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Dollar and shares tumble as Trump tariffs cause recession fears
The stock market limped into the weekend on Friday. The dollar was headed for its worst month-end in a while, and gold flirted near a record high as investors worried that U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs could tip the global economic system into recession. Asian shares have struggled to recover the heavy losses of Thursday's session. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.85%. This is a continuation of its 2.8% decline from last Thursday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.26% on thin trading, as markets in China Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for the holiday. Overnight, the S&P 500 lost $2.4 trillion, which is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus outbreak on March 16, 2020. Other Wall Street indexes also saw sharp drops. Investors rushed to safety assets after Trump announced Washington's highest trade barriers in over 100 years on Wednesday. David Bahnsen is the chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group. He said that if tariffs remain unchanged, a recession in Q2 or Q3 is possible as well as a bear market. The question is whether President Trump wants to take these policies off the table if we experience a stock market bear market. We think Trump will pivot and focus on companies making significant investments in America, but it is unclear if that would change the market sentiment. U.S. Stock Futures stabilized during the early Asian session. Nasdaq futures rose 0.05% while S&P500 futures declined 0.06%. In response to the increased fears of a global economic recession, especially in the United States of America, traders have stepped up their bets on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. They believe that policymakers will have to ease up more aggressively in order to boost growth in the largest economy in the world. Fed funds futures point to a roughly 96 basis point reduction by December. This was closer to 70 bps just before Trump announced his tariffs on Wednesday. David Doyle, Macquarie Group's head of economics, said that central banks were not equipped to handle stagflation because the effects of lower growth and higher inflation push policy in opposite directions. This means that a stronger core inflation will likely limit the extent of the Fed's policy response due to the headwinds for growth created." Investors will be watching for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. They are interested in his assessment of the U.S. economic situation and the outlook on policy following Trump's latest tariff salvo. The dollar rose 0.09% to 146.23 yen on the foreign exchange markets, after falling 2.2% the previous day, its steepest drop in over two years. The euro remained at $1.1043 following a 1.9% increase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc was last at $0.8591 after also gaining 2.6% on that day. The dollar was at 102.04 against a basket. This is a new six-month low. The U.S. Dollar has been weakening this year due to a combination of heavy long positions built up at the end of last year and the renewed focus on U.S. economic growth risks, which have accompanied the tariff talks for weeks. Bond prices have also soared as investors flee to safe assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield, which had fallen by 14 basis points in the previous session, was little changed last week at 4.0436%. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices. Spot gold, meanwhile, was nearing a record high of $3,112,81 per ounce and on course for a fifth consecutive weekly gain as concerns about the impact Trump's tariffs would have on the global economic system boosted its appeal as a safe-haven metal. Brent crude futures were down 0.13% to $70.05 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped 0.15% at $66.85 a barrel.
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Mexico's 'cool-headed approach' to Trump's Tariffs has paid off
Mexico's "coolheaded" approach towards U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff offense has paid off with preferential treatment and a strong working relationship with Trump's trade team this week, Mexico's deputy economic secretary said on Thursday. Luis Rosendo Gutierrez said that the undersecretary of international trade for Mexico, Luis Rosendo Gutierrez stated in an interview, that Mexican officials would meet with U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week to discuss U.S. Tariffs on Auto Imports, Steel and Aluminum, and their state. The U.S., Mexico and Canada Agreement (which has been in place for nearly five years) will also be reviewed. Gutierrez stated that "the instruction from President Claudia Sheinbaum is to work closely with the United States Government looking for fair and preferential treatments, and be cool-headed in doing so." "I think this strategy was the best. "To be close, constructive and to make proposals to the United States." Mexico and Canada largely avoided Trump's 10% global baseline tariff on Wednesday, as well as the steeper "reciprocal" tariffs for many trading partners. Mexico still faces a 25% tariff on fentanyl, but the exemption for USMCA compliant goods has been extended indefinitely. If the fentanyl issue is resolved, these tariffs will fall to 12%. Mexico is still subject to separate 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts, but without U.S. content. And 25% duties on steel imports. Mexico, unlike Canada, has not taken retaliatory actions against U.S. imports as part of the trade dispute. Instead, it prefers to engage in a more constructive dialogue. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures to about $25 billion of U.S. imported goods. Gutierrez stated, "We would love to see these tariffs reduced." "We need to negotiate in order to try and improve conditions not only for Mexico but also for the United States. This idea will be complementary to our economies." He said that at the meetings next week, Mexican officials will bring up USMCA letters that were agreed upon by Trump's previous administration. These side letters granted Mexico and Canada generous duty-free auto import quotas in case Section 232 tariffs on automobiles are imposed. Trump's administration does not plan to honor its commitments. (Reporting and editing by Sandra Maler, Chris Reese and David Lawder)
