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Trump team listens to pitches on Myanmar's rare Earths
Four people who were directly involved in the discussions confirmed that the Trump administration had heard competing proposals to change the longstanding U.S. foreign policy towards Myanmar. The goal was to divert its huge supplies of rare earth mineral reserves away from China, the strategic rival. Experts say that there are many logistical challenges and nothing has been decided. If the proposals are implemented, Washington will need to make a deal with ethnic rebels who control most of Myanmar's heavy rare earth deposits. One proposal calls for talks with Myanmar's ruling junta in order to reach a peace agreement with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rebels. Another proposes that the U.S. work directly with KIA, without engaging with the junta. Washington avoided direct talks after the military overthrew the democratically-elected government of Myanmar in 2021. Sources said that a U.S. lobbyist for business, a former advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi and a few outside experts had proposed the ideas to the administration officials in indirect discussions with the KIA. Conversations that have never been reported before Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals which are used to produce magnets, which turn energy into motion. The so-called heavy rare Earths are used in the construction of fighter jets, as well as other high-performance weapons. The U.S. is dependent on imports of heavy rare Earths, as it produces very little. The Trump administration is focused on securing the supply of these minerals in order to compete with China. According to the International Energy Agency, China is responsible for almost 90% of global processing capability. The United States would make a radical change if they engaged the junta, especially given the sanctions Washington has placed on military leaders as well as the violence perpetrated against the Rohingya minority that Washington describes in its report of genocide and crimes committed against humanity. The Trump administration lifted sanctions on several junta ally last week. However, U.S. officials stated that this did not reflect a change in U.S. policies toward Myanmar. People familiar with the matter say that the ideas presented to the U.S. government include the following: easing President Donald Trump's threat of 40% tariffs against Myanmar; reversing sanctions against the junta, as well as its allies; working with India to process heavy rare earths exports from Myanmar and appointing an envoy for these tasks. A person in Vance’s office confirmed that some of these suggestions were discussed at a meeting held on July 17 in Vice President JD Vance’s offices. Adam Castillo was present, who is the former director of the American Chamber of Commerce of Myanmar and runs a security company in the country. Vance's advisers on Asian trade and affairs were present. Vance was not present, according to the source. Castillo said he suggested that U.S. officials play a role as peace broker in Myanmar. He also urged Washington, to take a leaf out of China's book by first brokering a bi-lateral self-governance agreement between the Myanmar military KIA. The ruling junta of Myanmar and the KIA have not responded to a comment request. Vance's Office declined to comment on Castillo’s visit to White House. However, a person familiar with the matter said that the Trump Administration has been reviewing its policy on Myanmar (also known as Burma) since Trump's inauguration in January and had considered direct discussions with junta regarding trade and tariffs. The White House refused to comment. REVIEWING MYANMAR POLITICS People familiar with the discussions described them as exploratory, in their early stages, and added that the talks could result in Trump not changing his strategy, given his reluctance to intervene in foreign conflicts or in Myanmar's complicated crisis. When asked about the meeting on July 17, a senior official in the administration said, "The officials met as a favor to the American business community to support President Trump’s efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit of $579 million with Burma." Castillo, who described Myanmar's rare-earth deposits as China's 'golden goose', said he told U.S. official that key ethnic armed group - especially the KIA – were tired of being exploited and wanted to collaborate with the United States. Heavy rare earths are produced in large quantities by mines in Myanmar's Kachin Region and exported to China. He said he repeatedly urged Washington officials to pursue a deal that included cooperation with U.S. Partners in the Quad Grouping - India - to process resources and eventually supply heavy rare earths to the United States. The United States, India, Australia and Japan are all part of the so-called Quad Grouping. The Indian Ministry of Mines has not responded to an email seeking comment. Unknown to the public, an Indian government official said that he did not know if Trump's administration had informed India of any such plan. However, he stressed that it would take several more years for such a move to become a reality, as infrastructure would need to be constructed to process rare earths. One pitch was in line with former president Joe Biden's Myanmar policy. Sean Turnell is an Australian economist who was a former advisor to Suu Kyi's government, which the junta overthrew in 2021. He said that his proposal for rare earths was meant to encourage the Trump Administration to continue to support Myanmar's democratic movements. Turnell met with officials of the State Department, White House National Security Council, and Congress during a trip to Washington in the early part of this year. He urged them to continue their support for the opposition. He said that KIA, for example, could provide rare earths to the U.S. In recent months there have been several discussions on rare earths between U.S. government officials and the Kachin Rebel Group through intermediaries, according to a source with knowledge of these talks. These discussions were not previously reported. OBSTACLES Since the coup, Myanmar is wracked by civil war. The junta, along with its allies, has been pushed from much of the