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Can China do the same with fuels as it did for oil? Russell
The dramatic drop in crude oil prices during the conflict with Iran is credited to China's drastic reduction of its crude imports. The question now is whether the world’s largest oil importer will be able to do the same on the increasingly stressed markets for refined products. In June, China's seaborne crude oil imports dropped to their lowest level in over a decade. According to commodity analysts Kpler, arrivals were 5.96 million barrels per day. The average was?10.66m bpd during the three months prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, which began a conflict leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire in June, which raised hopes for the reopening of the narrow waterway that carried about 20% global crude oil and refined products prior to the conflict. The ceasefire was broken last week when the United States and Iran struck each other and Tehran attacked ships that were passing through the Strait of Hormuz without clearance. Although tanker traffic through the Strait is likely to drop dramatically as a result of the renewed conflict in the region, there was enough crude that passed through during the brief truce to supply Asia's refiners until the end September. Fuel Pressure The global market is tightening, as Russia has banned the export of diesel following damage to its refineries by Ukrainian drone attacks. The ban is coming at a time when the north hemisphere's peak agricultural and construction demand will be met. The lack of Russian cargoes has exacerbated the situation for refined products in Asia. Asia's imports both of light and middle distillates fell to 5,19 million bpd, the lowest since Kpler records dating back to 2017. They were also down 32% compared to the average 6.85 million Bpd for the three months leading up to conflict with Iran. China's informal ban on the export of certain refined products was seen as a measure to protect domestic supplies after the Iran War began. Kpler tracked shipments of 350,000 barrels per day. This was a small improvement, with a rise of 411,000 bpd to 423,000 bpd by June. However, this is still below the average 719,000 bpd for the three months before the Iran War. China will export more refined products after Beijing eased its unofficial restrictions and allowed at least one refinery to resume shipments along with state-controlled refineries. According to sources in China, exports of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and gasoline may reach 3 million metric tonnes in July. This is equivalent to just over 800,000 bpd. Kpler estimates China's refined products exports to be 585,000 bpd in July, but the number is likely going to increase as more cargoes get assessed. ENOUGH HELP? Market participants are wondering if this will be enough to relieve supply pressures. While it's a great help, Asia's refined product imports are likely to remain below the levels that were normal before the conflict with Iran. The prices of refined products remain higher than before the war, and crude oil is still priced at a premium. Singapore gasoil - the "building block" for diesel - was last traded at $137.72 per barrel. It has steadily risen since it dropped to $109.35 on 23 June amid initial relief over the ceasefire agreement. Gasoil has also risen 51% from the $91.42 per barrel on February 27, just before the conflict began, while Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil, ended Monday at $83.30, an increase of 14.9% over February 27. The depletion of inventories and renewed threats against crude and product shipments in the Middle East will likely continue to drive up the price of refined products, even if crude futures markets keep pricing for an end to the Iran War. Another point is that higher fuel prices may encourage China's refiners, who are able to make a profit from their refined fuels, to continue exporting. Beijing may believe that they can dip into their huge stockpiles, in the hope oil will become cheaper once the Middle East conflict is resolved and ships are allowed to travel freely. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Fed in the spotlight while Warsh faces Congress
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Brent Crude is soaring around $85 per barrel as U.S. Fed chair Kevin Warsh prepares for his testimony before the 'Congress in two days. No pressure then. The?U.S. Warsh will likely be asked questions about the plans of the central bank for its balance sheet by members of?House Financial Services Committee. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish comments this week have increased the odds that there will be more rate increases this year, perhaps even as early as this month. This prospect, along with the?third consecutive night of strikes against Iran by the U.S. Military and the possibility of a U.S. 20% fee for cargo ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz roiled Asian markets on Tuesday. Brent futures rose to their highest level since mid-June while S&P500 e-minis futures fell 0.2%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1.2%. This was primarily due to declines in shares from Taipei and Seoul. Even though the 'bear market' in South Korea continues -- the Kospi index had its worst two-day drop on Tuesday since the beginning of the Iran War -- the index remains one of the best performers this year. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures down by 0.9%. German DAX Futures also fell by 0.9%. FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. Chinese stocks performed better than the majority of other countries after data showed that exports soared in June. This was boosted by demand for data centre computing power and chips to fuel global AI boom. In Tokyo, Finance Minister Satsuki katayama stated that Japan could consider changing the strategy of its 'giant Government Pension Investment Fund' if the investment climate changes dramatically. This comes after officials had said they would look for ways to encourage more investments in domestic financial assets. She did not provide any further information. According to a White House official, Trump's administration has also announced that it is blocking American citizens from the Democratic Republic of Congo to travel?back to America on commercial flights as the Ebola outbreak intensifies. Key developments on Tuesday include: company earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America Corporation; economic data for the U.S., including June CPI, core inflation, and debt auctions in Germany. (Reporting Gregor Stuart Hunter, Editing Kate Mayberry).
