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Copper continues to retreat due to weak Chinese factory data and a stronger dollar
The copper price continued to fall on Friday. Weak industrial data from China, the world's largest metals consumer, coupled with a strong dollar and profit taking following a rally that reached a record high, all contributed to its decline. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was down slightly at $10,915 a metric ton, in open-outcry official trading. This is the second consecutive day of losses, after reaching a record high of $11,200 on Wednesday. LME copper is on track to achieve its third consecutive monthly gain after gaining 5.7% this month. The data showed that China's factories shrank in October for the seventh consecutive month, due to a decline in export orders. This was due to the fact that months of putting in extra work in order beat U.S. Tariff threats had finally worn off. Ewa Mnthey, commodities analyst at ING, said that the China data released today has affected the base metals market sentiment. She added that "while near-term indicators of demand remain mixed, disruptions in supply will keep prices at a level around $10,000 per ton." Copper will need to be in high demand, particularly from China, to continue its upward trend. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.7%, to 87.010 yuan (12,215.36) per ton. The copper contract was also set to rise 4.8% for the third consecutive month. As prices have risen, many Chinese buyers have remained on the sidelines. Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper, which is based on the demand for imported copper into China, dropped by 28% in the last month, to $36 per ton. A slightly stronger dollar index also pressed the market, hovering around a three-month high touched on Thursday. A firmer dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more expensive to holders of other currencies. Marex said in a recent note that the copper price decline could continue. "Caution! We note that some indicators suggest that additional corrective action may be needed." LME aluminium prices rose by 0.6% to $2,880 per ton in official activity, despite a rise in LME inventories A 102,275 ton inflow into Malaysian warehouses has caused the increase to be a fifth. Other metals include LME Nickel, which rose 0.1% to $16,240 per ton. Zinc gained 0.6%, to $3,055, while tin increased 1.3%, to $36,265; and lead fell 0.2%, to $2,018. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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The dollar and OPEC+ supply are weighing on oil prices, which is expected to drop for a third consecutive month.
The oil price was flat on Friday but headed for a third monthly decline as a strong dollar, weak China's data, and increased supply from major producers worldwide weighed. Brent crude futures recovered some of their earlier losses and were now up 29 cents or 0.5% at $65.29 per barrel at 1303 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was up 53 cents or 0.9% at $61.10 per barrel. Dollar-denominated goods such as oil are more expensive because the U.S. currency is near its three-month-highs. Sources said that Saudi Arabia may cut its crude oil price in December for Asian buyers down to multi-month lows. The price of oil also fell after an official survey revealed that China's manufacturing activity had declined for the seventh consecutive month in October. Brent and WTI will fall by 2.6% and 2% respectively in October, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers increase their output. The increased supply will also help to cushion the impact on Russian oil exports, which are currently restricted by Western sanctions. These include China and India. Brent is expected to average $67.99 a barrel by 2025, which is about 38 cents higher than last month's estimate. WTI will average $64.83, which is slightly higher than September's estimate. People familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ was leaning toward a modest increase in output for December. The group will meet on Sunday. The Joint Organizations Data Initiative reported that the top crude exporter Saudi Arabia's exports reached a six-month record of 6,407 million bpd during August. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also reported a record production of 13,6 million bpd in the last week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that China had agreed to start the process of buying U.S. Energy. He added that an extremely large transaction could take place regarding the purchase of oil from Alaska. Analysts are unsure whether the U.S. China trade agreement will increase Chinese demand for U.S. Energy. (Florence Tan contributed additional reporting; Susan Fenton edited the article)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS TEMPLATE
What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. Hello Morning Bid readers! Wall Street was spooked Thursday as Microsoft and Meta saw their shares fall due to concerns over the AI capex spree. The big news this week was that chip giant Nvidia became the first company whose market cap exceeded $5 trillion after only hitting $4 trillion three months earlier. It looks like Halloween will be more of a "treat" rather than a "trick," with U.S. equity prices rising before Friday's bell. We began the week with the news that there would be a likely agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping. We saw that happen on Thursday, after a meeting that the U.S. President described as "12 out 10". They reached a deal which included a reduction of U.S. duties on Chinese products and a postponement of China's restrictions on rare earths. Jamie McGeever of ROI Markets warns not to get too excited. The U.S. China story is nothing new. The Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell was the source of another big story this week. The Fed's Wednesday decision to reduce interest rates by 25 basis point was widely anticipated, but the Chair indicated that a cut in December was not a foregone conclusion. The Fed may have been recognizing that interest rates cuts are not the best way to help an economy with labor shortages. Mike Dolan, editor-at-large at ROI magazine, believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has given the U.S. Dollar a boost. It is expected to gain 2% this month. This will not go over well with Trump's administration. OPEC is meeting this Sunday, and it's expected that they will announce another increase in output. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader appears to be stuck between Donald Trump and a rock, argues ROI's Ron Bousso. The U.S. President's latest oil sanction against Russia forces Riyadh's to weigh competing geopolitical priorities and economic priorities. How effective have sanctions against Russia been? Clyde Russell, Asia Commodities columnist for ROI Asia, addressed this question in a recent article. He argued that the answer depends on how you measure success. Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition columnist this week, discussed China's electric car output and exports after a major policy pivot. In the metals market, copper was again in the spotlight as the London Metal Exchange hit a nominal high of 11,200 dollars per metric tonne on Wednesday. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me via This weekend we are reading... Here's how a New Zealand-based small insurer is an important link in the dark network responsible for shipping Iranian oil and Russian oil. Anne Krueger, former IMF and World Bank official, wrote a column this week for Project Syndicate that makes a strong case for - replacing the weakened WTO. She supports the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's push. The latest report by the shows how China, India, and Indonesia -- three of the largest coal consumers in the world -- could all reach peak power sector emission levels by 2030. This week the copper prices in London reached a new high. Here's an overview of the current market. Here's everything you always wanted to know but were afraid to ask about copper. Listening to... I recommend it in general but particularly the most recent episode where the Russian Bureau Chief and commodities editor discuss how the energy war between Russia and Ukraine has intensified. They talk about its impact on both the Russian economy and the global energy markets. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
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EU countries divided over climate goals 2040 as COP30 approaches
According to documents and diplomats seen on Friday, the European Union is still divided over its new climate change goal and continues to debate changes just days before ministers are expected to approve it. The EU is racing towards a climate goal, with the European Commission hoping to reduce global warming emissions by 90% by 2040. However, some member states are worried about the costs for their struggling industries. If there is no agreement, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the Commission, will not have a goal to share with other world leaders when they meet at the COP30 Climate Summit hosted by the U.N. This would undermine the EU's claim as a leader in climate change. When asked whether the EU would reach an agreement on a goal ahead of the COP30 leaders' meeting, which will take place on November 6, one EU diplomat said the bloc is "walking a razor's edge". China, Britain, and Australia are among the countries that have announced their new climate goals. However, due to internal disputes, the EU failed to meet a U.N. deadline last month. CENTRAL STICKING POINTS STILL UNRESOLVED Diplomats said that the EU ambassadors who met in Brussels on Friday to lay the foundation for an agreement failed to resolve key sticking points. The final negotiations will be held at a ministerial meeting on November 4. The EU diplomat stated that "Ministers must work hard" on Tuesday. The EU diplomat, along with others who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of discussions, stated that it was unclear whether an agreement would be reached. To achieve the target, at least 15 out of 27 EU member states must support it. Spain and Sweden are among the countries that want to reduce emissions aggressively. DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOREIGN CARBONA CREDITS The use of carbon credits by EU countries from developing nations in order to reach their targets is a major point of contention. France said that credits could cover up to 5% of 90% emission reductions, and Poland wants an even larger share. Germany publicly supported 3% while other countries, including Denmark, initially did not want any foreign carbon credits. According to the latest draft proposal seen by, countries are still not in agreement on whether they will offset 3% of their emissions with foreign carbon credits, as the original proposal from the Commission suggested, or when they will begin using them. France proposed an "emergency break" ahead of the Friday meeting. This would allow countries to reduce their 90% target for emissions by 3% if they absorb less CO2 than expected. The proposal is designed to convince governments that are sceptical by addressing their concerns about being forced to reduce emissions more quickly to meet the 2040 target if forests fail to deliver. A French government spokeswoman did not respond immediately to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett)
