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Shanghai copper hovers just below the record high, as Chinese demand increases and dollar weakens
Shanghai copper was below its record high Thursday, as the Chinese demand increased and the U.S. dollar weakened. dollar weakened. As of 0330 GMT, the most active copper contract on?the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.40%, to 95,640 Yuan ($13.651.55) per metric ton. Shanghai copper reached an all-time record of 96.750 yuan?a ton, and the London benchmark?also hit a high at $12.282, which is near the $12.300 mark. The London market is closed over the Christmas Holiday. The rise in copper was due to a rise in Chinese demand as we approach the holiday season. Yangshan Copper Premium The price of, which measures Chinese demand for seaborne units of copper, has been rising since the beginning of December. It is now at its highest level since late September, $55 per ton. Investors bet on further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2013, leading to continued weakness of the?U.S. dollar. dollar. Aluminium and lead were the only two metals that changed little in SHFE. Zinc?dropped by 0.75%. Nickel's six-day rally ended with a decline of 1.79%. Tin lost 1.48%. (1 Chinese Yuan = 7.0058 Renminbi)
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Dalian iron ore continues to benefit Beijing's home buyers
The prices of Dalian Iron Ore Futures rose for the second consecutive session on Thursday, as further relaxations in Beijing on home purchases boosted sentiment. As of 0251 GMT, the most-traded contract for iron ore on?China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE) increased 0.26% to $776 yuan (US$110.76) per metric ton. Singapore's market will be closed on Christmas Day, Thursday. Beijing's municipal officials further relaxed curbs on home purchase on Wednesday by lowering the threshold of home-buying qualification, in their latest effort to boost demand amid worsening prices for homes in the Chinese capital. This came after Chinese officials?promised earlier this week to increase efforts to stabilize the property market by 2026. Participants in the market were watching to see if other large cities would ease home buying even further. Since mid-2021, China's property sector has suffered a steady decline, with falling home prices and shrinking sales. The protracted downturn in the property market has had a negative impact on steel consumption. However, robust exports and a growing demand for manufacturing products have helped offset some of the decline. Analysts said that the expectation of steel mills booking more seaborne cargoes in order to meet their consumption needs over the Lunar New Year holiday, which is February, also supported the price of the main?steel making ingredient. The price increase was tempered by a?high iron ore stockpile at the port and a seasonally low steel demand. The coking coal, as well as other ingredients used in steelmaking, remained largely unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a rise in the majority of steel benchmarks. Rebar gained 0.26%; hot-rolled coil gained 0.24%; wire rod increased 0.66% and stainless steel fell 0.58%. $1 = 7,0060 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Ryan Woo)
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Sources say that China's first batch fuel export quotas for 2026 are stable year-on-year.
Three sources familiar with this matter late Wednesday said that China issued 19 million tonnes of export quotas, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, in the first batch for 2026. In this batch of export quotas, the world's second largest consumer of oil gave out?8 millions tons of low sulphur marine fuel. Both volumes were stable compared to a year ago. China's refined fuel exports are managed by a quota-based system that balances the fundamentals of supply and demand in its domestic market. The main recipients of the quotas were the state-owned oil companies Sinopec and CNPC. They received 13.76 millions tons of allowances for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel exports – more than 70% of the total volume. Zhejiang Petrochemical, a major private refiner, was allocated 1.56 million tonnes?of export quotas in this first batch. Almost 85% of the 8 million tons of low-sulphur fuel allowed for marine use went to Sinopec and CNPC. China's oil refinery exports, including aviation fuel, marine bunker fuel, and diesel fuel, totaled 52.65 millions tons in the first 11 months 2025. This is a 3.2% decrease from last year.
