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MORNING Bid EUROPE: Trade-driven rally concludes the week on a low note
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The week began with a bang, but by Friday traders were beginning to worry that the recovery had been overshot. They also feared that there would be more twists and turn in the trade saga. Wall Street and European futures are virtually unchanged, while Asian shares are in a mixed state. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell by 0.8%. Alibaba's more-than-5% fall was a major factor. Investors were not impressed with its earnings. Australian shares performed better, rising by 0.7%. Now, it seems that the stock market is acting as if there was never a tariff war. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan hovers just below its seven-month high. Even blue-chip stocks in China have recovered their losses since President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on the rest the world - which has since been put on hold. Investors who had been beaten down by the bond market cheered a surprise drop in U.S. Producer Prices and a soft core Retail Sales print. They increased their forecast for rate cuts from 49 basis points to 56 basis points for this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points on Friday to 4.424%, continuing a 7-bps drop overnight. Trump has been very busy over the last few days promoting deals in the Middle East. This includes a possible nuclear deal with Iran. Trump's remarks that a deal is near sent oil price tumbling by 2% on Friday. Markets are eager to hear about progress in the trade negotiations with China, and any other trade agreements that may be signed after an agreement reached with Britain. Remember that tariffs have been higher since the 1930s, even before Trump started his crusade against trade. Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, announced that it will have to raise prices this month because of the high tariffs. This means more pain for American consumers. The latest U.S. prices data may have looked benign but it could only be a matter time before the tariff impact starts to show in the hard numbers the Federal Reserve needs to see to decide its response to the trade-related uncertainty. Economic calendars for Europe and the U.S. could be a little thin. U.S. releases include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and import prices for April. These could be helpful for gauging Trump's tariff maneuvering. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey U.S. Import Prices for April
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Topside for Hollandse Kust (west Beta) Substation Set to Sail to Final Location
Two weeks after the successful load out, the steel topside for the Hollandse Kust (west Beta) substation platform is ready to leave the port of Hoboken near Antwerp in the Netherlands for its final North Sea destination.The topside is schedule to leave the Dutch port on May 17, on a floating pontoon via the Scheldt and the Western Scheldt towards the North Sea.As soon as Heerema Marine Contractors’ installation vessel Sleipnir has completed its current job in British waters, it will sail to the coast of North Holland to start the installation operation.The superstructure of the transformer platform, weighing over 3,500 tonnes, will be installed 50 kilometers off the coast of Egmond aan Zee.As part of the job, Sleipnir will lift the 45-metre long, 20-metre wide and 25-metre-high structure from the floating pontoon and place it on the jacket, which has been firmly anchored to the seabed since May 2024.(Credit: TenneT)The topside and jacket will then be welded together and connected to the electricity grid in the coming months.Through this connection, the electricity from the 700 MW project, operated by RWE/OranjeWind, will be fed to the high-voltage grid via the transformer station in Wijk aan Zee.The Hollandse Kust West Beta offshore wind farm is expected to enter service in 2025.
