Floods kill 7 in Indonesia's North Maluku, some missing

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• VEGOILS - Palm up on a soft ringgit, but weaker rival oils and crudes cap gains

  Malaysian palm futures closed higher on Wednesday after the previous session?declined?. The ringgit was softer, but weaker crude oil and competing edible oils limited gains. The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery at the 'Bursa Malaysia derivatives Exchange' rose by?11 Ringgit or 0.24% to 4,557 Ringgit ($1,113.64). A Kuala Lumpur based trader stated that the market had been supported earlier by a recovery in rival soyoil and a slightly lower ringgit during the morning Asian session. The palm ringgit's currency has weakened by 0.24% against dollars, making it cheaper for buyers of foreign currencies. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.66%. Dalian's palm oil contract lost 0.59%, while the most active soyoil contract fell by 0.32%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks the price movement of its rival edible oils. Crude Oil fell by more than 1%, as the U.S. and Iran continued to negotiate a final deal that would end their war. The market was waiting for the U.S. data on stock drawdowns. Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures. A trade ministry regulation revealed that Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price at $1,090.90 per tonne for July. As part of the country's push to achieve energy independence, B50 fuel, which is a mixture of 50% palm-based and 50% conventional diesel will be available on Wednesday. Analysts say that the low oil prices and more expensive palm oil are threatening its viability. ($1 = 4.0920 ringgit) 1 Please enter the?codes between brackets to view freight rates for?Peninsula Malaysia/Sumatra from China, India, Pakistan, and Rotterdam. Double-clicking on the bracketed?codes will show terminal users the cash and futures?prices for edible oil. To move to the next page, press F12. To go back, hit F11. 1

• VEGOILS - Palm down on weaker Soyoil and the prospect of increased production, but logs a monthly gain

  Malaysian palm futures declined?on Tuesday as soft soyoil pressured the market and an anticipated increase in production pushed the price up. However, the contract still recorded a'monthly gain. The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery at Bursa Derivatives Exchange fell 39 ringgit (0.85%) to 4,549 Ringgit ($1,114.40). This month's contract saw a gain of 0.31%, ending two consecutive months of declines. Markets traded lower as a result of a 'weakness in the soybean oil markets during Asian hours. The expectation that output will rise in the next few weeks also weighed on sentiment. Dalian's palm oil contract fell by 0.55%, while the most active soyoil contract dropped by 0.14%. Soyoil prices at the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 0.33%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. Investors are looking forward to possible U.S.-Iran discussions in Doha, amid a strained ceasefire in 'the four-month old war. Palm oil is a less attractive feedstock for biodiesel due to the weaker crude oil futures. According to cargo surveyors, Malaysian palm oil exports rose from 4.7% to?11.9% in June compared with a month ago. The dollar's value against the ringgit has fallen by 0.37%, making palm commodities slightly cheaper to buyers who hold foreign currencies. Indonesian Palm Oil Association statistics show that Indonesian palm oil exports in April included 2.78 million tons of refined products, up from 1.78 million tonnes in the same period last year. ($1 = 4.0820 ringgit)

• Palm oil prices rise in Indonesia, confirming the B50 timeline and strong Malysian exports

  The price of Malaysian palm oi?futures rose Friday after Indonesia confirmed its 'B50' biodiesel program will be implemented next month as planned. This move is?likely? to boost the country?s palm oil consumption. Meanwhile, stronger?export?data for this month also boosted sentiment. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for September delivery was up 40 Ringgit or 0.88% at 4,597 Ringgit ($1,121.77 per metric ton). The price is down by 1.05% this week. Anilkumar bagani, research director of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group, said: "The 'bullish momentum' in palm oil can be attributed to confirmation of the B50 timetable and relatively stronger Malaysian palm exports so far this month." He said that the futures opened higher today after gains in Chicago Soyoil Futures overnight on Thursday, and a bullish rebound in?Dalian palm olein Futures during Asian hours. Indonesia issued a regulation to implement the?B50 mandate for biodiesel starting July 1. Retailers have a 3-month transition period to get rid of their current stocks. AmSpec Agri Malaysia reports that exports of Malaysian products containing palm oil rose by 11.1% from June 1 to 25, while Intertek Testing Services reported an increase of 10.6%. Dalian's palm oil contract has gained 1.22%, while the most active soyoil contract in Dalian rose by 0.81%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped by 0.73%. Palm oil follows the price movement of other edible oils as it competes for a market share in the global vegetable oil industry. The price of crude oil fell 2% on the Friday, and was headed for steep weekly losses due to easing concerns about supply. More stranded 'oil tankers' left the Strait of Hormuz despite a cargo ship being hit in Oman. Palm oil is less attractive as a biodiesel feedstock due to weaker crude?oil prices. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil?FCPOc3 could revisit its high of 4,710 Ringgit per metric tonne on June 23 and fall towards 4,542 ringgit.

