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IAEA board draws line under previous Syrian nuclear activities
Board of Governors of the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog, a 35-nation group of nations, passed a resolution Wednesday that drew a line under 'Syria’s secret nuclear activities' during the Assad regime. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demanded that Syria disclose its nuclear activities after?Israel bombed the site in eastern Deir al-Zor province in 2007. In 2011, the IAEA board reported that Syria had violated its obligations to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. This was then forwarded to the U.N. Security Council. The IAEA and Syria have pledged to cooperate after the 2024?overthrow Bashar al Assad. In a confidential report sent to member states last week, which was seen by, the IAEA stated that it had answered all of its questions regarding the issues initially reported to the board. The resolution passed on Tuesday said Syria no longer did not comply with its obligations. The resolution text submitted by Egypt, Jordan Morocco and Saudi Arabia stated that "(the board) welcomes transparency?and cooperation from the Syrian Arab Republic. It commends its actions taken to resolve its non-compliance." Diplomats said that the resolution was passed by consensus, which means no one objected. IAEA's report confirms that it is "very likely" that the bombed site contained a nuclear reactor and said the fuel was manufactured in Syria. IAEA discovered around 73 metric tons of natural uranium in Syria, mostly in the form of fuel rods. The IAEA is overseeing the material, and Syria says it will remain in Syria.
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GRAPHIC-Brent Oil Tops $100 As Middle East Conflict Intensifies, Stoking Supply Fears
The price of oil topped $100 per barrel for the first time in six weeks on Wednesday as an increase in fighting between U.S. forces and Iranian forces heightened concerns about supply coming from 'the -region. This also raised fears over inflationary pressures, and increased energy costs for businesses and consumers. Brent, the global benchmark for oil, has increased by 25 percent since early last week as hope fades of a permanent solution to the six-month old U.S./Iran conflict. This week, the rally intensified after Iran-backed Houthi attacked Saudi energy installations and set them ablaze. The increased risk of disruptions spreading across the Gulf region was heightened by the attacks. The break of oil above $100 indicates that global markets are becoming more vulnerable due to months of supply losses caused by disruptions in oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, and inventory reductions. Oil investors have expressed their views about the impact of this latest escalation of violence in the Middle East unambiguously, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. They are voting with their dollars, and this vote strongly suggests that until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil flows again unhindered, supply and demand will not align in the near future. Brent futures are still far from the $126 level that was reached earlier in the conflict. However, sustained prices above $100 per barrel would have a significant impact on the energy market, increasing transport and manufacturing costs and reigniting inflation concerns. OIL STOCKS are low Some key oil consumers have seen their oil stocks depleted after six months of reduced Middle East oil exports due to the conflict in Iran. The United States also has a?drawn heavily from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is now at its lowest level in 1982. After years of releases from former President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump to cushion consumers from high fuel costs, the reserve now contains 289.7 millions barrels. Trump's Republican Party faces a threat from persistently high gas prices over $4.00 per gallon. The party will be fighting to maintain a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress at the November midterm elections. International Energy Agency (IEA), the West's energy watchdog announced in March that 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves had been released. The agency also stated that the global economy has large stocks. Around three-quarters of this amount has been released. According to the IEA, total global oil reserves, including all types, such as commercial stock, U.S. stocks, Chinese stocks, and stocks on the water, appear fairly secure. Yet, many of these are in transit, have been sold to buyers, or are held in countries like China that don't provide much information on their available reserves. OIL FLOWS FROM THE MIDDLE ESTATE STILL DISRUPTED Brent prices have remained below their peak of $126 per barrel in April. The return of oil prices above triple-digits poses a threat to a market that has little margin for error. Reduced inventories and limited spare capacities leave the supply vulnerable to further disruptions. According to Vortexa's estimates, the Iran War has caused oil exports of 10 million bpd - or about 10% of global oil demand - to be lost. The IEA predicted that global oil production would drop by 4.3m bpd or 4% this year, despite some producers, such as the United States and Canada, increasing their output. Analysts say that with emergency stocks depleted, and millions of barrels?a day already off the market, the market is less able to absorb?new disruptions?than it was at the beginning of the war. "I believe the market is attempting to treat this increase in energy prices as an anomaly. It's not. This is structural. It is not going to disappear, and I would say that it is part of a security premium. It's only going grow bigger," said Jeffrey Currie.
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Bloomberg News reports that Dow is considering exiting its $20 billion partnership agreement with Aramco.