borderlands of the country, including the rare-earths mining belt, which the KIA currently controls. According to a source in the rare earths sector, U.S. officials contacted the Kachin rare Earths mining industry around three months after the Kachin tookover of the Chipwe Pangwa mining belt. A person said that a new major supply chain for rare earths, which would involve moving minerals from remote, mountainous Kachin State to India and beyond, might not be feasible. Bertil Lintner is a Swedish author and expert in Kachin State. He said that the idea of China stealing rare earths out of Myanmar was "totally insane" due to the mountainous terrain. Lintner stated that there was only one way to get the rare earths out of these mines on the Chinese border to India. "And the Chinese will certainly stop it." The junta, for its part appears eager to engage Washington after years in isolation. Trump, as part of his trade offensive against the world, threatened to impose new tariffs on Myanmar exports bound for the United States this month. He did so personally in a letter signed by Min Aung Hlaing, chief of the junta. Min Aung Hlaing, in response, praised Trump's "strong leadership", while also asking for lower rates and a lifting of sanctions. He stated that he would be willing to send a negotiation team to Washington if necessary. Senior Trump administration officials claimed that the decision to lift certain sanctions had nothing to do with the general's email.
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In 2024, Vitol bought back shares for $10.6 billion from shareholders.
The company's filings show that the global commodity trading company Vitol Group will pay $10.6 billion in 2024 to its employees who hold shares of the company through an annual share purchase scheme. Vitol paid $10.6 billion for buybacks in 2023, up from $6.4 billion. This was the highest amount ever. In 2024, buybacks increased as earnings continued to rise despite a drop in profits from their previous highs. Vitol's net profit was between $8 and 8.5 billion dollars last year. This is down from $15 billion and $13 billion the previous years. Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor are global commodity traders that have made lower profits in the 2024 financial year. This is because markets stabilized after a turbulent period in 2022-2023 when trading houses had made record earnings due to Europe's Energy Crisis and Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Vitol's record earnings have been used to fund its share buybacks and invest in assets upstream and downstream around the world. Vitol purchased the Italian refinery company Saras in 2024. The company has also diversified its portfolio from its traditional oil-centric focus, expanding its activities into the natural gas, coal, and metals trading businesses. According to the earnings report, the total equity attributable by company owners in the financial year 2024 was $30.6 billion. This is down from $32.4 million in 2023. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Robert Harvey is the reporter)
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Caribbean trade with Africa is booming as the traditional routes are eroding
The secretary-general of the Caribbean bloc, who spoke on Monday in light of the looming uncertainty surrounding its traditional trading partners, said that Caribbean nations were looking to "decisively expand" opportunities for trade with Africa. Why it's important In a time of increasing protectionism, stronger trade ties would be a major economic shift for a region that relies heavily upon trade with the U.S.A., Canada, and Europe. Washington imposed an initial 10% tariff in April on almost all of its trading partners. It has been levying its power to influence domestic Caribbean policies on issues such as Cuban medical services and citizen-by-investment programs. KEY QUOTE Carla Barnett, Secretary-General of Caribbean Community (CARICOM), said that "we must open the doors to greater trade and investment between our regions" at the opening ceremony of the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum held in Grenada. "CARICOM's trade with the Continent needs to grow beyond its current levels, which are less than 3%. This is especially true given the uncertainty surrounding trade with our traditional partners." By the Numbers According to the latest data of the Observatory of Economic Complexity, CARICOM's biggest trading partner is the United States. According to OEC figures, the U.S. purchased a quarter ($38.8 billion) of the $33.4 billion in goods shipped by the bloc throughout 2023 and sold 39% of the $43.4 billion of goods imported. CONTEXT Caribbean nations are particularly vulnerable to global shocks like inflation and pandemics due to their dependence on tourism, imported fuel and food, and their exposure climate-related disasters. Barnett noted that the region had already worked with Africa in unsuccessful campaigns to demand slavery reparations and compensation for climate change from wealthy nations. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Sarah Morland)
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Angola fuel hike protests turn violent, local media report
Angola’s capital, Luanda, saw protests over the hike in diesel prices turn violent on Monday. Local media reported that looting and clashes between police and protesters led to several deaths and arrests. In a bid to reduce costly subsidies and strengthen public finances, the oil-producing nation in Southern Africa raised diesel prices by a third this month. The minibus taxi associations increased fares up to 50%, and began a 3-day strike on Monday. On its website, the Novo Jornal reported that three people were killed during the protests. One of them was a policeman. Novo Jornal reported that the police fired tear gas, smoke grenades and shots in the air, all to try and restore calm. In a press release, the police reported that shops had been looted in Luanda. The statement stated that police made arrests, but did not provide the number. Angola’s finance minister said in October that fuel subsides amounted to 4% of the country’s economic output in last year. The government will continue to remove them in stages. The protests were also deadly when the price of petrol was raised in 2023.
