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Trump's Venezuela gamble has caused investors to experience more geopolitical turmoil
Global investors face a new surge in geopolitical risks after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This could unlock Venezuela's vast oil reserve and boost risky investments over the long-term, but it may also prompt a flight to security when trading resumes. Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will take control of Venezuela, an oil-producing nation. Maduro was detained in New York on Sunday, while he awaited charges. The U.S. accuses him of running a 'narco state' and of rigging the elections. Washington hasn't made a direct intervention like this in Latin America since 1989, when it invaded Panama. The events remind us that geopolitical tensions continue dominating headlines and driving the markets," said Marchel Alexanderovich, an economic at Saltmarsh Economics. "It's clear that markets have to deal with more headline risk now than under previous U.S. administrations." Markets off to a strong start in 2026 The markets were closed when the strikes occurred, but they had started the first trading day on a positive note, with Wall Street Indexes ending in the black and the dollar gaining?against an assortment of major currencies. U.S. stocks and global stock markets ended 2025 at record highs. They had notched double-digit increases in a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. Mohamed El-Erian (?a former CEO of bond fund giant PIMCO) said in a blog post on X, that the reaction to Maduro being toppled was not clear. If the markets had been open, "we would have seen an immediate decoupling between oil prices (lower because of the possibility?of increased Venezuelan imports, depending on leadership succession in Venezuela) and gold (higher because of safe haven flows amid the increased uncertainty"), wrote he. Last year, gold rose to its highest level in 46 years. This was due to a combination of factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. Trump stated at a Saturday press conference that the United States will "run the country" until we are able to make a "safe, proper and judicious transfer." He did not provide any details on the process, but said that he would not be afraid to send in U.S. troops. VENEZUELA OIL: NO SHORT-TERM REMEDY Trump, just hours after seizing the Venezuelan leader said that American oil companies are prepared to spend billions of dollars to restore Venezuela's production. This could boost global growth as a greater supply will lower energy prices. Oil prices have been relatively stable since December, hovering around $60 to $61. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. He said that this would be a great investment because it could lead to massive amounts of oil being released over time. Markets can sometimes go into a risk-off state due to the expectation of conflict, but as soon as it happens, they quickly return to a risk-on mode. Most strategists still agree that it will take many years to boost Venezuelan production, which has been slashed over the last decade due?to poor management and a lack investment by foreign companies since the government nationalised the oil operations in 2000s. This included the assets of Exxon Mobil XOM.N, and ConocoPhillips COP.N. Analysts told us that any companies who might be interested in investing there would have to deal with security concerns, dilapidated facilities, legal questions regarding the U.S. Operation to snatch Maduro, and long-term political instability. 'POLITICAL STABILISATION AND CONSIDERABLE INVESTIMENT' Stephen Dover is the chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute and the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute. He said on LinkedIn that the U.S. government has demonstrated its willingness to use force and act unilaterally, which could encourage countries to spend more money on their national security. He added that it would also add to the uncertainty surrounding the role of the dollar as a safe-haven, "while raising additional questions about the deterioration in international institution pillars." He said that a stable, productive, and prosperous Venezuela would be able to offer significant oil supplies in the future. This would be a significant boost to global growth. But it will require political stability and substantial investment in order to realize this potential. (Additional reporting from Davide Barbuscia in New York and Megan Davies, Gregor Hunter Stuart and Christina Fincher in Singapore. Editing by ElisaMartinuzzi and Christina Fincher.)
