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Brent oil changes structure to reflect rising supply risks as Iran tensions escalate

Brent crude oil futures for immediate delivery reached a new high compared to the previous price of oil six months earlier. This was due to traders pricing in the renewed risk of Middle Eastern oil supplies and shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.

The Brent first-month contract was $8.92 per barrel higher than the Brent sixth-month contract It is its highest?premium in the last 10 days. Backwardation is a market structure where prompt contracts are traded at a higher price than later ones. This is usually interpreted as an indication of tight near-term supply. Brent's decision follows a sharp increase in tensions between Iran and the U.S., including new?military attacks and attacks on vessels close to the Strait of Hormuz, which has?reignited fears over the security?of Middle East crude oil supplies.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "The return to the backwardation signal indicates that the market expects the crude availability to be constrained for the weeks to come." This structure is different from that of early July when Brent was trading below the later contracts. That structure, known as contango, is more common and usually associated with abundant near-term supply. Exports returning through the Strait eased concerns about supply.

Neil Crosby is the head of research for Sparta Commodities. He said, "At the moment, it's largely a purely paper move. Investors are likely to pour back into the market after the latest escalation."

Crosby said that "we are seeing a slowdown in the?flows from Hormuz, which may... have an incremental impact on the physical market over the next few weeks if disruptions continue." Middle East crude benchmarks Oman?, Dubai, and Murban have also moved from discounts to premiums, indicating a growing concern about supply. According to an analysis by Kpler, the oil and gas tanker trade has fallen to its lowest levels since May 25.

(source: Reuters)