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ROI-War? What is war? Aluminium's Gulf disruption premium vanishes: Andy Home
You wouldn't guess it by the price of aluminium. Two damaged Gulf smelters, and the resulting?logistical constraints at other smelters have already created a 2 million metric ton gap in the global supply chains. After surging to a 4-year high of $3,787.50 per tonne in early June, London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month aluminium now trades around $3,170 a tonne, exactly where it traded before the United States launched its "Operation?Fury", a joint strike with Israel against Iran, on February 28. Where did the war premium end up? Is the market right in being so'relaxed' about?the unprecedented shortage of a metal that both Washington and Brussels consider to be a critical one? What is a SPEEDY Recovery? After an Iranian missile attack, the market was encouraged by the progress that Emirates Global Aluminium made in repairing and reactivating their Al Taweelah plant. As of July 2, the company has restarted 89 out of 1,262 smelter cells. Qatar Aluminium, which is still operating at 60% capacity, continues to be affected by the Iranian attacks. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Gulf production fell by 20% during the first half this year. Since the start of hostilities, smelter production has dropped by more than 2 million tonnes annually. Even if you assume that things will return to normal, it could be several months before the full recovery is complete. This is becoming increasingly unlikely, as the United States continues its bombing campaign against Iran and Tehran tightens the chokehold it has on the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran's government, have also begun to enforce their own Red Sea blockade. CHINA RAISES EXPORT VOLUMES The unexpected calm in the market over the past few days is due to a growing belief that even if the Gulf metal loss continues, it can be "offset" by increased exports from China or Indonesia. China's aluminum smelters enjoy high profit margins due to the combination low alumina prices and high metals. According to consultancy AZ Global, capacity utilisation is close to 99%. World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which collects official data on customs, reports that exports of semi-manufactured aluminum products like bars, rods, and tubes grew by 10% year-on-year during the first five months of the 2026. The 595,000 tonnes of aluminium shipped in May was the highest number since November 2024. China's exports of primary and alloy products are not equivalent to the production lost in the Gulf. However, they can help restore the market balance by suppressing Western demands. China's exports are in direct competition with the West which has already implemented multiple trade protections measures. INDONESIA RISING Indonesia is another option. A Chinese investment boom has led to the rapid rise of China as a primary aluminium supplier. The Hua Chin Smelter, which produces 480,000 tons of steel per year, is a joint venture between Tsingshan Holding Group (THG) and Huafon Group. It ramped up production last year, and in May, it applied to register the "HCAI" trademark with the LME. Alamtri Resources Indonesia is another newcomer that has built a plant of similar size and began exporting its products in June. According to Greg Wittbecker of Wittsend Commodity Advisors, the project pipeline includes 11 new smelters, with a combined annual production of 13,000,000 tons. WBMS reports that Indonesian exports of primary metal jumped from 155,000 ton in 2024, to 511,000 ton in 2025. They also grew by 58% in the first five month of this year. It is easy to understand why the aluminium industry has relaxed its stance on the impact of the Gulf production. Stock ABSorbers The apparent resilience of the aluminum supply chain is also a cause for concern, as shown by Indonesia's trade flow. Last year, the main destination for exports was China with 40% of all shipments. South Korea, Vietnam and Japan followed closely behind with 16%, and 12% respectively. Exports to Europe were substantial, especially in the fourth quarter. Indonesian smelters sent 15,000 tons of iron ore to Spain, 14,800 to Croatia, 11000 to Bulgaria, 5,500 to Italy, and 5500 to the United Kingdom. A further 39,000 tons was sent to Turkey. It seems that this was a collective stock building exercise in anticipation of the implementation of Europe's Carbon Border adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is scheduled to begin at the beginning of this year. The new generation of plants is powered by coal and therefore costs for CBAM are higher. The build-up of inventory has played a major secondary role in reducing the impact of Gulf disruption. The biggest question is, however, how much money has been withdrawn and when it will need to be replenished? While the war premium has disappeared from the LME's futures market it still remains in the CME physical premium contracts. Since the beginning of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, the European duty-unpaid rate has increased by 65%. The Japanese duty-unpaid premium has doubled. LME traders are sanguine about the worsening situation in Gulf but their counterparts on the ground don't appear to be so certain. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Weekend Reads: Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon's battery recycling and the Kill Zone
Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly feature that highlights what the Open Interest team has been reading, watching and listening to. The Open Interest team shares what they've been watching, listening to and reading. This week's selections include the emergence of drone warfare, Europe's AI ambitions and Jamie Dimon's worries about long-dated bonds at JPMorgan Chase. This weekend we are reading... RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist. He has produced an amazing, frightening and visually stunning piece on Ukraine's "kill zone" with drones, which has changed the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. CLYDE RUSSELL is a ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist. This report by Kpler looks at the record-high volume of crude oil "on ice", which, they believe, is putting a cap on crude prices. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The Battery Network's 2025 impact report is dedicated to promoting recycling of batteries in the United States. The report reveals that recycling critical metals can be a key component of building a resilient domestic supply. However, the success is dependent on micro improvements, like increasing drop-off locations, education, and safety features. Listen to MIKE DOLAN's podcast, ROI Finance & Markets columnist. This podcast by the Bruegel Think tank examines how Europe has fallen behind the U.S. and China when it comes to AI and how they can catch up. The 'battle for AI stack' explores the "Airbus for AI initiative" and examines what it will take for Brussels to make its new cloud-based and AI-industrial proposals a success. We're also watching... JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: In the newest edition of "The master investor" podcast, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon conducts an extensive interview with journalist Wilfred Frost. Dimon said he wouldn't be a buyer of bonds with a long term and he is wary about the S&P 500 near its current highs. He says that the market is currently priced for "a pretty good outcome", if not perfection. The opinions expressed here are the authors'. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski)
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A mid-stage study of an experimental GLP-1 drug improved fatty livers without requiring weight loss.
Reporting on the latest research into the skin discoloration disorder Vitiligo, which may lead to new treatments in the future. EXPERIMENTAL GLP-1 COMBO ?DRUG PROMPTLY IMPROVES FATTY LIVER DAMAGE Researchers say that combining an experimental GLP-1 weight loss drug with another type was able to produce dramatic improvements in fatty hepatitis in a midstage study. Improvements were visible as soon as 12 weeks following treatment. The D&D Pharmatech once-weekly combination drug combines its experimental GLP-1 drug, zabopegdutide, with TLY012, designed to induce cell death. The participants in this trial had fatty liver disease, which was confirmed by biopsy. Researchers had announced that after 48 weeks, biopsies revealed that patients randomly assigned to receive a new combination drug showed significantly greater reductions in liver fatty tissue and improvement in liver damage than patients who were given a placebo. Researchers reported in this week's Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology that clinically significant improvements in blood tests were evident even after just 12 weeks. Seulki Lee, D&D's President and CEO, said that many of these benefits were experienced before weight loss was meaningful. This suggests that?zabopegdutide has direct therapeutic effects beyond weight loss on the liver. Researchers reported that zabopegdutide was effective even among patients who lost less than 5% of their weight in the 12th week. PIGMENT PRODUCING CELLS CAN REACTIVATE IN WHITE SKI SKIN PATCHES Researchers in Japan have discovered that pigment-producing cells are still present in white patches of skin due to vitiligo, an autoimmune disorder which causes the skin to lose color. Researchers reported in Nature Communications that the pigment-producing cell has entered a state where the mature cells have reverted to a primitive form and lost many of their specialized function, including production?of pigment. In a statement, Dr. Lingli Yang from Osaka University stated that the study revealed a new mechanism for the development of the disease. This could lead to a change in the way we treat it. The pigment-producing melanocytes are situated on a thin, flexible membrane which provides them with instructions for their continued function. The melanocytes usually bind to the so-called "basement membrane" via laminin-211. However, in patients with vitiligo, this membrane contains a higher level of laminin-332. Because their preferred binding protein is no longer available, melanocytes change ?how they attach - and the changes activate pathways that ultimately result in the melanocytes regressing to a non-pigment-producing ?state. Researchers have used drugs that target these pathways to reactivate melanocytes, pigmentation genes, and reverse many of the features of dormant skin cells. This was an exciting discovery, because most current treatments focus on suppressing autoimmune reactions and reducing inflammation," said Professor Ichiro Catayama of Osaka University. It may be possible to find new treatment options, such as reactivating cells or restoring the normal attachment of basement membranes.
