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Gold slams possible extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire
After a U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Data and a reversal of gains in Treasury yields, gold edged down?on Friday, erasing?the majority of the day's losses. As of 1312 GMT spot gold was down by 0.3% to $4,723.61 an ounce. It had fallen 1% earlier, reaching as low as $4683.84 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell?0.2% at $4,741.50. "What drove bid were signs of a possible breakthrough in the Lebanon ceasefire this morning. "But that coincided with the release of economic data," said Daniel Ghali. Commodity strategist at TD Securities. On Thursday, the U.S. will host a second round of talks between Lebanese envoys and Israelis. Beirut is seeking an extension to the ceasefire after Israel's airstrikes killed at least five people, including a reporter. Ghali stated that "certainly yields and data play a role but all asset values, including gold are moving in line with headlines." After reaching a record high of over a week earlier, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields have lost most of their gains. This has reduced the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold. More Americans than expected filed for unemployment benefits last week. Initial claims for unemployment benefit rose by 6,000, to seasonally adjusted 214,000 in the week ending April 18, up from 210,000. Brent oil traded above $100 per barrel on Thursday, as the U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled. Trade restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz also continued. High energy prices are likely to increase inflation and, therefore, interest rates. Gold is considered an inflation hedge but higher interest rates reduce its appeal. Spot silver dropped 2.3% to 75.89 per ounce while platinum fell 2% to 2,032.77. Both had hit a more than one week low earlier. Palladium fell 2.2% to $1,511.17 after hitting a two-week low. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)
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Austria claims that OMV now complies with the rules regarding the reduction of petrol prices
Austrian oil company OMV brought itself into compliance with the new rules for lowering 'petrol prices, after initially not implementing 'them fully. National energy regulator E-Control announced on Thursday. The Economy Ministry, which oversees the energy policy, has asked E-Control for a review. Last week, OMV, a partially state-owned company, said it was in compliance with the rules despite reducing wholesale diesel prices by less than the required five euro cents per litre. The coalition government has enacted these rules in response to a surge in oil prices caused by the Iran War. The rules require that any increase in fuel taxes resulting from a rise in value added tax be returned to consumers through a lower fuel tax. They also cap retailer margins including OMV's. In a statement released by the regulator, Economy Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said: "It's now crystal clear that the entire 5 cents of the margin reduction has to be passed on. E-Control made this absolutely?clear." "After intensive discussions with OMV, these 5 cents were passed on?continuously and fully in the last few days. "I am happy with this clarification, and our joint approach," he said. OMV stated that it had reached a "common agreement" with E-Control regarding the implementation of rules, and was now in compliance with them. OMV stated that "this newly established clarity?makes it possible for all participants in the market to implement applicable requirements consistently."
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IMK: Germany's recession risk increases as Iran war raises energy prices
A study from the IMK Institute, seen by?, shows that Germany's risk of slipping into a?recession is now much higher due to?the Iran war. The IMK institute released a study on Thursday that showed the risk of Germany slipping into?recession has increased sharply due to?the Iran war. The Institute for 'Macroeconomics' and Economic Research (IMK), which compiles the monthly business cycle indicators, showed a 33.5% chance of a?recession in the second quarter. This is up from 11.6% when the IMK started collecting the data at the beginning of March. For the first time since October, the indicator has shifted from "yellow green" - which indicates moderate growth - to "yellow red", reflecting increased?economic uncertainties. On Wednesday, Germany's Economy?Ministry cut its growth projections for 2026-2027 and increased its inflation forecasts. IMK stated that the worsening of the outlook was due to deteriorating financial markets and sentiment indicators. These include higher corporate credit risks premiums, increased volatility on the stock market, and changes in interest rates, which suggest investors expect a 'rate tightening' by the European Central Bank. IMK reported that the?business climate of German companies and their export expectations has also deteriorated partly due to the?hit the Iran war is having on the global?economy. Thomas Theobald, a researcher at the IMK, said that U.S. Israeli attacks against?Iran have increased the likelihood of production decreases, particularly in Germany's high-energy industries. (Reporting and writing by Klaus Lauer; Editing by Madeline Chambers).