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Odesa Zoo saves birds after Russian attacks
Volunteers lift a dead bird from the wind-swept beach of 'Odesa. The Black Sea port town where an oil spill, blamed by Ukrainian officials on Russian attacks, has left wildlife fighting for survival. Odesa is a Russian target, and has been since the Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 20, 2022. However, the attacks are more intense now. Wildlife is also among the victims. Russia hasn't commented on the spill but previously denied targeting civilian infrastructure. Odesa Zoo is determined to save birds that survive after being coated with oil. Birds can no longer move due to their feathers becoming coated. "They can't fly or swim," said zoo director Ihor Bilyakov outside a rescue point to rehabilitate the birds. They lose their mobility and freeze quickly because it is cold now. The spill, which was caused by Russian air strikes that damaged storage tanks of sunflower oil in Pivdennyi Port last week, killed dozens of birds. Regional governor Oleh Kiper blamed the incident on Russian attacks. The birds screech indignantly when volunteers clean them of oil from their bill to toe. Biliakov said that the two most elegant species, the great crested and horned Grebes, were the worst affected. He said that the great crested Grebe is a waterfowl species that is particularly vulnerable to contamination by oil. The port administration reported that emergency crews deployed floating barriers and specialised vessels to contain spillage, and temporarily closed the channel. The oil will degrade organically, according to authorities. However, monitoring and cleanup efforts are ongoing in order to prevent any further spread. Reporting by Iryna Nazaarchuk, writing by Ron Popeski and editing by Howard Goller
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US regulator extends the driving time limit waiver to heating fuel haulers
To speed up deliveries, the U.S. Transport Safety Regulator has extended an 'emergency waiver' on driving time limits for truckers transporting heating fuels. The extension was given on Tuesday because extreme cold and severe winter storms in Pennsylvania, as well as a major power outage at an important gas refinery, had 'disrupted' propane supplies and created immediate dangers to the public health, safety, and welfare of those states. U.S. regulations normally require truck drivers to take mandatory rest breaks and cap their daily?and weekday driving hours in order to reduce fatigue-related crashes. However, regulators may temporarily waive these limits to speed up deliveries of essential supplies during emergencies. The extension comes after an earlier emergency declaration by the U.S. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration that relaxed'mandated rest and drive-time limits for trucks transporting heating 'fuels like propane, natural gas and heating oil in parts of the U.S. Northeast until December 26. The FMCSA stated that the affected states and jurisdictions include Connecticut, Delaware Maryland, Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania West Virginia. (Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
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After record rally, gold, silver and platinum are taking a break
Gold prices fell on Wednesday after a record-breaking surge that saw them surpass the $4,500 an ounce barrier earlier in the session. Silver and platinum also saw some of their gains trimmed. At 01:57 pm, spot gold was down by 0.2% to $4,479.38 an ounce. ET (18:57 GMT), following a session high of $4,525.18. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery settled 0.1% lower at $4,502.8. Jim Wyckoff, Kitco Metals' senior analyst, said that the gold market was experiencing some chart consolidation as well as a mild profit-taking following record highs. Gold is a good investment in low interest rate environments. It also thrives when there are periods of uncertainty. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Tuesday that he would like to see the next Federal Reserve Chair?lower interest rates in a good market. The U.S. central bank has reduced rates 'three times' this year, and traders currently price in two rate reductions next year. A U.S. official said that the U.S. Coast Guard was waiting for more forces to arrive on the geopolitical scene before it could attempt to board and capture a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, which they have been pursuing since last Sunday. Silver reached a new high of $72.70, and lastly rose 0.7% to $71.94 per ounce. The next target is for the gold market to reach $4,600/oz and for silver, $75/oz before the end of this year. Wyckoff added that the technicals are bullish. Silver prices are up 149% on a year-to date basis, despite strong fundamentals. This is more than bullion which has gained over 70% in the same time period. Platinum?peaking at $2.377.50, before paring its gains to stand at $2.220.44. Palladium fell by more than 9% to $1,683.58 per ounce after reaching its highest level in three years. The price of platinum and palladium, which are used primarily in automotive catalytic convertors to reduce emissions and cut down on pollution, has risen by 145% and over 85% respectively year-to date, due to tight mine supplies, tariff uncertainty and a shift away from gold investment.
