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Tiny Tuvalu wants assurances from the US that its citizens will not be barred
Tuvalu, the tiny Pacific nation scientists predict will be submerged in rising seas, has said that it wants written assurances from the United States to ensure that its citizens won't be barred entry. It was apparently included by mistake on a list of countries that face visa bans. Other media reported that Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary for State, had signed an internal diplomatic cable in which he indicated the United States was considering expanding its travel restrictions, including to three Pacific Island countries, to 36 countries. The cable stated that nations on the list had 60 days to correct their mistakes. The news caused concern in Tuvalu. Its population of 11,000 people is at risk of rising sea levels. A third of its residents applied for an Australian ballot to obtain a climate migration visa. Tapugao Falefou said that a U.S. government official had told him Tuvalu was included on the list due to "an administrative error and a systemic mistake on the U.S. Department of State's part". Tuvalu's Government said in a Tuesday statement that they had not been notified formally of their inclusion on the list. The United States Embassy in Fiji also assured them it was an "error within the system". The statement by Tuvalu's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Labour and Trade stated that "the Embassy has verbally assured that there are currently no restrictions on Tuvaluan citizens entering the United States, and the matter is under review with the authorities in Washington." Tuvalu is seeking "a formal written confirmation of that effect" and has continued to engage with the U.S. government to ensure Tuvaluans do not suffer unfairly. The embassy didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. The official who was not authorized to publicly speak about the visa policy in the United States said that "no decisions had been made and any speculation would be premature". The official said that "Tuvalu’s public statement mischaracterizes, and omits many of the valid concerns United States have with travelers from this country." Vanuatu, Tonga and Vanuatu are the other Pacific Islands mentioned in the cable. Tonga’s government received an official U.S. alert and was working to develop a response. Vanuatu government has not responded to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Saad sayeed in Sydney, Kirsty needham from Sydney)
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Asian shares are rising, dollar weakens as US bill debate continues; gold is on the rise
The dollar remained near its multi-year lows as Asian shares rose and markets awaited the vote on President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill. On Monday, global shares rose to an intraday high on the back of trade optimism. However, a marathon Senate debate over a bill that would add up to $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States weighed down sentiment. The Nikkei index of Japanese shares fell as much as 1,1%, as the yen rose. Gold and oil both advanced for the second session in a row. The vote on Trump's tax-cutting and spending bill was expected to take place during Tuesday's Asian trading session, but the debate continued over a series of amendments from Republicans and minority Democrats. Trump wants to see the bill pass before the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Investors are also looking forward to Thursday's key U.S. employment data as global trade negotiators rush to reach agreements before Trump's deadlines. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. In a podcast, he said that the payroll data released later in the week would "have a significant impact, I believe, on the sentiment regarding the timing of Fed rate reductions." South Korea's Kospi index, which measures the performance of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, rose 1.8%, leading MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index. The dollar fell 0.3% to 143.62 Japanese yen. The dollar dropped 0.1% to $1.1794 versus the euro single currency. It had earlier fallen as low as $1.1798. U.S. crude fell 0.4% to $64.86 a barrel, weighed down by expectations that OPEC+ would increase its output in August. Gold spot rose 0.5%, to $3319.55 an ounce. The German DAX Futures rose 0.2%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 futures in Europe were up by 0.1%.
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Investors watch US trade talks as copper prices rise on a weaker dollar
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday, despite the weaker dollar. Meanwhile, uncertainty remained over U.S.-China trade. By 0103 GMT the LME's three-month contract for copper rose 0.15%, to $9,883.5 a metric ton, while the SHFE's most traded copper contract increased 0.1%, to 79840 yuan (11,145.23). The worries about the U.S. deficit have weakened the dollar (which) is supportive of commodities. My focus this week will be the U.S. Trade talks," said an analyst in Beijing from a futures firm. The dollar index fell by 0.35% on Monday to 96.86, putting it on course for a sixth consecutive month of losses and its worst half year since the 1970s. The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies. Last week, U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said that the U.S.-China had resolved the issues surrounding shipments of Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals to the U.S. This further modified a May agreement in Geneva. Bessent added that even if countries are negotiating with good faith on July 9, they could still be facing sharply higher tariffs. Any possible extensions would be at the discretion of Trump. LME nickel dropped 0.33% to $16,165 per ton. Zinc eased by 0.31% to $2.743 and lead fell by 0.12% to $2.042. SHFE Nickel fell by 0.65%, to 120,180 Yuan. Zinc fell 0.51%, to 22,320 Yuan. Tin dropped 0.27%, to 267410 Yuan. Lead fell by 0.15%, to 17,120 Yan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 0600 UK National House Price mm,yy June 0750 France S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0800 EU Final HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0830 UK S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 0900 EU Flash HICP F, E A, T YY,MM. June 1345 US S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI. June 1440 US ISM Manufacturing Final PMI.