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The biggest risk to your investment right now is ROI. Risk aversion: McGeever
Investors could be forgiven if they hunkered down in a world of increased uncertainty and minimized their exposure to the proliferating risks. Paradoxically, risk aversion may actually be the greatest risk. The 'largest energy shock since the 1970s is now entering its third month. It's stifling global growth, inducing inflation and confusing policymakers. Investors were still trying to understand the new world order, which was marked by deglobalization, dollarisation and trade wars, before the Iran War began on February 28. These are all good reasons to adopt a defensive approach and reduce exposure to "risk assets" like equities. No. Money does indeed speak. Specifically, profit. The artificial intelligence boom continues to drive U.S. company earnings. This narrative has many holes, such as the unsustainable capex spree and the high sector concentration. The fear of missing out, or "FOMO", continues to be more important than anything else. Investors who hold the line are rewarded. Since the start of the war, safe havens such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the Swiss Franc have depreciated while Nasdaq, S&P 500 and other traditional assets have reached new highs. Since February 28, the Nasdaq has risen 9%. Investors seeking cover have found that they are not covered. Wall Street is not the only market that has risen. Other markets around the globe have also risen -- Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI reached new highs this week. BlackRock, with its $14 trillion in assets under management, went overweight U.S. stocks last week. JPMorgan's equity analysts upgraded their S&P year-end price forecast from 7,200 points to 7,600, which is a 7% increase from current levels. The AI outlook led to an upward revision of their earnings per-share forecast to $330 – a figure that is well above the LSEG consensus estimate of $315. They believe that if a permanent ceasefire is achieved in the Middle East, the S&P 500 may reach 8000. The outlook is either excellent or very good. No Reward for Underperformance Standing on the sidelines has real costs. The U.S. remains the world's most dynamic economy - it is home to the most innovative, profitable companies and the most liquid, efficient and effective markets. The market cap of U.S. shares is over 70% of the world's shares, and U.S. stock prices have been higher than world stock prices for 24 years. Brad Setser, global capital flows specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that no one has ever been rewarded for selling U.S. stocks. There is a deep reluctance among investors to underweight the U.S., and thus risk underperformance. This is similar to the narrative of "U.S. exceptionalism" that became popular in 2024. Investors can't afford to not have a large exposure to U.S. equities, particularly tech. This thesis was questioned in the past due to President Donald Trump's unorthodox and controversial policy. However, the overwhelming dominance of U.S. Hyperscalers has quelled any concerns about the current administration. Investors may be concerned about the direction U.S. foreign or fiscal policy is taking, but selling America is too risky. RUN OUT OF STEAM? The current Wall Street rally may not last forever. S&P 500 has just experienced its third consecutive week of gains greater than 3%. Jefferies analysts point out that this only happened twice over the last 75 years, in August 1982 and May 2020. Trading volume for "call" contracts - which are derivatives contracts?effectively bets on future price increases - is at historically high levels, particularly in the tech sector. There is very little room for error with this hyper-bullishness. There are other options. Investors who want to be exposed to the AI boom and?tech explosion have options in Asia. They can choose from companies like SK Hynix, Samsung, or Taiwan's TSMC. Several European firms will also benefit from the splurge in defense and tech spending that is expected in the future. Diversifying on margins is not necessarily a performance hit for investors. The big three U.S. indexes are recovering strongly from the lows they reached in March due to the Iran war, but Japanese stocks and the benchmark MSCI Asia ex Japan as well as MSCI emerging markets indices performed better so far this year. They don't have the same size or liquidity as Wall Street. In the U.S. a combination of loose financial conditions and strong earnings as well as ample liquidity continue to reduce volatility. This, in turn should attract more capital. Investors are prompted to reduce their risk exposure and leverage when volatility increases. Risk appetite can remain relatively buoyant when volatility is contained. Few can afford the risk of being cautious at this time. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. 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Dangote offers joint refinery to Kenya, Tanzania, and neighbours