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President of Peru says that he is considering approving $6 billion in mining projects
Dina Boluarte, the president of Peru, said that her government is looking at approving 134 projects for mining exploration and exploitation worth an estimated $6 billion. Boluarte stated in an address before Congress that she expects the formal small-scale mine sector to generate over $5 billion in sales annually by the end this year, and that $4.7 Billion in formal projects are expected to have begun construction by 2026. Officials from Peru, third largest copper producer in the world, are in discussions with informal miners. They launched protests at the end of June, which blocked a major transport corridor used by MMG and Glencore. After over 50,000 miners informally removed from the formalization scheme by the government, the tensions escalated. The government now only wants to bring 31,000 of them into compliance with the regulations before the end this year. Boluarte stated that the government is working to establish a private mining funds which would provide small miners with better access to financing. (Reporting and writing by Marco Aquino, Sarah Morland and Natalia Siniawski).
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Chile will ask the U.S. for copper to be included in U.S. - Chile trade agreement
In an interview on Monday with the local radio station Duna, Mario Marcel, Chile's Finance Minister, said that he expects U.S. tariffs on copper to be discussed in Washington as part of broader U.S. Trade talks this week. Marcel said that Chile would request any tariffs be included in a larger trade agreement with the United States. The Trump administration announced that it would impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. Chile is a major supplier of red metal to the United States and also of refined copper, though it sends a much larger volume to China. Monday is the beginning of a third round between Chilean officials, and the U.S. trade representative's office. Marcel stated that he hoped the discussions he and his colleagues will have in Washington today would also include copper. Because it would be unhelpful for us to have an agreement that excluded more than half our exports, like copper and wood. The minister responded that they would include any tariffs in a larger trade agreement. "We would like it to be included in the broader commercial discussion with Chile, not handled separately. It's an important issue," said the minister. Marcel pointed out that other countries had included exemptions and carving-outs in trade agreements. Fabian Cambero reported the story. (Writing by Daina Beth Solon; Editing by Natalia Siniawski.
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Orange Polska maintains full-year guidance, lifts Q2 net profit
Orange Polska announced a 18% increase in its second-quarter net income to 272 millions zlotys (74 million dollars) compared with the same period last year. The analysts polled expected the net profit at 272 millions zlotys. The company stated that the increase in profit was due to the sale of Orange Energia, its energy business, to the Finnish group Fortum. This transaction took place earlier this year. In a statement, CFO Jacek Kubinicki explained that the sales were part of an effort to focus on its core businesses. Why it's important Orange Polska, with a market capitalisation of 11.72 billion zlotys (approximately $9.96 billion zlotys), is the biggest listed telecoms in Poland. CONTEXT Orange Polska announced its strategy for the years 2025-2028 in March. The company set a dividend floor of 0.53 zlotys per share and projected organic cash flows of at least 1.2 bn zlotys a year by 2028. By the Numbers The Polish division of France's Orange saw its revenue in the second quarter 2025 rise 1%, to 3,16 billion zlotys. EBITDA (after leases) rose 4%, to 891 millions zlotys. KEY QUOTES In a recent press release, CEO Liudmila Climov said that "customer bases for all of our telecom services have maintained a healthy growth rate as we cope well with the competitive environment." She added, "In the second part of the year we will maintain strong commercial momentum through a variety of attractive offers that we roll out for our customers in advance of peak seasons."