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At least 16 people killed in Iran protests, says rights group
Rights groups reported that at least 16 people were killed in Iran during the past week of unrest. Protests against rising inflation erupted across the country, resulting in violent clashes with security forces. State media and human rights groups have?reported? deaths and arrests throughout the week, but the numbers differ. The figures have not been independently verified. While smaller than previous unrest that shook the Islamic Republic, the protests come at a time of vulnerability as the economy is in ruins and international pressure is building. IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER SAYS IT WILL NOT YIELD TO ENEMIES Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned that he will come to protesters' assistance if violence breaks out. He said on Friday: "We are locked up and?loaded and prepared to go", but did not specify what actions he is considering. Senior Iranian officials threatened retaliation and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei stated that Iran would not surrender to the enemy. Hengaw, a Kurdish human rights group, reported that 17 people have been killed since the start of protests. HRANA, an activist network, reported that at least 16 people were killed and 582 arrested. Ahmad-Reza Radan, the chief of Iran's police, told state media that the security forces have arrested a large number of protest leaders in the past two days. There have been clashes in Iran's western regions, but also in Tehran, central areas and the province of southern Baluchistan. The governor of Qom (the conservative center of Iran's Shi'ite Muslim clerical institution) said late on Saturday that two people were killed in the unrest. He added that one person died when a homemade explosive device he had made blew prematurely. HRANA, a state-affiliated news agency, and Tasnim? reported that authorities detained the administrator who ran online accounts encouraging protests. CURRENCY LOST HALF OF ITS VALUE The protests started a week ago among traders in bazaars and shopkeepers, then spread to students at universities and provincial cities where protesters chanted against Iran's clerical leaders. Since the beginning of the Iranian year in March, inflation has been above?36% and the value of the rial has fallen by around?50% against the US dollar. This has caused hardships for many. The international sanctions against Iran for its expensive nuclear program have been reimposed. Water and electricity has been scarce in the country this year, and financial experts predict a global recession by 2026. Authorities tried a double approach to protests, acknowledging the economic crises and offering dialogue with the demonstrators. However, they responded violently to more fervent displays of dissent. Khamenei stated on Saturday that while authorities will talk to protesters "rioters must be put in the right place". (Reporting and writing by Elwely Elwelly, Dubai newsroom. Writing by Angus McDowall. Editing by Alison Williams).
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At least 16 people killed in Iran protests, says rights group
Rights groups reported that at least 16 people were killed in the midst of a week-long unrest across?Iran. Protests against inflation sparked violent clashes with security forces. State media and human rights groups have reported deaths and arrests throughout the week, but their numbers differ. The figures have not been independently verified. While smaller than previous unrest that shook the Islamic Republic, the protests come at a time of vulnerability as the economy is in ruins and international pressure is building. SUPREME LEADER SAYS IRAN?WON'T YIELD TO ENSEMY Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has said that he will come to protesters' assistance if violence breaks out. He stated on Friday: "We are locked and ready to go", but did not specify what actions he would take. Senior Iranian officials responded to this warning by threatening retaliation, and Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran said that Iran would not "give in" to the enemy. Hengaw, a Kurdish rights organization, reported that at least 17 people have been killed since protests began. HRANA, an activist network, reported that at least 16 people had been killed, and 582 others arrested. There have been clashes in Iran's western regions, but also in Tehran, central areas and the province of Baluchistan in the south. The governor of Qom said late on Saturday that two people were killed in the unrest. He added that one of the victims died when a homemade explosive device he had made blew prematurely. HRANA, a state-affiliated news agency, and Tasnim reported that authorities detained the administrator who ran online accounts encouraging protests. CURRENCY? LOST HALF OF ITS VALUE The protests started a week earlier among traders in bazaars and shopkeepers, then spread to students at universities and provincial cities where protesters chanted against Iran's clerical leaders. Iran's inflation rate has been above 36% ever since March, when the year began. The rial has also lost half of its value in relation to the dollar. This has caused hardship for many people. The government struggled with providing water and electricity to the entire country throughout the year. Global financial bodies predict that the world will be in a recession by 2026. Authorities tried a double approach to protests, acknowledging the economic crises and offering dialogue with the demonstrators. However, they responded violently to more forceful displays. Khamenei stated on Saturday that while authorities will talk to protesters "rioters must be put in their places".
