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McGeever: Why Trump's tariffs have a lot of bark but little bite
Donald Trump's favourite word is "tariff", and his continued use of the term last year caused fear in the markets, as the U.S. administration unilaterally implemented the most protectionist trade policies since 1930s. The bark was worse than the bite. Just over a month has passed since Trump declared "Liberation Day" and the average U.S. Tariff rate is lower in April 2025 than many had feared. The daily effective pre-substitution rate, at just over 10%, is four times higher than it was at the end of 2024. Tariffs are barely a?record in today's financial markets. This is partly because investors are more concerned about real wars than trade wars. The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs is also not as bad as many people feared. This could be because the trade war coincided a technological boom. Perhaps that is too simplistic. It may be years before the full impact of the redrawing of geopolitical and trade alliances in the world is known. Unexpected negative shocks could be on the way. The fact that STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT tariffs have had a muted impact on the economy over the last year is partly explained by a simple fact: Actual levies were lower than statutory rate. This is the main argument of a Brookings Institution article by Pablo D. Fajgelbaum of University of California, and Amit Khandelwal of Yale University. By December of last year, the authors found that 57% or so of U.S. imported goods were still duty-free. This includes the majority of goods imported from Canada and Mexico, under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The Trump administration will formally?declare Wednesday that it won't extend the 32-year old North American Free Trade Zone. But that only starts a new review process. Tariffs at the border are often lower than headline rates due to legal loopholes or special agreements. The retaliation to Trump's tariffs was mostly modest or short lived, with China being the only major trading partners who offered a firm and sustained response. Hyperscalers invested hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure and chips to boost global trade. According to the Brookings article, the net effect of tariffs has been only between 0.1% and 0.1% of GDP until December. The Brookings paper says that these?findings are in line with the analysis done by The Budget Lab, a Yale-based research group. It estimates that tariffs will cause the U.S. to be 0.1% less prosperous in the long term, which is the equivalent of $30 billion in 2025 dollars. Other words, statistically significant, but not at all in the near future. Markets vs Real Economy Try telling that to U.S. customers, who are forced to pay 90% of Trump's Tariffs. In an April Federal Reserve report, the paper found that tariffs are solely responsible for the excess inflation of core goods from January 2025. The same paper, however, also indicated that the tariff pass-through is now essentially complete. It was, in other words, a price increase that happened only once, as the Trump Administration had claimed. If true, this would be good news for Americans whose personal savings rate, which has fallen to the lowest level in four years due to higher prices, is now below 3%. There is also another side to the story. Tariffs are taxes that fall on the person who pays them. Usually, this is the consumer. They are a direct source of revenue for the government, reaching $264 billion in 2017. This is more than three times the revenue in 2024 and represents 0.83% GDP, which is the highest since over a century. Theoretically, the revenue generated by tax cuts and higher spending should be able to offset some of the impact on consumers. SLOW BURN? But investors shouldn't become complacent. Although trade uncertainty has decreased, it is still very high. According to the Tax Foundation, the U.S. tariff policies have changed more than fifty times since the start of Trump's second tenure. There's no reason to think that this is the end, considering the Trump administration's willingness to use tariffs to threaten foreign policy negotiations. Investors have mostly ignored these concerns. Rebecca Harding, trade economist and writer whose latest book "The World at Economic War" was published in late 2012, says that markets have become detached from the reality of the economy. The cost of doing business internationally will continue to rise as a result of increased trade uncertainty. Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) will struggle to keep up with the demands. It's clear that the predictions of tariff doom by many economists have been wrong, but it could be just a question of timing. Brexit is a cautionary tale. The UK economy didn't immediately crash after Britain voted in 2016 to leave the European Union. There is no doubt that 10 years later, the economic damage has been severe. It is still unclear whether the slow-burning economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. will be similar. However, it's worth asking. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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EU announces new steel import quotas in order to protect the industry from overcapacity
The European Commission announced quotas for the new system to limit duty-free imports of steel into the EU. This move was aimed at protecting the steel industry in the bloc and increasing its capacity utilization. The new rules reduce the annual EU tariff-free import quotas by 47%, to 18,3 million metric tonnes, and introduce a 50% duty for steel products that are imported outside of the quota. The Commission stated that the rules will come into force on Wednesday and aim to increase the steel capacity utilization within the EU to 80%. Eurofer, the European steel association, says that the new rules will only increase capacity utilization from 67% to 73%-75%. Eurofer's Director General, Axel Eggert said that the EU steelmakers will likely recover 15 million metric tonnes of production. This is about half of what they have lost in recent years. The import quotas are divided into two parts: one half is reserved for partners in free-trade agreements (FTAs) and the other half is available to all trading parties, including those who have an FTA. The Commission said that many of these partners would receive country-specific quotes proportionate to the volume they have historically produced. It said that "most of the EU FTA partners' market access will be reduced by a significant amount compared to the average 47% reduction foreseen in the Steel Regulation." The Commission stated that a "significant number" (?) of partners has provisionally agreed with these allocations. The Commission stated that the rules are needed to "protect the European Steel Industry from Overcapacity and Dumping Practices elsewhere in the World". It said that "persistent global steel overcapacity?remains as a serious problem on a global scale and continues to distort the international markets." The measure "restores fair competition on a market that has been affected by distortions due to overcapacity", it said. Eggert, Eurofer, said that to have a more significant impact on the steel industry, it may be necessary to extend the measure to downstream industries, such as those who laminate steel or stamp out sheets for cars. Bart Meijer and Phil Blenkinsop; Inti Landauro, Hugo Lhomedet, and Susan Fenton, edited by Sudip K. Gupta.