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Prince William of the UK takes his Earthshot Prize on a trip to Brazil
Prince William of Britain announced on Friday, in the presence of celebrities and soccer players, that he will take his annual award ceremony for a multi-million dollar prize for environmental protection to Brazil this coming year. In 2020, the heir to the throne announced the Earthshot Prize with the goal of making significant progress towards solving environmental problems in a decade. The "moonshot project" of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy, which led to 1969's lunar landing, is a nod to this award, which seeks to find innovative solutions to climate change and other environmental issues. Five winners will receive 1 million pounds ($1.3million) each for their projects. The awards ceremony for this year will take place shortly before the UN Climate Summit COP30, which is also taking place in Brazil in Nov. William announced in a video that accompanied the announcement, "I am pleased to announce that we will be in Brazil by 2025." "We need to be optimistic now more than ever. I think Brazil is the perfect example of that. I can't even believe we have reached half-way in 10 years." The previous award ceremonies were held in London and Boston. They were supported by philanthropists and global organisations. The Earthshot video also featured the actress Cate Blankhett, the model Heidi Klum and Brazil's most-capped soccer player Cafu. Beckham stated, "I am so, so excited about (Brazil), where nature and culture are intertwined." (Reporting and editing by William James; Michael Holden)
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Elliott says Phillips 66 shares could reach $200 if there are changes
Elliott Investment Management stated on Thursday that Phillips 66 stock could almost double to $200 if it sold or spun off its midstream businesses, and focused more on refining. The activist investor who owns a stake of $2.5 billion in the company has also reduced the number to four directors that it intends to nominate for the board. Previously, the number was seven. Phillips 66, in a letter to shareholders published in a regulatory filing on Thursday, wrote: "With resolute action and decisive actions, Phillips 66 will deliver much greater returns to its shareholders than they have in the past decade." The hedge fund said that "sweeping changes" are also needed to the company’s structure, operations and board. Elliott nominated 7 director candidates for the board at the beginning of March, but had planned to reduce that number to 4, according to a person with knowledge in the matter. Investors will vote for directors on the 21st of May unless both sides come to an agreement prior. Candidates include former ConocoPhillips executives Sigmund and Brian Coffman; Michael Heim, founder of midstream operator Targa Resources, and Stacy Nieuwoudt. Nieuwoudt was a former energy consultant at Citadel. Elliott stated that new independent directors were needed to oversee management better and to persuade BP to sell or spin off its midstream business in order to concentrate on refining. The company has also been criticized for its governance in which not all directors are elected annually. The company refused to comment. Phillips 66's shares closed at $107.18, down 13.6% after a widespread sell-off on Wall Street. The company now has a $43.7 billion market value. Elliott reiterated his long-held opinion that the midstream business should be spun off or sold. The letter also suggested that retail operations in Europe and its interest in CPChem (a joint venture between Chevron and CPChem) should be sold. Elliott is fighting Phillips 66 for the second time after pushing for strategic improvements late in 2023. The hedge fund approved the appointment of Robert Pease as a director to the company's board in early 2024. The tensions between the activist investor and the director have now escalated after Pease, in a letter sent to shareholders last Thursday, defended the performance of the company and referred to Elliott's actions as "inconsistent" and "peculiar." The hedge fund wants to replace him by the candidates that it nominated in this year. In a letter sent to its shareholders on Thursday, Elliott said that it was confused after Pease failed to follow the best governance practices he had promised the hedge fund. It said that it had been patient with Phillips 66, and only approached the company anew after failing to see "demonstrable improvements." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Vallari Srivastava, both in New York; editing by Shrey Biswas and Jamie Freed
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Dollar falls amid Trump tariffs, as fears of recession fuel US stock market decline