Bloomberg News reported that Dow was considering a reshuffle of its portfolio as it reshuffled its business in the face of a prolonged industry downturn. Dow shares were up almost 3% on premarket trading following a report that said Saudi Aramco may use this opportunity to purchase Dow's share and increase their ownership in Sadara Chemical Co. The report stated that other strategic or financial investors may also bid on Dow's shares. However, no final decisions had been made. Dow and Aramco didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The chemicals industry has been impacted by a number of factors, including stagnant demand in Europe, increasing production costs, changing regulatory requirements, and persistent global oversupply. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has put further pressure on chemical makers, as it has disrupted oil flows and petrochemicals. Sadara Chemical temporarily halted production earlier this year citing disruptions in the supply chain due to war. In April, Dow said that it would stop recognizing losses for the Saudi joint-venture once liabilities had reached obligations as per accounting rules. The U.S. chemical giant's exit of Sadara could be a significant?shift? in the firm's priorities for its region. Sadara has a complex located in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Its annual production capacity is more than 3,000,000 metric tons of chemicals and plastics. Dow has also been reevaluating its ownership of non-core assets throughout its global portfolio. Dow began a strategic review in 2024 of certain European assets. In January, it had reduced its workforce by 13% as part of a major restructuring that aimed to boost profitability.
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Oil tops $100 and stocks fall as Middle East tensions increase
Brent crude prices soared above $100 per barrel on Wednesday as the escalating conflict engulfing the Middle East fueled fears of energy-driven inflation and sent global stock markets tumbling in advance of a number major central bank decisions. Brent crude futures rose by as much as 3%, reaching a session-high of $100.95. This was the first time the price has surpassed the symbolic level since July 24. After Iran claimed it had fired ballistic missiles on a U.S. military base in Jordan, and both sides claimed they had attacked vessels, oil supply concerns from the region were raised. The latest rise in energy prices has caused concern that higher inflation may prompt central banks around the world to tighten monetary policy for longer. U.S. Stock Index Futures dropped about half a percentage,?setting Wall Street Indices up for a 3rd consecutive day of losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index dropped 1.5% at 1123 GMT. It is on track to experience its largest percentage drop in two months. Manish Kabra, Societe Generale's multi-asset strategist, said that $100 is a round figure, a psychological one, but for developed markets, the break-even price of oil is higher. "We believe crude oil needs to reach $150 in order to cause a significant drop in demand." Kabra warned that if the price margins of refined products do not decrease, "then?diesel costs go up with a tendency to have a trickle down impact on inflation and service." U.S. Diesel prices reached a record-high last week, as global supply constraints intensified following the?wars? in Ukraine and Iran that affected refineries in Russia & Middle East. Diesel is used widely in trucking, farming and industrial activity. Higher prices could impact the economy. The euro rose ahead of Thursday's ECB policy announcement, as markets were expecting an increase amid inflationary pressures caused by the Iran War. The currency reached a high of $1.16493, which is higher than the previous week's. As traders exited their short positions, the yen rose to a near seven-month high against the dollar. The expectations are building for a faster Bank of Japan rate increase and a possible rush of Japanese capital repatriation. Japan and the Eurozone are both energy importers. U.S. INFLATION TESTS The benchmark yield for global borrowing costs is the 10-year U.S. Treasury. It traded at 4,808%. It reached a three-year high last week of 4.818% as traders increased expectations of tighter monetary policies. The U.S. consumer and producer price reports that are due to be released this week are expected to be a true test of these bets. Policymakers are looking for more evidence that inflation is continuing its downward trend. The odds of a U.S. Federal Reserve?quarter point hike or a holding on Wednesday next week are close to 60%, but the BOJ is almost certain?to increase by a quarter point two days later. The yen gained around 0.4%, reaching 153.350 to the dollar. It is now moving back toward its previous session high of 152.89. Market players reported that it had risen by around 4% in the last five sessions. Hawkish comments made by?BOJ officials were ostensibly responsible for this move, which then snowballed when breaks of 'key levels' triggered more buying. The pound rose 0.1% to $1.3558. The Bank of England will announce its latest decision on Thursday of the following week. Economists predict that the key rate for the rest of the year will remain unchanged. Gold rose 1.1% to $4,403 per ounce.