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Police: Several teenagers killed in Swiss bar fire
Police said that teenagers as young 14 and 15 were among the 40 people who died when a bar caught fire on New Year's Eve in Switzerland, killing 40 people. The police in Valais have identified 16 additional victims of the fire in Crans-Montana. This was one of the worst tragedies in recent Swiss History. The Valais Police said that among the newly identified individuals were 10?Swiss citizens, 2 Italians, 1 Romanian, 1 French, and 1 Turkish. The names of the individuals were not revealed. Two 15-year old Swiss women were also killed. Police said that ten of the bodies identified on Sunday were teenagers between 16 and 18 years old. Two Swiss men, aged 20 and 31 and a French citizen aged 39 were also identified as dead. Police have identified 24 people who died as a result of the fire in the southern Swiss mountain resort. On Saturday night, police reported that two Swiss women aged 24 and 22 as well as two Swiss men aged 18 and 21 had been identified. The fire that destroyed the Le 'Constellation Bar is still being investigated by officials. Around 119 people were injured, many of whom suffered?severe burning. Many of them were transferred to burn units at hospitals in Europe. Police said that they are still working on identifying those who died and injured. Prosecutors said that two bartenders are being investigated for offences, including negligence-related homicide. (Reporting and editing by John Revill)
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Local authorities report that Israeli forces killed three Palestinians in Gaza
Local health officials reported that Israeli forces killed three Palestinians on Sunday in different incidents in the southern Gaza Strip city Khan Younis. Medical personnel reported that a 15 year old boy was among the dead, as well as a fisherman who died outside the areas of the enclave still under Israeli occupation, and another man shot and killed in an area east of the town. The Israeli military has not yet commented on the reported incidents. Israel has launched repeated airstrikes since the?ceasefire came into effect in October. They claim they aim to prevent attacks or destroy?militant equipment. Gaza's Health Ministry says that 420 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began. Meanwhile, militants are believed to have killed three Israeli soldiers. Israel and Hamas have exchanged blame for violating the ceasefire agreement that was brokered by U.S. president Donald Trump. Israel retained control over 53% of Gaza in 'the first phase of Trump’s plan,' which included the release of Palestinians and militants held hostage by Israel. According to Israeli statistics, the final hostage to be'returned' is that of an Israeli officer who was killed in Gaza on October 7, 2023. At the time, militants from Gaza invaded Israel and took 1,200 hostages. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel's military assault on Gaza resulted in more than 71,000 Palestinian deaths. Israel has denied any allegations of war crimes or genocide. (Reporting and editing by Nidal Al-Mughrabi)
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Maduro has left but his closest allies are still in power
Donald Trump praised the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as "stunning and powerful". But it is unclear who will be running this oil-rich nation. Trump claimed on Saturday that Delcy Rodrguez, a member of a powerful cabal that controls the government of Venezuela, was sworn in following Maduro's detention. He also said that she had spoken to U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio. This led to speculations that she might take over. In Venezuela, Rodriguez is deemed the 'acting President' in Maduro’s absence. The country's highest court has ordered that she assume this role on Saturday evening. Rodriguez, flanked on television by her brother, the president of the National Assembly Jorge Rodriguez, the Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and the Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, said shortly after Trump made his remarks that Maduro was Venezuela's sole leader. The group that shares power with Maduro appears to be staying together for the time being. Trump said that he would not work with Maria Corina Machado - the opposition leader and Nobel