The dollar fell on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs caused investors to flee for safe havens like bonds and yen. S&P 500 companies have lost $2.4 trillion combined in market value. This is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus pandemic began on March 16, 2019. Nasdaq composite index led declines Wall Street ended the day with a 5.97% decline, its largest daily drop since March 2020. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted their largest daily percentage drops since June 2020. The new 10% baseline tariff on imported products and the retaliatory tariffs that Trump imposed on dozens countries with unfair trade barriers shook traders. Investors are concerned that a full-blown dispute over trade could lead to a global economic slowdown, and even inflation. The latest round of U.S. tariffs has hit a world economy still recovering from the inflation spike after the pandemic and dealing with geopolitical tensions. Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel, Charlottesville, Virginia, said: "Markets plunged today. I view it as an almost complete reset of how investors will think going forward." The market is lowering expectations for revenue and earnings in the U.S. and around the world. The market reflects reduced growth, decreased earnings, and reduced revenue. Apple shares fell by 9.2% due to the tariffs imposed on China, where the company does most of its manufacturing. Amazon.com fell 9%, Microsoft dropped 2.4%, while Nvidia dropped 7.8%. The S&P 500 Technology index dropped 6.9%. S&P 500's energy sector fell 7.5% with oil prices dropping more than 6% in a single day. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s Fear Gauge, has risen to 30,02, its highest level since August 5, 2020. The Dow dropped 1,679.39, or 3.98% to 40,545.93. The S&P 500 fell 274.45, or 4.84% to 5,396.52 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1,050.44 or 5.97% to 16,550.61. MSCI's global stock index fell 28.47, or 3.41% to 807.64. This was its largest daily percentage drop since June 2022. U.S. dollar Also, the dollar weakened dramatically. The dollar dropped 1.95% to 146.445 Japanese yen and fell 2.35% to the Swiss franc. RECIPROCAL LEVY The 27-country EU block in Europe now faces a reciprocal 20% levy. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 2.57%. Trump's tariffs were particularly harsh on Asia. China received a reciprocal tariff of 34%, Japan was hit by 24%, South Korea with 25%, and Vietnam with 46%. Nigel Green is the CEO of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm. He said: "This is what you do when you claim to supercharge the economic engine of the world." The rush to buy ultra-safe government securities that guarantee a steady income has driven down U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States fell 14.6 basis points, to 4,049%. It had previously fallen to 4.004%. This was its lowest level since November 25. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note is on course for its largest daily decline since August 2. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone fell, with Germany's 10-year bond yield, which is the benchmark for the region, reaching its lowest level since March 4. If tariffs cause recessions, the central banks of the world will likely lower interest rates. This is good for bonds. Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they could be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a moment "once in a life time" which could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1%-1.5% this year. Oil prices Dropped After Trump announced his new trade tariffs, OPEC+ agreed on a surprise production increase. Brent futures ended at $70.14 per barrel, down by $4.81 or 6.42%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures ended at $66.95 per barrel, down by $4.76 or 6.64%. Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce but then lost steam. Last, spot gold fell 0.85% to $3,106.99 per ounce.
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Exxon says higher gas and oil prices will boost profits in Q1
Exxon Mobil said on Thursday that the higher prices of crude oil, natural gas and oil refining will boost its first-quarter profits by $900 million over the previous quarter. Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. energy company, gets most of its operating profits from oil and gas production. Its earnings snapshot is closely monitored for clues as to how the industry will do when companies report quarterly results in the next few weeks. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $74.98 per barrel in the first quarter. This was up 1.3% compared to the previous quarter but down by 9% compared to a year earlier. U.S. Natural Gas prices increased 30% from the fourth quarter, due to a higher demand caused by a colder winter in the U.S. In a SEC filing, the company stated that higher oil refining margins would also boost earnings from $300 million to $700 millions compared to fourth quarter. According to estimates compiled LSEG by LSEG analysts expect Exxon will post an adjusted profit per share of $1.70 in the first three months, up from the $1.67 in the previous quarter. Exxon announced that it would announce its first-quarter results on May 2, 2018. The snapshot of earnings covers a turbulent first quarter, during which the Trump administration in the United States announced tariffs against energy imports from Canada or Mexico and then reversed them. In March, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced that it would increase oil production for the first since 2022. Exxon's earnings for the fourth quarter were $7.39 billion and the earnings for the first quarter last year were $8.22 billion. Exxon shares rose slightly in extended trading after closing 5.3% lower, tracking sharp drops in crude prices. This was after OPEC+ agreed on a surprise rise in production a day after Trump's announcement of new import tariffs. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava from Bengaluru, and Sheila Dang from Houston; editing by Shreya biswas and Jamie Freed
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The US offers billions in Congo mineral investment after tariffs