William Ruto, the Kenyan President, said that East African countries were discussing plans for a joint refinery in?Tanzania’s port of Tanga modeled after Nigeria’s Dangote Plant. East Africa imports all of its refined petroleum, mainly in the Middle East. This leaves the region susceptible to disruptions of supply and price spikes, as was seen with the fallout from the Iran conflict. Ruto said at a Nairobi conference on infrastructure financing that "we're going have a shared refinery in Tanga, which will benefit us all, because this refinery will take the oil coming from DRC, the oil coming from Kenya, the oil flowing from South Sudan and the oil flowing from Uganda." Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote, who also ?attended the conference, said he ?could replicate his 650,000-barrel-per-day Nigerian refinery in East Africa, provided governments in the region supported the initiative. Dangote stated, "My commitment is to lead the way and ensure that the refinery is built in the next four or 5 years if we can agree with three or four governments about it." Uganda has announced plans to build a refinery. It hopes to begin commercial crude oil production in this year. ?In 2024, it announced a deal with United Arab Emirates-based Alpha MBM Investments to develop a 60,000-barrel-per-day ?plant. Dangote said that he also planned to set up?about twenty fertilizer blending factories across Africa by the year 2028, to meet most of Africa's needs. Dangote, when asked about the planned listing of his Nigerian refinery said that African investors should take part, adding, "All of Africa should be investing." I will pay dividends in US dollars. Reporting by Duncan Miriri, Writing by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by Bate Fenton and Susan Fenton
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Bloomberg News reported that Anglo American had at least three bidders for its Australian coal business.
Bloomberg News reported that Anglo American had at least three potential buyers for its Australian steelmaking coal business, after the deal with Peabody Energy fell through. The report was based on people familiar with this matter. The report said that Stanmore Resources of Australia, Mitsubishi Corp. from Japan, and PT Buma Internasional Grup, based in Indonesia, were among the 'bidders' for the coal assets. Stanmore, Mitsubishi, and Buma International did not "immediately" respond to the request for comment. Bloomberg reports that a deal could be announced in the coming months. Peabody retracted its $3.78billion bid in August for Anglo American’s Australian coal assets, and the London listed miner launched an arbitration against the U.S. based coal miner. Anglo plans to sell off its non-core assets, including mines located in Queensland's Bowen Basin. Anglo, who has agreed to merge Teck Resources and De Beers to create the fifth largest copper producer in the world, is currently selling its nickel assets and struggling De Beers diamonds. It sold its Platinum business in 2025.
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Copper falls from multi-week peak on Middle East insecurity
The copper price fell from a?multi-week peak on Thursday due to the stalled U.S. Iran peace talks, the continued closure?of Strait of Hormuz as well as a stronger dollar. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $13,247 per metric ton during 'official open-outcry' trading after reaching its highest since February 27, at $13,481.50. No signs of a return to peace talks between Iran and the U.S. have emerged, while Iran has tightened the grip it holds on the Strait of Hormuz. This has sent oil prices over $100 per barrel. Standard Chartered's head of base-metals research, Sudakshina UNNIKRISHNA, said that the LMEX had reached an all-time-high yesterday. The base-metals complex has pulled back on early trading due to the lack of progress in the U.S.Iran ceasefire negotiations and the uncertainty they continue to create. The LMEX Index, which is comprised of six major?base metals that are traded on the exchange has gained 11% this year. The copper price rose in the previous session, along with the equities. It then grew a little more on Thursday morning on the relief of the U.S. extending a ceasefire. Concerns about a sulphuric-acid shortage are increasing, which is pointing out copper supply constraints. China's Customs data revealed that its exports of sulphuric acids to Chile, its largest overseas acid market had dried up by March. This was even before news broke this month that China planned to ban exports in May. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active contract for copper closed the dayday trading session up 0.3%, at?102.780 yuan (15,046.33) per ton. This was a slight decline after it had risen as high as 1.7%. Copper prices have been boosted by the strong demand from China, the world's largest metal consumer. However, there are signs that this could be changing. The premium over SHFE price paid to 'buy copper on the spot market After commanding a premium of 115 yuan on April 15, the price has dropped to 5 yuan a ton. Nickel was the only LME material in positive territory, after French miner Eramet announced that it planned to halt production of its Weda Bay Nickel mine in Indonesia by next month. LME nickel rose 0.9% to $18,620 per ton in official activity after reaching its highest level since January 29, at $18,680. LME?aluminum fell 0.7%, to $3.588 per ton. Zinc dropped 0.7%, to $3.447. Lead was down 0.2%, to $1.960.50. Tin was down by 0.1%, to $50,395.