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Gunmen kill 17 people in a mass shooting in a small town bar in Ecuador
The Attorney General's Office of Ecuador said that gunmen attacked a bar on the coast of Guayas Province in Ecuador, killing at least 17 and injuring 11 others. It was investigating the attack. According to the attorney's office, more than 40 pieces ballistic evidence have been recovered on site. Local media shared images of bodies on the ground covered with white sheets. The attack on Sunday took place in El Empalme in Ecuador, about 160 km north of Guayaquil. This area is considered one of the most dangerous in Ecuador, as organized criminals fight for control over key smuggling routes. At the beginning of last year, Daniel Noboa, President of Ecuador declared that there was an "internal conflict". However, despite measures taken by the state to curb violence in Guayas and other areas. Noboa may have claimed a 15% drop in violent deaths, but the interior ministry says the actual number is higher. again surged In the first half of 2025, 461 will increase by 47 percent. Last month, Ecuador’s National Assembly approved a law reform that gives the government greater legal authority to combat armed groups as well as dismantle drug trafficking networks which fuel their operations. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Morland; Alejandra Valencia)
Unique REPORT-Is climate change lighting a fuse under Iceland's volcanoes?
T oxic sulphurous gas, carrying the telltale reek of rotten eggs, wafted through vents in the high walls of Iceland's Viti crater, while carbon dioxide bubbled to the surface of the milky blue crater lake. Veils of steam wreathed the landscape of loose rock in eerie halflight.
Through this prohibiting surface-- Viti is derived from the Icelandic for hell-- Michelle Parks, a volcanologist with the Icelandic Meteorological Office, selected her method towards the water's edge one day last August. With a screen strapped to her hip to warn her if the gases reached harmful levels, she stooped to submerge a temperature probe in the lake-- 26.4 degrees Celsius (79.5 degrees Fahrenheit), constant with recent readings.
That was assuring, a minimum of for the time being. The crater was formed when Askja, a volcano in Vatnajokull National forest in Iceland's central highlands, uncorked in an explosive eruption in 1875. Askja's last eruption, in 1961, was milder, and for decades after, the volcano was quiet. But in 2021, Parks and other scientists keeping tabs on it were shocked to find that in simply a few months, the volcano had actually quickly expanded, uplifting by 11 centimetres (4.3 inches). This phenomenon, called inflation, takes place when lava or pressurised gases build up under a volcano, pressing the ground upwards and outwards.
In the three years since, Askja's bloat has reached about 80 cm (32 inches). That uplift, scientists approximate, is the outcome of 44 million cubic metres (1.6 billion cubic feet) of magma flowing into the existing reservoir around three km (2 miles). below the surface area.
Volcanologists have actually established a correlation between lava. buildup under a volcano and subsequent eruption. But they do not. understand precisely just how much lava is required to assist trip an eruption. That is why Parks and her associates are closely keeping an eye on the. temperature level and acidity of Viti's crater lake. A jump in either,. suggesting that more gases are pressing in from below, would. suggest the volcano is moving closer to an eruption. So far,. those metrics have stayed stable, but the researchers viewing. Askja do not take that for approved.
An eruption could be catastrophic, though smaller sized ones are. a lot more most likely. On the scale volcanologists utilize to determine the. size of explosive eruptions, Askja is capable of one equivalent. to that of Mount St. Helens in the U.S. state of Washington in. 1980, although its eruptive design would differ. That eruption,. which stimulated the Australia-born Parks' long-lasting enthusiasm for. volcanoes, released a force equivalent to 25,000 Hiroshima-type. atomic bombs.
The goal of the volcano observatory at the Icelandic. Meteorological Office is to keep track of the country's volcanoes for. modifications in activity, like those now observed at Askja, assisting. to protect the country's nearly 400,000 people and the hordes. of foreign tourists who check out every year to take pleasure in Iceland's. world-renowned geothermal attractions.
Nevertheless, the team's work has taken on more comprehensive significance. In 2015, Parks and colleagues with the University of Iceland. gotten government financing for a pioneering research task. throughout 12 organizations to check a theory that could have dire. implications not just for Iceland, but for every person on the. world: Whether the rapid retreat of glaciers as an outcome of. human-caused environment change will set off increased volcanic. activity.