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Dominion Energy exceeds expectations on high power demand in Virginia and South Carolina
Dominion Energy beat its third-quarter profit expectations on Friday, thanks to increased demand for power in its Virginian and South Carolina segments. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a surge in artificial-intelligence and cryptocurrency datacenters, coupled with the accelerating electrification and homes and businesses is expected to push U.S. energy demand to record levels by 2025 and 2026. The company said on Tuesday that it expects the power demand for data centers to double in the next 15 years. The utility now accounts for 27% in Virginia's sales from data centers. The adjusted operating earnings of Dominion's Virginia division rose by 2.5% in the third quarter to $679 millions, while those from South Carolina rose by over 14% to $109 million. Revenue for the quarter was $4.53 Billion, up from $3.94 Billion a year earlier. Interest expenses for the company rose by over 30% in the third quarter, to $527 millions. Dominion has narrowed the range for its operating earnings forecasts to between $3.33 and $3.48 a share. This is down from an earlier range of $3.28 to $3.52 a share. The company expects to achieve results at or above this midpoint if the weather conditions remain normal throughout the remainder of the year. According to data compiled and published by LSEG, the utility's adjusted operating earnings were $1.06 per common share for three months ending September 30. This compares with an average analyst estimate of 95c per share. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Sumit Saha; editing by Sahal Muhammad)
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Public disillusionment returns as Iraqi politicians prepare for elections
Iraqis fear that the November 11 election will not bring about any real change. Many see the banners promoting reform as empty gestures by elites who have done little to improve the situation since the 2003 U.S. invasion. Since then, corruption has plagued daily life. High unemployment rates and poor public services are commonplace. Iraqis claim that their Shi'ite Muslim and Sunni Muslim leaders have become too involved in the rivalry for power on a sectarian basis to deal with Iraq's issues - despite Iraq's vast oil wealth. The election results are predetermined for many people, despite the billboards and banners that proclaim change. They serve to maintain Iraq's political equilibrium in the hands the same sectarian leaders. How do you make me trust you? Said Hatem is a Baghdad-based resident who expressed skepticism regarding the prospect of change. "You can see the advertisements on the street ...,, but they've been ruling for the past 20-25 years. How can you get me to trust you? He said. The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq has approved 7,768 candidates for the Iraqi Parliament, including 2,248 men and 5,520 women. The commission said that campaigning had been authorized from October 3 until November 8. The vote will test the confidence of Iraqis in their entrenched political system, which has failed to deliver on promises to improve services and combat corruption in a nation where Iraqis claim that vast oil revenues are only used to benefit the political elite. The Shiite party of Shia Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will compete primarily against other dominant Shiite factions backed by Iran. POLITICAL VIOLENCE SPREADS FEARS The frustration has been increased by the resurgence of political tensions, including the murder of Safa al Mashadani, a parliamentary candidate who had criticized everything from state-corruption to Shi'ite armed militias that he claimed were trying to seize his hometown. Tabark Tariq Al-Azzawi is a candidate of the Iraqi Progress Party. She said that she received threats, and feared for her own safety. "I hope that this phase will end without any more deaths or assassinations of ordinary citizens or candidates." "I hope that safety and security will always prevail," she said. It was not possible to independently verify the motive for or details of Mashhadani’s murder. According to Iraq's chief security spokesperson General Saad maan, authorities have increased protection measures, and arrests were made, while investigations continue. Many Iraqis think that it is almost impossible to bring about real change in Iraq through elections, because the same powerful groups continue their dominance of the state and its vast resources. ORCHESTRATED Election Results These parties are frequently backed by armed groups close to Iran, who control government contracts, key institutions and public funds. The voters say that this system allows the ruling alliances and their supporters to manipulate election results in their favor. These parties deny these allegations. Sheikh Abdul Jaber Hamoud is an Iraqi tribal leader who criticised the tendency of improving government outreach and services during election cycles, while neglecting most Iraqis at other times. Qais al Zubaidi, a political analyst, said: "I do not believe that the political process has been democratic since 2003. It is now a political system that is manipulated to benefit certain groups." The presence of uncontrolled arms makes it difficult for citizens to make a change. In 2003, U.S. officials believed that the removal of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein would lead to a new era in Iraq where all its communities could enjoy freedom and prosperity. In its place, a pro Saddam insurgency was followed by islamist Al Qaeda militants. A sectarian civil conflict gave rise to more extremist Islamic State jihadists. Even years after the bloodshed, few politicians have sparked hope for a better future.
