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Indians suffer from respiratory problems and skin rashes after living in the world's worst polluted city
Sumaiya Ansari was suffering from breathing difficulties for several days prior to being hospitalized in March. She was given oxygen support. Doctors say that her illness is likely caused by high pollution levels. According to IQAir's estimates, Byrnihat’s average annual PM2.5 concentration was 128.2 milligrams per cubic meter in 2024, which is over 25 times higher than the WHO recommended level. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases, including heart problems. Abdul Halim, Ansari’s father, said, "It was scary. She was breathing like fish." He brought Ansari home after two days in the hospital. According to data from the government, respiratory infections cases in the region increased to 3,681 by 2024, up from 2,082 in 2012. Dr. J Marak, of Byrnihat Primary Healthcare Centre, said that 90% of the patients he sees daily have a cough and/or other respiratory problems. Residents report that the toxic air causes skin rashes, eye irritations, damages crops and prevents them from doing routine tasks such as drying their laundry outside. Dildar Hussain, a farmer, said: "Everything has been covered in dust or soot." Critics claim that Byrnihat's pollution problem is indicative of a larger trend that affects not only India's major cities but also the Capitalism As industrialisation accelerates, environmental protections are being eroded. Government data shows that the air quality in Byrnihat remains poor throughout the year. Experts say that the pollution problem in this town is worsened by the fact that it has a "bowl-shaped" topography and 80 industries, many of which are highly polluting. Arup Misra, the chairman of Assam’s pollution control board, said that the terrain between Meghalaya's hills and Assam’s plains is too narrow for pollutants to spread. A Meghalaya official, who declined to be identified, stated that the town's geographical location made it harder to find a solution, as both states shifted blame between themselves. Assam, Meghalaya and IQAir have formed a joint committee to fight the pollution in Byrnihat. (Reporting and writing by Tora Aggarwala, Sakshi Dayal and Raju Gopalakrishnan; editing by Raju Gopi Krishnan)
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Progress in US-Iran negotiations eases supply concerns, lowering oil prices
The oil prices dropped by about 1% after the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States progressed. This eased concerns that this dispute would reduce the supply of the Middle Eastern major producer. Brent crude futures fell 70 cents or 1.03% to $67.26 per barrel at 0030 GMT, after closing 3.2% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $64, down 68 cents or 1.05% after closing up 3.54% the previous session. Last week, Thursday was the final settlement day due to the Good Friday holiday. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the U.S. had agreed to start drafting a framework for any potential nuclear deal with Iran on Saturday, following talks described by a U.S. government official as "very positive progress." Progress in the nuclear talks follows the U.S. imposing further sanctions last week. These included sanctions against a teapot oil refinery based in China, which it claims processed Iranian crude. This increased pressure on Tehran during the discussions. Teapot is the industry term for smaller independent processors. Brent and WTI both gained about 5% in the last week due to concerns about the tightening of Iranian oil supplies and hopes for an agreement between the United States, and the European Union. This was their first weekly increase in three weeks. Separately, Russia, Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin blamed each for breaking the one-day ceasefire declared on Easter Sunday by the Russian president. Both sides accused the other of hundreds attacks, and the Kremlin said there was never an order to extend the ceasefire. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Interfax reports that the Russian economy ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%.
Interfax reported on Monday morning that the Russian economy ministry had reduced its forecast of the average price for Brent crude in 2025 from the amount it thought the price would be in September by almost 17%. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the average price of Brent is expected to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in the September forecasts. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price of Urals, Russia’s main blend, is $56 per barrel, compared to the $69.7 per barrelle on which Russia based its budget for 2025. The agency quoted a ministry representative as saying, "We think that this is an estimate which is fairly conservative." Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be slightly stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94,3 roubles for every dollar, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5.