The fundamental process underpinning the concept is simple. The. significant weight of glaciers and ice sheets can tamp down. volcanoes. When the ice retreats, the down pressure on the. planet's thin outer crust and much thicker underlying mantle. eases, permitting the ground to rebound. This change in pressure. spurs dynamic forces below volcanoes to produce more magma and. modify its motion, affecting eruptions.
Iceland is basically one of the very best places worldwide. to study this ... because we have both volcanism and glaciers,. Parks stated. At the end of the day, what we're aiming for with. this task is a much larger image. It's the future of. volcanic eruptions. How large can they be? ... And what remains in shop. for us in the future, not just in Iceland however for the rest of. Europe and possibly farther afield.
UNCORKING CATACLYSM
What researchers already understand of Iceland's eruptive history. supports the theory.
When the thick glaciers and ice caps that had covered the. North Atlantic island during the last significant Glacial epoch receded. between about 15,000 and 10,000 years back, underlying volcanoes. responded with fury. In 2002, scientists determined modifications in. Iceland's volcanic activity with time by evaluating the chemical. structure of lava rock samples. They found that eruption rates. rose an approximated 30 to 50 times during and quickly after the. ice loss compared to the preceding Ice Age and current times.
It was likely a catastrophic situation, with a ludicrous. amount of eruptions, Parks said, as rivers of lava improved the. island and ash rained into surrounding seas. Askja, too,. signed up a significant explosive eruption throughout this time.
When again, researchers state, the elements required to set off. another surge in eruptions are converging. Glaciers now cover. simply 10% of Iceland, however that ice still weighs on over half. the country's 34 active volcanic systems, and it is quickly. melting as international temperature levels climb. In the previous 130 years,. Iceland's glaciers have actually lost about 16% of their volume, with. half of that in just the past 3 years. Researchers anticipate. approximately half of the staying volume will be passed this. century's end.
Already, the magma chambers underneath Iceland might be. responding to the loss of ice, and not just those straight under. glaciers. Askja, which has been free of ice for 10,000 years,. and much of Iceland are rebounding due to the fact that pressure changes from. glacial retreat affects big parts of the Earth's crust and. mantle.
Over the last 3 years, magma has actually been produced below. Iceland at a rate 2 to 3 times what it would have been without. the ice loss, according to preliminary modelling results from. Parks' project shared exclusively with Reuters. More magma is. can be found in below Iceland, and we simply do not require it, Parks. said. We have actually got enough.
Researchers very first theorised in the 1970s that melting ice. may impact volcanic eruptions. However just recently have they. started to comprehend the scale of the potential risk. Four. years ago, volcanologists compiled the initially detailed. global database of volcanoes under ice or within five km (three. miles) of it, releasing their findings in the journal Global. and Planetary Change. They discovered that some 245 active or. potentially active volcanoes around the globe met the criteria,. from the Andes to The United States and Canada's Waterfall Mountains and Alaska,. to Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula and Antarctica.
The exact same research study likewise found that about 160 million people live. within 100 km (62 miles) of at least one of those volcanoes and. that 20,000 individuals are within the immediate area. Numbers. like that underscore the hazard if glacial melt were to press. more volcanoes to pop off, releasing deadly floods and mud. circulations and spewing huge clouds of ash and lethal gases into the. atmosphere.
The impacts would not end there. Eruptions abundant in carbon. dioxide, a greenhouse gas, could exacerbate international warming,. outlasting the sulphur aerosols in the environment that can cause. initial durations of cooling. And the volcanoes now understood to sit. under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might help speed ice melt. into the ocean, raising sea levels.
Evidence suggests that what occurred in Iceland after the. last Glacial epoch was duplicated to a lower extent all over the world. Eruptions were between 2 and 6 times greater internationally between. 12,000 and 7,000 years ago owing to more regular eruptions in. areas that were losing their ice cover, according to a 2009. research study in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
A VIOLENT HISTORY
Iceland is uniquely primed for frequent volcanic eruptions. because of its location at the juncture of 2 tectonic plates. that are pulling apart over an upwelling of anomalously hot. material in the Earth's mantle. Many smaller sized eruptions have. little effect beyond their immediate vicinity, though they are. still able to put on incredible shows. Others can have deadly. effects far beyond Iceland.
