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Short-covering of oil prices has pushed up the price, but concerns about tariffs persist
Investors took advantage of Tuesday's loss to cover their short positions. However, concerns remain about economic headwinds resulting from tariffs and U.S. policy. Brent crude futures increased 36 cents or 0.5% to $66.62 per barrel at 0421 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude contract for May expires Tuesday and was $63.73 per barrel, an increase of 65 cents or 1%. The WTI June contract, which is the most actively traded, was up 43 cents or 0.7% at $62.84 per barrel. The benchmarks fell more than 2% each on Monday as the signs of progress made in the nuclear agreement talks between Iran and the U.S. helped to ease supply concerns. Hiroyuki Kikukawa is the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment. "However concerns about a possible recession driven by the Tariff War persist," he stated, predicting WTI would likely trade between $55 and $65 for the moment given the ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, repeated on Monday his criticisms of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. He also said that the U.S. economic growth could be slowed if interest rates are not immediately lowered. His comments about Powell fueled concerns about the Fed's ability to set monetary policy independently and the outlook for U.S. investments. On Monday, the dollar index and major U.S. stock indices fell to their lowest levels in three years. Kikukawa stated that "the growing uncertainty around U.S.monetary policy will negatively impact financial markets as well as the wider economy. This could also lead to a decrease in crude oil demand." A poll conducted on April 17 revealed that investors believed the tariff policy would trigger a significant economic slowdown this year and the following, with a median probability of recession within the next 12 month approaching 50%. The U.S. has the largest oil consumption in the world. The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks could have a positive impact on the oil price and ease supply concerns, as Iran is a major oil producer. Vivek Dhar is an analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. In a recent note, he said that the U.S. could be willing to ease sanctions on Iran. According to documents obtained, the Russian economy ministry's forecast for the average Brent crude price in 2025 has been cut by 17% compared to its calculations in September. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stocks were likely to have declined last week. However, distillate inventories are expected to be higher, according to the American Petroleum Institute's and Energy Information Administration's weekly reports. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo and Emily Chow, Singapore; editing by Himani Sarkar
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Trying to contain the US market contagiousness
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It is said that the U.S. can sneeze and the whole world will catch a cold. Is contagion inevitable if it's a self-inflicted injury? The Nikkei, which is flat today despite the S&P500's 2.4% loss on Monday, may be an indication of this. It would normally be down by 1,000 points. This is despite the stronger yen. The money that is leaving U.S. assets must go somewhere and it's not only to European defence stocks. According to LSEG Lipper, investors purchased a net of $11 billion worth of European equity funds, and $3.6 billion worth in Asian equity fund in the week ending April 16. Meanwhile, U.S. equity fund saw a $10.6 billion outflow. Since then, Trump has raised the stakes and attacked Fed Chair Powell because he is not cutting rates as quickly as Trump would prefer. Although it's unclear if Trump has the authority to fire Powell, the mere appearance that he is threatening independence of the central banks is a blow to investor confidence. The dollar dropped to a new decade low against the Swissy, at 0.8842. This brings the losses since "tariff-day" to over 8%. The dollar is now testing the 140.00-yen barrier and the euro has surged above $1.15. Unhedged foreign investors in the U.S. have suffered a particularly difficult April. The yields on 10-year Treasuries increased to 4.41%. This is a continuation of the recent increase in term risk. If Trump were to consider Powell's ouster and the appointment of a loyalist then, for example, replacing Treasuries by zero coupon perpetual bonds would not be so outlandish. Trump will also be counterproductive, as the Fed may now be less willing than before to reduce rates out of fear that they'll appear to have bowed to political pressure. Fed fund futures have fallen and are 90% against a May rate cut. Today, there are at least 5 Fed speakers scheduled. It will be interesting to watch how they deal with this difficult political issue. Dodge, maybe. Tesla also released its results today, so investors can see just how bad the news has already been for their shares. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: ECB members Knot, de Guindos and BoE's Breeden speak Jefferson, Kugler Barkin Kashkari, and Harker are among the Fed members who spoke. US Richmond Fed survey on EU consumer confidence