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LME launches steel contract using Shanghai Prices on October 27
The London Metal Exchange will launch a contract for steel on October 27 using prices from its Shanghai counterpart, the 'LME' announced -on Wednesday. This is part of China’s efforts to increase its influence on global commodity pricing. In June, the LME announced an agreement with the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the new contract. At the time, the LME stated that trading would start in October. However, it did not specify a date. The SHFE, one of the most liquid steel contracts in the world, will be mirrored on the LME to increase trading volume and attract new customers. The new contract is based on Shanghai Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Futures. MiRan Park is the chief business officer of the LME. She said: "From next week, the LME provides the market with an easy way to access?what's widely regarded as a global benchmark for the sector flat steel. The exchange also outlined an incentive program for market participants who provide quotes for the new contract on its electronic trading platform. China is urging its futures markets to expand internationally and innovate as Beijing seeks to exert greater influence over global commodity prices. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. owns the?LME.
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Brent oil surpasses $100 due to Middle East conflict, which is causing supply concerns
The price of oil topped $100 per barrel for the first time since six weeks on Wednesday as the escalation of fighting between U.S. forces and 'Iranian forces raised concerns about the supply coming from the region. This also raised fears over inflationary pressures, and increased energy costs for businesses and consumers. Brent, the global benchmark for oil, has increased by 25 percent since early last week as hope fades of a permanent solution to the six-month old U.S./Iran conflict. This week, the rally intensified after Iran-backed Houthi attacked Saudi energy installations and set them ablaze. The increased risk of disruptions spreading across the Gulf region was heightened by the attacks. The break of oil above $100 signals that global markets are becoming more vulnerable due to months of supply losses caused by disruptions in oil exports via the Strait Of Hormuz and inventory drawdowns. Oil investors have expressed their opinion about the impact of this latest escalation of violence in the Middle East, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. They are voting with dollars, and this vote strongly indicates unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil flows again unhindered, supply and demand will not align in the near future. Brent futures are still below the $126 level that was reached earlier in the conflict. However, sustained prices above $100 could have a ripple effect beyond the energy market, increasing transport and manufacturing costs and reigniting inflation concerns. This would also keep interest rates high for longer. OIL STOCKS are low Some key oil consumers have seen their oil stock dwindle after six months of lower oil exports due to the war with Iran. The United States also drained heavily on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is now at its lowest level in 1982. After years of releases from former President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump to cushion consumers against high fuel prices, the reserve now contains 289.7 millions barrels. Trump's Republican Party faces a threat from persistently high gas prices over $4.00 per gallon. The party will be fighting to maintain a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress at the November midterm elections. International Energy Agency (IEA), the West's energy watchdog announced in March that 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves had been released. The agency also stated that the global economy has significant stocks. Around three-quarters of the oil reserves have been released. According to the IEA, total global oil reserves, including all types, such as commercial stock, U.S. stocks and SPR, Chinese oils, and stocks on the water, appear fairly secure. Still, there are a large number of reserves either in transit or committed to buyers, or in countries like China that don't provide much information on their available reserves. OIL FLOWS OUT OF THE MIDDLE ESTATE ARE STILL DISRUPTED Prices are still below the April peak, when Brent surged to $126 per barrel. The return of oil prices above triple-digit levels poses a threat to a market that has little margin for error. Reduced inventories and limited spare capacities leave the supply vulnerable to further disruptions. According to estimates by?Vortexa which tracks oil shipments, the Iran War has resulted in oil exports being missing of 10 million bpd or about 10% of global oil demand. The IEA predicted that global oil production would drop by 4.3m bpd or 4% this year, despite some producers, such as the United States and Canada, increasing their output. Analysts say that with emergency stocks depleted, and millions of barrels?a day?already offline, the market is less able to absorb new disruptions than at the beginning of the war. "I believe the market is trying treat this increase in energy prices like a one-off. It's not. This is structural. It is not going to disappear, and I would say that it is part of what I call a security premium. It's only going grow bigger", said Jeffrey Currie.