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McGeever: Why Trump's tariffs have a lot of bark but little bite
Donald Trump's favourite word is "tariff". His administration's unilateral protectionist trade policies of the 1930s were a cause for concern in the markets. The bark was worse than the bite. Just over a month has passed since Trump declared "Liberation Day," but the average U.S. Tariff rate is now lower than what many had feared for April 2025. At just under 10%, however, the daily effective rate before substitution is still four-times its level at the end 2024. It's also the highest, barring last year, since the early 1940s. Tariffs barely register on the financial markets of today. This is partly because investors are more concerned about real wars than trade wars. The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs is also not as bad as many people feared. This could be because the trade war coincided a technological boom. Perhaps that is too simplistic. It may be years before the full impact of redrawing geopolitical and trade alliances on the global economy is known. Unexpected negative shocks could be on the way. The fact that tariffs have had a muted impact on the economy over the last year, despite being statistically insignificant, can be partly explained by a simple fact: levies actually applied were lower than statutory rate. Pablo?D. makes this argument in a Brookings Institution article from April. Fajgelbaum of University of California, and Amit Khandelwal of Yale University. By December of last year, 57% or so of U.S. imported goods were still duty-free. That includes most goods from Canada and Mexico under the United ?States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which is up for review but remains in place. Tariffs at the border are often lower than headline rates due to other factors, including legal loopholes or special agreements. The retaliation to Trump's tariffs was mostly modest or short lived, with China being the only major trading partners who offered a firm and sustained response. Hyperscalers invested hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure and chips, which has helped boost global trade. According to the Brookings report, the net effect of tariffs has been between 0.1% and 0.1% of GDP. The findings are in line with the analysis of The Budget Lab at Yale. The report estimates that tariffs will cause the U.S. to lose 0.1% of its GDP over the long term, which is the equivalent of $30 billion in 2025 dollars. Other words, statistically significant, but not at all in the near future. Markets vs Real Economy Try telling that to U.S. customers, who are forced to pay 90% of Trump's Tariffs. In an April Federal Reserve report, the paper found that tariffs are solely responsible for the excess inflation of core goods from January 2025. The same paper, however, also indicated that the tariff pass-through is now essentially complete. It was, in other words, a price increase that happened only once, as the Trump Administration had claimed. If true, this would be good news for Americans whose personal savings rate, which has fallen to the lowest level in four years due to higher prices, is now below 3%. Another side of the story is also important. Tariffs are taxes that fall on the person who pays them, which is usually the consumer. They are a source of immediate revenue for the government, reaching $264 billion in 2017. This is more than three times the revenue in 2024 and represents 0.83% GDP, which is the highest since over a century. Theoretically, the revenue generated by tax cuts and higher spending should offset some of the impact on consumers. SLOW BURN? But investors shouldn't become complacent. Although trade uncertainty has decreased, it is still very high. According to the?Tax Foundation, the U.S. tariff policies have changed more than fifty times since Trump began his second term. There's no reason to think that 'that's it', especially given Trump's willingness to use tariffs to threaten foreign policy negotiations. Investors have largely shrugged these concerns off. Rebecca Harding is a trade economist, author and writer whose latest book "The World at Economic War" was published in late 2013. The cost of doing business internationally and the difficulty in establishing new trade routes will continue to rise as trade uncertainty increases. Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) will struggle to keep up with the demands. It's clear that the predictions of tariff doom by many economists have been wrong. However, this could be just a question of timing. Brexit is a cautionary tale. The UK economy didn't immediately crash after Britain voted to leave Europe in 2016. Ten years later, the damage to the economy is widely acknowledged. It is still unclear whether the slow-burning economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. will be similar. However, it's worth asking. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Fed raises interest rates and a strong dollar will cause gold to have its worst quarter since 13 years.