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Israeli attacks in Gaza kill three Palestinians, test fragile truce
Palestinian health officials said that Israel attacked the Gaza Strip on Friday for a forth day, killing three, another test of an fragile ceasefire. Residents reported Israeli gunfire and shelling in northern Gaza, despite Israel's claim that it is committed to the ceasefire brokered Donald Trump. The Israeli military didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The Palestinian WAFA news agency reported that another Palestinian had died from wounds caused by previous Israeli shelling. Since its implementation three weeks ago, the U.S.-brokered truce, which did not resolve thorny questions like Hamas' disarmament and the timeline for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, has been put to the test by periodic violence. Israel launched a series of bombardments in Gaza between Tuesday and Wednesday to retaliate for the death an Israeli soldier. Gaza's health authorities reported that 104 people were killed. MORE BODIES HANDLED OVER Gaza's Health Ministry said that the Red Cross delivered 30 bodies of Palestinians who were killed by Israel in the war. This was a day after Hamas had handed over the bodies of two hostages. In the ceasefire agreement, Hamas agreed to release all of its hostages in Gaza for nearly 2,000 Palestinian wartime prisoners and detainees. Israel, on the other hand, agreed to withdraw its troops, stop its offensive, and increase its aid. Hamas has also agreed to exchange 360 militants Palestinians killed during the war for the remains of the 28 hostages. Hamas handed over 17 corpses after Thursday's release. 225 Palestinians bodies have been returned so far to Gaza. Hamas said it would take some time to find and recover the bodies of the remaining hostages. Israel accuses Hamas for violating the ceasefire by delaying the transfer of hostages. Gaza's health authorities report that the conflict has killed more than 68,000 Palestinians in two years and destroyed the enclave. Israel began the war in Gaza after Hamas-led fighters invaded southern Israel, killing 1,200 and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.
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Tchiroma, the opposition leader of Cameroon, says that loyal soldiers brought him to safety
Issa Bakary, the opposition leader in Cameroon, said that he was escorted by his loyal soldiers to a safe location for his safety. This could be a sign of a division within the army after a disputed vote. Tchiroma has been holed-up in his Garoua house since the presidential election of October 12, in which he declared victory. He did not specify the number of soldiers but his claim that the members of the military are loyal to him may indicate a split in the security forces of the country. Tchiroma posted a Facebook message saying, "I thank the loyalist Army for escorting and protecting me in a safe place." The central African nation's Defence Ministry declined to comment. The Cameroon Constitutional Council declared on Monday that President Paul Biya - the oldest leader in the world at 92 years old - was the winner of the elections, causing violent protests across the nation's oil and cocoa producing cities. According to a group of civil society activists, the disputed election heightened tensions across the country. Security forces are accused of detaining and killing over 500 protesters, while also killing 23 others. Tchiroma, in a separate Facebook message posted on Friday, called for a 3-day lockdown starting Monday. He urged supporters to stop all activities and stay at home as a way to express their disapproval of the results. Tchiroma, in a video, said: "Let's bring the country to a complete standstill so that everyone knows we are resisting. We will not give up." "Let's keep our shops shut, suspend our activity, and remain at home in silence to show our solidarity, and to remind the regime that an economy's strength is its people." (Reporting and writing by Anait Miridzhanian; Amindeh Atabong, Bate Felix)
100 Days of DOGE: Lots of chaos and not much efficiency
The Social Security Administration is sending lawyers, statisticians, and other senior agency officials from its Baltimore headquarters to the regional offices in order to replace veteran claim processors that have either been fired by the Trump administration or bought out. Two people who are familiar with the situation say that most of the new employees don't have the skills to perform the tasks, which will lead to longer waiting times for the disabled and elderly Americans, who depend on the benefits. In an email, a SSA official responded that reassigned staff "have vast knowledge of our programs and services." Since President Donald Trump sent remote workers to overcrowded offices, the Internal Revenue Service's internet is so patchy that employees are using personal hotspots to access the web, which crashes their computers during tax season. IRS officials did not respond when asked for a comment. The IRS did not respond to a request for comment.
Jessica Riedl is a fellow of the Manhattan Institute. A fiscally conservative think-tank that advocates streamlining government, she said, "DOGE does not seem like a serious undertaking." She believes that DOGE is only saving $5 billion and will cost more in the end.
These examples, which were previously unknown, span 14 government agencies. They were revealed in interviews conducted with 30 federal workers and experts on governance. These accounts don't provide a complete picture of Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's project to reduce the size and cost of the federal bureaucracy. However, they reveal the collateral damage caused by DOGE's attempts to make the sprawling bureaucracy of the federal government more efficient.
Harrison Fields, White House spokesperson, responded to questions regarding the impact of DOGE cuts on government efficiency in a press release. Fields stated that Musk's group "has already modernized and improved government technology, prevented fraudulent activity, streamlined processes, identified billions in savings for American tax payers." Fields didn't give any examples of how the government's computer systems and workforce have improved.