When Laki, southwest of Askja, erupted in 1783-84, the. fluorine it expelled polluted the island's plants and water. sources, killing majority of Iceland's livestock. This. farming collapse resulted in a famine that eliminated around a fifth. of the island's human population, while the resulting haze of. sulphurous fog that later on reached Europe may have added to. the deaths of thousands more people. And as far as Africa. and Asia, the eruption's results compromised monsoons, starting. more scarcities.
Near the southern coast under a little ice cap lies Katla,. considered one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes under. ice. Katla has actually racked up more than 20 eruptions because the Middle. Ages, balancing one every 60 years, and it is overdue for. another, having last erupted in 1918. Throughout that eruption, heat. putting from Katla's caldera rapidly melted the ice atop the. volcano, releasing a torrent of water higher than the integrated. discharges of the Amazon, Mississippi, and Yangtze rivers at its. peak. And, like Laki, Katla has explosive potential.
The time for Katla to emerge is coming close ... It is high. time for European federal governments and airline authorities all over. Europe and the world to begin planning for the ultimate Katla. eruption, then-Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson informed. BBC News in 2010, following the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull. The ash cloud from that eruption caused EUR1.3 billion (US$ 1.4. billion) in losses from cancelled flights throughout a six-day. European airspace restriction, making it the world's costliest eruption. in the last century.
The Icelandic federal government has emergency plans in place for a. Katla-style eruption and works with regional police districts to. produce near-term threat evaluations for other volcanoes.
However the government has actually also tapped its intense structure to. its benefit, utilizing it to heat homes and companies and draw. big-spending travelers to renewing geothermal baths. After. the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the Icelandic federal government made. volcanoes a pillar of a now multibillion-dollar tourist. industry. Keepsake stores in the capital, Reykjavik, offer lava. rocks from a recent eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula for. 2,000 Icelandic krona (US$ 14) apiece.
SEEING YOUR PALS VANISH
Like many Icelanders, 29-year-old Iris Ragnarsdottir. Pedersen and her daddy, 62-year-old Ragnar Frank Kristjansson,. have an intimate understanding of the extremes of their land of ice. and fire. Along the south coast in Svinafell, Ragnarsdottir. Pedersen, a mountain guide, lives with her hubby and their. Icelandic sheepdog, Blika. Her father, a retired national forest. manager, has a small turf-roofed summer house next door. Overlooking them is a large cliff, beyond which lies. Vatnajokull ice cap and, under it, the volcano Oraefajokull. After Oraefajokull emerged in 1362, sailors reported seaborne. pumice floating in such masses that ships could hardly make. their way through it.
Father and child both remember signing up with fellow Icelanders. throughout the years to admire the glowing fountains and rivers of. lava produced by eruptions. They also recognize with the. impact of environment modification.
For 25 years, Kristjansson has actually volunteered as a glacier. monitor with the Icelandic Glaciological Society, tracking the. retreat of 2 glaciers that flow out of the Vatnajokull ice. cap, the nation's biggest. Every fall, he treks for hours to. among the glaciers, Skeidararjokull, to take measurements that. he sends to the Icelandic Meteorological Office. It's a lonely. walk toward the glacier-- 15 km in the black sand, he stated.
Kristjansson utilized to be able to stride right approximately the edge. of Skeidararjokull. However as it has rapidly diminished over the past. years, a lake has actually formed at the foot of the glacier, obstructing. his way. He now has to utilize unique binoculars to determine the. range. This year, he said, one point along the glacier's edge. showed a retreat of 300 metres (984 feet), which is the greatest. he has actually taped.
Ragnarsdottir Pedersen has actually experienced the retreat from year. to year on treks to the glaciers with her dad and by simply. looking out her windows. It's simply devastating to see, she. stated. I have actually in some cases said to people, 'It resembles watching your. buddies vanish.'
As a child, she understood Oraefajokull prowled under the. Vatnajokull ice cap. But it only ended up being a concern when the. volcano started rumbling in 2017, just as she and her hubby. started planning to build their home near it. When she felt the. earthquakes and caught the smell of sulphur from the rivers, she. said, You're like, 'Oh yeah, we actually have this powerful,. rather hazardous volcano right above our home.'