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The price of oil drops on the back of OPEC+ and tariff fears
The oil prices fell on Tuesday due to expectations that OPEC+ will increase their output in August, and fears of a slowdown in the economy caused by higher U.S. Tariffs. Brent crude futures were down 16 cents or 0.24% to $66.58 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents or 0.31% to $64.91 per barrel. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a recent note that "the market is concerned the OPEC+ will continue to increase its output at an accelerated pace." Four OPEC+ source told us last week that they plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in August. This follows similar increases in May, July, and June. If approved, OPEC+ would increase its total oil supply for the year by 1.78 million bpd. This is equivalent to over 1.5% of the global demand. OPEC and allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+ will meet on the 6th of July. Oil prices were also held back by uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and their impact upon global growth. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharply increased tariff despite good faith negotiations, as the deadline of July 9 approaches. This is when tariff rates will revert to President Donald Trump’s temporarily suspended rates of 11 to 50 percent announced in April. Morgan Stanley believes Brent futures will retrace back to $60 around early next year. The market is well-supplied and the geopolitical risks have abated following the de-escalation between Israel and Iran. It anticipates a surplus of 1.3m bpd by 2026. Brent prices rose after a 12-day conflict that began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iran's nuclear installations. After the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear sites, Brent prices soared over $80 per barrel. They then dropped to $67 a bar after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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G7 calls for talks to resume on Iran Nuclear Program
According to a statement released jointly, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations stated that they support the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. They also urged the resumption of negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran. Iran and the U.S. began holding talks in April to find a diplomatic solution for Iran's nuclear programme. Tehran claims its nuclear program is peaceful, while Israel and its allies claim they want to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. The G7 Foreign Ministers stated: "We call for a resumption in negotiations that will result in a comprehensive agreement, which is verifiable, and durable, that addresses Iran's nuclear program." Trump announced last week a ceasefire in the war between U.S. allies Israel and Iran, its regional rival. The conflict began on June 13, when Israel attacked Iran. The Israel-Iran war had caused alarm in a region that has been on edge ever since Israel's Gaza War in October 2023. Washington had struck Iran's nuclear facilities before the ceasefire announcement. In retaliation, Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar. The G7 Foreign Ministers said that they had urged "all sides to avoid any actions which could destabilize further the region." Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Middle East envoy, said that talks between Washington and Tehran are "promising", and Washington is hopeful of a long-term deal. G7 diplomats condemned threats made against the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog chief on Monday after a hardline Iranian paper said IAEA head Rafael Grossi was to be tried and executed for being an Israeli agent. The U.N. Nuclear Watchdog's Board of Governors, which consists of 35 nations, declared Iran to be in violation of its nonproliferation obligations on June 12. This was the first time that Iran had been in violation of these obligations in nearly 20 years. Israel, the only Middle Eastern nation believed to possess nuclear weapons, has declared that its war against Iran is to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The U.N. nuclear monitor, who conducts inspections in Iran says that it has "no evidence" of a coordinated and active weapons program.