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Gold gains on weaker dollar; US inflation data is in focus
Gold rose on Wednesday, supported?by a softer U.S. Dollar, as?investors? weighed inflationary forces from renewed attacks in Middle East, and awaited price data to get clues about the Federal Reserve policy outlook. Spot gold increased 1.1% per ounce to $4401.60 by 1116 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.1% at $4445.30. As the U.S. Dollar weakened, greenback bullion became more affordable to buyers overseas. Lukman Otunuga is a senior research analyst with FXTM. He said that the weaker dollar, as well as technical buying have helped gold bounce from its 100-day moving mean. Gold and oil do not always move in tandem, even though Brent broke above $100. This week's price action shows why. The dollar is softening, and this has outweighed the pressure on gold today. Gold's direction in the near term will be determined by inflation data released this week. Investors are preparing for the release of producer price index (PPI), due Thursday, and consumer price index, due Friday. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 60% probability of an interest rate increase at the central banks policy meeting next Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed that it had fired ballistic missiles on a base used by the U.S. military in Jordan and attacked 10 vessels on Wednesday after Washington announced it had destroyed five Iranian tankers. Brent crude prices surpassed $100 per barrel on Wednesday for the first since July 24. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge. However, rising rates are likely to reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold. In a note, Ole Hansen said that bears could be focusing on an emerging head and shoulders formation. A break below $4,300 may signal a deeper corrective move towards the established support zone around $4,000, he added. Silver spot gained 1% to $66.30 an ounce. Platinum rose 2.2% to 1,852.69 and palladium rose by 0.2% to 1351.37. World Platinum Investment Council stated that the global platinum market will be in surplus this year for the first since 2022 due to the weaker demand from investment and jewelry.
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Copper nears record highs in spite of Middle East concerns
Copper prices reached record levels on Wednesday due to a shortage of supplies in the United States. As 'hostilities' in the Middle East flared, concerns were raised about global demand and growth. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.5% by 1045 GMT to $14,641 per metric ton after reaching an all-time record high of $14 779 on Tuesday. After the escalation of attacks by Iran and the U.S., oil prices soared above $100 per barrel. This is a six-week high. Ewa Manthey is a commodities?strategist with ING. She said that copper?is easing off record highs, as investors become more cautious regarding the macro-outlook, especially?with oil at $100 a barrel, raising concerns about inflation and global economic growth. LME copper is up 25% since March's three-month low. This was largely due to a?flow of metal into the U.S., on speculation that tariffs would be imposed there on refined?copper, creating shortages in other countries. Natalie Scott-Gray, an analyst at StoneX, estimated that more than 1.2 millions tons of copper had entered the U.S. after Washington began its Section 232 copper investigation in February last, leaving the available material outside of the country "historically low". COMEX copper dropped 1% to $6.76 per pound. This brings the COMEX premium over LME copper up to $260 per ton. COMEX copper inventories As of Tuesday, the number of short tons (or 723,275 metric tonnes) reached 797,275. The premium of LME Cash Copper over the three-month contract After some influxes into LME storages, the price has fallen to $40 per tonne from over $500 at mid-August. LME Zinc rose by 0.2% to $4.029.50 per ton, after reaching $4.051.50, its highest since April 2022. Manthey stated that "Zinc's move above $4,000 per ton reflects an even tighter market with the ongoing challenges in mine supply continuing to support prices." Nickel eased by 0.1% at $16,845 and tin rose 0.7% to $55,260.
Climate-resilient agriculture gains momentum as Europe bakes
Sam Squier’s 200-acre farm in South?east England, amidst scorched brown fields, stands out as an oasis of lush greenery.
Squier’s Aberdeen Angus herd feeds on dense 'pasture' maintained by plantings that have retained water and improved the soil quality.
Squier said, "This year's a great example of what you can achieve in a year without rain."
He said, "Our vision was improving the soil structure and building resilience within our business to mitigate against both prolonged hot and dry weather periods and prolonged wet weather periods."
His cattle, which are genetically modified to produce tender Japanese Wagyu beef, graze a mixture of grasses and deep-rooted herbs, also known as herb leys.
The method was inspired by ancient farming practices. It reflects the decades-long effort to introduce climate resilient farming, as governments and regulators around the world sought to reduce supply chain vulnerability.
The extreme weather this year has heightened the urgency of the debate about whether climate change is changing the economics.
According to interviews conducted for this article with over 25 people involved in the issue, banks and insurance companies, water companies, governments, and major food groups like McDonald's, are all funding a change in farming practices.
Financial Losses from Extreme Weather
Meteorologists expect to declare Britain’s summer officially ending on August 31 as the hottest ever. Europe has experienced extreme heating this year with five heatwaves, and rainfall far below average.
Nearly three quarters of England are officially in drought after its hottest June on record and the driest month of July.
Farmers in the UK have warned that the UK's crop of cereals will be the worst ever since records began. Fruit and vegetable producers have also said they expect a reduction in production. This is echoed by warnings across Europe.