Ultimately, she and her partner weren't worried enough to. cancel the relocation, having faith that researchers would closely. keep track of the volcano for any risk. People have resided in. Svinafell considering that the settlement of Iceland, she said.
A CLINICAL CAPITAL
Oraefajokull is one of 6 active volcanoes covered by the. Vatnajokull ice cap. As Vatnajokull has actually thinned and retreated,. some of the volcanoes below it, as well as close-by Askja, have. become agitated. Oraefajokull has relaxed considering that its 2017. awakening. Grimsvotn and Bardarbunga, 2 volcanoes under the. ice cap that are being assessed in Parks' task, have together. notched 5 eruptions in the previous thirty years, compared to just. one under the ice cap in the preceding 40 years.
Parks and her clinical associates said it's too early to. conclude that the increased activity under Vatnajokull is linked. to rapid loss of ice cover. Other scientists have actually developed. that clusters of eruptions can occur in natural cycles under the. ice cap. But to determine whether climate modification might also be. playing a part, they will have to collect more data on ice. retreat and lava generation and feed it into complicated computer system. designs.
Due to the fact that of its continuing unrest, Askja is the main draw for. scientists, who flock to its huge calderas when Iceland's. brief summer allows for field research study. Like most of Iceland's. volcanoes, Askja does not conform to the stereotypical cone. shape of volcanoes such as Japan's iconic Mount Fuji. Instead,. fissures snake across a vast Mars-like landscape carpeted. with lava rocks and pockmarked with craters from past eruptions.
To reach the centrepiece of the Askja system, an. 11-square-km (four sq miles) caldera lake called Oskjuvatn,. researchers journey hours across the highlands in Super Jeeps and. Land Rovers balanced on 35-inch tires. Oskjuvatn was formed in. an explosive 1875 eruption that shot out big volumes of airy. pumice, much of it still covering the location around Askja, with. fist-sized portions tossed about by strong winds.
Above the lava tank near the western side of the lake. is where Askja has actually been inflating fastest, a lure for. scientists. On a go to in August, Reuters experienced a group of. three scientists from the University of Geneva at the lake's. edge, filling equipment into an inflatable rowboat. Their objective: to. measure carbon dioxide concentrations in the lake and collect. water samples from its inmost points.
The information is challenging to get. The numbingly cold and typically. tempestuous waters are dangerous. Landslides on the caldera's. high scarp can launch tsunamis huge enough to overload neighbouring. Viti crater. In 1907, 2 German researchers set off onto the. lake and were never seen again. The Geneva team's boat would be. the first on the lake in nearly a decade. The University of. Geneva scientists dressed in thick thermal equipment, simply in. case.
One of them, geologist Nicolas Oestreicher, stated the work. was necessary offered both Askja's explosive capabilities and the. increased activity around the lake. If it's a huge explosion,. then it's truly hazardous for the people around here, the. travelers, Oestreicher stated.
His group, which later returned securely from their boat journey,. was among numerous from Iceland and abroad that day racing to. find out what was going on at Askja. University of Iceland. geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson, co-head with Parks of the. government-funded job, existed, too. Today might be the. wealthiest day in all of Askja's history in regards to the variety of. researchers here, he said.
Sigmundsson has actually been pertaining to the volcano almost every year. considering that 1990 and he knows the terrain well. Carrying a. surveying tripod, he clambered with sure-footed expertise across. beds of jagged, crunchy lava, searching for round metal markers. that researchers anchored in the area in the 1960s and 1970s. These would inform him where to set up his equipment to examine how. much Askja had actually grown or moved over the past year.
The measurements Sigmundsson and his coworkers took in. August showed 12 cm (five inches) of uplift at Askja given that the. previous year, confirming that the volcano was still in a state. of discontent and could erupt at any time.
FROM THE ANDES TO ANTARCTICA
Regardless of what they ultimately find, the interplay. between volcanoes and ice will remain a chief concern among. volcanologists. The most fatal eruption in the last 100 years. was that of Nevado del Ruiz in the Colombian Andes in 1985. Some. 23,000 people were eliminated after a superheated amalgam of ash,. lava pieces and gases called a pyroclastic circulation melted snow. and ice near the volcano's top, sending enormous rivers of mud. and debris hurrying down the volcano's flanks.