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Copper prices rise on optimism about US-China trade
Copper prices rose on Friday, and are on track to finish the week on a positive note, thanks to a truce in the Sino-American tariff war. However, concerns about the long-term demand of the metal have capped any further gains. Asian stocks are set for a strong, but tempered week as the euphoria surrounding the U.S. China trade talks has faded. Meanwhile, renewed bets on policy easing by the United States have sparked a rally among the beaten down bond markets. As of 0238 GMT the benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.1% to $9,585 per metric ton. The most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1% to 78,430 Yuan ($10,889.43). Metals from Shanghai said that "Chinese traders were happy with the 90-day break, but the market was still uncertain as to what would happen after 90 days." She added that the fact that China exporters are rushing to ship cargoes is a telling sign. LME copper prices are up around 1.5% this week, while Shanghai copper prices have increased by about 1%. The initial optimism about the 90-day suspension of most retaliatory duties agreed between Beijing and Washington has faded. The market has also been focusing on potential new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on copper imports since February. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.1% per ton to $2492, zinc fell 0.1% at $2723 and lead dropped 0.4% to $1996.5. Tin rose by 0.1% to $33,000. Analysts expect the price to be between 78,000-79,000 Yuan per tonne in the near future, reflecting a mixed market sentiment. SHFE aluminium dropped by 0.3%, to 20,185 Yuan per ton. Zinc fell by 0.6%, to 22,595 Yuan. Lead also declined 0.5% to 16920 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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Iron ore prices fall on the back of falling demand in the near term, but still head for a weekly gain
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, despite a trade truce that was reached between the US and China. This is due to signs of a softer near-term market demand as well as growing concern over the outcome of the Sino-US tariff war. As of 0228 GMT on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded September iron ore contract was trading 0.75% lower, at 729.5 Yuan ($101.3) per metric ton. This represents a 4.7% increase so far this week. As of 0220 GMT the benchmark June iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 0.68% to $100.5 per ton. This represents a 3.7% gain this week. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, fell 0.4% from the previous week to approximately 2.45 million tonnes as of May 15. This weighed on sentiment and prices. Analysts and traders expect hot metal production to remain stable in May and June, as mills are encouraged by profit margins to keep up their high operating rates. The easing of trade tensions is likely going spur another wave of first-run shipments. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysts forecast an average annual ore price of $100, despite the subdued outlook for demand amid possible China steel production cuts and renewed optimism about easing trade tensions. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell on the DCE. The declines were 2.88% and 1.49 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also fallen. Rebar fell 0.51%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.55%. Wire rod slumped 0.38%, and stainless steel declined 0.42%. ($1 = 7,2033 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Gold has its worst week for six months due to trade calm
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were set to experience their biggest weekly drop in six months as a stronger US dollar and diminishing trade war fears dampened its appeal. As of 0222 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,223.06 per ounce. Bullion is down about 3% this week, and it's on track to have its worst performance weekly since November 2024. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $3.224.90. Gold priced in greenbacks is now more expensive to overseas buyers due to the dollar's 0.3% gain for the past week. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive, said that "gold prices were under heavy pressure this week due to the markets' cheering of a de-escalation of the U.S. China trade war." The U.S. announced earlier this week that it and China had agreed to temporarily reduce the high tariffs, which were imposed on April. Retail sales growth in the U.S. slowed down as well. A report revealed that consumer prices in April rose less than anticipated. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Thursday that the U.S. is in a good position, with inflation headed to the central banks' 2% target. However, trade policies have clouded this outlook. The markets are pricing 57 basis point rate cuts for this year. It is expected that the easing will begin in September. In a low rate environment, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge to economic and political uncertainty, thrives. Gold price drops continue to attract buyers, which shows the precious metal is still a preferred asset. Global growth and inflation forecasts are still murky, said KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer. Silver spot fell 0.6%, to $32.49 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.3%, to $986.58. Palladium was down 1.1% at $957.42. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Jacob-Phillips and Sherry Mukherjee, Bengaluru)
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Indonesian military: 18 separatists were killed in Papua, according to the country's military
