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As U.S. farm sales loom, heat and floods threaten China's crops

Since mid-July high temperatures and heavy rainfall have ravaged China's main?corn-, soybean- and cotton-growing areas, threatening crop yields and quality, which could increase?imports, including of cotton and feed grains, from the United States.

The White House announced that China has agreed to purchase $17 billion worth of U.S. agriculture goods each year, excluding soya beans, as part of a truce in the trade war.

Beijing, however, has not made 'the?large-scale purchases of non-soybeans expected after a May meeting between the leaders of both countries, while markets await news about tariff reductions.

Analysts and traders said that if weather damage reduced output or quality then China may increase its imports of corn sorghum, and cotton. This could bring U.S. supplies to the forefront.

In spite of a record harvest in the autumn of last year, adverse weather conditions damaged the crop quality, leading Chinese buyers to purchase more corn and substitute feed grains such as barley and sorghum.

Five analysts say that heatwaves and flooding have affected China's major corn and soybean areas in the north and northeast, causing corn losses and lower outputs of soybeans. However, higher corn acreage is expected to keep the national production stable.

Cotton yields in northwestern Xinjiang are expected to be affected by prolonged heat and scant rainfall. This region is responsible for more than 90% China's cotton production and also has become a major corn-growing area.

Between mid-July and late August, temperatures were equal to or higher than historical records at?50 stations. These stations are located primarily in Jilin, Liaoning and Xinjiang provinces, which are important producers of corn, soybeans and other grains.

State-run CCTV reported this week that Heilongjiang in China's northeast, the province with the largest production of corn and soybeans, had also been affected by heavy rains and flooding.

Henan Province, which is a major producer of summer corn and soybeans in the North China Plains, experienced extreme heat in late July. This was followed by heavy rains from Typhoon Dolphin's remnants in mid-August.

Liu Jinlu is an agricultural researcher with Guoyuan Futures. He said that prolonged heat could affect the pollination of corn in the North China Plain, and flooding can be a risk to fields located in the Northeast.

Darin Friedrichs of Sitonia Consulting said that while Typhoon Dolphin was likely to have a negative impact on the production in Henan it would still be less harmful than last year's heavy rains.

Liu and Friedrichs both agreed that a larger corn acreage would be able to offset the localised yield loss.

The China Agriculture Ministry forecasts that the area of corn in 2026/27 will be 45.13 millions hectares. This is an increase of 0.4% compared to a year ago.

The quality damage may still boost the demand for imported feed grain, possibly boosting U.S. purchases.

Friedrichs stated that the focus should be on corn and sorghum, which historically have been the highest dollar value exports to China other than soybeans.

China imported 1,36 million tons (61,3%) of corn between January and July. Sorghum and barley were imported at a rate of 86.2% and 53%, respectively.

China imported 2,98 million tons (almost four times) its 2025 full-year purchases of U.S. Sorghum.

SOYBEANS

Wang Wenshen is an analyst with Sublime China Information. He said that excessive rainfall in Heilongjiang had reduced soil temperatures and sunlight. This could have affected soybean quality and possibly?protein content.

The agriculture ministry predicts that soybean planting areas will fall by 0.6% to 10,19?million ha this year, as farmers switch to corn, which is more profitable.

Imports of GM soybeans will likely have a limited impact because non-GMO beans grown in the United States are mainly used as food while imported GM beans?are primarily crushed for animal feed.

COTTON

The agriculture ministry's August 12 outlook stated that the persistent heat and limited rain in?Xinjiang has reduced the average number cotton bolls for each plant?and increased the risk of yield loss in some drought-affected fields.

China imported 1,02 million tons in the first 7 months of 2026. This is almost equal to total imports for 2025.

The U.S. cotton imports accounted for 114,494, which is the same as China's total 2025 purchases. However, they only accounted for 13% of 2024.

(source: Reuters)