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London copper reaches a two-week high as the dollar falls
The copper price in London reached a two-week-high on Tuesday. This was due to a sharp drop in the dollar, as Donald Trump's harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman shook the confidence of investors in the U.S. As of 0350 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), was up by 1.2% to $9,302.5 a metric tonne. It briefly reached $9,319.5 per ton, its highest level since April 4. After a weekend break for Easter, the LME returned on Monday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper rose by 0.6%, to $10,525 per metric ton. The U.S. dollar sagged near the decade low reached the day before against the Swiss Franc and hovered close to a 3-1/2 year trough when compared with the euro. The dollar's weakness makes the price of commodities in U.S. dollars cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Trump stepped up his criticisms of Fed chief Jerome Powell in a Truth Social posting on Monday, calling him "a major loser" while demanding that he reduce interest rates "NOW", or risk an economy slowdown. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said that the crisis of confidence among U.S. investors was intensifying as Trump's policies could potentially disrupt global economic order. Other metals include LME aluminium, which rose by 0.89%, to $2.386.5 per ton. Lead was up 0.75%, to $1.936.5; tin, up 1.4%, to $31,080; zinc, up 0.8%, to $2.598; and nickel, up 0.5%, to $15,695 per ton. SHFE aluminium fell 0.4%, to 19,695 Yuan per ton. Zinc was down 0.4%, to 22,130 Yuan. Lead was down 0.3%, to 16,890 Yuan. Nickel was up by 0.3%, at 125850 yuan. Tin was down 0.78%, to 257300 yuan. ($1 = 7.3078 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Janane Venkatraman, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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China's CMOC shares jump after announcing the acquisition of Lumina Gold
The shares of China's CMOC Group jumped Tuesday after the miner announced that it would purchase Canada-listed Lumina Gold in a cash-only deal for C$581,000,000 ($420.7million). The acquisition allows CMOC to gain access the flagship asset, Cangrejos, of Lumina Gold, which is located in Ecuador's El Oro Province, and has total mineral reserves of approximately 659 millions tons. This project is the largest primary gold deposit of the South American country. CMOC shares listed in Shanghai jumped over 4% while those listed in Hong Kong rose more than 8%. Shares of Lumina Gold soared 29%. The purchase comes at a moment when gold prices are on a rise, reaching multiple historic highs in this year. This is fueled by demand for safe haven amid uncertainty over the U.S. Tariff impact and lingering political conflicts. CMOC reported a 64% increase in its net profit in 2024, aided by a surge in the production of copper and cobalt. The company has also assets such as molybdenum. tungsten. niobium. and phosphate fertiliser. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Varun H. K.
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Atlantic Zonda Drillship Starts its Maiden Job with Petrobras
The seventh generation Atlantic Zonda drillship, managed by Ventura Offshore Midco, has started operations for Petrobras under a three-year drilling contract.The Atlantic Zonda is managed by Ventura Offshore through marketing and operating agreements with the rig owner, Eldorado Drilling, and the company will earn its management fees and reimbursable revenues from these agreements.Following the delivery of the Atlantic Zonda from Samsung shipyards, contract preparations were carried out in Singapore, where the rig was upgraded with the most advanced technological drilling package available.The three-year contract marks the start of its inaugural assignment, with an option for additional three years for the Brazilian state-run firm Petrobras.The Atlantic Zonda is a full dual activity rig equipped with Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) capability.“We extend our heartfelt congratulations to the entire Ventura Offshore team for achieving this important milestone. Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in bringing this project to fruition. Additionally, we would like to express our sincere gratitude to Eldorado Drilling for their invaluable partnership and support throughout this endeavor. We look forward to delivering safe and efficient operations to Petrobras with the Atlantic Zonda,” said Guilherme Coelho, CEO of Ventura Offshore."We are excited to commence the contract made possible through our strong relationship with Ventura and the hard work, dedication and commitment of the entire Zonda project team,” added Svend Anton Maier, CEO of Eldorado Drilling.