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After record rally, gold, silver and platinum are taking a break
Gold prices fell on Wednesday after breaking through the $4,500 per ounce barrier earlier in the session. Silver and platinum also saw some losses following their record-breaking rally. At 11:52 am, spot gold was down by 0.3% to $4,473.49 an ounce. After hitting a high of $4,525.18, the ET session ended at 16:52 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell by 0.1% to $4,500.30. Jim Wyckoff, Kitco Metals' senior analyst, says that the gold market has seen some chart consolidation as well as a mild profit-taking following record highs. Gold is a good investment in low interest rate environments. It also thrives when there are periods of uncertainty. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Tuesday that he would like to see the next Federal Reserve Chair?lower interest rates in a good market. The U.S. Central?bank cut rates 'three times' this year, and traders currently price in two rate cuts for next year. A U.S. official said that the U.S. Coast Guard was waiting for more forces to arrive on the geopolitical scene before it could attempt to board and capture a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, which they have been pursuing since last Sunday. Silver reached a new high of $72.70, and lastly rose 0.1% to $71.5 per ounce. The next target is for the gold market to reach $4,600/oz and for silver, $75/oz before the end of this year. Wyckoff added that the technicals are bullish. Silver prices are up 148% on a year-to date basis, despite strong fundamentals. This is more than bullion which has gained over 70%. Platinum peaked at $2.377.50, before reversing its gains and standing 4% lower at $ 2,186.16. Palladium is down by more than 10% to $1,675.43 per ounce after reaching its peak three years ago. The price of platinum and palladium, which are used primarily in automotive catalytic convertors to reduce emissions and cut down on pollution, has risen by 143% and over 85% respectively year-to date, due to tight mine supplies, tariff uncertainty and a shift away from gold investment.
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After record rally, gold, silver and platinum are taking a break
Gold prices fell on Wednesday as they took a breather after soaring past the $4,500 an ounce mark in the earlier part of?the day, while silver and platinum pared some gains from their record-breaking rally. At 10:04 am, spot gold was down by 0.4% to $4,468.96 an ounce. The session began with a high of $4,525.18. This was followed by a low of $4,425.18 at 1504 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell by 0.2% to $4,497.90. Jim Wyckoff, Kitco Metals' senior analyst, said that the gold market was experiencing some chart consolidation as well as a mild profit-taking following record highs. Gold is more likely to thrive in periods of uncertainty and low interest rates. U.S. president Donald Trump said Tuesday that he would like the next Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates in a good market. The?U.S. The?U.S. central bank has reduced?rates a total of three times in the past year. Currently, traders are pricing in two rate reductions next year. A U.S. official said that the U.S. Coast Guard was waiting for more forces to arrive on the geopolitical scene before it could attempt to board and capture a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, which they have been pursuing since last Sunday. Silver reached a record high of $72,70, but fell last 0.8% to $70.86 per ounce. The next upside target is $4,600/oz for gold and $75/oz for silver by the end the year. Wyckoff said that the 'technicals' remain bullish. Silver prices are up 147% on a year-to date basis, outpacing the bullion price increase of 70% during that same period. Platinum reached a high of $2,377.50, before reversing its gains to stand at $2.198.30, down 3.3%. Palladium fell 9% to $1,692.43 per ounce after reaching its peak three years ago. The price of platinum and palladium used primarily in automotive catalytic convertors to reduce emissions is up 160% and 100% respectively year-to date, due to tight mine supplies, tariff uncertainty and a shift away from gold investment.
China's rising hydro and solar set to cap coal usage in 2024: Kemp
China's electrical energy usage increased by 209 billion kilowatthours, or 10%, in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, when the country was emerging from the exit wave of the coronavirus.
Consumption development was focused in production (+112. billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after. widespread disturbances caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.
However there was also substantial development from services companies. ( +53 billion kWh), domestic users (+41 billion kWh) and. main markets such as farming and mining (+3 billion. kWh), according to the National Energy Administration.