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Russian central bank reduces key rate from 14.25% to 14%
The Russian central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate to 14% from 14.25% on Friday despite an increase in inflation linked to the 'Ukrainian drone attack' on'major oil refineries, e-commerce stores and warehouses. Most analysts had expected that the central bank would keep its key interest rate at current levels. On?Friday, the central bank also cut its forecast for economic growth to zero or 1%. This is compared with a previous forecast between 0.5%-1.5%. The central bank also increased its '2026 inflation prediction to between 6%-7%, up from between 4.5%-5.5%. "In the second quarter of 2026, the economy grew at a moderate rate." The central bank stated that the significant price?growth in summer and the higher inflation expectations were mostly due to one-off factors. Attacks on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine have caused a disruption in gasoline supply and increased fuel prices. Meanwhile, attacks on the leading online retailer Wildberries has hit the country's consumer economic heart. According to official data, the?consumer prices index (CPI), which measures inflation, rose 0.9% from May to June. Annual inflation, however, was 6.3%, up from 5.3% one month prior. The price of petrol has risen by 16% in the last year. The central bank uses household inflation expectations as an important indicator when deciding on its rate. In July, they reached their highest level since March 2022 during the market turmoil. Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya, Writing by Gleb Brianski, Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Copper is on the rise, and will likely gain weekly as non-US stocks tighten.
Copper was?higher? on Friday and on track for a small weekly gain, as stocks outside of the United States tightened. This offset macro-concerns. The benchmark three-month copper price?on London Metal Exchange?was up by?0.2% to $13,626.50 per metric ton at 0925 GMT, after two sessions in which it had fallen. The metal is on track to end the week with a 0.7% increase after the Middle East conflict escalated and sent oil prices over $100 per barrel. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks in China's top metals consumer, China The weekly total fell by 12.9% compared to the previous week, reaching 69,610 tonnes, which is the lowest level since February 2024. Copper stocks on the LME The lowest level since March is 276,775 metric tons, but the available inventory has risen by 5.2%, to 113450 metric tons, after reverse cancellations in South Korea, and Taiwan, where metal that was destined to leave the system, were re-issued on warrant. A day earlier, 700 tons were canceled. Sandeep Daga said that the re-warranting was a warning to buyers following a series of withdrawals. Comex copper stocks are traded in the U.S. The metal's production reached a record of 639,147 tons in advance of possible import tariffs. John Meyer, an analyst at SP Angel, said: "They have all the copper the world has to offer. But anyone buying it on the spot from the warehouses is paying a high price for it." The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Friday of 10% and 12.5% for goods from 60 trading partners, allegedly due to lax enforcement of the forced labour bans. However, this move had little effect on markets. Other metals include?aluminum, which fell by 0.7%, to $3,165.50 per?ton; zinc, which was unchanged at $3,586; lead, up 0.1%, to $1,895; nickel, up 1.1%, to $17.425; and tin, adding 0.4%, to $53,510. (Reporting and additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Editing by Mrigank Daly and Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Investors monitor Mideast developments as oil prices fall and gold gains.
Gold ticked up a bit?on friday, reversing previous losses, as oil fell below $100?per barrel mark. Investors are watching developments in the Middle East to get a fresh perspective on inflationary risks driven by energy and the outlook for U.S. rates. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,055.38 an ounce as of 0925 GMT after falling 2% Thursday to $4.047.26. U.S. gold futures August delivery rose 0.2%, to $4.058.10. "Gold is now slightly positive after moving from a negative position earlier, driven by lower oil prices. This has reduced pressure on the Fed's rate-setting," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He added, "Our view remains that the Fed is on hold next Monday and this should support gold prices in the months to come." Brent crude rose by more than 7 percent on Thursday, surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since last May. This was after U.S. President Donald Trump had promised "major punishment" to Iran and its Houthi ally after Yemeni fighters attacked two Saudi oil tanks in the Red Sea. Prices fell below this milestone on Friday. The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are putting pressure on gold prices. They also raise expectations for higher interest rates in the future, which can reduce the appeal of gold that doesn't yield. Investors now look forward to the Federal Reserve's meeting on policy next week. It is expected that rates will remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are still 'pricing-in' about a 78% probability of a rate hike in September. The European Central Bank kept interest rates at the same level as expected on Friday, but left the door open for another rate hike in September. India's gold discount widened the most in seven weeks after a price rise earlier in the week discouraged buyers. Meanwhile, China, India's top consumer, saw an increase in purchasing interest. Silver spot rose by 1.2%, to 58.36 dollars per ounce. Platinum gained 0.2%, to 1,603.49 dollars, while palladium fell 0.4%, to $1.251.65. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)