Prize-winning Maria Corina Machado - who is widely regarded as Maduro’s most credible rival if she did not have any support in the country. International observers claim that despite Maduro’s government's claims of victory, Machado’s stand-in candidate has won in a landslide. CIVILIAN-MILITARY POWER BALANCE Since more than a century, the real power in Venezuela is held by a few senior officials. Analysts and government officials claim that the system is based on a vast network of loyalists who are backed by security organs. In the inner circle there is a balance between civilians and military. Each member has his or her own patronage network and interests. Currently, Rodriguez and her brother are the civil side. Padrino, Cabello and other military representatives represent the civilian side. According to interviews conducted with former and current U.S. government officials, Venezuelan military analysts, U.S. military experts, and security consultants for Venezuela's opposition, this power structure makes it more difficult to dismantle Venezuela's present government than to remove Maduro. "You can remove any number of pieces from the Venezuelan government, but you would need multiple actors working at different levels in order to make a difference," said an ex-U.S. official who was involved in criminal investigations. Cabello is a big question mark, as he exerts influence on the military and civilian counterintelligence agencies of the country, who conduct extensive domestic espionage. Jose Garcia, Venezuelan military strategist, said that the focus was now on Diosdado Cabello. Because he is the most violent, ideological and unpredictable element in the Venezuelan regime. Both SEBIN (the civilian agency) and DGCIM (the military intelligence service) were found guilty of crimes against humanity by the United Nations as part a plan to suppress dissent. In interviews conducted before Maduro was captured, 11 former detainees -- including some security personnel who had been there themselves -- described the electric shocks and simulated drownings they experienced at DGCIM's black sites. A former DGCIM officer who was arrested in 2020 and charged with treason for having contact military dissidents said, "They want to make you feel like a cockroach trapped in a cage full of elephants. They want you feeling smaller." Cabello appeared on TV in recent weeks, when the United States was mounting its largest military buildup in Latin America for decades. He ordered the DGCIM "to go and get the terrorists," and warned "whoever strays will be known." In a Saturday appearance on state television, he repeated his rhetoric while wearing a flak-jacket and helmet, and surrounded with heavily armed "guards". Cabello is also closely linked to pro-government militias. This includes groups of motorcycle-riding, armed civilians called colectivos. GENERALS CONTROL KEY AREAS Cabello, former military officer, and major player in socialist party, has a significant influence on a "meaningful" fraction of Venezuela's armed forces. This is despite the fact that Venezuela's military was formally led by Defense Minister Padrino more than 10 years ago. Venezuela has 2,000 generals, admirals and other military officers. This is more than twice the number of the United States. Senior officers and retired officers are in charge of food distribution, raw materials, and the PDVSA state oil company, while dozens more generals serve on private firm boards. Defectors, current and former U.S. Investigators, and others say that military officials benefit from illicit trade beyond contracts. According to documents shared by an opposition security advisor with the U.S. Military and seen by, commanders close Cabello and Padrino have been assigned to key brigades near Venezuela's border and industrial hubs. While strategically important, the brigades are also located?on major smuggling route. A lawyer who represented a senior Venezuelan leader said that "there are between 20 and 50 officers who must leave the Venezuelan army, possibly even more," to remove this regime. Some may be thinking about jumping ship. The lawyer stated that around a dozen ex-officials and current generals reached out to the U.S. after Maduro was captured, hoping to make a deal by offering intelligence for safe passage and immunity. The lawyer stated that Cabello's close friends said he wasn't interested in a deal at the moment.