Chartbook: China electrical energy generation
Generation from large-scaled grid-connected power plants. increased by 166 billion kWh (+8%) in the first 3 months of. 2024, according to separate data published by the National. Bureau of Stats.
Most of the extra generation was provided by thermal power. plants (+108 billion kWh) mainly fired by coal with a small. percentage burning gas.
There were smaller contributions from wind farms (+34. billion kWh), grid-connected solar generators (+17 billion kWh). and hydroelectric generators (+7 billion kWh).
Thermal generation increased 7% from the previous year to a. seasonal record of 1,603 billion kWh and accounted for 72% of. all grid-connected output.
By contrast, hydro generation increased by just 3% to 210. billion kWh and was well listed below the seasonal record of 221. billion kWh set in the very first quarter of 2022.
Hydro has actually been depressed by the relentless drought throughout. southern China that began in 2022 and lasted through 2023.
But southern areas have been struck by abnormally early and. heavy rains considering that early in April which must recharge water. resources and increase hydro output from May onwards.
SPRING RAINS
China's rainfall and hydro generation are concentrated in. the southern part of the nation, where spring rains are. followed by heavier precipitation during the damp phase of the. East Asian Monsoon from June to September.
South China represents 36% of the nation's acreage but. 81% of its total water resources, according to data assembled by. the central federal government's Ministry of Water Resources.
Four massive drain basins in the south (covering the. Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast Rivers and Southwest. Rivers) represent more than 80% of the country's hydro. generation.
South China experienced abnormally low rains during the. wet stage of the East Asian Monsoon in 2022 and precipitation. remained second-rate throughout 2023, curtailing river levels. and generation.
In 2024, nevertheless, the spring rains arrived abnormally early. and have actually been heavy, reaching records in some locations, which. should improve hydro generation.
Guangdong province experienced its very first significant flood this. year on April 7, the earliest given that at least 1998, according to. the water ministry.
Rainfall up until now in April in the city of Yibin at the. confluence of the Minutes and Yangtze rivers, and on the border. between Sichuan and Yunnan, the two enormous hydro manufacturers in. the southwest, has actually been the greatest since 2022 and, before that,. 2016.
Like rains, hydro generation follows a pronounced. seasonal pattern - most affordable in the very first quarter before rising. dramatically in the second and third quarters with the spring and. monsoon rains, then tapering in the fourth quarter.
Relatively heavy spring rains should bring a huge boost in. hydro generation during the 2nd quarter this year, which will. continue throughout the 3rd quarter if the monsoon goes back to. typical.
COAL RELIEF
China relied heavily on coal-fired generators during the. winter season of 2023/2024, running existing generators for more hours. and starting up a number of brand-new power plants to meet electrical power. demand.
But record amounts of solar generation were set up in. 2023 and the huge deployment has actually continued in the first three. months of 2024. Solar generation capacity has actually doubled since 2021. and quadrupled considering that 2018.
The mix of quick development in solar with a post-drought. healing in hydro generation need to limit the need for a lot. coal combustion in the second and 3rd quarters of 2024.
Provided the monsoon rains are near-normal, coal-fired. generation will grow more gradually over the rest of the year.
China's underlying growth in electricity usage is so. substantial the federal government has no option however to pursue an. all-of-the-above strategy embracing a mix of coal and. renewables.
The scale of the usage growth means that coal-fired. generation could continue to rise in 2024 and for a few more. years.
But the massive release of renewables is already flexing. the coal consumption curve lower and emissions are likely to. peak before completion of the decade in line with the federal government's. revealed target.
Associated columns:
- China's hydro generators await the rains to come (March. 24, 2024)
- China's renewables rollout signals future peak in coal. ( January 19, 2024)
- China braces for record winter season electrical power need. ( November 24, 2023)
- China's rainfall is in the wrong place for hydropower. ( August 22, 2023)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)