• Malaysia will spend $10 billion on fuel subsidy in 2026. PM Says

  Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister, said that Malaysia could spend up to 40 billion ringgit (about $9.8 'billion) this year on fuel subsidies if energy prices remain high. This would be more than double their initial budget allocation. Malaysia set aside 15 billion ringgit in its budget for 2026 for fuel subsidies. Anwar, in a written parliamentary response dated Tuesday, said that the government spent about 800 million ringgit each of the two first'months' of the year to subsidize diesel and RON95 fuel. The figure then jumped up to around 5 billion ringgit between March and April, after the start of the war with iran. * The government is focusing on protecting the people, particularly those who are most affected by rising prices and cost of living. Anwar stated that the government would continue to?monitor the fiscal position? and subsidy capacity?to ensure that financial assistance can be provided sustainably.

• Oil drops the most since years, and gold, yen are also falling.

  Brent oil is on course for its biggest?quarterly decline since 2020 as traders keep tabs on the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The U.S. Dollar was expected to increase against a basket for the fourth consecutive quarter on the last day?the?second quarter. This pushed the yen down to its lowest level in 40 years as the expectations of interest rate increases in the U.S. changed dramatically. The greenback gained more than 1% against the currencies of emerging markets as a group throughout the second quarter. The Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and randomly on the energy market as the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. dwindled into a fragile truce, causing Brent oil to drop by almost 40% this quarter. The equities rally continued for the third quarter as a seemingly unstoppable boom of artificial intelligence stocks kept it going. South Korea's KOSPI was up 68%, and Taiwan's benchmark index?was up 45%. The Nasdaq composite added more than 20 percent. The MSCI All-World Index has gained more than 14% and reached a new record high in the first month of this year. This is its best performance quarterly since 2020. Emerging Markets stocks are up by 23% for the period. The STOXX 600 index in Europe, which has not had as many AI beneficiaries, as other Asian or U.S. indices, still rose nearly 10% during the third quarter. It's been rising every month since march. David Morrison is a senior market analyst with Trade Nation. He said that investors cannot see the end of this bull run. "Whenever there is a little selloff, you seem to get a new impetus to purchase." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 126.78 points or 0.25 percent to 52,309.52. The S&P 500 gained 28.81 points or 0.39% to 7,469.63, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.36 or 0.81% to 26,029.22. The MSCI index of stocks around the world rose by 5.31 points or 0.48% to 1,117.36. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.78%. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 rose by 20.66 points or 0.81%. Emerging market stocks increased 16.86 points or 0.99% to 1,723.79. Nikkei 225.36 points or 0.99% rose to 70,062.31. THE WINNING DOLLAR The dollar was the biggest winner among developed currencies this quarter, rising 1.4% versus a basket. Emerging market currencies, however, have gained 1.3% against the dollar this quarter. Investors are accumulating bullish positions in record numbers thanks to an astonishing re-pricing the U.S. rate outlook. The interest rate outlook has changed from cuts to increases due to the strength and persistence of inflationary pressures outside of energy prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates at least once by the end of this year. Earlier expectations were for rate cuts. Kevin Warsh will address the European Central Bank annual meeting in Sintra, Portugal this week. The new Federal Reserve chair is expected to speak on Wednesday. Gold's 14% drop in a quarter, the largest in over a decade, was partly due to the dollar's increase. The yen, on Tuesday, reached its lowest point in more than 40 years, trading at 162,38 to the dollar. The yen was at its weakest point in 40 years, trading around 162.38 per dollar on Tuesday. Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama issued another warning. Katayama’s comments "avoided verbal escalation which often precedes an effort to buy, and instead reiterating authorities stand ready at any time," Karl Schamotta said, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay. Schamotta noted that "the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and the Independence Day holiday on Friday -- when U.S. liquidity will?thin drastically -- could offer attractive opportunities to wrong-foot speculative positions." Brent crude futures for August, which expires on Tuesday, were unchanged on the day. The contract is on course for a third consecutive monthly decline. It has fallen about 20% in June so far and?38% over the last quarter. The September contract, which is more actively traded, was also flat. The U.S. crude oil price is on course to drop 30% in the next quarter. The UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that "I would not say the market has priced in a risk premium but previously stranded vessels have become available due to the increase of ships leaving the Gulf. This creates a temporary new wave of supply." Morgan Stanley has said that it models a global oil surplus of 4.8 millions barrels per day by 2027.

• Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.

  Asia's crude oil imports by sea?rose slightly in June, but remained near their lowest levels in over a decade due to the impact of the?Iran Conflict on shipments from Middle East. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region will receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the?20.39million bpd received in May and almost 2 million bpd more than the 18,77million bpd achieved in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28. The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict. The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still?well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks on certain ships. The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from just 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than half of the average 15.58 million barrels per day for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict. Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East will return to their pre-war level, and how long it will take. PRICES SEE SOLUTION Brent contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close from February 27, just before hostilities began. The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the heights of the conflict. Singapore?gasoil - the main component of diesel - closed at $111.15 per barrel on Monday. This is a 22% increase from the previous close on February 27, which was $91.42. Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27. As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks. How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is. The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about the safety of the Strait, causing them to restrict their movements. What China does over the next few months is another wildcard. By reducing imports dramatically, the world's largest crude oil importer has reduced the impact of restricted flows through Strait?of?Hormuz. Kpler predicts that China's seaborne landings will be only 5.80 million bpd for June, down from 6.80 million in May. This is the weakest two-month period since November 2015. The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd. China's refiners are likely to start purchasing cargoes once more, but only after August. The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high. Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect? What will happen to crude oil supply when the current surge in stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops? The crude oil market has shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in spite of the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

• Stocks soar in stellar quarter, dollar hits gold and the yen

  On Tuesday, global stocks were on track to achieve their best performance in the second quarter of six years. Meanwhile, a resurgent US dollar drove the yen down to its lowest level in four decades and was heading for a fourth consecutive quarterly increase. In the last three months the Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and 'haphazardly' as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. waned, resulting in a fragile ceasefire and a 20% drop in the price of crude oil. A dramatic shift has also occurred in the expectations of U.S. interest rate, against the backdrop of an unstoppable rise in artificial intelligence stock prices. The MSCI All-World Index has increased by almost 14% in the past three months to new highs, its best performance for the second quarter since 2020. The majority of gains are due to a fervent rally in AI, especially in Asian markets where indexes from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan registered?double-digit percent gains. The S&P500 is up 14%, and the Nasdaq has gained 20%. Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: "The theme that has largely disappeared is monetary policy support." The futures market priced further rate reductions at the start of the year. Now, that's changed. This is largely due to the current situation in Iran and the increased commodity prices. "What we take away from this is that we don't expect any more cuts by the central banks. But we also don't anticipate a new cycle of hikes." Europe's STOXX 600 index, which has fewer AI beneficiaries than many Asian and U.S. indices, rose 1.1%. It is on track to achieve a gain of 10% for the quarter, after rising every month since march. U.S. Stock Futures?were between 0.1% and 0.2 % higher, indicating a modest rise at the opening bell. THE WINNING DOLLAR The dollar was the biggest winner in the foreign exchange markets this quarter, with a gain of 1.4% against a basket major currencies. Investors are building up bullish positions in record numbers, thanks to the remarkable change in the interest rate outlook for the United States, from a cut to a hike, owing to the unexpected strength of the U.S. economic and the persistent inflationary pressures that go beyond energy prices. Dollar's increase has caused gold to fall to its biggest quarterly drop in over a decade. The yen, on the other hand, has fallen to its weakest point in forty years and traded around 162.38 to a dollar on Tuesday. The yen was at its weakest point in 40 years, trading around 162.38 per dollar on Tuesday. Traders had been alerted to the possibility of a Japanese intervention by Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama. This week, the world's leading central bankers will gather in Sintra for the annual meeting of the European Central Bank. No one will be in the spotlight more than the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh who is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Warsh's focus on inflation during his first meeting as Fed head earlier this month led traders to price in the prospect that a rate increase will be implemented by October. However, some economists think the economy is strong enough and the inflation obvious enough to warrant an increase as early as July. Isabelle Mateos y Lago is the BNP Paribas 'group chief economist. She said: "Of all of the major central bankers, Fed policymakers are probably the only one where it seems plausible that they can go in July and hike the rate to get the issue out of the system, in a sense." "That's certainly not our case, but it's possible that they'd want to move forward and?get that out of the way." Before Warsh appears, Tuesday will bring a variety of European inflation data, U.S. consumer sentiment data for June, and the JOLTS monthly hirings-and-firings report. The clock is ticking down to the U.S. jobs report on Thursday. Dhara Ranasinghe contributed additional reporting from London, Tom Westbrook reported from Singapore, and Muralikumar Anantharaman edited the story.

• Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.

  Asia's crude oil imports by sea rose slightly in June, but they remained near their lowest levels?in over a decade due to the Iran conflict which crimped Middle East shipments. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region is expected to receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the 20.39 million barrels of oil per day in May and almost 2 million more than the 18,77 million bpd received in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28. The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict. The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the full reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks against?some ships. The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than a fifth of what was averaged for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict, which was 15.58 million barrels per day. Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East can return to their pre-war level, and?if so, how long it will take. SEE SOLUTION FOR PRICES Brent futures contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close on February 27th, the day before hostilities began. The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the height of the conflict. Singapore gasoil (the building block of?diesel) ended Monday at $111.15 per barrel, up by 22% since the February 27 close price of $91.42. Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27. As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks. How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is. The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and even the United States. Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about possible attacks, causing uncertainty over the safety of the Strait. What China does over the next few months is another wildcard. By reducing imports dramatically, the world's biggest crude importer has averted the negative impact of restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler predicts that China's seaborne imports will be only 5.80 million bpd, down from 6.80 million in May, the two weakest months since November 2015. The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd. With crude prices now back where they were prior to the start of the war, China's refiners are likely to once again begin buying cargoes. However, these will not be delivered until August. The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high. Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect? What will happen to the crude supply when the current influx of stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops? The crude oil market has so far shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in the face the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

• Asian stocks set to record-breaking quarter as dollar sinks gold, yen and yen

  Asian stocks shook as they approached the end of a stellar quarter on Tuesday. A resurgent Dollar pushed the Japanese yen down to its lowest level in four decades, and was heading for a fourth consecutive quarterly rise. Japan's Nikkei is set to record a record gain of 36% in the second quarter. South Korea's chipmaker driven KOSPI fell 1% but was still on track for a record second quarter rise of more than 65%, having doubled in value year-to date. Brent crude futures are trading at $72.49 per barrel, which is the pre-war price. This is even with the current tensions in the interim ceasefire. Kerry Craig, strategist with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that the lower oil prices have reinforced their view that the global economy is growing more trend-like than the sub-trend they were thinking of two months ago. This has also contributed to the improved earnings story. In the morning of Asia, Wall Street indexes had risen overnight. Futures prices were unchanged. The dollar is expected to rise by a quarter thanks to the remarkable change in interest rate expectations for the United States, which have shifted from cuts to increases due to inflationary pressures and economic strength. The rise of the dollar has pushed gold down to its biggest quarterly drop in over a decade, while in Asia trade the yen hit a four-decade low of 162.41 for every dollar. This set traders on edge about a possible Japanese intervention. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's finance minister, said that authorities were ready to react appropriately at any moment. The dollar index has risen 1.3% in the last quarter. However, this week, the euro returned to the chart level of $1.14. Next moves will likely be determined by U.S. employment data due on Thursday, as Friday is a holiday. Also, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance on Wednesday may also influence the market. The data for the day will include the European inflation rate, U.S. consumer sentiment and job openings, as well as the European inflation rate. SELLING RECORDS RALLY Taiwan's benchmark in Asia is expected to rise by more than 40% this quarter, while other regions are unable to keep up with the semiconductor-driven markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was a notable laggard, as it limped - mostly flat -- on?Tuesday to a 7.5% quarterly drop. Foreigners have been selling all the way to the top as they rebalance their portfolios and are worried about diversification. According to BNY, South Korean stocks have lost a net $17.3 billion in the past year. Geoff Yu, BNY's macro-strategist, said: "This gap between returns and flow fits a wider pattern across Asia’s tech-heavy market: strong performance triggers rebalancing of markets and profit-taking and not new institutional buying." Investors are paying attention to the STOXX Index in Europe, which is expected to rise by 9% for the third quarter. Also, China's blue-chip CSI300, which has risen about 10% for this quarter, is gaining traction. Craig, of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that some investors are concerned about their tech exposure. "They're looking at other themes, such as renewables or defence, to diversify more in their portfolio," Craig added. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Reporting by Tom Westbrook)