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Zambia's Luanshya Copper Mine will restart in August following a two-decade stoppage
The mines ministry announced on Thursday that Zambia's Luanshya Copper Mine will resume production in August, after more than a decade of idleness. CNMC purchased Luanshya and now holds 80% of the company. Zambia's mining arm ZCCM IH owns 20 percent of the mine. Production had to be halted after severe flooding destroyed infrastructure. According to the Mines Ministry, as of 'March 27, approximately 87.9 millions cubic metres of water have been pumped out of the mine. This has allowed for the development of infrastructure and construction. The ministry announced in a statement that "Luanshya Mine... will resume production at its upper mining in August 2026." The lower mine production is scheduled to begin in 2029, under the ongoing redevelopment by China Luanshya Mine. The 28 Shaft's Redevelopment represents an Investment of Around $710 Million,?covering New Shaft Systems, a Concentrator Plant, and Related Infrastructure, according to the Ministry. It said that more than 75?million had already been invested into the project. CLM is also exploring the possibility of collaborating with ZCCM Investments Holdings to develop mining opportunities within newly acquired areas in the region. Once fully operational, the Luanshya copper mine will?produce approximately 100,000 metric tonnes of copper per year by 2030. This will?boost output for Africa's second-largest producer of copper as it aims to?more than triple its production to 3,000,000 tons by 2031. Reporting by Chris Mfula and Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo, Johannesburg; editing by Joe Bavier
Trump's call for more AI datacenters is met with opposition from his own voters
Residents wore camouflage hats, red shirts and other signs of unity to a meeting of a rural Pennsylvania planning committee. They were there to protest the proposed data center that they feared could rip up their farmland or disrupt the tranquil rhythms of their valley. The majority of the residents were loyal supporters who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, winning their county by 20 percentage points. They were angry at Washington for its push to accelerate artificial intelligence infrastructure. This has led to the growth of data centers in rural areas across the U.S., where land is inexpensive.
Residents of this county, which has 18,000 residents, stepped up to the microphone one evening in November and asked Talen Energy officials how their proposed data center would increase residents' utility costs, reduce farmland and stress local water and resources.
Two women sang a riff of Woody Guthrie’s folk song “This Land Is Your Land”: "Say no rezoning so that water will keep flowing and crops will continue to grow." Politicians across the U.S. urge a rapid expansion in data-center capacity, and new energy production to keep AI competitive. Trump, a Republican politician, has urged his administration to ignore environmental regulations and permits that would give local communities a say. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro (Democrat) and Republican Sen. Dave McCormick (Republican) are wooing developers to invest in the rapidly-growing industry with incentives and upgrades of infrastructure.
Some communities are happy to see the economic boost. The backlash in Montour County in central Pennsylvania is a reflection of a growing coalition between farmers, environmentalists, and homeowners who are united to oppose data-center expansion.
Data Center Watch published a report earlier this year that found $64 billion in data center projects were blocked or delayed due to local opposition from states such as Texas, Oregon, and Tennessee. Pennsylvania critics worry that the region will become "data center Alley" in northern Virginia, with its sprawling, vast complexes.