According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, the losses to farmers in Europe and Britain due to failed crops during the heatwave in June could be up to EUR2.3bn ($2.7bn). The increased costs of energy and fertilizer due to the Middle East war have already had a knock-on effect on inflation.
NUTRIENT-ENHANCING & ENERGY RICH
The herbal leys on some Squier's farms, near Chelmsford are still standing over knee-high even after two months of no rain and without irrigation.
The herbs and grasses are rich in energy, they help control parasites, reduce medication requirements, and the legumes fix nitrogen into the soil to eliminate the need for artificial fertilizers.
They are concentrated on a small area, where they graze the vegetation. The cows move twice daily. The cows create a layer of protection over the soil and their manure helps to return seed back into the ground. This improves the soil's health and increases water retention. Squier hasn't had to purchase winter feed in eight years.
He believes that the soil now holds 400,000 litres more water per acre compared to before he started regenerative agriculture. Earthworm numbers increased from 80 million in the first six months to 680 millions after the switch.
Big Companies Help Farms Switch Techniques
Squier was able to make the switch thanks to grants from the government. He said that without the support, his farm would be unable to survive.
Other people also have problems with ownership and rental arrangements, financial restrictions and resistance to changes.
As evidence grows that investing in new farming methods is worthwhile, it's becoming more popular to work with companies across different sectors, including banks and insurers, who have an interest in protecting their own interests from extreme weather.
Andrew Voysey of the agriculture consultancy Soil Capital said that farms adopting... regenerative techniques consistently outperform more conventional holdings in terms both of yield and profitability during drought stress.
He cited an organisational study that showed farms adopting regenerative practices were able to reduce drought-related losses in yield by at least 10% around 85%.
In Britain, Lloyds Bank, Affinity water, Severn Trent, and AXA XL have joined forces to create the Food & Nature Fund. Funds are pooled and distributed to farmers for soil health improvement.
Ben Makowiecki is the Agriculture Sustainability Director at Lloyds. He said that water companies could reduce their costs by removing farm chemicals in river systems. They would save PS4 ($5) or PS6 for each pound invested in farms. Insurers can also access data on how regenerative farming can help mitigate flood risks.
He said that "systemic changes" in the industry cannot be achieved by working individually.
Routes to Regen is another scheme, which involves companies such as McCain, McDonald's and UK supermarket Waitrose. It also includes banks like Lloyds, Barclays, and NatWest, and insurers such as Aon and Tokio.
Instead of creating a pooled funds, the aim is to offer farmers a variety of options for support. Options include preferential loan terms, technical assistance, incentives from food companies, peer-to-peer learning, and insurance products.
A spokesperson stated that after launching the initiative last year with only 100 farmers, the goal is to expand to at least 200 this year and to include six additional counties in addition to the original six.
Major Food Groups are Increasingly Involved
Jon Banner, global chief-impact officer at McDonald's said that building a resilient food system was bigger than any single company. The company aims to invest at least $1 billion in supply-chain reliability over the next decade.
McCain Foods is a Canadian frozen potato company that offers a variety of support programmes to its farmers, including financial assistance, guarantees, incentives, and long-term contracts.
Charlie Angelakos, Vice President of Global External Affairs and Sustainability at the company, said that supply concerns were behind its decision to focus on regenerative agriculture. He added: "This is not just a climate-change play for us." We see this as an 'assured supply initiative.'
Some have been able to change their lives because of the support they received from the insurance industry.
Nestle is the largest food and beverage company in the world by market capitalisation. Insurers have offered lower insurance fees against natural disasters or yield declines for regenerative farming practices.
Nestle's Chief Sustainability Officer, Antonia Wanner said: "That's a new tool.
This year, Generali Italia launched a pilot project involving 500 farms. The program links sustainable farming practices with 'higher indemnity limitations for climate-related incidents. Future phases could include lower premiums.
The British farming officials could not say how many farms use regenerative technologies because it means different things to different people.
Andy Gray is also an English farmer who has switched.
He pointed a thermometer at two areas of his farm on one of the hottest days of the summer.
Under a clover cover crop, the soil temperature registered at 32 degrees Celsius. He said that on a nearby bare spot, the temperature reached 51 C (123.8 F), which is a temperature high enough to kill most of the soil biology plants need.
Gray, a farmer in Devon, a county located in the southwest, said, "If I maintain soil moisture for two weeks before the drought begins, that will give me an additional fortnight of growing."
If it stays green, it will continue to produce.
(source: Reuters)