President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa revealed during a Thursday visit that the United States was in talks with Congo to invest billions in the mineral-rich country and to end a conflict that is raging there. The Democratic Republic of Congo has huge reserves of cobalt and lithium, among other minerals. It has been fighting Rwandan-backed M23 Rebels, who have taken over large areas of its territory in this year. The U.S., which on Wednesday sent shockwaves across the world by announcing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, said last month that it is open to exploring critical minerals partnerships with Congo after a Congolese senator contacted U.S. officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal. You have heard of a mineral agreement. After meeting Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, U.S. Senior Advisor Massad Boulos stated that the U.S. had reviewed the Congo proposal and "the president and I agreed on a way forward for its future development". On Thursday, the details of any possible deal or Congo's offer were not made public. The minerals of Congo, which are used to make mobile phones and electric vehicles, are currently controlled by China and Chinese mining companies. Boulos said that U.S. firms will be involved. Rest assured that American companies will operate transparently, and stimulate local economies. "These are multi-billion dollar investments," he stated. Joseph Bangakya is a Congolese MP and the president of a Congo - U.S. friendship group. He said that members were preparing legislation to improve the business climate in Central Africa. He said that achieving a trade deal with the United States was essential. Boulos said that the U.S. wanted to help bring peace to the east, where M23 has taken over two of eastern Congo's largest cities and thousands have died. He said, "We want to have a lasting peace which affirms the territorial and sovereign integrity of the DRC." "There is no economic prosperity without safety." (Written by Edward McAllister, edited by Mark Heinrich and Portia crowe)
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Canada's response to US tariffs
Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures against U.S. car tariffs. He imposed a 25% tax on vehicles imported from America that do not comply with the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Carney, the man who succeeded Justin Trudeau last month as Prime Minister, stated that new tariffs will not apply to auto components and won't affect vehicle content coming from Mexico. Carney said that the new tariffs, which are estimated at C$8 billion, before a remission procedure for tariff relief will be paid directly to autoworkers and other affected parties. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, imposed tariffs of 25% on March 6 on all goods that were not in compliance with USMCA. On March 12, he imposed tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. A 25% import tax was implemented on autos on Thursday. He spared Canada global tariffs. Here are the retaliatory actions that Canada has already taken. First, Trudeau responded to Trump's initial tariffs by imposing 25% tariffs on C$30 Billion ($20.92 Billion) worth of goods imported from the U.S. annually on March 6. The C$30billion was part of a broader retaliation strategy that targeted C$155billion worth of U.S. goods imports, although the remaining C$125billion has been delayed. The first round of retaliation includes 1,256 items, including orange juice, peanutbutter, wine, spirits and beer, coffee and other beverages, as well as apparel, footwear and motorcycles. The value of imported products is C$3.5 billion for cosmetics and skin care, C$3.4 billion for appliances and household goods, C$3 billion for pulp and paper, and C$1.8 billion in plastics. Steel and aluminum tariffs will be imposed by Canada on March 13, 2025. The additional C$29,8 billion in imports from the U.S. will receive a 25% tariff. The tariffs are expected to stay in place until U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada are eliminated. Tariffs on steel and aluminum include a variety of products, including candles, glues and umbrellas, as well as kitchenware, gold and platinum jewellery, and other items. Trudeau said Canada was also considering non-tariff retaliatory actions, which could be related to vital minerals, energy procurement or other partnerships. Carney responded on March 25, when asked if nontariff measures like export controls or export taxation were on the table. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that all U.S. companies would be prohibited from participating in government contracts. Ontario has canceled its C$100m contract with Trump's ally Elon Musk and Starlink. Canada has frozen Musk's Tesla rebate payments and barred the electric vehicle maker from participating in future EV rebates. Toronto has stopped offering financial incentives to Tesla owners who purchase vehicles as taxis or ride-sharing services due to trade tensions with America.
Unique REPORT-Is climate change lighting a fuse under Iceland's volcanoes?
T oxic sulphurous gas, carrying the telltale reek of rotten eggs, wafted through vents in the high walls of Iceland's Viti crater, while carbon dioxide bubbled to the surface of the milky blue crater lake. Veils of steam wreathed the landscape of loose rock in eerie halflight.
Through this prohibiting surface-- Viti is derived from the Icelandic for hell-- Michelle Parks, a volcanologist with the Icelandic Meteorological Office, selected her method towards the water's edge one day last August. With a screen strapped to her hip to warn her if the gases reached harmful levels, she stooped to submerge a temperature probe in the lake-- 26.4 degrees Celsius (79.5 degrees Fahrenheit), constant with recent readings.
That was assuring, a minimum of for the time being. The crater was formed when Askja, a volcano in Vatnajokull National forest in Iceland's central highlands, uncorked in an explosive eruption in 1875. Askja's last eruption, in 1961, was milder, and for decades after, the volcano was quiet. But in 2021, Parks and other scientists keeping tabs on it were shocked to find that in simply a few months, the volcano had actually quickly expanded, uplifting by 11 centimetres (4.3 inches). This phenomenon, called inflation, takes place when lava or pressurised gases build up under a volcano, pressing the ground upwards and outwards.
In the three years since, Askja's bloat has reached about 80 cm (32 inches). That uplift, scientists approximate, is the outcome of 44 million cubic metres (1.6 billion cubic feet) of magma flowing into the existing reservoir around three km (2 miles). below the surface area.
