have been read as a bullish. indication of mine shortfall. However by copper's requirements, mine supply. has had a fairly untroubled year. Global production is on. track to grow by 2.0% in 2024.

Rather, the stress is from the opposite of the. supply-demand equation.

International smelter capability has broadened too quickly, especially. in China. A lot of smelters are chasing after a finite amount of feed. and the competition might intensify in 2025.

ABUNDANT GROWTH

China's copper smelting capacity will grow from 14.26. million lots in 2024 to 16 million in 2025 and near 17. million in 2027, Ge Honglin, chairman of the China Nonferrous. Metals Market Association, informed a conference in late. October.

Fierce competitors for raw materials to feed all this new. capacity has kept spot smelter treatment charges at rock-bottom. levels this year. The country's leading producers fulfilled in March and accepted suppress. output to avoid processing charges from falling even more.

Any cuts they made were just sufficient to brake the production. momentum. Nationwide output still grew by 5.0% year-on-year in. January-November, according to local data provider Shanghai. Metal Market.

That's why the shortfall in mined concentrates has not been. shown in the refined metal segment of the copper. supply-chain.

Undoubtedly, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). estimates the global refined copper market registered a. 402,000-ton supply surplus in the very first 9 months of the. year.

MARGIN CAPTURE

Smelters do not just depend on treatment charges for their. income.

They can generate income from spin-offs such as gold, silver. and sulphuric acid. They can tweak payability and payment term. provisions to improve profits.

They can likewise opt to split their pricing between the yearly. standard in the very first half of 2025 and the mid-year benchmark. in the second half, although that only works if treatment. charges have actually recovered already.

But smelter ingenuity can just alleviate so much of the. continuous capture on margins.

China's smelter issues will be intensified by. expansion in the remainder of the world.

Smelters are coming online in Indonesia and the Democratic. Republic of Congo next year, reducing those nations' exports. of mined concentrates.

The start-up of the Adani smelter in India suggests another new. buyer in the international concentrates market.

The ICSG forecasts mine supply development to speed up to 3.5%. next year but even that might not be enough to fulfill smelter. demand.

SCRAP THREAT

Lots of Chinese smelters can change their input blend away from. mined concentrates to ditch copper.

While China's imports of copper focuses grew by simply. 3.2% in the very first 10 months of 2024, those of recyclable scrap. jumped by 16%. However, the inbound Donald Trump administration postures a threat. to the flow of U.S. scrap to China. Deliveries ground to a near. stop in 2019 and 2020 after China struck back against U.S. tariffs by enforcing a 25% task on U.S. recyclable copper.

Trump has again dialled up the tariff rhetoric and Chinese. scrap importers are currently calling down their purchases of. U.S. scrap, fearing a rerun of the tariff wars.

The United States is the 2nd biggest provider of scrap. copper to China after Malaysia. Chinese imports of U.S. product. amounted to 363,000 tons in the first 10 months of 2024,. representing nearly a fifth of the nation's overall get in touch with the. international market.

A synchronised capture on mined focuses and scrap. schedule is going to pose a tough difficulty for China's. smelters in the months ahead.

They may not all endure.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .

(source: Reuters)