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As oil prices rise and rate hikes are looming, shares in Asia fall.
On Monday, Asian share markets fell as oil prices spiked again due to supply concerns. Investors were also bracing for interest rate hikes this week in the U.S. and Japan. Brent rose 3% as new strikes against Saudi Arabia and?ships?in the Gulf tested nerves. This was after an attack on Saudi oil pipelines and an advance of Yemen's Houthis, which threatened to worsen wartime disruptions to global energy supply. The meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab States, which was scheduled to take place in Oman on Monday, for the purpose of discussing a deal regarding opening the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed. Analysts fear that oil prices will remain high for a long time, causing inflation worldwide. The markets have priced in 86% of the chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday and again by December. This would be the first rate hike since mid-2023. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economics, said: "We expect the Fed will hike twice this calendar year, in December and September." At this stage, if the institution does not follow up its words with actions, it could be at risk. He added that the data will determine whether these actions are a recalibration of sorts or a sign of a new, more consistent hiking cycle. "We expect the first scenario, but we see risks for the second." Brent futures rose?3.1% to $107.84 per barrel after gaining almost 9% the previous week. U.S. crude oil rose 2.8%, reaching $102.85 per barrel. Nikkei Futures fell 2% to 63,260 compared to a close in cash of 64,011. S&P futures on Wall Street fell 0.5% while Nasdaq's futures dropped 1.0%. High Yields Test Evaluated Equities Treasury futures firmed up a bit in early trading after being heavily sold in recent weeks. Last week, the 2-year yields jumped 26 basis points in a single week. The 10-year yields also rose 19 basis points. Ben Snider is the chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs. He said that strong corporate earnings will support Wall Street in case borrowing costs increase. He added that "stocks typically suffer when the Fed begins to raise rates, but we anticipate the bull market?to continue." "The S&P 500 generated an average return of -2.2% over a three-month period at the beginning of seven hike cycles in the past few decades." "Yet, the S&P 500 generated an average return +9% in the 12 months after the first hike." The markets also suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise its cash rate by a quarter-point, or 1.25% when it meets this Friday. BOJ will also be expected to sound "hawkish" on tightening further as it struggles against a relapse of the yen following market intervention that helped it recover from a low for 40 years. The dollar held steady at 153.77yen after falling 'around 4% in the last two week? and away from its July peak of 163.99. The euro is also little changed, at $1.1600. It was $1.1570 last Friday. The pound was unchanged at $1.3518, with the Bank of England likely to keep its rate at 3.75% Thursday. However, the decision may be divided again. Gold fell 0.3% on the commodity market to $4,336 per ounce, as bond yields increased, reducing the appeal of gold, which does not pay interest.
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Oil prices rise by more than $3 following new attacks on Saudi Arabia Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices increased by more than $3 per barrel at Monday's market opening, following new strikes on Saudi Arabia and on ships in the Gulf on Sunday. Brent crude futures increased by $3.62 or 3.46% to $108.23 per barrel as of 2214 GMT on Sunday. WTI futures increased $3.15 or 3.15% to $103.20 a barrel. Saudi Arabian media released footage on Sunday showing damage to homes and mosques from an attack they said was carried out by the Houthis in southern Jazan Province. The Houthis claimed they also attacked a Saudi military base in a neighboring province. The British maritime security agency UKMTO reported on Sunday that a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz had been struck by a stray projectile. This caused a fire, forcing the crew to evacuate the vessel. Iran reported that four members of the crew were injured and one person killed aboard a commercial vessel which was struck off its coast. The oil prices were expected to increase on Monday due to growing concerns over the supply of oil from Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world. Last week, an Iraqi drone struck and shut down its East-West pipeline, cutting off oil supplies to Saudi Arabia. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that unless the talks this week in Oman result in something operational -?or if the East-West Pipeline is brought online quickly - crude oil could continue to?expand its gains towards the $119.48 peak of?early march," he wrote in a Sunday note. Omani Foreign minister?Badr albusaidi stated on X?later Sunday that the scheduled meeting between Gulf countries, Iran and Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had been postponed.