SAVE BILLIONS
Musk confirmed Tuesday that he would step down from his position as DOGE's leader next month. The end of May was the deadline for his 130-day special government employee mandate. He said that he would continue to work with Trump on the overhaul of government but not full time. The future of DOGE is in doubt because of his reduced role, but experts say that cost-cutting measures will continue.
Musk and his lieutenants are yet to provide any concrete evidence of how the government will operate more efficiently due to the massive layoffs and the termination of government contracts.
Dozens of government officials told us that DOGE teams have buried themselves into government agencies, and their computers systems are operated in secrecy. DOGE's website, which provides regular updates about the $160 billion it claims to have saved U.S. tax payers so far, is riddled with mistakes and corrections.
The White House gave examples of cost-savings, including the discovery of $630 million worth of fraudulent loans by the Small Business Administration made to applicants aged over 115 but under 11 years old in 2020-2021. $382 million was fraudulently paid out by the Labor Department in unemployment benefits since 2020.
I was not able to independently verify these claims.
DOGE has not responded to any requests for comments. Musk told Fox News' Bretbaier that his team was careful in making cuts, admitted and fixed errors, and had discovered "astonishing amounts" of fraud and waste.
You can't buy dry ice
DOGE has announced that it has cancelled almost 500,000 government-issued credit cards in its efforts to reduce costs. The agency has also imposed a limit of $1 on some cards and centralized decision-making within certain agencies. This means that managers at some regional offices cannot buy basic supplies.
It took a scientist a whole month to obtain authorization from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to purchase $200 worth of dry ice for preserving urine samples. This is a purchase that would normally be made in a local grocery store. A colleague from another regional office, who had a government-issued credit card, paid for the dry air, but the cost was $100 more because the administration barred employees from purchasing.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), which supervises NIOSH did not respond when asked for a comment.
DOGE and White House also prohibited many agencies from contacting outside vendors, as they stopped thousands of federal contracts.
A chemical analysis machine worth nearly half a million dollars at a CDC in Cincinnati has been sitting idle for months, because scientists cannot schedule training with the supplier to begin using the device, according to a source familiar with the situation.
The CDC has not responded to a comment request.
In the first week in March, the Social Security Administration's computer systems crashed ten times in four days. One IT worker said that because a quarter the agency's staff has quit or been terminated, it takes longer to bring the systems back online, which disrupts the processing of claims.
Few would dispute that the SSA computer systems are outdated, frequently crash and in need of updating. Musk told Baier that the agency's computers are "failing" and "we're fix it."
HUMANITARIAN AID CUT DOGE, since its creation on Trump's very first day as President, has largely closed down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which provides humanitarian aid to those in need around the globe, and canceled more than 80% of its programs. By September, almost all the employees of the agency will be terminated, and all its overseas offices will close. Some functions are being absorbed by the State Department.
A tally shows that the overhaul of the government has led to the dismissal, resignation and early retirement of 260,000 civil service employees.
In February, over 20,000 probationary employees (newly hired or recently reassigned workers) were terminated. After court rulings, they were reinstated. However, most were sent back home with full pay. After further court rulings, many are being fired once again.
Trump and Musk both said that the U.S. Government is plagued by fraud and waste. Many civil servants, governance experts and others do not dispute that efficiencies could be made. However, they say that there are people within the federal bureaucracy who already try to save taxpayer dollars. DOGE has targeted some of these offices for cutbacks.
Trump fired 17 inspectors in January. Their mission as government watchdogs included reducing fraud and waste.
Christi Grimm was fired from her position as inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services. She said she expected $14.5 billion in "cold, hard cash" to be recovered over the next three years through audits and fraud investigation.
The DOGE eliminated 18F, one of only a few government units tasked with streamlining technology throughout the federal government. Waldo Jaquith who worked at 18F from 2016 to 2020 said that the team saved the Pentagon $500,000,000 in just one project lasting three days after noticing two departments doing the same unknowingly work.
I was not able independently to verify this figure.
Musk and his team have a very specific idea of how they want the government to function. Jaquith stated that when Musk's team discovered it, it was destroyed.
Thomas Shedd, an appointee of Trump at the General Services Administration (GSA), in an email sent to staff members last month, called 18F "noncritical". (Reporting and editing by Ross Colvin, Suzanne Goldenberg, and Julie Steenhuysen; additional reporting by Alexandra Alper, Leah Douglas and Julie Steenhuysen)
(source: Reuters)