• Oil and stock prices are rising as investors look to Iran. The yen is at a 40-year low against the dollar

  The global stock market index rose Monday, as investors watched the implementation of the interim peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. Oil prices also rose as tit-fortat attacks highlighted the risk of escalation. Wall Street was the biggest gainer, with technology shares recovering after last week's fallout due to concerns about AI spending. After several days of attacks in the Middle East, after an Iranian projectile struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on last week, both sides have accused each other of violating an interim ceasefire. Brent and WTI crude oil both rose on the day, but were still down sharply for the month. Recent U.S.-Iranian attacks have highlighted the fragility of this interim agreement, and expectations of an increase in energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz has injected volatility into the markets. "I think the reality is beginning to sink in. Not every barrel will come out of the Gulf within the next two weeks. You can't jam as many barrels into the Gulf to pre-war levels. Bob Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. He said that as long as the situation remains risky, boat owners run the risk of being attacked by pirates as they pass through the strait. U.S. crude climbed 1.86% to $75.52 a barrel while Brent rose 1.19% to $72.85 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 362.86 points or 0.70% to 52,238.97. The?S&P500 rose 81.02 or 1.10% to 7,435.04 while the Nasdaq Composite increased 484.31 or 1.91% to 25,781.93. MSCI's global stock index rose by?9.27 or 0.84% to 1,111.87. Richard de Chazal, William Blair's macro-analyst, said: "The scattered conflict continues. It appears to be following the established pattern where tensions are heightened into the weekend and then resolved before Monday's open." The pan-European STOXX 600 was flat, while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 broad index increased 1.87 points or 0.07%. The Nikkei 225 rose 107.23 or 0.15% to 69,468.11 while the emerging market stocks rose by 3.06 points or 0.18%. RATE HIKE WAGERING Oil prices fell sharply in recent months, but inflation measures in the U.S. jumped and expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate increase have boosted the dollar. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against other currencies) was slightly lower last week at 101.25. This is just a little below the 13-month peak it reached last week. The oil market is still rife with risk. Participants appear to be... focusing their attention on the impact of a continued recovery in crude oil flows on global balance," ING analyst's said in a Monday note. This week, the U.S.'s economy will be dominated by Thursday's June jobs report. Three consecutive ?months of stronger-than-expected payrolls have reinforced the ?Fed's hawkish shift, though any cooling in the labor market could prompt a more dovish reassessment. Investors have priced in at least one Fed rate hike this year. This is a dramatic reversal of expectations that two rate cuts would be made before the Iran War. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex's chief market strategist, said that the?labor market has accelerated. "The doves' concerns about a slowing labor market seem to be over." The Japanese yen has hit its lowest level since 1986, at 161,97 per dollar. The Bank of Japan’s 25-basis-point rate hike has not been enough to reduce the wide?interest-rate differential with the United States. This is especially true after the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance, and indicated that rates would likely remain high for longer. Gold fell 1.9%, to $4,010.32 per ounce, due to the rising dollar. The yellow metal will experience a 13% drop in the second quarter. This is its largest quarterly decline since 2013. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Harry Robertson, and Rodrigo Campos, in Singapore; Additional reporting from Karen Brettell, Georgina McCartney, and Aidan Lewis; Editing, Andrew Heavens and Mark Potter; Daniel Wallis, Aidan Lewis and Andrew Heavens)