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China's CiDi aims to sell autonomous mining machines overseas this year
Chief Executive Albert Hu, of the Hong Kong listed Chinese mining equipment manufacturer CiDi, said that it expects overseas deployments to grow this year, as it expands "beyond China". Hu stated that CiDi had equipped semi-automated autonomous excavators with the company in Australia. The company is now preparing to roll out a more extensive program in Australia this year. It will also be working on securing contracts in South America, Europe and the Middle East. CiDi, along with rivals such as Fujian's EACON, are competing to supply self-driving mining equipment and trucks. This will reduce labour costs and fuel consumption while improving safety. Hu stated that CiDi has also developed robotic machines for explosive hauling, drilling, and drilling, which are "very precise, dangerous" jobs. He said that some of his trucks now have robotic arms. "Is that a truck?" Is it a truck? "We're blurring lines between the two." Hu claimed that CiDi could grow faster than China’s autonomous mining equipment industry. He anticipates that overseas markets will contribute a double-digit percent of revenue to the company's total next year. CiDi, unlike its rivals who operate truck fleets and leave manufacturing to their partners, sells both hardware and software to mine operators. Hu calls this a "asset-light model". CiDi's revenue last year, which is expected to be 884.8 million Yuan ($130.6 millions) when it goes public in 2025, more than doubled. Hu stated that deployments and revenue in China grew by 374%, compared to 73% for China’s industry. ROBOTS AT THE WORKSHOP At an open pit quarry in Jurong (Jiangsu Province), owned by the cement conglomerate TCC Group Holdings on Friday, 12 unmanned, fully-electric trucks drove across the site, charging or hauling limestone autonomously to crushing facilities. CiDi claims that the fleet is the world's first self-driving and fully electric mining truck fleet. China is the leader in the world for the use of autonomous mining trucks. Approximately 10% of trucks are now driverless. CiDi has a global fleet of more than 1,700 vehicles spread across 30 coal and quarries, mostly in China. Hu says that a single operator can remotely monitor up to 100 trucks. Hu explained that CiDi’s competitive edge is based on the ability to coordinate the movement of its fleet, especially in large coal mines with up to 500 autonomous trucks operating at the same time. "That is a huge technological threshold for anyone working in this area." CiDi also designs robots for drilling and blasting. Hu explained that "we're not just talking about a few kilos TNT." "We're referring to a truckload that has to be rammed into the side of the hill in order to blow up the rocks." In the third quarter, explosive-handling robots equipped with CiDi will be available. Drilling robots are also expected to arrive in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi provinces. Hu stated that CiDi is in a partnership with British mining machinery maker MMD Group, and it's looking for other partners, such as Chinese mine operators, to expand overseas.
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Wall St Week Ahead: US stocks will be tested by the Fed's decision and a tech-led earnings deluge
The wobbly U.S. Stock Market will be influenced by a Federal Reserve Meeting?set to shed some light on interest rate policy, as well as a slate of earnings from technology companies and artificial intelligence heavyweights. The major equity indexes are on course for a weekly decline, with Alphabet and Tesla's quarterly results dragging them down. Alphabet's fallout, which was sparked by an increase to its already massive AI budget, has set a negative tone for the results of other AI "hyperscalers", such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, due next week. AI-related stocks are at the core of the equity market's gains this year. They have helped drive the bull market into its fourth year. Despite the recent stumble, the S&P 500 benchmark is still up 8% by 2026. The market, according to Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group, "feels frothy". Hooper stated that investors are walking on eggshells to some extent. "And they are more likely to react negatively to signs of imperfections." Will the FED hold rates steady? The Fed meeting is taking place at a time when oil prices are surging due to the escalating tensions across the Middle East. Brent crude hit $100 a barrel ?on Thursday. This has led to fears that policymakers may need to raise rates more aggressively to control the inflation rate, which has consistently been well above the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank was expected to hold ?rates steady when it gives its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, with Fed fund futures on Thursday afternoon pricing in a 36% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, according to LSEG data. Wall Street was still unsure whether the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh would surprise the markets. In a recent note, BNP Paribas' economists stated that "the possibility of a rate shock cannot be completely ruled out." This will be the second meeting under Warsh who has shunned ahead guidance but pledged to bring inflation to target. Paul Nolte is a senior wealth advisor at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management and a market strategist. INVESTORS LOOK FOR SIGNS OF FED RATE INCREASE Investors will be looking for clues about future rates, even if Warsh holds the rate steady. Fed funds futures factor in two quarter point rate increases by the January 2027 Meeting. If you have the impression that more committee members are leaning towards multi-hike scenarios for the remainder of the year, I believe that this is going to be