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Swedish election in dead heat as voters question liberal traditions
The results of the national elections in Sweden were deadlocked on Sunday. A partial count by the?election authority indicated a one-seat majority for?the centre-left opposition bloc, which could stop Sweden's 'drift' away from its liberal heritage. According to the Swedish election authority, the bloc headed by Social Democrats party leader Magdalena Andersson was expected win 175 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag based on votes cast from 4,853 out of 6,312 districts. As the ballot counting continues, it appears that Prime Minister Ulf Kritersson's right-wing bloc has won 174 seats. While the election is unlikely to alter Sweden's pro Western and pro Ukraine stance, it will determine whether Kristersson continues his push for a hard right clampdown on immigration. The winner of this race may not be known until several days after the overseas votes have been counted. Kristersson, in a pre-election promise, broke a long-standing taboo by saying he would bring the Sweden Democrats into government, a far right party with Nazi roots, to form a majority-right alliance. Right-wing voters say that a victory would be a vote in favor of policies which have reduced immigration and gang violence. Some Swedes are wary, stating that Kristersson's invitation of the extreme right is a step too much. Maria Malmer Stenergard is a member Kristersson’s Moderate Party and the Minister for Foreign Affairs. She said: "I believe it will be a long evening." "Maybe the results won't be known until Wednesday, when overseas votes arrive." Kristersson had gained ground in the last weeks of campaigning after he fell behind in polls for his entire four-year tenure. Andersson's Social Democrats were losing ground. Critics claim that the Kristersson government’s immigration policies undermine civil liberties by imposing incentives and penalties on migrants to either conform to Swedish cultural norms, or leave the country. The far-right parties in Europe would welcome the Sweden Democrats' electoral success, especially after the victory of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany at a German state elections last week. The National Rally, which is a far-right party in France, hopes to gain the presidency of France next year. 'DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SWEDEN Jimmie Akesson, long-time leader of the Sweden Democrats, said that the suburb in Rinkeby near Stockholm "doesn’t look like Sweden" because it is home to the largest Swedish-Somali population. Kristersson took power in Sweden?four years back. Sweden had been one of Europe's most tolerant countries towards immigrants for many years. His government abolished the permanent?residency of refugees, tightened welfare regulations and increased expulsions for those without a legal right to remain. The Sweden Democrats admit that they were founded by neo Nazis and white supremacists during the 1980s. However, they claim to have removed these extremists and apologized for their past. After an updated projection by Swedish broadcaster SVT, the party of Sweden's Democrats was greeted with cheers after an exit poll had shown a much smaller gap than the initial one. The original exit poll had placed the centre-left opponents ahead with 51%. You cannot imagine how nervous I am at the moment. "I feel like my life's work hangs in the balance," Ludvig Aspiling, a member of parliament and immigration spokeswoman for the Sweden Democrats. It's going to be a very tight race. He said, "We still have a shot."
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Trump tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian diesel
U.S. President Donald?Trump called on Ukrainian president Volodymyr?Zelenskiy on Sunday to stop attacking Russian diesel infrastructure. He said the attacks are causing a fuel shortage that "hurts the world". In recent months, long-distance Ukrainian?drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have reduced the country's fuel production. This has led to gasoline shortages in all of Russia. Ukraine, which is regularly attacked by Russia on its own energy infrastructure says that refineries are legitimate targets. According to GasBuddy, the U.S. average price of?diesel - used in trucks, trains and ships, as well as farm equipment - rose above $6 per gallon on Thursday for the first ever time. Trump said to journalists that Zelenskiy must stop knocking down diesel fuel in Russia. This was during his visit to the Irish Open in west Ireland, which is held on a course owned by Trump's family. "We spoke to Mr. Zelenskiy. There are a number of other targets. ?Don't hit diesel fuel. He said, "That's bad for the world." Trump said that the global shortage is not caused by the Middle East but by Russia and Ukraine. According to a draft government forecast, the war has caused Russia to reduce its oil production forecast for this year to a 17-year-low and to revise its fuel exports forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
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Russian nuclear head says Ukraine attacked fuel trucks, endangered Zaporizhzhia plant
The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation, accused Ukraine on Sunday of attacking diesel fuel truck and killing two Russian servicemen. He also said that Ukraine was deliberately compromising safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Alexei Likhachev stated that 'the attack took place on Friday, and resulted in other Russian soldiers being injured. In the first weeks of the Ukraine War that erupted in February 2022, Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia Plant, Europe's biggest with six reactors. Both sides have accused each other of taking actions that "endanger the safety of the plant" and increase the likelihood of a nuclear disaster. Likhachev?issued a?statement saying Ukrainian forces launched "a number of combined strikes" Friday against fuel trucks that?deliver Diesel to the station. He said that the strikes were very close to the station's perimeter. Two servicemen died, and many Russian soldiers, some of them seriously, were injured. All of them were involved in supporting a purely civil mission. Diesel generators are vital for the plant, as they provide the power needed to cool the nuclear fuel in the reactors when the two external power lines of the plant go down. Both links were down for almost a three-week period in August and Septembre. Moscow has rejected the Ukraine's demand that Russia abandon the station and return its operation to Kyiv. Currently, the fuel?generates zero electricity. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, has permanently stationed a team of observers at the station along with Ukraine’s three other working plants. The agency has "repeatedly" acted as an 'intermediary? when disputes arise. Last month, it helped to arrange a local truce in order for repairs to be carried out and external power connections restored.