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Severe weather strikes the Midwest and South of the US, killing two people in Oklahoma
Police said that at least two people including a child died after their vehicle became stranded on flood waters in Oklahoma, during the Easter weekend, when severe weather and flooding affected parts of the U.S. South, Midwest and Midwest. In a press release, police in Moore (Oklahoma), about 11 miles south-southeast of Oklahoma City, stated that the weather was "historic". "One (of the vehicles) was swept underneath the bridge. All but two of the occupants were saved at the time. "It is with deep sadness that we announce that two people, an adult male and a 12-year old boy, were found dead later," the statement said. The police in Moore, Oklahoma have urged residents to stay home. They responded late Saturday to more than a dozen calls by residents who were stuck in their vehicles because of high water. Oklahoma was covered by flood warnings that indicate a flood may be imminent or has already occurred. National Weather Service stated on Sunday that severe thunderstorms are expected to occur from east Texas through far southeast Iowa, Illinois and into central Arkansas. A strong tornado with damaging winds is also possible from central Arkansas and central Missouri. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for certain parts of Arkansas and Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Oklahoma. A deadly spring storm that swept across the U.S. from Texas to Ohio caused tornadoes, heavy rains, and even a few deaths in the South and Midwest. (Reporting and editing by Mary Milliken, Chris Reese and Kanishka Singh from Washington)
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Russia-Ukraine War: US welcomes extension of ceasefire
The U.S. State Department announced on Sunday that it would be happy to see the one-day ceasefire declared by Russian president Vladimir Putin for Easter extended beyond Sunday, despite the Kremlin's earlier statement that there had been no extension order. Both Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Putin declared a ceasefire for one day in Ukraine, until Sunday midnight Moscow time (2100 GMT). KEY QUOTES "We've seen that President Putin announced a temporary truce due to Easter. In an email statement sent on Sunday, a spokesperson for the State Department said that they remain committed to achieving full and comprehensive peace. As we evaluate their seriousness, we welcome the extension of this punishment beyond Sunday. Why it's important U.S. president Donald Trump Has repeatedly warned about the risk of escalation in the three-year old war that was started by Russia's full scale invasion of its neighbor, and has said he wants the war to end. The U.S. secretary of state has said that the war should be ended. Marco Rubio Washington said that it will abandon efforts to broker a deal for peace if there are no clear signs of progress in the near future. Trump announced that he would sign a mineral deal with Kyiv within a week after the U.S.A. and Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Thursday. A failed attempt in February was the result of Zelenskiy and Trump's clash in the Oval Office. CONTEXT Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said that Russia pretended to respect the Easter ceasefire but in reality, it had continued hundreds of artillery assaults Saturday night and more on Sunday. Russia's Defence Ministry claimed that Ukraine violated the ceasefire and caused damage to civilians and infrastructure. Putin wants Ukraine to give up its NATO ambitions and permanently cede the four lost regions to Russia. He also wants to limit its army size. Kyiv claims that these demands amount to a demand for its capitulation.
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Congo suspends the former President Kabila's Political Party
The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended the political party of former President Joseph Kabila and ordered the seizure of his assets over allegations that he supported rebels in eastern Congo backed by Rwanda. The 53-year old, who ruled the country from 2001 to 2019 and only stepped aside after violent protests against him, said that he wanted to return to Congo in order to find a resolution to the conflict. In a statement issued late Saturday, the interior ministry stated that his party had been suspended for assisting the M23 rebels. The justice ministry also said assets of his and other leaders would be confiscated after acts deemed high treason. In both statements, prosecutors were instructed to begin proceedings against him. However, no specific accusations were made. Kabila did not respond immediately. In a letter to the editor, Ferdinand Kambere (secretary of his Party for Reconstruction and Democracy) called the suspension of its members a flagrant breach of Congo's Constitution and Laws. Since the beginning of this year, the M23 has taken control of two major cities located in the mineral rich east. The conflict in this region dates back to the Rwandan genocide of 1994 and the struggle over minerals. Kabila took power in the aftermath of his father's death and refused to leave when his term ended in 2016. Since then, he has lived in several African countries. (Writing Jessica Donati Editing Sofia Christensen, Andrew Cawthorne and Andrew Cawthorne).
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Shenghe, a Chinese rare earths processor, sees a minimal impact of the US feedstock ban
Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company, said that the suspension of shipments from its U.S. partners of rare earth raw concentrator will not have a significant impact on production because of the company's diverse supply chain. MP Materials, the owner of the U.S.'s only rare earths mine said that it has stopped shipping these vital minerals to China due to the 125% tariffs Beijing imposed on U.S. imports as a retaliation against U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by President Donald Trump. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals which are used in the production of magnets for electric cars, mobile phones and other electronic devices. China, the dominant producer in the world, halted this month exports of rare earths that were added to an export control list as a form of retaliation. MP Materials, which is a major player in the rare earths industry, imports large quantities of concentrate from other countries to feed its processing plants. Shenghe stated in a press release that "we have created a diversified channel of supply for rare earth raw materials. We use monazite as an alternative to Sichuan, and we also supply other countries." "The supply agreement with MP remains valid." Shenghe did not provide details. In January 2024, the company and MP Materials renewed a offtake agreement through Shenghe’s subsidiary in Singapore. The agreement will remain in place for two years but can be extended by another year. Customs data show that China's imports from the U.S. of rare earth raw material have declined for the past two years. They fell by 13.7% last year and 16.9% in 2023.