An official confirmed that Indonesian military killed 18 Papuan Separatists in an operation conducted in the easternmost region Papua on Thursday. Three civilians were also killed. In a statement, Kristomei Santuri, the military spokesperson, said that during Wednesday's raid, the military seized dozens munitions including an assault weapon, bows andarrows, and an unspecified home-made weapon. The Indonesian military suffered no casualties. Sebby Samboom, a spokesperson for the Papua Separatists, said that three of its members were dead. A prominent church group in Papua, citing reports from local churches, said that three civilians died during the shootout. Nearly 1,000 people were evacuated. Ronald Rischard is the head of the Papua branch. He told reporters that the attack happened while villagers were sleeping. Ronald Rischard urged the country's rights agency to conduct an independent investigation into the incident. He said that the cycle of violence has continued, and a child’s ear had been razed to ashes by a bullet. However, he did not know who had fired the shots. Since 1969, when the area was controversially handed over to Indonesian rule following Dutch rule by a vote overseen and supervised by the United Nations, rebels have waged a low-level independence campaign in the richly resourced Papua bordering Papua New Guinea. Rebels have held foreigners as hostages, including 26 wildlife researchers from 1996 and a New Zealander pilot who was freed last year after 19 months of imprisonment. The rebels claimed to have killed 17 people in the last month. They said that they were disguised gold miners. The statement stated that the Indonesian military had deployed personnel to the area of the operation on Wednesday in order to anticipate the movements of the remaining rebels. (Reporting and editing by Martin Petty, Ed Osmond and Ananda Teresia)
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Brazil's Marfrig completes the takeover of BRF by merging as MBRF
Brazilian beef processor Marfrig revealed on Thursday that it plans to complete the takeover of BRF, a poultry and pork processor. It also hinted at plans to list shares in the combined entity eventually in the United States. Marfrig has been pursuing a strategy of gaining scale in order to compete with Brazilian meatpacking company JBS. JBS is preparing to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. All three companies are now listed on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. Marfrig, BRF and other parties disclosed that the proposed deal involved a share exchange whereby BRF holders would receive 0.8521 Marfrig shares for every BRF share. This move will also involve the creation of a new company called MBRF. It will control National Beef owned by Marfrig, a meat processing firm based in America that will be integrated into the corporate structure. In a joint announcement, the companies stated that they expect 805 million reais (142 million dollars) in annual synergies as a result of the tie-up. 400 to 500 millions reais are expected to be captured during the first year. The proposal will be voted on by shareholders on June 18. BRF executives told analysts that the move was intended to build on the strengths of both companies, giving them greater power to compete on a global scale with giant food producers. Fabio Mariano, CFO of MBRF, said that MBRF may move its fiscal domicile to New York and list shares there at some point. He said that the merging companies should first focus on extracting synergies from the new structure. Marfrig purchased almost a quarter BRF shares in May 2021. It became the company's largest shareholder at that time, but stated it would be a passive investor. Marfrig gradually increased its stake to 50.49%. In the past 12 months, these companies generated combined net sales of 26.75 billion reais (152 billion reais), with 38% from food products that were processed and had a higher price. Both companies' shares rose on Thursday in Sao Paulo, beating out peers from the sector including Minerva & JBS. BRF shares rose 7% at one stage during the session. Marfrig rose by 4.34%, to 20.66 Reais. $1 = 5.6817 Reais (Reporting and editing by Gabriel Araujo, Diane Craft).
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Oil prices to rise by 1% this week on U.S. China trade agreement
The oil prices rose on Friday after a steep drop the previous day. This is expected to lead to a weekly increase of more than 1 percent as the optimism surrounding the U.S. China trade relations outweighed the prospect of Iranian supplies returning to the market. Brent crude futures were up 17 cents or 0.26% to $64.70 per barrel at 0007 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 18 cents or 0.29% to $61.80. Prices fell more than 2% the previous session, after President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. and Iran were "close" to a nuclear agreement. He also said that Tehran "sort of" accepted its terms. Sources familiar with the negotiations said that there are still some gaps to be filled. The oil prices spiked in the first part of the week, after the U.S., and China, two of the largest oil-consuming economies and consumers, agreed on a 90 day pause to their trade war, during which time both sides would lower their trade duties. Sino-U.S. trade tariffs were hefty, and sparked fears that global growth would be severely affected. The oil market is still subject to the dynamics of supply, which includes the possibility that Iranian supplies could return to the market after any agreement between Washington and Tehran. ANZ Bank said in a client note that "the easing geopolitical risk weighed on the sentiment already burdened with fears of rising supplies from fellow OPEC member" The International Energy Agency announced on Thursday that it expects the global supply to increase by 1.6 millions barrels per day in 2018, up 380,000 bpd compared to its previous forecast. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ will be unwinding their output cuts.