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Ukraine prepares for harsh winter after Russian attacks on economy
Officials in Ukraine warned that the country is bracing itself for a harsh winter, as Russian attacks on its infrastructure and export industries compound a growing budget crisis. The Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko stated that the damage to Russian infrastructure and fixed assets was estimated to be close to $10 Billion this year. In addition, the wider economic costs and de facto blocking of its ports are seen as about 1.5 percentage points on the gross domestic product. Kravchenko stated that "we anticipate a difficult winter, both in terms critical infrastructure which is destroyed by Russian attacks every day, as well as the overall economic situation in the country." He told diplomats, investors and officials at a YES Conference in Kyiv that "this all happens when the budget is very tight and fiscal?space is extremely constrained." Russia and Ukraine are increasingly targeting each other's economic assets and logistics networks to try and undermine the other's war efforts. Since more than two weeks, Russia has been launching near-constant attacks on Kyiv, using jet-powered drones that are faster. This has disrupted life, business, and government operations. Both Russia and Ukraine deny that they deliberately target civilians during air strikes. Moscow has also blocked Ukraine's Black Sea port by intensifying air strikes on the southern regions of the country. Kravchenko stated that the blockade could result in a loss of about $40 billion dollars in export revenues. Ukraine's major exports, agricultural products and steel and iron, are shipped through its Black Sea port. Budget Revenue Falls Behind The domestic budget has been under pressure as Russian attacks have damaged infrastructure and industry. Roksolana Piedlasa is the head of the budget committee of the parliament. She said that domestic revenue was $1.35 billion below expectations in the first eight month of the year. A quarter of these losses were recorded just in August. She said that the war is becoming more expensive and Ukraine cannot fully fund its defense needs with domestic resources as it did in previous years. In the first eight-month period of this year, Ukraine spent about $42 billion for its defence. This does not include in-kind support. Pidlasa stated that domestic revenue generation and borrowing from local sources only yielded $39 billion during this period. She said, "Unfortunately this year the war is so expensive that we cannot even cover our own share of the costs." She said that the daily cost of war increased to $190 million in this year, compared to $140 million by 2024, due to inflation, an increase in troop numbers, increasing social payments to families of fallen soldiers, and a higher consumption of ammunition. Ukraine will face a?funding gap for its defense through the end this year. The government is trying to find ways to reduce or delay non-military spending, and is in negotiations with its Western allies on financial support. But so far there hasn't been a clear solution.
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Moscow claims that it has hit ships and plants in Ukraine. Six people have been killed.
Officials said that Russian air strikes on Saturday in various Ukrainian regions killed six people and injured dozens. They also damaged infrastructure, residential buildings, and residential areas. In the last two months, civilian deaths in Ukraine have risen dramatically as Russia intensifies its attacks on infrastructure and 'power plants. Ukraine has attacked energy facilities and storage warehouses in remote parts of Russia, and both sides have targeted shipping. Vitaliy Bunechko is the governor of Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Region west of Kyiv. He said that a Russian attack on a grocery shop in Zvyahel killed two people. He said that two petrol stations, as well as a "foreign-invested enterprise" unidentified by him were also attacked. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, reported earlier that attacks had been carried out in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia?in the south-east. Ivan Fedorov is the governor of Zaporizhzhia Region. He said that two people have been killed and eleven injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, and other areas. Oleksandr Vilkul is the head of Kryvyi Rih’s military administration. He said that two people were killed overnight in attacks on?the city. The Russian military claimed that its forces had attacked Ukrainian steelmaker Zaporizhstal in the city of Zaporizhzhia. They also said they hit the Interpipe Steel Complex in Dnipro, several plants in Kryvyi Rih including the Northern Iron Ore Benefitation Works complex. It was impossible to independently verify the accounts of either side. Oleh Kiper said that in Odesa Region 37 people including an infant were injured overnight. Two people are missing. The Russian Defence Ministry stated that Moscow's forces have continued their strikes against Ukrainian ports. It claimed to have hit a cargo vessel in Odesa, which was carrying military goods. The ministry announced earlier in the day that its forces had hit two cargo ships overnight in the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk. Ukraine's military claimed it had caused a fire at one of Russia's biggest synthetic?rubber manufacturers in Togliatti?in the Samara area. It said that the Togliattikauchuk factory specialised in producing synthetic rubbers and fuel additives used in fuel for Russian missiles. Interfax reported that Russian regional governor Vyacheslav Federishchev claimed that Ukrainian drones had attacked industrial facilities in the?Samara Region, but did not specify which ones or whether they were damaged. Ilya Sukhikh, the mayor of Togliatti, in Samara Region, reported that several residential buildings had been?damaged, and one person injured. Svetlana Kambulova, the local mayor, told TASS that four commercial properties in Taganrog, in the Rostov Region, were also set ablaze.