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Maduro has left but it is unclear who will be running Venezuela
Donald Trump praised the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as "stunning and powerful". But it is unclear who will be running this oil-rich nation. Trump claimed on Saturday that Vice President Delcy Rodrguez, a member of the cabal that controls the government in Venezuela, was sworn into office after Maduro’s arrest. He also said that she had spoken to U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio and that this led to speculations that she would be taking the reins. According to Venezuela's constitution Rodriguez will assume the role of acting president in the absence of Maduro. The country's highest court has ordered that she take on the role as late Saturday night. Rodriguez appeared on Venezuelan state television shortly after Trump made his remarks. She was flanked by her sister, Jorge Rodriguez, head of Venezuela's National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, and Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Defense Minister. They all said that Maduro is Venezuela's sole president. The group that shares power with Maduro appears to be staying together for the time being. Trump said that he would not work with Maria Corina Machado - the opposition leader and Nobel Prize-winning Maria Corina Machado - who is widely regarded as Maduro’s most credible rival if she did not have any support in the country. International observers claim that despite Maduro’s government's claims of victory, Machado's stand-in candidate has won in a landslide. CIVILIAN-MILITARY POWER BALANCE Since more than a century, the real power in Venezuela is held by a few senior officials. Analysts and government officials claim that the system is based on a vast network of loyalists who are backed by security organs and corruption. In the inner circle there is a balance between civilians and military. Each member has his or her own patronage network and interests. Rodriguez and her brother currently represent the civilian side. Padrino, Cabello and other military personnel represent the civilian side. According to interviews conducted with former and current U.S. government officials, Venezuelan military analysts, U.S. military experts, and security consultants for Venezuela's opposition, this power structure makes it more difficult to dismantle Venezuela's present government than to remove Maduro. "You can remove any number of pieces from the Venezuelan government, but you would need multiple actors on different levels in order to make a difference," said a former U.S. Official involved in criminal investigations. Cabello is a big question mark. He exerts influence on the military and civil?counterintelligence agencies of the country, which are involved in widespread domestic espionage. Jose Garcia, Venezuelan military strategist, said that the focus was now on Diosdado Cabello. Because he is the most violent, ideological and unpredictable element in the Venezuelan regime. Both SEBIN (the civilian agency) and DGCIM (the military intelligence service) were found guilty of crimes against humanity by the United Nations as part a plan to suppress dissent. In interviews conducted before Maduro was captured, 11 former detainees -- including some security personnel who had been there themselves -- described the electric shocks and simulated drownings they experienced at DGCIM's black sites. A former DGCIM officer who had contact with military dissidents was arrested in 2020 and charged with treason. Cabello appeared on TV in recent weeks to order the DGCIM "to go and get the terrorists", and warn "whoever strays we will know". This was as the United States began its largest military buildup in Latin America for decades. In a Saturday appearance on state television, he repeated his rhetoric while wearing a flak-jacket and helmet, and surrounded with heavily armed guards. Cabello has also been closely linked with pro-government groups, including motorcycle-riding civilians armed on the streets known as colectivos. GENERALS CONTROL KEY AREAS Cabello, former military officer, and major player in socialist party, has influence on a "meaningful" fraction of Venezuela's armed forces despite the fact that Venezuela's military is formally led by Defense Minister Padrino since more than 10 years. Venezuela has 2,000 generals, admirals and other military officers. This is more than twice the number of the United States. Senior officers and retired officers are in charge of food distribution, raw materials, and the PDVSA state oil company, while dozens more generals serve on private firm boards. Defectors, current and former U.S. Investigators, and others say that military officials benefit from illicit trade beyond contracts. According to documents shared by an opposition security advisor with the U.S. Military and seen by, commanders close Cabello and Padrino have been assigned to key brigades near Venezuela's border and industrial hubs. While tactically important to the brigades, they also lie on major smuggling routes. A lawyer who represented a senior Venezuelan leader said that "there are between 20 and 50 officers who must leave the Venezuelan army, possibly even more," to remove this regime. Some may be thinking about jumping ship. The lawyer stated that approximately a dozen former and current officials had reached out to the U.S. after Maduro was captured, in order to make a deal by providing intelligence for safe passage and immunity. The lawyer stated that Cabello's close friends said he wasn't interested in negotiating a deal at this time.