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Panama removes a portion of the copper stockpiled at First Quantum mine
Panamanian officials announced on Monday that more than a quarter (25%) of the copper concentrator stockpiled by First Quantum Minerals at its Cobre Panama mine, since the mine closed in 2023, has been shipped out. The removal of 33, 000 metric tons of copper out of a total 120,000 tons at the site seems to have ended the uncertainty about the stuck-on copper and may signal a possible thawing in the relationship between President Jose Raul Mulino’s government and the Canadian company. First Quantum has declined to comment. The mine was closed by the previous administration of Panama after public protests about environmental concerns. Panama's Trade and Industry Ministry said that the copper stockpile would be removed gradually, but did not provide a date or any further information about the shipment. "More 33,000 tons of concentrate have been shipped." The ministry stated that the removal of the concentrate will be gradual, depending on weather, technical and logistical factors, and other factors. The ministry said that it, as well as Panama's maritime authorities, customs, and environmental authorities were overseeing the process. First Quantum announced in March that it had agreed to end the arbitration process over the mine. This allowed for the government to resume talks with First Quantum. Reporting by Elida Moreno in Panama City, and Divya Raagapal in Toronto. Editing by Daina Beth Solow, Kylie Madry, and Sonali Paul.
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Businesses call on EU to not weaken sustainability standards
Over 100 investors and companies warned on Tuesday against rolling back European Sustainability Rules that they say support economic growth. The EU is negotiating cuts to these rules in order to reduce costs to local industries. In a joint statement, a group of 29 companies and 80 investors, including EDF and Nokia, and financial institutions, such as Allianz, said that the rules, rather than hindering economic growth, were "conducive" to growth and competitiveness, and also long-term value and returns for investors. The European Union is negotiating proposals to ease corporate sustainability reporting requirements for the majority of businesses. They are also easing a requirement that firms check their supply chain for abuse. This comes amid criticisms from governments and industries who claim that excessive bureaucracy hinders productivity. Germany, France, and certain businesses have called for a dramatic reduction in the reporting requirements. But environmentalists and a larger group of companies and investment firms say that the rules will help them to manage climate risk and to drive capital into the green transition. The rules promote transparency and responsible conduct and are conducive to better risk management, growth and reorienting investments to green technologies. This statement was signed by Ingka Group, IKEA’s parent company. Carine de Bouissezon, EDF's chief impact officer, said that "where there is room for intelligent simplification, we should tweak the regulation. But, we must stay the course, and be proud to do so, to assert our leadership." The group suggested that EU reporting rules be applied to firms with more than 500 workers and that they adopt "transition plan" to show how they are aligned with climate goals. The European Commission has You can find out more about this by clicking here. Exempting companies that have fewer than 1,000 workers - this will cut more than 80% from the approximately 50,000 employees currently covered. Currently, the law applies to companies with more than 25 employees. Some EU legislators want to further scale back the laws to cover only companies with a minimum of 3,000 employees. The final rule changes must be approved by both EU member states and legislators. (Reporting and editing by Virginia Furness, Paul Simao).
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Trump's tax bill gives a break to coal used in steel production
The latest version of Donald Trump's proposed tax bill includes a reduction in the price of coal used to produce steel. This subsidy could amount to hundreds of millions over a period of 10 years, for a fuel which is mainly exported to China. In April, Trump issued executive orders directing Chris Wright, former CEO of fracking and energy secretary, to determine if metallurgical coal, or met coal, is a critical mineral. Wright did so in May. The latest version of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, released by the Senate over the weekend, allows met coal to claim a tax credit for advanced manufacturing production, which is available for critical minerals and would cover 2.5% of the cost of the fuel. Sonia Aggarwal of Energy Innovation, an non-profit organization, said that allowing met coal get credit was insane as it could hurt efforts to switch to fuels with less carbon intensity. Robbie Orvis is a director at Energy Innovation and estimates that the credit for met coal producers could be worth $300,000,000 over a ten-year period. He also said the subsidy might help China compete against U.S. made steel. If Trump decides to use emergency powers, he could increase production by giving met coal the "critical mineral" classification. This is usually reserved for minerals used in high-tech defence systems. Conor Bernstein is a spokesperson of the National Mining Association. He said that the bill promotes jobs in the United States, manufacturing, and the economy. "Providing incentives to encourage steel-making coal is a way to achieve each of these objectives." The Metallurgical Coal Producers Association of West Virginia has not responded to our requests for comment on how the tax credit will benefit producers. West Virginia, a top U.S. mining state, has experienced several layoffs of met coal workers in the last few months. Ben Beakes of the West Virginia Met coal Association blamed layoffs in local media on inflation. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Choy)
China's rising hydro and solar set to cap coal usage in 2024: Kemp
China's electrical energy usage increased by 209 billion kilowatthours, or 10%, in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, when the country was emerging from the exit wave of the coronavirus.