Volcanologists have actually established a correlation between lava. buildup under a volcano and subsequent eruption. But they do not. understand precisely just how much lava is required to assist trip an eruption. That is why Parks and her associates are closely keeping an eye on the. temperature level and acidity of Viti's crater lake. A jump in either,. suggesting that more gases are pressing in from below, would. suggest the volcano is moving closer to an eruption. So far,. those metrics have stayed stable, but the researchers viewing. Askja do not take that for approved.
An eruption could be catastrophic, though smaller sized ones are. a lot more most likely. On the scale volcanologists utilize to determine the. size of explosive eruptions, Askja is capable of one equivalent. to that of Mount St. Helens in the U.S. state of Washington in. 1980, although its eruptive design would differ. That eruption,. which stimulated the Australia-born Parks' long-lasting enthusiasm for. volcanoes, released a force equivalent to 25,000 Hiroshima-type. atomic bombs.
The goal of the volcano observatory at the Icelandic. Meteorological Office is to keep track of the country's volcanoes for. modifications in activity, like those now observed at Askja, assisting. to protect the country's nearly 400,000 people and the hordes. of foreign tourists who check out every year to take pleasure in Iceland's. world-renowned geothermal attractions.
Nevertheless, the team's work has taken on more comprehensive significance. In 2015, Parks and colleagues with the University of Iceland. gotten government financing for a pioneering research task. throughout 12 organizations to check a theory that could have dire. implications not just for Iceland, but for every person on the. world: Whether the rapid retreat of glaciers as an outcome of. human-caused environment change will set off increased volcanic. activity.
The fundamental process underpinning the concept is simple. The. significant weight of glaciers and ice sheets can tamp down. volcanoes. When the ice retreats, the down pressure on the. planet's thin outer crust and much thicker underlying mantle. eases, permitting the ground to rebound. This change in pressure. spurs dynamic forces below volcanoes to produce more magma and. modify its motion, affecting eruptions.
Iceland is basically one of the very best places worldwide. to study this ... because we have both volcanism and glaciers,. Parks stated. At the end of the day, what we're aiming for with. this task is a much larger image. It's the future of. volcanic eruptions. How large can they be? ... And what remains in shop. for us in the future, not just in Iceland however for the rest of. Europe and possibly farther afield.
UNCORKING CATACLYSM
What researchers already understand of Iceland's eruptive history. supports the theory.
When the thick glaciers and ice caps that had covered the. North Atlantic island during the last significant Glacial epoch receded. between about 15,000 and 10,000 years back, underlying volcanoes. responded with fury. In 2002, scientists determined modifications in. Iceland's volcanic activity with time by evaluating the chemical. structure of lava rock samples. They found that eruption rates. rose an approximated 30 to 50 times during and quickly after the. ice loss compared to the preceding Ice Age and current times.
It was likely a catastrophic situation, with a ludicrous. amount of eruptions, Parks said, as rivers of lava improved the. island and ash rained into surrounding seas. Askja, too,. signed up a significant explosive eruption throughout this time.
When again, researchers state, the elements required to set off. another surge in eruptions are converging. Glaciers now cover. simply 10% of Iceland, however that ice still weighs on over half. the country's 34 active volcanic systems, and it is quickly. melting as international temperature levels climb. In the previous 130 years,. Iceland's glaciers have actually lost about 16% of their volume, with. half of that in just the past 3 years. Researchers anticipate. approximately half of the staying volume will be passed this. century's end.
Already, the magma chambers underneath Iceland might be. responding to the loss of ice, and not just those straight under. glaciers. Askja, which has been free of ice for 10,000 years,. and much of Iceland are rebounding due to the fact that pressure changes from. glacial retreat affects big parts of the Earth's crust and. mantle.
Over the last 3 years, magma has actually been produced below. Iceland at a rate 2 to 3 times what it would have been without. the ice loss, according to preliminary modelling results from. Parks' project shared exclusively with Reuters. More magma is. can be found in below Iceland, and we simply do not require it, Parks. said. We have actually got enough.
Researchers very first theorised in the 1970s that melting ice. may impact volcanic eruptions. However just recently have they. started to comprehend the scale of the potential risk. Four. years ago, volcanologists compiled the initially detailed. global database of volcanoes under ice or within five km (three. miles) of it, releasing their findings in the journal Global. and Planetary Change. They discovered that some 245 active or. potentially active volcanoes around the globe met the criteria,. from the Andes to The United States and Canada's Waterfall Mountains and Alaska,. to Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula and Antarctica.
The exact same research study likewise found that about 160 million people live. within 100 km (62 miles) of at least one of those volcanoes and. that 20,000 individuals are within the immediate area. Numbers. like that underscore the hazard if glacial melt were to press. more volcanoes to pop off, releasing deadly floods and mud. circulations and spewing huge clouds of ash and lethal gases into the. atmosphere.
