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Asia markets are choppy due to Trump's threat of a levy on the Gulf of Hormuz.
The stock market fluctuated between gains and losses on Tuesday, and oil reached a new high of one month in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would re-impose its blockade of Iranian ships in the Gulf. He also said the U.S. would charge a 20% surcharge on all cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 0.4% in a volatile session. The gains were led by 2.2% for Korean shares. Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.2% while S&P500 e-minis futures were down 0.1%. Brent crude futures rose 2.6% to $85.50 per barrel, the highest price since mid-June. Trading resumed in Asia. The markets were also shaken by the hawkish remarks made on Monday by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said that the U.S. Central Bank may have to increase interest rates in the near future if inflation continues well above its 2% target. Chris Weston of Pepperstone Group Ltd, Melbourne, stated that "markets reacted aggressively to the recent headlines about the Iran conflict." The prospect of tighter monetary policies into a possible energy shock rarely supports risk assets. Overnight, Wall Street stocks fell and oil futures soared by more than 9%, as the conflict between Iran and the United States re-ignited and once again choked the flow of goods across the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 ended 0.8% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%. The U.S. CPI is expected to be released later on Tuesday, and then Fed Chair Warsh will give the semi-annual monetary report of the central bank. Fed funds futures price in an implied 43.3% chance of a 25 basis-point 'hike' at the U.S. Central Bank's next two day meeting on July 28 and 29, compared to a 34.2% chance last Friday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up 2.2 basis point at 4.6297%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, was at 101.29 and trading near its highest levels for the month. Gold fell 0.1% to $3,997.27. Stocks in Seoul fluctuated between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as shares of SK Hynix fell as much as 4.7% in the opening minutes of trading, before rallying and trading up to 4.6% higher. The memory chipmaker's volatility comes after its dramatic drop a day before following its Nasdaq launch last week. Bitcoin was up 0.3% to $62,318.43, while ether rose 0.7% to $1,777.63. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Australia blocks the voting rights of certain China-linked investors at Northern Minerals
Northern Minerals announced?on?Tuesday that Australian Treasurer, Jim?Chalmers, has ordered three 'offshore 'investment firms - including Hong Kong Ying Tak - to refrain from exercising voting rights within the rare earths developer. Foreign Investment Review Board of Australia (FIRB) has said that Hong Kong Ying Tak and?British Virgin Islands registered Real International Resources as well as Hong Kong registered?Qogir Trading & Service have failed to comply to earlier government 'orders to reduce stakes in Northern Minerals. In May, Treasurer Chalmers?ordered offshore shareholders to divest by July?2 their?holdings over concerns that Chinese-linked groups were seeking control of rare-earths mining company. Ying Tak's phone number and email address are not listed in the Hong Kong companies registry. Adam Handley, Northern Minerals' Executive Chair, said that the Federal Treasurer had issued interim instructions regarding compliance with his May Disposal orders. Handley stated that a review of Northern Minerals' share registry on July 10 found that the majority of shares covered by May divestment were still held by the investors targeted by these orders.