The dollar was firmer amid expectations that U.S. rates will be raised, and gold edged up from a near seven-month low. As of 1150 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,031.29 an ounce after hitting its lowest level in November 2025 earlier in session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 0.2% to $4.045.30/oz. "The failure to maintain gains (for gold), highlights the current fragile mood, where traders continue to?sell into strength instead of buying into weakness, which is a noticeable shift from behaviour seen in the past few years," said Saxo Bank Analyst Ole Hansen. Bullion fell more than 11% in the last month and is on course for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The precious metal was also on track for its first quarterly drop since 2024, and its largest quarterly percentage drop since the?June quarter?of 2013 Hansen said that prices must first break above $4100 to be considered a low. The dollar's strength, which was set to gain for the second consecutive month as markets priced higher odds of Fed rate increases, also weighed on bullion. CME FedWatch data shows that higher energy prices, fueled by the Middle East war, have erased expectations for a rate cut in the United States this year. Traders now see a 65% chance of an increase in September. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding material. The focus is now on the upcoming 'U.S. Employment data, such as the?ADP and nonfarm payrolls will provide clues about the future path of the U.S. The oil market is on course for its worst quarter since early 2020, as traders assess prospects for renewed U.S. diplomacy with Iran. Iran has said that reports of Doha talks this week are unfounded. As political risks surrounding the U.S. currency grow, many central banks are planning to reduce their dollar holdings rather than increase them over the next decade. An OMFIF study showed that currency is growing. Other than that, spot silver increased by 1.2%, to $59 an ounce. Platinum gained almost 1%, to $1.589.75, and palladium grew 2.4%, to $1.241.89. All three metals are headed towards quarterly and monthly losses.
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Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.
Asia's crude oil imports by sea?rose slightly in June, but remained near their lowest levels in over a decade due to the impact of the?Iran Conflict on shipments from Middle East. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region will receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the?20.39million bpd received in May and almost 2 million bpd more than the 18,77million bpd achieved in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28. The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict. The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still?well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks on certain ships. The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from just 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than half of the average 15.58 million barrels per day for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict. Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East will return to their pre-war level, and how long it will take. PRICES SEE SOLUTION Brent contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close from February 27, just before hostilities began. The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the heights of the conflict. Singapore?gasoil - the main component of diesel - closed at $111.15 per barrel on Monday. This is a 22% increase from the previous close on February 27, which was $91.42. Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27. As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks. How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is. The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about the safety of the Strait, causing them to restrict their movements. What China does over the next few months is another wildcard. By reducing imports dramatically, the world's largest crude oil importer has reduced the impact of restricted flows through Strait?of?Hormuz. Kpler predicts that China's seaborne landings will be only 5.80 million bpd for June, down from 6.80 million in May. This is the weakest two-month period since November 2015. The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd. China's refiners are likely to start purchasing cargoes once more, but only after August. The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high. Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect? What will happen to crude oil supply when the current surge in stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops? The crude oil market has shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in spite of the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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South African cities close as anti-migrant demonstrations gain momentum
On Tuesday, anti-immigrant protesters armed with wooden sticks and flags marched across South Africa. Some of the marches saw violence, but it was under heavy police protection. Shops were closed, while foreign workers stayed home. The "deadline", set by the demonstrators for all undocumented immigrants to leave the country on Tuesday, had been missed by thousands of foreigners?from other parts of Africa. Police with armoured cars and helicopters supported hundreds of protesters in parts of Johannesburg, the commercial capital, and Durban, the port city. They were armed with South African flags while carrying wooden batons. The jobs are taken by illegal immigrants. "It's not right," said Silindile, 31, who was part of a group chanting antimigrant slogans central Durban. Violence against migrants The deadline was interpreted by migrants as a physical danger. There were scattered