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VEB, a Russian copper mining company, will invest $13.4 billion in the country's Far East
The Russian government announced on Saturday that the state-owned development bank VEB would invest over 1.1 trillion Russian roubles (about $13.40 billion) in order to develop a mine of copper in Chukotka, in the extreme east of the nation. A government press release stated that the development of Baimskaya, which was discovered in 1972, will create 6,000 jobs, and generate tax revenues in excess of three trillion roubles. Chukotka, the easternmost federal subject in Russia, is a mountainous area. Around half of the region is above the Arctic Circle. Once operational, the deposit will increase Russia's gold production by 4% and copper production by 25%. "We continue to build not just a mining and processing plant, but a powerful and technologically-advanced industrial complex that will strengthen Russia's position in the global market and become a new point of growth in the Arctic," said Georgy Fotin, general director of the Baimskaya Management Company LLC. Vladimir Putin named the Arctic region as one of Russia’s most important economic interests. He has also increased commerce through the Northern Sea Route, as Moscow has shifted trade away from Europe and towards Asia due to Western sanctions. The government announced on Saturday that the development of the Baimskaya deposit would increase the annual cargo traffic along NSR by two million metric tonnes. $1 = 82.1000 Russian Roubles (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Lucy Papachristou)
China's rising hydro and solar set to cap coal usage in 2024: Kemp
China's electrical energy usage increased by 209 billion kilowatthours, or 10%, in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, when the country was emerging from the exit wave of the coronavirus.
Consumption development was focused in production (+112. billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after. widespread disturbances caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.
However there was also substantial development from services companies. ( +53 billion kWh), domestic users (+41 billion kWh) and. main markets such as farming and mining (+3 billion. kWh), according to the National Energy Administration.
Chartbook: China electrical energy generation
Generation from large-scaled grid-connected power plants. increased by 166 billion kWh (+8%) in the first 3 months of. 2024, according to separate data published by the National. Bureau of Stats.
Most of the extra generation was provided by thermal power. plants (+108 billion kWh) mainly fired by coal with a small. percentage burning gas.
There were smaller contributions from wind farms (+34. billion kWh), grid-connected solar generators (+17 billion kWh). and hydroelectric generators (+7 billion kWh).
Thermal generation increased 7% from the previous year to a. seasonal record of 1,603 billion kWh and accounted for 72% of. all grid-connected output.
By contrast, hydro generation increased by just 3% to 210. billion kWh and was well listed below the seasonal record of 221. billion kWh set in the very first quarter of 2022.
Hydro has actually been depressed by the relentless drought throughout. southern China that began in 2022 and lasted through 2023.
But southern areas have been struck by abnormally early and. heavy rains considering that early in April which must recharge water. resources and increase hydro output from May onwards.
SPRING RAINS
China's rainfall and hydro generation are concentrated in. the southern part of the nation, where spring rains are. followed by heavier precipitation during the damp phase of the. East Asian Monsoon from June to September.
South China represents 36% of the nation's acreage but. 81% of its total water resources, according to data assembled by. the central federal government's Ministry of Water Resources.
Four massive drain basins in the south (covering the. Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast Rivers and Southwest. Rivers) represent more than 80% of the country's hydro. generation.
South China experienced abnormally low rains during the. wet stage of the East Asian Monsoon in 2022 and precipitation. remained second-rate throughout 2023, curtailing river levels. and generation.
In 2024, nevertheless, the spring rains arrived abnormally early. and have actually been heavy, reaching records in some locations, which. should improve hydro generation.
Guangdong province experienced its very first significant flood this. year on April 7, the earliest given that at least 1998, according to. the water ministry.
Rainfall up until now in April in the city of Yibin at the. confluence of the Minutes and Yangtze rivers, and on the border. between Sichuan and Yunnan, the two enormous hydro manufacturers in. the southwest, has actually been the greatest since 2022 and, before that,. 2016.
Like rains, hydro generation follows a pronounced. seasonal pattern - most affordable in the very first quarter before rising. dramatically in the second and third quarters with the spring and. monsoon rains, then tapering in the fourth quarter.
Relatively heavy spring rains should bring a huge boost in. hydro generation during the 2nd quarter this year, which will. continue throughout the 3rd quarter if the monsoon goes back to. typical.
COAL RELIEF
China relied heavily on coal-fired generators during the. winter season of 2023/2024, running existing generators for more hours. and starting up a number of brand-new power plants to meet electrical power. demand.
But record amounts of solar generation were set up in. 2023 and the huge deployment has actually continued in the first three. months of 2024. Solar generation capacity has actually doubled since 2021. and quadrupled considering that 2018.
The mix of quick development in solar with a post-drought. healing in hydro generation need to limit the need for a lot. coal combustion in the second and 3rd quarters of 2024.
Provided the monsoon rains are near-normal, coal-fired. generation will grow more gradually over the rest of the year.
China's underlying growth in electricity usage is so. substantial the federal government has no option however to pursue an. all-of-the-above strategy embracing a mix of coal and. renewables.
The scale of the usage growth means that coal-fired. generation could continue to rise in 2024 and for a few more. years.
But the massive release of renewables is already flexing. the coal consumption curve lower and emissions are likely to. peak before completion of the decade in line with the federal government's. revealed target.
Associated columns:
- China's hydro generators await the rains to come (March. 24, 2024)
- China's renewables rollout signals future peak in coal. ( January 19, 2024)
- China braces for record winter season electrical power need. ( November 24, 2023)
- China's rainfall is in the wrong place for hydropower. ( August 22, 2023)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)