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Oil reaches a one-month high after US and Iran intensify attacks on Strait of Hormuz
The price of oil rose 2% to its highest level in four weeks on Tuesday as the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade of?Iran and the U.S. and Iran intensified their attacks in the Strait of?Hormuz. This increased uncertainty over?energy flow. Brent crude futures rose $1.68 or 2% to $84.98 a barrel at 0051 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude gained $1.65 or 2.1% to $79.79 a barrel. Brent crude gained 9.6% during the previous session. This was its largest daily gain since May 2019. The oil prices have reached their highest level since June 17, when the two countries signed an agreement to end the conflict. The UAE Ministry of Defence announced on Monday that two United Arab Emirates tanks were struck by "two Iranian cruise missiles" in the southern lane of Strait of Hormuz, in Omani territory waters. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others injured. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, told reporters the United States has reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships, and that he wants to be reimbursed by the U.S. for helping countries in the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that the latest escalation has brought new risks to the market. He added that, "While there hasn't been a complete closure yet, the conflicting objectives of both parties have made the supply situation highly uncertain." U.S. Central Command announced that it had begun a third night of attacks against Iran. Meanwhile, the semi-official YJC News Agency in Tehran reported early on Tuesday morning that seven explosions could be heard near Bandar Abbas port and two others on Kish Island. Yemen's Houthi group also fired missiles towards Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of having bombed an airport that it controlled on Monday. Simon Wong, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds said in a recent note that if the Houthis continue their attack on Saudi crude oil products in the Red Sea it would create (further?) uncertainty for crude shipments from the region. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have declined last week while gasoline and distillate inventories likely increased. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Vault and Genesis merge to create an $8.71 billion Australian gold company
Genesis Minerals announced that it had 'agreed' to buy smaller rival?Vault Minerals?in a transaction which would make Australia the third largest gold producer, with a market cap of approximately A$12.6billion ($8.71billion). Regis Resources dropped its pursuit of Vault after stating the terms required to match Genesis’ offer did not meet their value and return goals. The rival bid from 'Genesis,' announced last week, valued Vault at A$5.6 billion and was 15.7% higher than the closing price of Vault at that time. Due to the close proximity of their respective operations in Western Australia, Bardoc-Mount Monger and Leonora, the combination is expected to yield a?synergy of A$2 billion. This could allow Genesis to mill its higher-grade ore through Vault, rather than having to expand their own processing plant. Genesis shareholders will own around 59.8%, and?Vault shares the remaining 40%. The Vault board unanimously approved the plan. The combined entity will have a board that consists of four Genesis directors and 3 Vault directors. Russell Clark, the non-executive chairman of Vault, will remain in his role at the combined group. Genesis CEO Matt Nixon is to be named 'chief executive officer' of the merged entity. Vault and Regis?shares?were down by as much as 2,2% and 2.7% respectively, parallel to a 3% drop?in ASX's gold sub-index. Bullion prices fell 3% in one day as tensions in the Middle East increased the likelihood of longer-term interest rates in the United States.
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Iraqi Prime Minister seeks large energy investment on US visit
Zaidi Bets on US Companies to Stimulate Energy Sector The Iran War has caused a major economic blow to Iraq Zaidi to meet Trump for possible deals Written by?Ahmed Rasheed & Muayad Haeed BAGHDAD (July 13) - Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hopes to secure significant U.S. investments in his country's energy, oil, and gas sectors, during a trip to the White House, this week. The Iran War has impacted crude production and the state finances. Analysts say that Iraq's government has a growing focus on diversifying international relationships to better deal with regional instability. This agenda is expected to be a major part of the visit from July 13 to 18th. This is one of the most direct attempts to date to attract major U.S. investments into a sector that has long been dominated by Chinese and Russian firms. Iraqi officials, however, reject any suggestion Baghdad was distancing themselves from their close ally Tehran for closer ties with Washington. Ahmed Younis, a political analyst based in Baghdad, said that the Iran war marked a turning-point. It highlighted the dangers of relying too heavily on a single partner in the region. He said that "Zaidi believes energy is the fastest way to deepen cooperation with Washington." According to Iraqi officials and U.S. government officials, the effort involves negotiations with Chevron on major upstream projects; support for U.S. backed power and liquefied gas ventures;?security assurances for American operators operating in Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdistan Region, and revived export pipeline plans linking Iraq to Mediterranean markets. Zaidi’s cabinet has approved a number of initiatives, including an agreement with HKN Energy, based in the United States, to develop the Himreen Oilfield in northern Iraq. The government also authorized the Electricity Ministry, which is responsible for negotiating a comprehensive agreement with General Electric to expand Iraq's transmission and generation infrastructure. Zaidi stated that the government planned to increase oil production "significantly" within three