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Oil prices rise by one month as US and Iran intensify attacks on Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices rose by?nearly 3 percent on Tuesday, reaching their highest level in four weeks. The U.S. reimposed its 'naval blockade of Iran, while both countries intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This increased uncertainty over energy flows. Brent crude futures rose last $1.50 or 1.8% to $84.80 a barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose $1.70 or 2.2% to $79.84 per barrel. Brent gained?9.6% the day before, which was its largest daily gain since may 2020. The oil prices have reached their highest level since June 17, when the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding to end the conflict. On Monday, the U.S. military conducted a third night of strikes against Iran as U.S. president Donald Trump reinstated an Iranian blockade and proposed charging a 20 percent fee to guard?the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that the latest escalation has brought a "fresh risk" to the market. He added that, "While there hasn't been a complete closure yet, the conflicting objectives of the two sides have left the supply picture in a highly uncertain state." The UAE Ministry of Defence reported on Monday that two United Arab Emirates tanks were struck by two Iranian cruise-missiles during the attacks in the southern lane of Strait of Hormuz, in Omani territorial water. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others injured. The latest shipping data also revealed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over two months. The key factor to watch is the physical movement of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Any significant blockage of tanker movement, prolonged'reduction in vessel motion, or disruption to export flow would likely cause another leg up in oil prices, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sahdeva. If barrels keep moving despite military escalation, then part of the geopolitical premium may gradually diminish. Yemen's Houthi group fired missiles towards Saudi Arabia, accusing it of bombing a Saudi-controlled airport on Monday. Simon Wong said that if the Houthis continue their attacks on Saudi crude oil in the Red Sea it would "increase (further?) uncertainty" about the crude flow from the region. A preliminary poll conducted on Monday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have declined last week while gasoline and distillate inventories likely increased. Reporting by Ishaan Chow and Emily Chow from Singapore, with editing by Jamie Freed.
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London copper prices slip on Hormuz concerns as a gloomy demand offsets supply-chain woes
The price of copper in London fell slightly on Tuesday, amid the latest escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, this was offset by concerns over a possible supply chain crisis. Benchmark 'three-month' copper prices on the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.18% to $13,516 per metric tonne by 0300 GMT. After an increase in LME copper prices overnight, the most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.64%. It now stands at 103950 yuan a ton. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, and Iran announced that they would both blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has renewed their attacks on Iran and tankers in the crucial waterway have been attacked. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, said in a note that the escalation is a "double edged sword" for copper. The broker stated that it supports the prices of the red metal amid concerns about disruptions to the copper supply chains, while weighing them down by increasing economic and trade risk and dampening demand. The fighting has re-ignited fears that rising energy costs and input prices will force policymakers to increase interest rates in order to combat inflation. This would dampen demand for industrial minerals such as copper, which are dependent on economic growth. The latest escalation in the war has pushed oil prices to their highest levels in four weeks. However, they remain?below the peak levels of the conflict. Gold that does not yield slid down to its lowest level in two weeks on fear of a higher U.S. Interest rates. The dollar's direction will be determined by the U.S. inflation figures and Kevin 'Warsh's first appearance before Congress as Federal Reserve Chairman. The escalation in prices of aluminium?increased as a result, and threatened to undermine?supply from major producers?in the Middle East. On the LME it rose 0.63% while on the SHFE, it grew 1.37%. Nickel added 0.2%, tin 0.44%, and lead ticked higher. On the SHFE, tin fell 0.49%, tin gained 0.61%, and lead lost 0.4%. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Solomon Cefai)
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Asian stocks fall as oil prices rise after Trump's Hormuz levies threat
Tuesday, oil prices rose and stocks fell in Asian trading after Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would re-impose its blockade of Iranian ships in the Gulf and charge a 20% surcharge on all cargo crossing Strait of Hormuz. After a volatile session, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.7%. The biggest declines were in South Korea and Taiwan, where shares at their lowest points exceeded 3%. Japan's Nikkei fell by 0.8% while S&P500 e-minis futures declined by 0.3%. The CSI 300, the benchmark for Chinese stocks, fell 0.4% less than the regional index after Tuesday's export and import figures beat expectations. Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $84.72 per barrel after hitting their highest level since mid-June, $85.64. The markets were also shaken by the hawkish remarks made on Monday by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said that the U.S. Central Bank may have to raise interest rates in the near future if inflation continues well above its 2% target. The U.S. CPI is expected to be released later Tuesday. Kevin Warsh will then deliver the semi-annual report of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to Congress. Chris Weston of Pepperstone, Melbourne's head of research, stated that "markets reacted aggressively to the recent headlines about the Iran conflict." The prospect of tighter monetary policies into a possible energy shock rarely supports risk assets. Overnight, Wall Street stocks fell and oil futures soared by more than 9%, as the conflict between Iran and the U.S. re-emerged, once again slowing the flow of goods across the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 ended 0.8% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%. Fed funds futures are pricing in an implied probability of 43.3% for a 25 basis-point increase at the U.S. Central Bank's next two day meeting on July 28 and 29, compared to 34.2% on Friday. This is according to CME Group's FedWatch. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up 1.6 points to 4.624%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the 'greenback against a basket?six currencies - dipped 0.1% to 101.18. It was trading at its highest levels for the month. Gold rose 0.3% to $4,012.37. Vis Nayar, Eastspring Investments chief investment officer, said in a recent note that the risk of a resurgence in U.S. - Iran tensions is primarily due to the impact higher energy prices have on currencies and interest rates. "Continually higher oil prices will increase the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the Fed funds rate this year." Taiwan's benchmark index? fell to a new low in Taipei and led regional declines. Seoul's?stocks fluctuated between positive and negative territory, as shares of?SK Hynix fluctuated between gains and losses. They fell as much as 5,6% after a rally. The memory chipmaker's volatility comes after its dramatic drop a day before following its Nasdaq launch last week. (Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kevin Buckland) (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anaantharaman, Kevin Buckland, and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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China's June imports of iron ore are at a six-month high due to robust shipments and resilient demand
China's imports of iron ore in June increased by 15% compared to the previous month, reaching a six-month record. This was due to miners increasing shipments to meet quarterly targets and lower prices encouraging more buyers among steelmakers and traders. Data from China's General Administration of Customs revealed that the world's largest iron ore importer imported 112,69?million tons of the key ingredient in steelmaking last month. This was up 6.4% on the previous year and the highest amount since December. Analyst Qingwei Xie at Shanghai Metals Market said that "shipments increased last months as some miners increased efforts to meet quarter guidance and as certain mines boosted production." Data from the shipping tracking agency Kpler revealed that iron ore exports to major suppliers Australia, Brazil and South Africa increased by 4.3% in late June. Hot metal production remained high?in the month of June, Xie said. Mysteel data showed that the average daily hot metal production in June, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, was 0.7% higher than it was in May. Analysts said that some cargoes cleared customs in June, but arrived as early as May. This contributed to the increase in ore imports. The price of this key ingredient in steelmaking fell by 4.7% during the month, as energy and freight prices dropped due to the tentative agreements between the United States & Iran. China's imports of iron ore totalled 628.87 millions tons between January-June, a 6.3% increase on an annual basis. Steel exports in China in June were high, despite a small monthly drop. This was due to a lackluster domestic market and competitive prices on the export market. Exports in June, which totaled 10.32 million tonnes, were 0.2% lower than the previous month, but 6.6% higher than the same period last year. Last month, steel consumption declined as high temperatures and heavy rains in certain?regions curbed building. This encouraged mills export more steel products. Last month, export prices dropped in line with the trend on the domestic market. This made Chinese steel more competitive against its international rivals. The Iran conflict has disrupted the flow of steel from the Gulf and prompted Middle Eastern customers to look for alternatives. Steel exports fell by 5.6% in the first half of this year to 54.87 millions tons. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Kate Mayberry.
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Trump reduces the size of two Utah National Monuments
The White House reported that U.S. president Donald 'Trump' signed orders on Monday reducing the size of 2 national monuments by over 90% in order to allow for motorized recreation, logging, and other resource developments in the area. The Bears Ears National Monument was reduced to 121.100 acres (49,000 ha) from 1.36 million acres and the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument was cut to 181,500 from 1.87 millions acres. Earthjustice, an environmental?group, said that it would "maintain protections for these precious landscapes" by taking legal action. Trump announced the news?at The White House with Utah Governor Spencer Cox, and Utah's two U.S. Senators, Mike Lee, and John Curtis. Trump stated that "we're doing something very drastic and very important for people in?Utah and people in?our country because many people use this." Joe Biden, the former president of the United States, expanded the monuments despite the opposition from Utah officials. Former President Barack Obama established Bears Ears in 2016. The monument is named after twin buttes which resemble the head of a bear on the horizon. It contains cultural and archaeological sites sacred to many Native American tribes. Bill Clinton, former president of the United States, established Grand Staircase-Escalante in 1996. Over the past two decades, numerous dinosaur fossils were found at 'the monument, which is known for its colorful rock formations. Trump has dismissed environmental and cultural preservation projects in the past. Senator?Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, a Democrat whose State borders southern Utah, criticized the President's decision. Heinrich stated in a?statement that this administration had repeatedly put the interests billionaires and powerful industry ahead of the?America's?public lands and their owners. "They're once again ignoring Tribal Voices, marginalizing local communities, and endangering places that belong every American." (Reporting and editing by Sonali Freed and Jamie Freed; reporting by Gram Slattery in Washington, Kanishka Singh and Nichola Slattery in Los Angeles.