Any eruption where there is a possibility of (snow or ice). communicating with the hot stuff contributes to the aspects of threat,. said Ben Edwards, a volcanologist at Dickinson College in. Pennsylvania and lead author of the 2020 study that produced the. database of ice-clad volcanoes.
Edwards and his fellow researchers prepared a list of the. world's most unsafe volcanoes that lie under glaciers, based. on the volume of ice on or near each one, the frequency of past. eruptions, and the population living within 30 km (19 miles). 7 of the top 10, they found, are in the Andes. The most. hazardous is Villarrica in Chile, with more than 35,000 individuals. residing in its shadow. Edwards remains in the middle of a five-year. research study looking for to comprehend how Villarrica reacted to glacial. retreat at the end of the last Ice Age.
The small number of research studies to date of the interaction. in between pulling away ice and volcanoes in other parts of the. world, researchers stated, mean the research underway in Iceland. will help develop a design template for what could occur elsewhere. It's not a best comparison: The underlying plate tectonics in. Iceland differ from those in the Andes. Magma reservoirs also. lie much deeper in the crust in the Andes than in Iceland,. Edwards said.
We don't have an excellent physical understanding of all the. procedures that control melting (of rock into magma) much deeper in. the mantle, said David Pyle, a volcanologist at the University. of Oxford who studies Chilean volcanoes. Whereas in Iceland,. the conceptual model is better established because in a manner. it's geologically simpler.
Antarctica, where both ice and volcanoes are abundant, has. become an area of issue in the last few years. While a handful of. volcanoes were understood to reside under the huge West Antarctic Ice. Sheet, in 2017 scientists reported discovering another 91 possible. volcanoes hidden there.
How many of them are active or have the potential to awaken. is difficult to establish. There are probably two or 3. which are certainly active. However there might be as many as 100 or. 150, said John Smellie, a former senior volcanologist with the. British Antarctic Survey who has actually finished 27 field seasons on. the continent and won 2 Polar Medals from the British royals.
If environment modification begins a new age of eruptions in the. coming years, Smellie said, it would hasten the already fast. loss of the continent's ice cover due to climate modification, adding. to rising water level and overloading the world's big seaside. cities. Antarctica is shedding more than 150 billion metric heaps. of ice a year, according to satellite measurements, and. scientists think that as oceans continue to warm, the West. Antarctic Ice Sheet is quick approaching a tipping point beyond. which the melt can not be stopped.
If an eruption includes even a small amount to global sea. level, it will worsen impacts currently happening due to. environment modification, Smellie said.
Under the worst-case situation, rapid melting of the West. Antarctic Ice Sheet would alleviate the pressure on buried volcanoes,. setting off eruptions. This in turn would speed up ice loss,. awakening much more volcanoes that melt more ice, and so on,. resulting in international catastrophe. Nevertheless, Smellie stated, that is. not likely to take place because thousands of nearly simultaneous. eruptions would be needed to melt even a small percentage of the. ice sheet.
IN THE RISK ZONE
Couple of individuals make their home near Askja. The closest village. lies about 60 km (37 miles) away. But some 13,000 individuals visit. the volcano throughout the summer season, when Askja is more. available, according to data from the national park authority. Frequently, tourists climb down into Viti crater to swim in the. Instagram-worthy lake, despite signs that warn them about acidic. water, which can irritate skin, and falling rock.
After a week of field work at and around Askja last August,. the volcanologists gathered park rangers and local police and. lodging personnel in a close-by ranger hut one night for a security. instruction on the state of the volcano.
Parks hovered over her laptop computer displaying a series of charts. and charts on her latest findings that revealed Askja was. still pumping up. Sigmundsson, standing in the doorway, described. to the rangers and police that forecasting eruptions is an. inaccurate science; they may not always have weeks of. seismic activity as a caution of an imminent eruption. The time. scale can be quite brief, he said. Hours, possibly ... You would. wish to have a plan if something occurs to rapidly evacuate the. caldera.
Among the greatest threats to tourists is a phreatic. explosion-- a blast of hot steam, ash and rocks that includes. little warning. That's what formed Viti crater nearly 150 years. earlier. In 2019, a phreatic explosion at New Zealand's White Island. volcano killed 22 people who were checking out the island at the. time.
At Sigmundsson's words, the room fell quiet. One of the. police officers then piped up with a plan: We just have to hope. that it blows up in the middle of the winter season.
(source: Reuters)