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Iceland could ban whaling, leaving Norway and Japan in isolation
Iceland's Government will present a bill?on whaling in February that could ban it. This move?would leave Norway and Japan the only countries in the World to continue commercial whaling. Animal welfare activists and Hollywood celebrities have been protesting against Icelandic whaling for years. The government, which holds a majority in parliament, announced on its website that it is examining possible options for updating its whaling laws, paying particular attention to the option of an outright ban. According to Humane World for Animals (an animal welfare group which tracks the catches), 80 fin whales have been caught in this year's hunt season. This runs from June until the end of the month of September. The quota allows for 150 fin whales to die this year. Wendy Higgins is a spokesperson for Humane World for Animals. She said that there was a lot of public and political support for the bill. There are also compelling ethical, legal, veterinary and conservation reasons for hoping it passes. The International Union for Conservation of Nature has classified fin whales as vulnerable. Iceland's interim Government issued a license for five years to its sole remaining whaling firm in 2024. According to the International Whaling Commission, only Japan, Norway, and Iceland have engaged in 'commercial whaling' over the past few years. Iceland and Norway both resumed commercial whale hunting in 2006 despite an international moratorium in place since 1986. Japan withdrew in 2019 from the International Whaling Commission and resumed commercial whale hunting in its territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. The moratorium allows indigenous peoples to hunt whales in certain parts of the world such as Greenland or Alaska because whale products are vital for their cultural and nutritional lives.
Texas oil regulator under scrutiny as zombie wells gush back to life
On a stretching ranch in Pecos County in late July, oil well control specialist Hawk Dunlap used a backhoe to discover a deserted or socalled zombie well that had bounced back to life in spite of being plugged just over a year earlier, hissing gas and bubbling poisonous water into the dry Texas dirt.
Worn brilliant red coveralls and a silver hard hat, Dunlap hopped off the machine and into the hole to clear away staying soil with a shovel, and after that picked up a brittle portion of cement that was part of the casing implied to keep fluids and gases underground. He squashed the cement into dust with a light squeeze of his fingers as the Briggs household, who own the cattle ranch, formed a circle around him.
This was not plugged properly, Dunlap stated. This is the work of the three stooges of the Railway Commission.
The Railroad Commission (RRC) is the regulative body that, despite its name, oversees oil and gas operations in Texas. And Dunlap, a three-decade veteran of oil fields around the globe, has turned into one of its most singing critics.
Armed with a portable gas detector and smart phone, Dunlap has actually invested much of the last two-and-a-half years documenting a. flurry of oil well blow-outs and leakages across West Texas at the. wish of landowners, in an epidemic he states is being triggered by. low-quality plugging tasks left behind by operators and their. contractors and authorized by the RRC.
He and his partner Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas legal representative who. files their work on social media, say they have actually now tape-recorded. over 100 dripping tradition or orphan wells without any responsible. owner, which were listed in RRC records as correctly plugged,. consisting of the one at the Briggs Cattle Ranch in Pecos County.
Reuters reporting in West Texas, together with interviews with. landowners and specialists and an evaluation of RRC records show why the. state regulator is under increased pressure to step up its. oversight. The included examination comes at a time when over the last. two years, more and more deserted wells have begun to spill. and even gushed geyser-like, formed salt and chemical-laden lakes. or caused sinkholes.
Making matters worse is the increasing pressure rising from. beneath the ground due to the billions of gallons of wastewater. injected back into reservoirs for disposal in most current. fracking-led drilling boom in the Permian basin, the largest. U.S. oilfield. That pressure, Dunlap says, likely causes the. badly plugged wells to burst.
The U.S. Epa stated it would. examine whether to withdraw the RRC's permitting authority for. waste disposal wells after Texas watchdog group Commission Shift. filed a federal grievance alleging mismanagement.