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Asia markets are choppy due to Trump's threat of a levy on the Gulf of Hormuz.
The stock market fluctuated between gains and losses on Tuesday, and oil reached a new high of one month in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would re-impose its blockade of Iranian ships in the Gulf. He also said the U.S. would charge a 20% surcharge on all cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 0.4% in a volatile session. The gains were led by 2.2% for Korean shares. Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.2% while S&P500 e-minis futures were down 0.1%. Brent crude futures rose 2.6% to $85.50 per barrel, the highest price since mid-June. Trading resumed in Asia. The markets were also shaken by the hawkish remarks made on Monday by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said that the U.S. Central Bank may have to increase interest rates in the near future if inflation continues well above its 2% target. Chris Weston of Pepperstone Group Ltd, Melbourne, stated that "markets reacted aggressively to the recent headlines about the Iran conflict." The prospect of tighter monetary policies into a possible energy shock rarely supports risk assets. Overnight, Wall Street stocks fell and oil futures soared by more than 9%, as the conflict between Iran and the United States re-ignited and once again choked the flow of goods across the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 ended 0.8% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%. The U.S. CPI is expected to be released later on Tuesday, and then Fed Chair Warsh will give the semi-annual monetary report of the central bank. Fed funds futures price in an implied 43.3% chance of a 25 basis-point 'hike' at the U.S. Central Bank's next two day meeting on July 28 and 29, compared to a 34.2% chance last Friday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up 2.2 basis point at 4.6297%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, was at 101.29 and trading near its highest levels for the month. Gold fell 0.1% to $3,997.27. Stocks in Seoul fluctuated between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as shares of SK Hynix fell as much as 4.7% in the opening minutes of trading, before rallying and trading up to 4.6% higher. The memory chipmaker's volatility comes after its dramatic drop a day before following its Nasdaq launch last week. Bitcoin was up 0.3% to $62,318.43, while ether rose 0.7% to $1,777.63. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
SoftBank's son dismisses bubble talks, saying AI will require $5 trillion annually by 2040.
SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi son said that the development of AI will require $5 trillion in investment each year by 2040. Any talk of a "bubble" forming around this technology is absurd, Son added.
The technology investment group, SoftBank, has been investing heavily in OpenAI over the last two years. They have also invested in data centres, robotics companies, and financing. Son told SoftBank's annual conference in Tokyo that the cost of AI will be $5 trillion or 800 trillion yen per year. You might think this is a lie but I'm confident it's true. Son stated that the business model "will be viable" because, by 2040, AI revenue will make up 20% of the global GDP. Spending 800 trillion yen per year would only be a rounding error. Son did not explain how he arrived at the $5 trillion figure or what percentage of the global GDP AI is expected to?make up.
Son is well-known for his 'enthusiastic speeches' praising the promise of transformational technologies. The value of AI firms has risen dramatically, while the capital expenditures to secure infrastructure have ballooned. This has led to concerns about whether these firms can generate a sufficient return on investment. "Asking whether AI is a bubble or not is absurd." He reiterated his position, saying that he didn't believe people who asked the question knew what AI was. Son has scored big wins, such as an early investment into Chinese ecommerce company Alibaba, and bringing Apple Inc's iPhones to the Japanese market. However, other companies, such as the bankrupt shared office provider WeWork, have not lived up to expectations. SoftBank is currently placing its highest bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Its cumulative investment is expected to reach $60 billion by 2026. Son said that to power AI, AI data centres would need power of 3 terawatts or 1.8 times the current global consumption by 2040.
Son stated that this will be initially powered by gas, before nuclear fusion is the main energy source.
Elon Musk: "Will solar power be used in space?" He said that we may use both but that fusion energy on Earth would be the cleaner, cheaper source of energy. Son described his vision of a society in 2040 with 100 trillion AI agents that make their own decisions and take action, as well as communicate with each other.
"We'll move from a world centered on humans to one centered around agents. The age of humans as the most advanced lifeform on Earth will come to an end. Son said, "It will happen for better or worse and it cannot be stopped." (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; reporting by Anton Bridge)
(source: Reuters)