years. This was according to a press release from his office. The remarks were made during a Washington meeting with Iraqi Christian businesspeople, who he encouraged to invest in education, healthcare, and petroleum products. These deals will be the focus of a discussion between Zaidi, an Iraqi multimillionaire, who was appointed in May, as well as Donald Trump, U.S. president, who has given Zaidi strong support. Zaidi stated in a press release issued before the trip that "we have instructed the Ministries of Oil and Electricity to give priority in their procurement to American companies with reputable track records in the fields of energy, technology, and telecommunications." Focus on U.S. Companies vs. Chinese, Russian and European companies Analysts say it will be difficult to attract enough investment for the development of oilfields, and fixing infrastructure bottlenecks which have prevented sustained increases in production. A document that was seen by showed that the Iraqi Cabinet instructed the Basra Oil Company, the state-run oil company in Iraq, to exempt U.S. companies involved in energy project discussions from certain regulatory requirements relating to preliminary agreements in early June. Mohammed Abbas is an energy consultant and former manager of the Basra Oil Company, which is run by the state. "Zaidi uses Iraq's oil sector to strengthen relations with Washington, and to change the perception of some U.S. major energy companies that Iraq is not a conducive environment for large-scale investments." Four Iraqi oil officials who are familiar with the discussions with U.S. companies, including Chevron and ExxonMobil -- as well as?HKN -- have said that the move underscores Baghdad's broader efforts to deepen its economic cooperation with the United States. Iraq is attempting to reach out as it faces the same challenge as many other oil-producing countries: attracting investors and increasing production while remaining constrained by OPEC+ producer's group output limits. Iraq has some of the largest crude oil reserves in the world, but long-standing production restrictions have made it difficult to increase revenues to support an ever-growing population. Iraq's strategy has been shaped by its negotiations with Chevron. Chevron began exclusive talks with Iraq earlier this year over the West Qurna-2 Oilfield after Baghdad replaced Russia's Lukoil, the?operator. This could have given the U.S. firm control over one of Iraq's largest and most productive assets. Iraqi legislators and analysts have indicated that the energy initiatives of the government are meant to signal Washington that Iraq has become a more attractive location for international investment following years of'security concerns, bureaucratic obstacles, and legal disputes. The security situation has significantly improved since the defeat of Islamic State a decade back, but periodic drone attacks and tensions in the region continue to be a threat to energy infrastructure. Iraqi officials claim that security measures around oil installations have been strengthened since the Iran conflict. Additional measures are also being taken to reassure foreign energy companies. "Prime Minister Zaidi is a businessman and knows that winning over American companies to invest in Iraq, especially with the fragile security situation in the region, is not an easy task," said Murad ISMAEL, a member of Iraq's oil and gas parliamentary committee. (Reporting and editing by Michael Georgy and Aidan Lewis; Additional reporting by Enas Alashray; and Lincoln Feast.
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Trump notifies Congress that the Iran conflict has resumed
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has sent a formal notification to Congress that hostilities against Iran resumed on 7 July. His administration interprets this letter as opening up a 60-day window for the use of military forces in the region without the approval of Congress. Trump wrote in a letter dated July 10 that he had taken 'this military action' to protect Americans, the United States and its national security interests. The letter details Trump's actions, including his order of a ceasefire for two weeks on April 7 which was then extended and his administration's attempts to find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. On February 28, the United States and Israel began an attack on Iran. Trump referred to the Memorandum of Understanding he signed with Iran on 17 June, and claimed that Iran violated it when they attacked commercial vessels passing through the 'Strait of Hormuz. This prompted him to order new strikes against the Islamic Republic. Trump announced on Monday that the U.S. would re-establish its blockade against Iranian shipping in Gulf waters and ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open as the conflict intensified. According to the U.S. Constitution, only Congress has the authority to declare war, and not the President. The U.S. Constitution says that only Congress, not the president, has the power to declare war. WAR POWERS Act The War Powers Act states that the president must inform Congress of hostilities within 48 hours and that military actions begun without Congress?approval should be ended within 60 days. The first deadline for Iran was May 1. But the Republican President said that it didn't apply, because he "declared hostilities to be terminated" by the ceasefire even though attacks continued, and the U.S. Forces blockaded Iranian ports. Democrats and Republican opponents to the war in Iraq said that the administration misinterpreted the law. Under the condition of anonymity, a senior House of Representatives Democratic adviser said: "The President can't simply wish away months of war that he claimed would only last four to six weeks." The Senate and House passed resolutions?last week directing Trump to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran despite the slim majority of Republicans in both chambers. The vote reflected the growing concern over the conflict that lasted for months. Trump reacted angrily after the vote. He accused those who voted for it of "comforting" Iran and "making his job more difficult."