Document shows that India has advanced hydro-projects in Kashmir after terminating the pact with Pakistan
According to a government and industry source, India has accelerated the start of four hydropower projects under construction in the Kashmir area by several months. This is after it suspended a water-sharing agreement with Pakistan which had slowed down progress.
The Indian government is using the unilateral suspension of Indus Waters treaty 1960, which it unilaterally imposed following the deadly attack on Kashmir last month, to try and take advantage of this.
India said that two of the "terrorists", who killed 26 men in a popular tourist spot in Kashmir on the 22nd of April, were from Pakistan. It has also taken a number of diplomatic and financial steps against Islamabad at a time when relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors are deteriorating.
Islamabad denied involvement in the attack and threatened legal action for the suspension. It also said that any attempt to divert or stop the flow of water to Pakistan would be viewed as an act war. Pakistan relies on the Indus System for 80% its farms and for most of its output in hydroelectricity.
Since nearly two weeks, the armies have been exchanging small arms fire along the border. Pakistan claims that India is about to launch a military attack.
New Delhi, despite Pakistan's threats, has taken steps to reduce water supplies to Pakistan.
The document was an undated list compiled by the Power Ministry and reviewed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
Pakal Dul (1 000 MW), Kiru (620 MW), Kwar (560 MW) et Ratle (850MW) are the four projects. The four projects are located on the Chenab River. Although its waters are intended for Pakistan, India has been allowed to build hydroelectric projects that use run-of water without significant storage.
All the projects are being built by NHPC (India's largest hydropower company), a state-owned corporation. The document states that they are scheduled to begin between June 2026 - August 2028.
The document states that various agencies, such as those focusing on law enforcement and labor supply, were asked to speed up work.
NHPC, the Indian Ministries of Power, Water Resources and Foreign Affairs did not respond immediately to requests for comments.
Indus River Authority officials in Pakistan held a Monday meeting and "noted unanimously with concern that a sudden reduction in River Chenab flows at Marala, (the headworks which regulates flow), due to a short supply from India, would result in further shortages" of summer crops.
The authority announced in a late-Monday statement that it would use downstream reservoirs "in light of the crisis created by Indian shortages in the Chenab River".
"PLANS FOR MORE"
Last month, India's Water Minister vowed to "ensure that no drop of water from the Indus River reaches Pakistan".
According to a source in the Indian industry, there have been several meetings between officials of various government and private agencies and the power ministry over the last week regarding projects in Jammu & Kashmir.
The source declined to identify herself because the matter was sensitive. "In general, government orders to speed up existing projects such as this means that it wants to plan new ones," she said.
India is requesting that seven projects, with a combined power of 7 gigawatts and a cost of 400 billion rupees ($4.73 billion), be expedited. Could not identify all of the projects.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague has already heard a dispute between Pakistan and India over Ratle. The dispute concerns the small pondage or water storage area as well as the turbine design.
New Delhi was required by the water treaty to provide Islamabad with extensive details about projects on three Indus Rivers that were meant for Pakistan, the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum. Modi's Government has sought a modification to the water treaty, citing India's growing population and the need for cleaner forms of power like hydropower.
Officials and experts from both countries had stated that India could not stop the flow of water immediately because the treaty only allowed them to build plants without the need for large storage dams. However, a Pakistani official claimed the Chenab River had already seen a drastic drop in flows.
Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana told Bloomberg News that the flow of water has dropped by 90% since Sunday.
Sources at Pakistan's Indus Authority said that the Chenab flow has been wildly fluctuating since Sunday. On Sunday, water was flowing at Marala Headworks at 31,000 cusecs. It then dropped to 3,100 on Monday and is now up to 25,000.
Source: "The changes in water supply are due to India's (some hydro) projects," said the source. They can stop the water, then dump it. These variations are not large enough to cause significant damage, but they have an impact on the canals.
(source: Reuters)