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Investors and economists respond to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US
After months of accusing Maduro of drug trafficking and unlegitimacy, the United States announced that it had attacked Venezuela on Saturday and captured its longtime President Nicolas Maduro, marking a dramatic increase in geopolitical pressures. In a Truth Social posting, Donald Trump said: "The United States of America successfully conducted a large-scale attack against Venezuela and its president, Nicolas Maduro. He and his wife were captured and flew out of the country." Washington hasn't intervened in Latin America in this way since 1989, when it invaded Panama to remove military leader Manuel Noriega over similar accusations. Trump said in a later press conference held at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was working on the details. Trump has also said that he will come to the aid if the security forces fire on protesters in Iran. This comes after days of unrest in Iran which has resulted in several deaths and is the greatest internal threat for the Iranian authorities since years. The OPEC+ group, which includes Venezuela and Russia as well, will meet on Sunday to discuss crude oil output. Here are some comments from investors and economists: JAMIE COX, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUPS, RICHMOND (VIRGINIA): "The market's reaction is likely to be muted. We?might receive some market-moving news tomorrow at the OPEC Meeting." The drillers and (shares of) Big Oil are likely to be bid up as speculation builds about the benefits of rebuilding Venezuela's?oil sector." HELIMA CROFT, HEAD OF GLOBAL COMMODITY STRATEGY AND MENA RESEARCH, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK: The U.S.'s track record of regime change and nation building is not unambiguous. BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX MANAGEMENT BROOKFIELD WISCONSIN This was not a question of if, but when. From an investment perspective, it could unlock massive amounts of oil over time. This could serve as a warning for the Iranian leadership, and possibly even Russia, regarding the president's ability and willingness to effect change. When conflict begins, markets can swing from a risk-off to a risk-on mode. Oil markets may be the only ones to react, given how quickly the situation unfolded. "There have been many forecasts about a glut of oil on the market. This will only add to that." MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH ECONOMIST, 'SALTMARSH ECONOMICS', LONDON The events remind us that geopolitical issues continue to dominate headlines and influence the markets. The markets have to deal with a much higher level of headline risk now than under previous U.S. administrations. administrations." TINA FORDHAM is the founder and geopolitical strategist at FORDHAM Global Foresight, London: "I'm expecting a sense of almost a boon, even though the history of postauthoritarian transitions has been bumpy and nonlinear." The American record in the Southern Hemisphere has also been patchy. There's a lot to be optimistic about in a post Maduro, post Chavez Venezuela. I think the reality will be more complicated. "I think that (for) the Monday opening, this will fuel animal spirits, as well as (the possibility of) change in Iran." "We have seen periodic protests in Iran, the regime is unpopular since a long time. This time it is gaining momentum. "These are two markets, the energy-producing and consumer markets that were previously off limits for international investors. They could now be opened up."
France demands EU restricts CO2 emissions price, document shows
A government document seen showed that France had revived its calls for the European Union (EU) to restrict prices on its carbon market. It did this by fixing a “corridor” to limit volatile price fluctuations.
The EU's emissions trading system, the main policy for CO2-reduction in the EU, requires industrial and power producers to purchase a permit per tonne CO2 that they emit.
The scheme provides a financial incentive for people to reduce their pollution and generates revenue that can be used towards projects that cut CO2. However, it has been criticized by many countries, including Poland. Poland has claimed that financial speculators drive volatile market prices.
France is raising concerns about the carbon price and will suggest to EU ministers at a meeting behind closed doors on Thursday that they need to intervene to stabilize the price.
According to a French government document, seen by the Observer, the EU should "establish a ETS price range defined in line with the Union's emissions reduction target, and review the functioning market stability reserve to rectify its imperfections".
Price corridors would restrict price movement to the range of the minimum and maximum prices.
In a statement to reporters in Brussels on Tuesday, French Climate Minister Agnes Pannier Runacher stated that the EU must give companies "long-term price signals so they can anticipate and adapt".
France will be seeking support from other countries, including the Czech Republic, on Thursday.
A spokesperson for the European Commission declined to comment on this French demand. The EU will not review its ETS policy before 2026.
On Thursday, benchmark EU carbon prices traded at 70 euros per tonne CO2, reflecting the decreases in gas price in recent months.
The ETS price had broken 80 euros/t earlier in the year but has not yet returned to its highs of over 100 euros/t, seen in 2023.
Analysts predict that prices will rise by over 100 euros per ton at the end of this decade, as the supply of caron permits tightens. (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett)
(source: Reuters)