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Argentina's YPF Electric Energy reveals a revenue increase in its US IPO application
YPF Electric Energy, an Argentinian energy company, announced a '45.8% increase in quarterly revenues in its IPO filing on Monday. It joined a 'wave' of companies from a similar sector that are seeking a New YORK IPO amid improved market sentiment. Investor confidence has increased in Argentina following President Javier Milei’s market-oriented Reforms and renewed interest for the country’s energy sector. Argentinian energy firm Genneia filed for an IPO in the United States earlier this month. Pure-play power company YPF Electric Energy operates 17 thermal power plants and renewable energy sources with a total installed capacity of 3,764 megawatts (MW). Josef Schuster, CEO of IPOX, said: "Given the significant size and position amongst Argentina's leading utilities, I believe that there will be significant interest in the IPO on a principle basis." The strong debut by Korea's SK Hynix last week shows that the IPO window is wide open for large foreign companies to list in the U.S. YPF Electric Energy is motivated to list and trade in the U.S. now, he said. YPF Electric Energy has a portfolio of renewable energy sources, including wind and solar farms. These contributed 19% to the electricity they supplied in the year ended March 31, The remainder came from thermal power generation. YPF Electric Energy stated that the amount of renewable energy will increase as newly completed plants begin to operate. The Buenos Aires company's revenue for the?three-month period ended March 31 was $217.2 millions, up from $149million a year ago. Its net profit grew to $66.5million from $43.4million. Shareholder 'BNR Power Investments', owned by GE Vernova, and China Silk Road Fund, sells shares at the IPO. YPF Electric Energy won't receive any of the proceeds from the offering. Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities - and Citigroup - are the global coordinators for the IPO. YPF Electric Energy is going to list American Depositary shares (ADS), on the NYSE, under the symbol "YLUZ." Each ADS represents 10 Class B Common Shares. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Ananda in Bengaluru, Prakhar Srivastava)
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As the Gulf conflict flares again, oil prices surge, stocks fall and bond yields increase.
On Monday, oil futures rose nearly 9% and stocks fell as the conflict between the United States and Iran flared up over the weekend. This has once again affected the flow of goods across 'the 'key Strait of Hormuz. Tehran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, an important global shipping artery, over the weekend. Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. would reinstate its blockade against Iranian shipping in Gulf. Trump promised to keep the Strait open at a cost, even though the U.S. had not been able wrest control from Iran of the waterway since the beginning of the war in February. The re-start of the blockade shocked oil markets, which had been rising after both sides exchanged drone and missile attacks at the weekend. U.S. crude ended up 9.4% or $6.73 to $78.14 per barrel. Brent finished at $83.30 a barrel, an increase of 9.6% or $7.29. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth in Fairfield Connecticut. He said that the trading of bombs between Iran and the United States is a major issue. It's the same old uncertainty about the Middle East. What will be the resolution and when? MSCI's index of stocks around the world fell 10.26 points or 0.9% to?1,116.28. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 138.37, or 0.3% to 52,498.64. The S&P 500 dropped 60.05, or 0.8% to 7,515.34 while the Nasdaq Composite closed the session at 25,873.18 down 408,43 points or 1.6%. On Monday, technology shares were the most weak sector as investors sold shares related to artificial-intelligence and semiconductors. SK Hynix shares listed in the United States finished down 9%, after a sharp rally on their Nasdaq launch on Friday. South Korea's KOSPI KOSPI finished down almost 9% overnight. This?index is now a leading global barometer of sentiment in the chip sector. The pan-European STOXX 600 finished the day down by 0.01%. U.S. Treasury rates rose after the U.S.-Iran conflict and rising oil prices sparked concerns about inflation and its potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policies. The yield of the U.S. benchmark 10-year note increased 5.06 basis points from 4.569% to 4.62% late Friday. The 30-year bond rate rose 3.31 basis point to 5.104%. The yield on the two-year bond, which moves typically in line with Federal Reserve expectations of interest rates, rose 6.71 basis to 4.275%. This is its highest yield since 2025. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenbacks against a basket of currencies including the yen, the euro and others, rose by 0.26% at 101.32. However, the euro fell by 0.32% to $1.1377. The dollar gained 0.48% against the Japanese yen to 162.47. The pound fell 0.47%, to $1.3345 at the beginning of a crucial week in British politics. Andy Burnham will be formally appointed as Labour leader this Friday. He is also expected to become UK Prime Minister on July 20, after he has been officially named. The precious metals market fell due to concerns about the possibility of higher interest rates in the United States for a longer period. Spot gold dropped 3% to $3.998.52 per ounce, while spot silver dropped 3.8% to $57.56. (Reporting and editing by Helen Popper; Chizu Nomiyama Susan Fenton David Gaffen, Helen Popper and Stefano Rebaudo)
Venezuela's complicated and contested debt problem
Investors will be able to determine the losses they could face based on the size of Venezuela's debt and the creditors who hold it. This could be the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history.
Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics for years and sanctions in 2017 have largely isolated Venezuela from the Western financial community. Caracas previously stated that it would?complete a complete debt assessment by the?end of June. Calixto Ortega, the government's economic adviser, said on Monday that the government would present a debt sustainability assessment "in the next few weeks" and incorporate the economic impact from the earthquakes last month into its restructuring plan.
Uncertainty remains about whether a more detailed assessment will be made public. The Financial Times reported that Venezuela is set to reveal a debt pile larger than expected, of $240 billion.
Here are some details about what we do and don't currently know about Venezuela's debt:
WHAT IS CARACAS'S BOND DUTY? Venezuela announced in May that it plans to restructure the outstanding commercial Eurobonds issued by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), a state-owned oil company, and its government.
Since the default in 2017, these bonds have accrued interest. JPMorgan estimates that total bond claims include past-due interests and amount to $102 billion.
A deal could be complicated by different terms.
A PDVSA 2020 bond is backed by the majority share of U.S. refiner Citgo. Older bonds are more susceptible to holdout litigation.
Elecar, the Electricidad de Caracas company, has also issued a bond worth $650 million for the electricity sector.
How much does VENEZUELA owe to other governments?
According to reports, the total bilateral lending of Venezuela is approximately $25 billion.
Bilateral creditors often restructure first. The Paris Club, a grouping of 22 official creditors nations, usually sets the benchmarks for debt relief that other creditors are expected to provide.
Venezuela ?owes Paris Club members $8.69 billion.
AidData reports that Russia has extended at least two loan over the last 15 years. This includes $3.2 billion in 2017 restructured. Venezuela owes China an 'important amount' through oil-backed loan that could give Beijing a competitive edge over other creditors. JPMorgan estimates that these obligations are between $13 billion and $15 billion. Beijing has condemned the redirection in January of Venezuelan oil imports and stated that "legitimate interests and rights of China and other nations in Venezuela must protected".
Venezuela is vague on plans to address the official debt. It says that this will be done through "institutional standardization", without revealing any details or if it would include a formal restructuring.
What does CARACAS owe to multilateral lenders?
The country owes about $4 billion to multilateral development banks, according to Fitch, chiefly to Caracas-headquartered CAF Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
These institutions are usually preferred creditors and do not expect to suffer losses during a restructuring.
How much do arbitration claims and court awards amount to?
Following expropriations by former president Hugo Chavez, more than 50 companies filed claims against Venezuela and PDVSA. Transparencia Venezuela's data and that of #PublicDebtIsPublic, which compiled the information, show that arbitration awards and court judgements total more than $20 billion. This excludes past due interest. However, this group cautions their data may not capture all claims. Citgo Petroleum is being sold by court order to some creditors, but this requires U.S. approval.
Arbitration awards or court judgments are legally binding claims that are held by diverse creditors who lack a collective mechanism to bind the parties into a negotiated agreement. Experts say that they account for at least 10% in Venezuela's debt.
The rest is up to you.
Where is the rest of the $40 billion?
Some debts were never litigated or arbitrated, which makes them more difficult to track. Repsol, a Spanish oil company, claims Venezuela owes it EUR4,55 billion ($5.16billion). Meanwhile, ENI, an Italian firm, said that its back-due PDVSA bills would reach $3.3 billion at the end of 2025, including $1 billion in interest.
Promissory notes, which are legally binding IOUs tied to export credits or supplier credits, can also be claimed.
Investors were concerned that domestic debt would also be included in the total, and it could be difficult to determine whether they are legal.
Investors may be unsure of how debts and claims are evaluated without an external audit, or the involvement of?institutions like the IMF or World Bank. Venezuela was ranked 180th among 182 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2025.
It could be a contentious issue if certain claims are deemed valid and included in the debt restructuring area. This could increase the total debt amount, and cause creditors to suffer greater losses.
(source: Reuters)