• US futures rise as Middle East attacks stop, keeping oil prices muted

  U.S. Stock Futures rose on Monday, after the U.S. agreed to halt recent hostilities with Iran and resume talks. This helped oil prices drop after they spiked earlier due to renewed attacks between both sides. After a sell-off last week triggered by fears about AI spending, European stocks were flat. However, tech was outperforming on both sides. The STOXX 600 index in Europe was not changed, but the S&P 500 futures in the U.S. rose 0.8%. Futures on the Nasdaq, which is a tech-heavy index, rose by 1.1%. This puts the U.S. Index back on track to recover after it fell more than 4% in the previous week. The STOXX technology?index rose 1.2%. After several days of strikes, both sides have accused each other of violating an interim ceasefire after an Iranian projectile struck a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. After the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend the oil price spiked initially on Monday, but then fell to its lowest level since the conflict began. Brent crude oil was up 0.7% last week at $72.50 per barrel. This is down 22% from the previous month. Mohit Kumar said that the market could benefit from the drop in oil prices, and the impact it has on the global economy. Lower oil prices will lead to diversification of trade, and sectors that are growth-sensitive should perform better. Asian markets have pared their earlier losses. South Korea's KOSPI is down by 0.2%, and Japan's Nikkei is up 0.2%. Investors are worried that AI-related companies' valuations have risen too high after dramatic gains. However, markets were set to recover some ground on Monday. The Bank for International Settlements warned against the sustainability of the current AI investment boom, citing supply bottlenecks as well as intense competition that could lead to the same overinvestment seen during previous boom and bust cycles. WAGE WAGERS FOR RATE INCREASE The oil prices have dropped sharply over the past few weeks, but inflation measures have?risen in the U.S. The dollar has risen due to the rising odds of a rate hike. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against other currencies) was slightly lower last week at 101.25. This is just below its one-year high reached last week. The Japanese yen fell slightly to 161,80 per U.S. Dollar as fears of further intervention by Tokyo prevented the fragile currency breaking its lowest level in 40 years. Investors have priced in at least a Fed rate hike this year. This is a dramatic change from the expectations of two rate cuts before the war began. BofA's strategists expect?three increases, reflecting a more hawkish outlook that is partly influenced by?strong U.S. job growth. Gold was down by 1.3% to $4,034 an ounce, as the dollar rose. The yellow metal will experience a 13% drop in the second quarter. This is its largest quarterly decline since 2013.

• Thai family grieves for teen girl who was found dead in a suitcase by an Australian

  A 17-year old Thai girl's?body? was found in an unlocked suitcase in Pattaya. Her family said that they were devastated. An?Australian? man has since been arrested and charged with murder. Thai police said they arrested a 40-year-old Australian at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport early Saturday morning in connection with the murder in Pattaya. Pattaya is located about 150km (93miles) east of Bangkok. Simon Peter Carman is the suspect. He faces charges for murder, concealment of a corpse, moving or destroying one, and stealing a minor to use sexually. Thai police reviewed CCTV footage showing Carman entering the condominium with a?girl and then leaving hours later alone carrying a suitcase. Police posted a message on their official Facebook page saying that he had loaded the suitcase onto his motorcycle and ridden to a grassy area near an old railway line. Carman was arrested at the airport by police after they issued an arrest warrant. Carman sent a message to his victim's family in the investigation room of the police station before being transferred to Pattaya Provincial Court. I?feel sorry for what happened to her. He said, "It was beyond my control." Thongchai Dohomla, 46, the victim's father said that he is struggling to accept his loss. "I'm deeply saddened. "My daughter was raised by a single mother. She would always find a solution for herself and she helped me as well," he said. Her stepmother, 'Oradee Bussarakum', said that she wanted to see the suspect punished harshly. "I told police that I wanted him executed. "I don't know what else to say as a (step-)mother... I just want him face the full consequence," she said. The police have not stated when Carman is scheduled to appear in court for the first time.