a problem. ", said Scott Wren. Senior global market strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Increased interest rates increase borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses, slowing down the economy and weighing heavily on stocks. These higher rates can also lead to higher Treasury yields which have already been increasing in recent weeks, creating competition among stocks. The 10-year Treasury benchmark yield reached its highest level in early 2025 on Thursday. The yields of bonds move in the opposite direction to their price. Investors will also receive a series of updates next week on the U.S. Economy, including reports on the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product, monthly inflation, and consumer sentiment. BIG EARNINGS INCLUDING BIG SPENDERS ON AI Around one-third S&P 500 firms are expected to report results. This is the busiest reporting week of the second-quarter season. LSEG IBES reported that more than 80 companies had already reported their earnings for the second quarter of 2018, and this was a significant profit increase, which Wall Street anticipated, and incorporated into stock prices before earnings. AI spending is expected to be a major driver of stock price in 2026. This will boost semiconductor companies and firms involved in building data centres and other infrastructure. Investors are also becoming more concerned about the ability of big spenders to recoup massive investments. This issue was raised with Alphabet’s report, and it could affect how investors react to Microsoft's, Amazon's and Meta’s quarterly reports next week. Hooper, from Man Group, said that the companies may easily be able to meet their earnings targets and provide strong guidance for the quarter ahead, but the market will punish them as the investors' perception of AI spending changes. She added, "Where they once saw opportunity, they now are more likely to see risk." Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Editing by Michelle Price & David Gregorio
Copper, growth and IMF: what investors are looking at in Zambia's next election
On August 13, Zambians will vote in the presidential and parliamentary election. Investors and pollsters expect President Hakainde Hichilema to defeat an opposition fragmented by Brian Mundubile.
Investors should ask if a second Hichilema-led term will be able to turn Zambia's macroeconomic turnaround after default into stronger growth that creates jobs.
Investors will be paying attention to the following key issues:
PUSH FOR A NEW IMF ?PROGRAMME
The previous $1.7 billion programme, which supported the government's restructuring of sovereign debt, that was run by the southern African country with the International 'Monetary' Fund, ended in January.
Investors view a new IMF program as the most clear test of policy continuation after the debt restructuring.
Two things are of particular interest: the speed with which talks are concluded and if conditions shift from crisis management to growth.
A new deal must maintain fiscal discipline and pivot toward growth.
THE COPPER SECTOR KEEPS UP BUSINESS
Copper is Zambia's backbone, accounting for 70% of its export earnings. It also provides government revenue, jobs, and investment.
Investors will watch to see if Zambia can turn its pipeline of foreign direct investments in the copper industry -- including the return of Vedanta and continued investment by Barrick -- into actual production increases, given that it aims to triple the output from the current 1 million tons.
Zambia said that it does not plan to alter mining tax rates. Investors will monitor the implementation of a bill that requires miners to increase domestic procurement to 40% over three or four years.
Foreign operators may face difficulties in securing supplies or enforcement when they expand.
Reforms needed for growth
Investors want to see more money spent on exploration. Only two new major mines have been opened in the last decade. Mining is Zambia's main driver of economic growth, accounting for more than 10%.
The government must also improve its efficiency in collecting taxes and reform the grain market to allow private buyers and not the government to absorb Zambia's growing surplus of maize.
Standard Chartered claims that a bumper harvest of maize, which is expected to?rise this year to a record of 28% on an annual basis, will force government to purchase more grain from farmers.
The bank views this, along with election expenditures, as a major source of fiscal stress.
The bank projects a fiscal deficit in?2026 of approximately 5.0% of the GDP, which is more than twice the original government target of 2.1%.
Investors are concerned that, if the state does not shift to a private sector-led grain marketing strategy, its purchasing obligations will increase as production increases towards the government's 10 million ton target.
Power Supply
Investors believe that Zambia's ability?to expand copper production will be heavily dependent?on improving the power supply, after drought-related shortages revealed vulnerabilities in the hydroelectric system.
Investors will watch to see if reforms can ensure reliable power for planned mine expansions.
RISE RISKS Ahead
Election monitors have warned of the risks associated with voter-card confiscation, vote-buying and disillusioned youth in urban areas, especially those living on the Copperbelt or northern provinces.
Investors also monitor weather and power risk. Zambia is still highly susceptible to drought due to its reliance on hydropower and rain fed agriculture.
El Nino 2023-24 caused widespread crop failures. It also led to power shortages that forced severe load-shedding, affecting economic activity. A poor rainy season in the future could have a negative impact on electricity production and economic growth. (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker, Clarence Fernandez and Colleen Goko)
(source: Reuters)