RRC representative Patty Ramon said the EPA has not yet. contacted them to introduce the review, and noted the agency. formerly applauded its underground injection program.
We will assist them with any input if they do, Ramon said.
Confronted with the increasing number of calls from worried. landowners, Dunlap is running a long-shot project to win one of. the 3 RRC seats as a libertarian this fall, wishing to. alter the organization from within.
It's about seeing that things are done right and not. letting oil companies run over the residents of Texas simply. since they produce oil and gas and pay some royalties, he. informed Reuters.
Among the changes he wish to see: quicker and better. quality plugging of wells, accountability for the oil business. who left them behind, and a brand-new name for the Railroad Commission. to make clear it controls the oil market.
I invested 27 years strolling the Earth lauding the fact that. Texas does it bigger and much better than everybody else. So you have. to comprehend that when we began excavating and examining. ... it was, a fair bit of a gut punch for me, said Dunlap, who. has actually operated in 103 countries.
BEST STORM
Without a solvent owner of record, the obligation of. plugging these orphan wells falls on the RRC, which plans to. plug 2,000 wells this year with state funds.
While the RRC has actually documented over 8,500 inactive or. unplugged orphan wells in Texas, specialists approximate there are. thousands more undocumented, the legacy of more than a century. of drilling, that are not eligible for closure financing.
Meanwhile, oil drillers working new wells in the Permian. overlying Texas and New Mexico are building up around 24. million barrels daily of produced water-- the salted mixture. that turns up alongside oil and gas, according to Laura Capper. with energy advisory EnergyMakers. In between 40-55% of this water. is injected in regional disposal wells, with much of the rest. recycled for oil operations, she stated.
On top of concerns of produced water - packed with chemicals. like radium and boron - threatening regional aquifers and. plants, all the drilling, pumping, and reinjection is. triggering the earth to rise and go away in locations and triggering. quakes, landowners and activists say.
It is this best storm in the Permian with all this. produced water, earthquakes and orphan wells, stated Adam Peltz,. director of the Environmental Defense Fund's Energy Program.
Deep injections of wastewater have set off earthquakes,. which has resulted in the RRC limiting new drilling allows in. some areas. Shallower injections, nevertheless, overpressure the. subsurface, triggering inadequately plugged wells to leakage or blow.
The RRC pushed back on the assertion that the problem is. extensive.
There is little evidence of a widespread event of. previously plugged wells leaking, Ramon stated, adding that. commission inspectors put high-risk, high-priority wells at. the top of their plugging list.
In 2022, Texas received a $25 million preliminary grant from the. bipartisan infrastructure law's Orphaned Well Program to deal with. the issue. It got another $80 million in January however with. strings attached: use of the money requires the RRC to determine. the quantity of methane and other gases dripping from plugged wells. before and after plugging.
The RRC has actually approximated that it will require over $481. million total to plug its wells.
Ramon said the RRC has used up the first tranche of federal. funds and begun to take advantage of the bigger tranche, in addition to. its state orphan well funds. She said the company is complying. with federal requirements.
' JUST WORSENING'
Meanwhile, researchers have been firming up the link in between. wastewater injection and erupting wells.
A paper published in July by Geophysical Research. Letters by researchers from Southern Methodist University, for. example, showed that a huge orphan well blowout in Crane. County, Texas, in 2022 was triggered primarily by wastewater injection. occurring numerous miles away.
The RRC is also examining the link however has not yet. released a conclusion. It shut in two saltwater disposal wells. after a series of earthquakes just northwest of Pecos County in. the last week of July.
Back in Pecos County on the 800-acre (320-hectare) Briggs. ranch that has actually 30 deserted wells last efficient in the 1980s,. Laura Briggs said things have actually just been becoming worse.
Less than one week after Dunlap collected the previously. plugged well on the home, a separate old dripping well less. than 1,000 feet (300 m) from her home and animal pens unexpectedly. had an explosive blowout of produced water. Briggs' gas screen. revealed high levels of poisonous hydrogen sulfide.
It's been leaking for a year. I've reported it to the. commission several times, she said. However it has to leakage like. this before the Railway Commission will respond.
In early August, a vacuum truck reached the cattle ranch to. begin transporting away the fluid streaming out of the well as it. pooled up near her animals.
It's going to draw up what's coming out of that well, she. said about the truck. Then he's going to take it off and dump. it into a saltwater disposal well, which is why these wells are. dripping..
(source: Reuters)