The impacts would not end there. Eruptions abundant in carbon. dioxide, a greenhouse gas, could exacerbate international warming,. outlasting the sulphur aerosols in the environment that can cause. initial durations of cooling. And the volcanoes now understood to sit. under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might help speed ice melt. into the ocean, raising sea levels.
Evidence suggests that what occurred in Iceland after the. last Glacial epoch was duplicated to a lower extent all over the world. Eruptions were between 2 and 6 times greater internationally between. 12,000 and 7,000 years ago owing to more regular eruptions in. areas that were losing their ice cover, according to a 2009. research study in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
A VIOLENT HISTORY
Iceland is uniquely primed for frequent volcanic eruptions. because of its location at the juncture of 2 tectonic plates. that are pulling apart over an upwelling of anomalously hot. material in the Earth's mantle. Many smaller sized eruptions have. little effect beyond their immediate vicinity, though they are. still able to put on incredible shows. Others can have deadly. effects far beyond Iceland.
When Laki, southwest of Askja, erupted in 1783-84, the. fluorine it expelled polluted the island's plants and water. sources, killing majority of Iceland's livestock. This. farming collapse resulted in a famine that eliminated around a fifth. of the island's human population, while the resulting haze of. sulphurous fog that later on reached Europe may have added to. the deaths of thousands more people. And as far as Africa. and Asia, the eruption's results compromised monsoons, starting. more scarcities.
Near the southern coast under a little ice cap lies Katla,. considered one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes under. ice. Katla has actually racked up more than 20 eruptions because the Middle. Ages, balancing one every 60 years, and it is overdue for. another, having last erupted in 1918. Throughout that eruption, heat. putting from Katla's caldera rapidly melted the ice atop the. volcano, releasing a torrent of water higher than the integrated. discharges of the Amazon, Mississippi, and Yangtze rivers at its. peak. And, like Laki, Katla has explosive potential.
The time for Katla to emerge is coming close ... It is high. time for European federal governments and airline authorities all over. Europe and the world to begin planning for the ultimate Katla. eruption, then-Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson informed. BBC News in 2010, following the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull. The ash cloud from that eruption caused EUR1.3 billion (US$ 1.4. billion) in losses from cancelled flights throughout a six-day. European airspace restriction, making it the world's costliest eruption. in the last century.
The Icelandic federal government has emergency plans in place for a. Katla-style eruption and works with regional police districts to. produce near-term threat evaluations for other volcanoes.
However the government has actually also tapped its intense structure to. its benefit, utilizing it to heat homes and companies and draw. big-spending travelers to renewing geothermal baths. After. the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the Icelandic federal government made. volcanoes a pillar of a now multibillion-dollar tourist. industry. Keepsake stores in the capital, Reykjavik, offer lava. rocks from a recent eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula for. 2,000 Icelandic krona (US$ 14) apiece.
SEEING YOUR PALS VANISH
Like many Icelanders, 29-year-old Iris Ragnarsdottir. Pedersen and her daddy, 62-year-old Ragnar Frank Kristjansson,. have an intimate understanding of the extremes of their land of ice. and fire. Along the south coast in Svinafell, Ragnarsdottir. Pedersen, a mountain guide, lives with her hubby and their. Icelandic sheepdog, Blika. Her father, a retired national forest. manager, has a small turf-roofed summer house next door. Overlooking them is a large cliff, beyond which lies. Vatnajokull ice cap and, under it, the volcano Oraefajokull. After Oraefajokull emerged in 1362, sailors reported seaborne. pumice floating in such masses that ships could hardly make. their way through it.
Father and child both remember signing up with fellow Icelanders. throughout the years to admire the glowing fountains and rivers of. lava produced by eruptions. They also recognize with the. impact of environment modification.
For 25 years, Kristjansson has actually volunteered as a glacier. monitor with the Icelandic Glaciological Society, tracking the. retreat of 2 glaciers that flow out of the Vatnajokull ice. cap, the nation's biggest. Every fall, he treks for hours to. among the glaciers, Skeidararjokull, to take measurements that. he sends to the Icelandic Meteorological Office. It's a lonely. walk toward the glacier-- 15 km in the black sand, he stated.
Kristjansson utilized to be able to stride right approximately the edge. of Skeidararjokull. However as it has rapidly diminished over the past. years, a lake has actually formed at the foot of the glacier, obstructing. his way. He now has to utilize unique binoculars to determine the. range. This year, he said, one point along the glacier's edge. showed a retreat of 300 metres (984 feet), which is the greatest. he has actually taped.