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China's demand for iron ore is likely to increase in the near future
Iron ore futures prices rose on Tuesday due to a near-term increase in demand from China, the world's largest consumer. However, lingering concerns about tariffs limited the price rise. As of 0253 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 0.49% to $71.35 per metric ton. The benchmark May ore price on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.76% to $98.6 per ton. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that "strong iron ore purchases by steel mills, and lower imports, saw inventories drop sharply." ANZ reports that despite the government's efforts to reduce capacity, steel production grew by 4.6% in March to 93 tonnes. Steelhome data shows that the total iron ore stocks across China ports fell by 2.39% in a week to 134.6 millions tons on April 18. According to a report by Mysteel, the volume of iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil increased 0.1% compared with the previous week. Galaxy Futures said that tariffs are still weighing down on steel exports and affecting demand for iron ore during the second quarter. China accused Washington's abuse of tariffs, and warned other countries not to strike a wider economic deal with America at its expense. India implemented a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports (locally known as safeguard duty) to stop a rush of cheap shipments, mainly from China. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also lost ground. They fell by 1.89% each and 1.51% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have declined. The price of rebar fell 0.13%. Hot-rolled coils dropped around 0.2%. Wire rod fell 0.06%. Stainless steel declined 0.55%. $1 = 7.3125 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng; Michele Pek)
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India imposes temporary tariffs on certain steel imports to stop cheap imports from China
India, the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, imposed on Monday a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports. This is known locally as a "safeguard duty" to stop a rush of cheap shipments, primarily from China. In recent years, a flood of Chinese steel has forced some Indian mills into reducing operations and considering job cuts. India is among a number countries that have considered action to stop imports in order to protect their local industry. In an official order, the Ministry of Finance stated that this duty will be in effect for 200 days starting Monday "unless it is revoked, replaced or amended sooner". New Delhi has made its first major shift in trade policy since U.S. president Donald Trump imposed tariffs on a number of countries, starting a bitter trade conflict with China. The investigation into the latest action began in December, but tensions about cheap steel imports to India were already present before that. H. D. Kumaraswamy, India's steel minister, said in a press release that the measure was designed to protect domestic steel producers from the negative impact of a surge in imported steel and ensure fair competition on the market. This move will be a relief for domestic producers and small-scale businesses, which have been under immense pressure due to the rise in imports, Kumaraswamy stated. New Delhi's tariffs mainly target China, the second largest steel exporter to India in 2024/25 behind South Korea. The decision was expected and we are now waiting to see if this measure will support the industry, margins, and limit cheap imports in the country. The executive said that "Chinese imports have an impact on the world, whether they are directly or indirectly." According to government data, India became a net importer for the second consecutive year of 2024/25. Shipments reached a record high of 9 million metric tonnes, a figure not seen in nine years. New Delhi's top steelmakers' group, which includes JSW Steel and Tata Steel as members along with the Steel Authority of India, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India and Steel Authority of India has expressed concerns about imports and demanded curbs. Reporting by Neha Misra and Surbhi Arora; Editing by Alison Williams and Toby Chopra. Mayank Bhardwaj, Jan Harvey and Alison Williams.
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London copper reaches a two-week high, as the dollar falls
The copper price in London reached a two-week-high on Tuesday. This was due to a sharp drop in the dollar, as Donald Trump's harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman shook the confidence of investors in the U.S. As of 0212 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), was up 0.8% to $9,265.5 per kilogram. It briefly reached $9,319.5 per ton, its highest level since April 4. After a weekend break for Easter, the LME returned on Monday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper rose by 0.4%, to 76760 yuan per metric tonne ($10,503.56). The U.S. dollar sank close to a decade-low against the Swiss Franc and hovered around a 3-1/2 year low versus the Euro. The dollar's weakness makes the price of commodities in U.S. dollars cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Trump stepped up his criticisms of Fed chief Jerome Powell in a Truth Social posting on Monday, calling him "a major loser" while demanding that he reduce interest rates "NOW", or risk an economy slowdown. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said that the crisis of confidence among U.S. investors was intensifying as Trump's policies could potentially disrupt global economic order. Other metals include LME aluminium, which rose 0.9% to $ 2,387.5 per ton. Lead was up 0.96% at $1,940.5. Tin was up 2.5% at $31,270. Zinc was up 0.99% at $2,602.5. Nickel was down 0.08% to $15,610. SHFE aluminium fell by 0.08% at 19,760 yuan per ton. Zinc was down by 0.18% at 22,170, lead was up 0.15% at 16,965 and nickel was down by 0.02%, falling to 125,400, and tin was down 0.67 percent to 257 590 yuan.
UK Labour's business beauty offensive yet to win over some huge donors
Billionaire John Caudwell, one of the governing Conservative Celebration's most significant donors before Britain's last national election in 2019, states he no longer wants to back a party that he feels wasted 14 years in power.
However he's not rather all set to contribute to Labour.
With a basic election due early next month, Caudwell, who made almost 1.5 billion pounds ($ 1.9 billion) in 2006 when he sold his mobile phone retailer Telephones 4u, still feels he does not. know enough about the centre-left opposition party's strategies.
With the race on to raise campaign funding after Prime. Minister Rishi Sunak shocked political leaders and big business by. calling an early election on July 4, both the Conservatives and. Labour are enhancing efforts to court donors.
Labour's leader, Keir Starmer, a former public district attorney,. has charted a centrist course because he took control of in 2020, moving. the celebration away from a leftist program that saw it lose heavily at. the previous election. Polls now recommend that Labour will sweep. to success in July.
But some rich donors, like Caudwell, are remaining on the. sidelines, skeptical the party has actually demonstrated it has the. policy services to revive Britain's flagging financial growth,. modernise its facilities and safeguard public services from. attrition.
Keir Starmer's Labour Party is untried ... and that's a. threat, Caudwell said at his marble-floored mansion in London's. elegant Mayfair district. I wish to see more concrete stuff. from Keir and the potential cabinet, in regards to what's going to. occur when they get in power.