The pushback, if successful, could slow down efforts by the administration to build AI infrastructure quickly enough to keep up with global competitors. Politicians say that anger over these projects could also add to Republicans' affordability concerns as they prepare for the midterm elections in 2026.
Chris Borick is a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College, in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
He added that the politics of AI infrastructure remain unresolved: "The technology is still evolving and politicians are still figuring out their position." Like social media, everyone jumped in without understanding the consequences.
SAVE CULTURE
Talen Energy has requested to rezone approximately 1,300 acres of land in Montour County, from agricultural to industrial uses. This is the first step towards building a large and complex data center with 12-15 buildings. The site is located in the shadows of Talen Energy's 1,528 megawatt natural gas-fired power station, nestled among farmland, dirt roads and the Amish community.
Talen Energy said that the project would require 350 acres of farmland used for soybeans, livestock and corn. Residents are concerned that losing the land will weaken local agriculture, and a nearby facility that processes soybeans to produce regional food and feed.
Rebecca Dressler, Republican Montour County commissioner, stated that the concerns were less about ideology and more about preserving the character of the region. Dressler stated that "small-town character is what defines our community." People aren't against development - they simply want growth that suits who we are.
The county planning commission voted 6-1 against the rezoning at its November meeting. This decision was met with thunderous applause. Dressler and two other county commissioners will make a final decision on the issue in mid-December.
Residents are not blaming Trump but rather the billion-dollar data-center companies that have the money to buy up farmland and reshape rural areas, leaving locals to pay higher utility bills.
Theresa McCollum (70), a Trump supporter, said: "I believe it's a culture that has forgotten the little person, the people living here, the farmers struggling with the economic situation."
The shift of power from Washington to a region that takes pride in local control is not well received.
"Stay out. Craig High, a 39-year-old Trump supporter, said that without federal involvement, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Both (political parties) are pushing data centres and giving regulatory relief - water permits, permitting, everything.
PENNSYLVANIA BOOM Pennsylvania's plentiful, stable electricity makes it a hotspot for data centers. It has attracted tens billions of dollars in investments from Amazon.com and Alphabet's Google. Microsoft is also interested, while Constellation Energy wants to use the old Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant to power new server farm.
Residents fear that they will end up paying the price.
Pennsylvania utilities predict a dramatic increase in electricity demand by data centers at the end of this decade - enough power to supply several million more homes.
According to federal data, electricity prices in Pennsylvania have increased by 15% over the last year. This is roughly twice the national average. This surge has already rippled through the grid in the region. Recent auctions have seen a spike in capacity prices, which determine how much power plants get paid to supply the grid during times of peak demand. Utilities have also begun to raise rates to pay for growing infrastructure.
Analysts warn of a significant increase in customer bills over the next few years.
Many families are already feeling the strain. Since 2022, the amount of overdue utility bills has risen faster than the inflation rate. According to the Century Foundation a progressive research group, Pennsylvania is among the states that have the highest household energy debt.
These pressures on the wallet are beginning to change politics in certain parts of America. Alicia Johnson was elected as one of only two Democrats to Georgia's utility boards since 2007, after her campaign focused on frustration with rising power bills and the unchecked expansion of data centers. She said that the issues she raised in her campaign are a preview of the challenges states such as Pennsylvania could face during next year's midterm elections in the United States. In recent years, power prices in Georgia have risen dramatically due to massive cost overruns in the new Vogtle Nuclear Plant.
Johnson said that data centers and utility costs were two of the most important issues in the election. People are angry. They don't like data centers that don't have guardrails and they don’t want to pay for them. In 2026, this will be a part of the national debate on affordability.
Ginny Markille-Kerslake is an organizer for Food and Water Watch. This environmental non-profit group has spent many months organizing opposition to data centres in places such as Montour County. She predicted that there would be a political reckoning in the next year.
She said that "communities, red, blue and everything in-between, are united in their opposition", referring to the so-called red regions dominated by Republicans, and blue regions controlled by Democrats. This issue brings people together at a time we are so divided.
(source: Reuters)