Ragnarsdottir Pedersen has actually experienced the retreat from year. to year on treks to the glaciers with her dad and by simply. looking out her windows. It's simply devastating to see, she. stated. I have actually in some cases said to people, 'It resembles watching your. buddies vanish.'
As a child, she understood Oraefajokull prowled under the. Vatnajokull ice cap. But it only ended up being a concern when the. volcano started rumbling in 2017, just as she and her hubby. started planning to build their home near it. When she felt the. earthquakes and caught the smell of sulphur from the rivers, she. said, You're like, 'Oh yeah, we actually have this powerful,. rather hazardous volcano right above our home.'
Ultimately, she and her partner weren't worried enough to. cancel the relocation, having faith that researchers would closely. keep track of the volcano for any risk. People have resided in. Svinafell considering that the settlement of Iceland, she said.
A CLINICAL CAPITAL
Oraefajokull is one of 6 active volcanoes covered by the. Vatnajokull ice cap. As Vatnajokull has actually thinned and retreated,. some of the volcanoes below it, as well as close-by Askja, have. become agitated. Oraefajokull has relaxed considering that its 2017. awakening. Grimsvotn and Bardarbunga, 2 volcanoes under the. ice cap that are being assessed in Parks' task, have together. notched 5 eruptions in the previous thirty years, compared to just. one under the ice cap in the preceding 40 years.
Parks and her clinical associates said it's too early to. conclude that the increased activity under Vatnajokull is linked. to rapid loss of ice cover. Other scientists have actually developed. that clusters of eruptions can occur in natural cycles under the. ice cap. But to determine whether climate modification might also be. playing a part, they will have to collect more data on ice. retreat and lava generation and feed it into complicated computer system. designs.
Due to the fact that of its continuing unrest, Askja is the main draw for. scientists, who flock to its huge calderas when Iceland's. brief summer allows for field research study. Like most of Iceland's. volcanoes, Askja does not conform to the stereotypical cone. shape of volcanoes such as Japan's iconic Mount Fuji. Instead,. fissures snake across a vast Mars-like landscape carpeted. with lava rocks and pockmarked with craters from past eruptions.
To reach the centrepiece of the Askja system, an. 11-square-km (four sq miles) caldera lake called Oskjuvatn,. researchers journey hours across the highlands in Super Jeeps and. Land Rovers balanced on 35-inch tires. Oskjuvatn was formed in. an explosive 1875 eruption that shot out big volumes of airy. pumice, much of it still covering the location around Askja, with. fist-sized portions tossed about by strong winds.
Above the lava tank near the western side of the lake. is where Askja has actually been inflating fastest, a lure for. scientists. On a go to in August, Reuters experienced a group of. three scientists from the University of Geneva at the lake's. edge, filling equipment into an inflatable rowboat. Their objective: to. measure carbon dioxide concentrations in the lake and collect. water samples from its inmost points.
The information is challenging to get. The numbingly cold and typically. tempestuous waters are dangerous. Landslides on the caldera's. high scarp can launch tsunamis huge enough to overload neighbouring. Viti crater. In 1907, 2 German researchers set off onto the. lake and were never seen again. The Geneva team's boat would be. the first on the lake in nearly a decade. The University of. Geneva scientists dressed in thick thermal equipment, simply in. case.
One of them, geologist Nicolas Oestreicher, stated the work. was necessary offered both Askja's explosive capabilities and the. increased activity around the lake. If it's a huge explosion,. then it's truly hazardous for the people around here, the. travelers, Oestreicher stated.
His group, which later returned securely from their boat journey,. was among numerous from Iceland and abroad that day racing to. find out what was going on at Askja. University of Iceland. geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson, co-head with Parks of the. government-funded job, existed, too. Today might be the. wealthiest day in all of Askja's history in regards to the variety of. researchers here, he said.
Sigmundsson has actually been pertaining to the volcano almost every year. considering that 1990 and he knows the terrain well. Carrying a. surveying tripod, he clambered with sure-footed expertise across. beds of jagged, crunchy lava, searching for round metal markers. that researchers anchored in the area in the 1960s and 1970s. These would inform him where to set up his equipment to examine how. much Askja had actually grown or moved over the past year.
The measurements Sigmundsson and his coworkers took in. August showed 12 cm (five inches) of uplift at Askja given that the. previous year, confirming that the volcano was still in a state. of discontent and could erupt at any time.