What we do understand is the Tories have actually refrained from doing us extremely well. over the last 14 years, Caudwell told in an interview,. describing the governing Conservatives. We just do not understand. whether Labour would do much better.
That's a sentiment shared by numerous citizens. A survey by. pollster YouGov in April showed that 50% of participants were. unclear what Labour under Starmer represents.
Labour did not respond to an ask for remark for this. story.
Traditionally, the left-leaning celebration received the bulk of. its financing from Britain's union motion.
According to a ' analysis of data from Britain's. electoral commission, Starmer has actually received the second-highest. level of personal donations for the Labour Celebration in a single. election cycle - behind Labour's term in power in 2005-2010. under former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
The celebration has actually gathered about 24 million pounds ($ 30.6. million) in personal donations because 2020, according to '. analysis of data going to April.
The majority of that came from wealthy individuals, with around half. from 3 donors: David Sainsbury, a former Labour peer and. ex-chairman of the Sainsbury's grocery store chain; his daughter. Francesca Perrin; and Gary Lubner, the previous CEO of Belron, an. global windscreen repair work and replacement company.
Sainsbury, Perrin and Lubner did not react to requests for. remark.
More than 9 million pounds have originated from brand-new donors,. consisting of Lubner. At least 8 previous Conservative advocates. have now changed their loyalty and are now providing cash to. Labour, with some saying they are persuaded by Labour's guarantee. of a steady environment for organization.
Private donations aside, the rest of Labour's cash. originates from a mix of trade unions, public funds and other sources. - although its financial reliance on the unions is in decrease.
Labour got simply 23.9 million pounds from trade unions. under Starmer, compared with more than 50 million pounds under. both his predecessor, the left-wing veteran Jeremy Corbyn, and. the prior celebration leader, Ed Miliband.
The Conservatives are still winning the financing race, taking. 104.3 million pounds compared with Labour's 90.2 million in the. duration because Starmer became leader - something not lost on the. opposition party, which frequently sends e-mail ask for. funds, typically two times a day.
One Conservative donor, who made a big contribution at the. last election, stated he would not be providing money to the party. for this project as he didn't anticipate it to win. The. businessman, who requested privacy so he could speak honestly,. likewise dismissed contributing to Labour, citing the risk of higher. taxes if they are chosen.
Labour has stated there will be no increases in income tax or. National Insurance coverage social security contributions if it wins. power. A Conservative spokesperson said the party was taking strong. action to protect a much better future for the entire country.
THE PARTY OF ORGANIZATION?
Ahead of the last election, Caudwell offered the Conservatives. 500,000 pounds due to the fact that he was convinced that Corbyn would be. definitely devastating for the UK, he stated.
Starmer, considering that ending up being Labour leader in 2020, has actually courted. company owners, financiers and bankers, conscious that the celebration. enjoyed its biggest electoral success in modern times under the. pro-business management of Blair.
Lots of businesses, in turn, have clamoured to get access to a. group viewpoint polls state will be the next British federal government.
Last year's business forum at Labour's yearly conference in. October had 200 guests, with more than 180 on the waiting. list. The previous one attracted simply 130 guests, according to a. Labour authorities.
However 4 business leaders interviewed for this short article stated. they still have misgivings over whether Starmer, a previous public. district attorney, can administer the policies needed to attract. investment and spur financial development in Britain.
For Caudwell, that would indicate offering tax breaks to green. business developing innovative environmental technologies. that might turn Britain into a leader in the sector - something. he doubts whether Labour might do, politically.
Labour, typically viewed as the celebration of tax and invest,. scaled back a target to invest 28 billion pounds a year in green. industries if it wins the election since of what Starmer. called the degrading financial outlook.
Instead, the party would ramp up financial investment over time. It. strategies to embrace a tax break for business referred to as full. expensing presented by the Conservatives last year that enables. business to subtract 100% of the cost of certifying plant and. machinery from their taxable earnings.
Caudwell stated he would wait to see the Labour manifesto,. where the celebration will set out its program for government, to see. if it's genuinely a celebration that I can support. Labour expects the. manifesto to be released next week. The Conservatives are also. expected to release their manifesto quickly.
I'm still abstaining, Caudwell stated.
However if Labour did do more to make Britain more attractive. economically, the 71-year-old entrepreneur said he would more than happy. to contribute.
Caudwell proposes drawing in green innovation companies to. Britain by providing a corporation tax holiday extending to as. much as 10 years. In meetings, the Labour leader showed interest. in his ideas, even if he was not yet ready to bite, Caudwell. stated.
When he wins the election - as I make sure he will - I'll attempt. and get to him once again, and attempt and put these policies forward to. him, Caudwell said.
A spokeswoman for Starmer did not react to a request for. remark.
(source: Reuters)