Consumption development was focused in production (+112. billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after. widespread disturbances caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.
However there was also substantial development from services companies. ( +53 billion kWh), domestic users (+41 billion kWh) and. main markets such as farming and mining (+3 billion. kWh), according to the National Energy Administration.
Chartbook: China electrical energy generation
Generation from large-scaled grid-connected power plants. increased by 166 billion kWh (+8%) in the first 3 months of. 2024, according to separate data published by the National. Bureau of Stats.
Most of the extra generation was provided by thermal power. plants (+108 billion kWh) mainly fired by coal with a small. percentage burning gas.
There were smaller contributions from wind farms (+34. billion kWh), grid-connected solar generators (+17 billion kWh). and hydroelectric generators (+7 billion kWh).
Thermal generation increased 7% from the previous year to a. seasonal record of 1,603 billion kWh and accounted for 72% of. all grid-connected output.
By contrast, hydro generation increased by just 3% to 210. billion kWh and was well listed below the seasonal record of 221. billion kWh set in the very first quarter of 2022.
Hydro has actually been depressed by the relentless drought throughout. southern China that began in 2022 and lasted through 2023.
But southern areas have been struck by abnormally early and. heavy rains considering that early in April which must recharge water. resources and increase hydro output from May onwards.
SPRING RAINS
China's rainfall and hydro generation are concentrated in. the southern part of the nation, where spring rains are. followed by heavier precipitation during the damp phase of the. East Asian Monsoon from June to September.
South China represents 36% of the nation's acreage but. 81% of its total water resources, according to data assembled by. the central federal government's Ministry of Water Resources.
Four massive drain basins in the south (covering the. Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast Rivers and Southwest. Rivers) represent more than 80% of the country's hydro. generation.
South China experienced abnormally low rains during the. wet stage of the East Asian Monsoon in 2022 and precipitation. remained second-rate throughout 2023, curtailing river levels. and generation.
In 2024, nevertheless, the spring rains arrived abnormally early. and have actually been heavy, reaching records in some locations, which. should improve hydro generation.
Guangdong province experienced its very first significant flood this. year on April 7, the earliest given that at least 1998, according to. the water ministry.
Rainfall up until now in April in the city of Yibin at the. confluence of the Minutes and Yangtze rivers, and on the border. between Sichuan and Yunnan, the two enormous hydro manufacturers in. the southwest, has actually been the greatest since 2022 and, before that,. 2016.
Like rains, hydro generation follows a pronounced. seasonal pattern - most affordable in the very first quarter before rising. dramatically in the second and third quarters with the spring and. monsoon rains, then tapering in the fourth quarter.
Relatively heavy spring rains should bring a huge boost in. hydro generation during the 2nd quarter this year, which will. continue throughout the 3rd quarter if the monsoon goes back to. typical.
COAL RELIEF
China relied heavily on coal-fired generators during the. winter season of 2023/2024, running existing generators for more hours. and starting up a number of brand-new power plants to meet electrical power. demand.
But record amounts of solar generation were set up in. 2023 and the huge deployment has actually continued in the first three. months of 2024. Solar generation capacity has actually doubled since 2021. and quadrupled considering that 2018.
The mix of quick development in solar with a post-drought. healing in hydro generation need to limit the need for a lot. coal combustion in the second and 3rd quarters of 2024.
Provided the monsoon rains are near-normal, coal-fired. generation will grow more gradually over the rest of the year.
China's underlying growth in electricity usage is so. substantial the federal government has no option however to pursue an. all-of-the-above strategy embracing a mix of coal and. renewables.
The scale of the usage growth means that coal-fired. generation could continue to rise in 2024 and for a few more. years.
But the massive release of renewables is already flexing. the coal consumption curve lower and emissions are likely to. peak before completion of the decade in line with the federal government's. revealed target.
Associated columns:
- China's hydro generators await the rains to come (March. 24, 2024)
- China's renewables rollout signals future peak in coal. ( January 19, 2024)
- China braces for record winter season electrical power need. ( November 24, 2023)
- China's rainfall is in the wrong place for hydropower. ( August 22, 2023)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)