FROM THE ANDES TO ANTARCTICA
Regardless of what they ultimately find, the interplay. between volcanoes and ice will remain a chief concern among. volcanologists. The most fatal eruption in the last 100 years. was that of Nevado del Ruiz in the Colombian Andes in 1985. Some. 23,000 people were eliminated after a superheated amalgam of ash,. lava pieces and gases called a pyroclastic circulation melted snow. and ice near the volcano's top, sending enormous rivers of mud. and debris hurrying down the volcano's flanks.
Any eruption where there is a possibility of (snow or ice). communicating with the hot stuff contributes to the aspects of threat,. said Ben Edwards, a volcanologist at Dickinson College in. Pennsylvania and lead author of the 2020 study that produced the. database of ice-clad volcanoes.
Edwards and his fellow researchers prepared a list of the. world's most unsafe volcanoes that lie under glaciers, based. on the volume of ice on or near each one, the frequency of past. eruptions, and the population living within 30 km (19 miles). 7 of the top 10, they found, are in the Andes. The most. hazardous is Villarrica in Chile, with more than 35,000 individuals. residing in its shadow. Edwards remains in the middle of a five-year. research study looking for to comprehend how Villarrica reacted to glacial. retreat at the end of the last Ice Age.
The small number of research studies to date of the interaction. in between pulling away ice and volcanoes in other parts of the. world, researchers stated, mean the research underway in Iceland. will help develop a design template for what could occur elsewhere. It's not a best comparison: The underlying plate tectonics in. Iceland differ from those in the Andes. Magma reservoirs also. lie much deeper in the crust in the Andes than in Iceland,. Edwards said.
We don't have an excellent physical understanding of all the. procedures that control melting (of rock into magma) much deeper in. the mantle, said David Pyle, a volcanologist at the University. of Oxford who studies Chilean volcanoes. Whereas in Iceland,. the conceptual model is better established because in a manner. it's geologically simpler.
Antarctica, where both ice and volcanoes are abundant, has. become an area of issue in the last few years. While a handful of. volcanoes were understood to reside under the huge West Antarctic Ice. Sheet, in 2017 scientists reported discovering another 91 possible. volcanoes hidden there.
How many of them are active or have the potential to awaken. is difficult to establish. There are probably two or 3. which are certainly active. However there might be as many as 100 or. 150, said John Smellie, a former senior volcanologist with the. British Antarctic Survey who has actually finished 27 field seasons on. the continent and won 2 Polar Medals from the British royals.
If environment modification begins a new age of eruptions in the. coming years, Smellie said, it would hasten the already fast. loss of the continent's ice cover due to climate modification, adding. to rising water level and overloading the world's big seaside. cities. Antarctica is shedding more than 150 billion metric heaps. of ice a year, according to satellite measurements, and. scientists think that as oceans continue to warm, the West. Antarctic Ice Sheet is quick approaching a tipping point beyond. which the melt can not be stopped.
If an eruption includes even a small amount to global sea. level, it will worsen impacts currently happening due to. environment modification, Smellie said.
Under the worst-case situation, rapid melting of the West. Antarctic Ice Sheet would alleviate the pressure on buried volcanoes,. setting off eruptions. This in turn would speed up ice loss,. awakening much more volcanoes that melt more ice, and so on,. resulting in international catastrophe. Nevertheless, Smellie stated, that is. not likely to take place because thousands of nearly simultaneous. eruptions would be needed to melt even a small percentage of the. ice sheet.
IN THE RISK ZONE
Couple of individuals make their home near Askja. The closest village. lies about 60 km (37 miles) away. But some 13,000 individuals visit. the volcano throughout the summer season, when Askja is more. available, according to data from the national park authority. Frequently, tourists climb down into Viti crater to swim in the. Instagram-worthy lake, despite signs that warn them about acidic. water, which can irritate skin, and falling rock.
After a week of field work at and around Askja last August,. the volcanologists gathered park rangers and local police and. lodging personnel in a close-by ranger hut one night for a security. instruction on the state of the volcano.
Parks hovered over her laptop computer displaying a series of charts. and charts on her latest findings that revealed Askja was. still pumping up. Sigmundsson, standing in the doorway, described. to the rangers and police that forecasting eruptions is an. inaccurate science; they may not always have weeks of. seismic activity as a caution of an imminent eruption. The time. scale can be quite brief, he said. Hours, possibly ... You would. wish to have a plan if something occurs to rapidly evacuate the. caldera.
Among the greatest threats to tourists is a phreatic. explosion-- a blast of hot steam, ash and rocks that includes. little warning. That's what formed Viti crater nearly 150 years. earlier. In 2019, a phreatic explosion at New Zealand's White Island. volcano killed 22 people who were checking out the island at the. time.
At Sigmundsson's words, the room fell quiet. One of the. police officers then piped up with a plan: We just have to hope. that it blows up in the middle of the winter season.
(source: Reuters)