signs violence at midday local (1000 GMT), but marches were mostly peaceful. The police said that they arrested some "looters" but did not provide any further information. In Thembisa (a suburb in the north of Johannesburg), rioters hurled stones at suspected migrants and police, while gunfire was heard sporadically near the central business district. The Daily Maverick, a national newspaper, reported that police fired shots and deployed tactical vehicles in Benoni (east Johannesburg) after 500 protesters threatened them. The police spokesperson didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The national broadcaster SABC said that protesters in the densely-populated township Soweto looted shacks of foreigners. Since the protests began, at least five people have died in violence. Thousands of people have had their homes and businesses vandalised or driven out. These attacks have occurred sporadically since 2008 in South Africa, and there is little distinction between those who entered the country legally and those who didn't. The March and March campaign group, led by an ex-radio presenter who was behind the recent protests, denies inciting violence. It also says that it is not responsible for any spontaneous anger of South Africans against undocumented immigrants. Jacinta ngobese said in an interview a couple of weeks ago that they were trying to channel the anger at the government. "Unfortunately, it is not possible for us to be in every community and tell them how they should behave. They live with them." Witnesses said that landlords in Durban, Johannesburg and other cities were removing foreign tenants illegally out of fear their buildings would be vandalised. Mabako Majole said, "All of these people were chased away by their landlords." He was standing next to around 100 people who were sleeping in the streets in Durban. "All of these people are legal." "They have documents." South Africans, mostly unemployed or poor, are expected to march in multiple cities. They blame foreigners for their plight. A military spokesperson confirmed that thousands of police officers were on duty and the military was on standby with an emergency budget 600 million rand (about $36.6 million). South Africa's reputation as an defender of human right after Nelson Mandela has been tarnished by the wave of anti-immigrant feeling and the failure of police to protect their victims. Social scientists claim that there is no evidence to support the claims made by immigrants. They are accused of taking jobs, driving criminality and placing pressure on public services. There are streets in the town where all of the shops are run by foreigners. Ethiopians are the owners of many shops in my hometown, Ulundi. Meluneki Dlamini (31 and unemployed) told the Durban march that this hurts people who were already there. Thirty years after the end of Apartheid in South Africa, it remains unequal, its economic growth is slow, and a third are unemployed. It is still Africa's biggest economy, and it continues to attract migrants. StatsSA estimates that the?immigrants population is around 3 million, or about 4%. This is a low percentage by international standards. VIGILANTES ARRESTED FOR POLITICAL RHETORIC HARDENENS Tebello Mosikili, Deputy National Police Commissioner, said that 103 criminal charges had been filed against anti-foreigner militants since March. The state has a responsibility to ensure peaceful demonstrations. While condemning violence, some politicians have expressed the concerns of protesters. In a Monday statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa stated that "South Africans are... deeply concerned about illegal immigration and deserve to be heard." "But the right of protest... does not permit people to intimidate or threaten others, or engage in acts vandalism or violent." South African officials have noted that Western countries also face similar tensions regarding immigration, which are often fueled by divisive politics or misinformation.
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Stocks soar in stellar quarter, dollar hits gold and the yen
On Tuesday, global stocks were on track to achieve their best performance in the second quarter of six years. Meanwhile, a resurgent US dollar drove the yen down to its lowest level in four decades and was heading for a fourth consecutive quarterly increase. In the last three months the Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and 'haphazardly' as hostilities between Iran and the U.S. waned, resulting in a fragile ceasefire and a 20% drop in the price of crude oil. A dramatic shift has also occurred in the expectations of U.S. interest rate, against the backdrop of an unstoppable rise in artificial intelligence stock prices. The MSCI All-World Index has increased by almost 14% in the past three months to new highs, its best performance for the second quarter since 2020. The majority of gains are due to a fervent rally in AI, especially in Asian markets where indexes from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan registered?double-digit percent gains. The S&P500 is up 14%, and the Nasdaq has gained 20%. Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: "The theme that has largely disappeared is monetary policy support." The futures market priced further rate reductions at the start of the year. Now, that's changed. This is largely due to the current situation in Iran and the increased commodity prices. "What we take away from this is that we don't expect any more cuts by the central banks. But we also don't anticipate a new cycle of hikes." Europe's STOXX 600 index, which has fewer AI beneficiaries than many Asian and U.S. indices, rose 1.1%. It is on track to achieve a gain of 10% for the quarter, after rising every month since march. U.S. Stock Futures?were between 0.1% and 0.2 % higher, indicating a modest rise at the opening bell. THE WINNING DOLLAR The dollar was the biggest winner in the foreign exchange markets this quarter, with a gain of 1.4% against a basket major currencies. Investors are building up bullish positions in record numbers, thanks to the remarkable change in the interest rate outlook for the United States, from a cut to a hike, owing to the unexpected strength of the U.S. economic and the persistent inflationary pressures that go beyond energy prices. Dollar's increase has caused gold to fall to its biggest quarterly drop in over a decade. The yen, on the other hand, has fallen to its weakest point in forty years and traded around 162.38 to a dollar on Tuesday. The yen was at its weakest point in 40 years, trading around 162.38 per dollar on Tuesday. Traders had been alerted to the possibility of a Japanese intervention by Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama. This week, the world's leading central bankers will gather in Sintra for the annual meeting of the European Central Bank. No one will be in the spotlight more than the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh who is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Warsh's focus on inflation during his first meeting as Fed head earlier this month led traders to price in the prospect that a rate increase will be implemented by October. However, some economists think the economy is strong enough and the inflation obvious enough to warrant an increase as early as July. Isabelle Mateos y Lago is the BNP Paribas 'group chief economist. She said: "Of all of the major central bankers, Fed policymakers are probably the only one where it seems plausible that they can go in July and hike the rate to get the issue out of the system, in a sense." "That's certainly not our case, but it's possible that they'd want to move forward and?get that out of the way." Before Warsh appears, Tuesday will bring a variety of European inflation data, U.S. consumer sentiment data for June, and the JOLTS monthly hirings-and-firings report. The clock is ticking down to the U.S. jobs report on Thursday. Dhara Ranasinghe contributed additional reporting from London, Tom Westbrook reported from Singapore, and Muralikumar Anantharaman edited the story.
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Oil analysts lower their oil forecasts after the reopening of Hormuz eases supply concerns
A poll on Tuesday showed that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first time since the Iran War began. This follows five consecutive months of increases. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about?prolonged disruptions in supply. According to the'monthly' survey of 31 economists, analysts and other experts, Brent crude will average $84.50 a barrel by 2026 compared to $90.44 last month. U.S. crude oil was projected to average $79.49 per barrel, down from the $84.63 estimate in May. These revisions represent a decline of more than 6% from estimates made in May. The forecasts jumped after the Iran conflict broke out at the end February, which disrupted the oil supply and drove the oil price to multi-year heights. Since then, oil benchmarks have fallen from their peaks of $126 per barrel of Brent and $120 per barrel of WTI. This is due to easing geopolitical conflicts and the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tobias Keller of UniCredit said that the bulk of geopolitical risks premium had already been unwound. He added that weaker demand and recovering Middle East flows would likely cap any further gains. According to the poll, on average, analysts expect Brent to fall from $84 in the third-quarter of 2026 to $79 in the fourth-quarter, then to mid-$70s in mid-2027. Some market participants warned that geopolitical risks may still support prices. How to handle returns of supplies as a risk? If the traffic in the Strait of?Hormuz returns to normal, the oil market will return to surplus supply. Frank Schallenberger, head of LBBW commodity research, said that prices would continue to fall in the second half 2026. During the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This cut off nearly a fifth of the global oil supply. This led to a dramatic drop in stocks and pushed the markets into deficit by 2026. Kim Fustier is the head of European Oil & Gas Research at HSBC. She said that "our 2026 balance estimates" show a market with a?deficit of 2 million barrels per day... and a return of a small surplus in the fourth quarter 2026 of 1 million bpd, assuming Gulf Production is restored to near-normal. Several respondents believe that OPEC+ will continue to increase output at a moderate pace as it tries to regain market share while preventing a sharp drop in prices. The International Energy Agency, in its first look ahead to 2027, said that the oil market would enter a significant overhang. Global supply is expected to increase by 8 million barrels per day, while demand will only rise by 2 million. DEMAND SOFTENS SUPPORT EYED Ahead According to the poll?oil consumption growth is expected to decrease by approximately 1.0 to 2.0 million barrels a day in 2026. Analysts say that the demand for oil has slowed due to a weaker Chinese economy, which is the world's largest importer. OPEC's 2026?oil growth forecast remained at 1.4 million barrels a day between February and April. It was then reduced to 1.2 million bpd by May, and finally to less than 1 million bpd by June. Goldman Sachs, a global stockpile of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) is cited by some participants as a trend that will improve demand in the future.
Heat forecast threatens record demand on US electric grid
The U.S. power systems are under pressure this week from a 'blistering heatwave' that will hit the East Coast and Midwest. This is expected to cause a record-breaking summer?demand, straining the system already strained by the surge in energy consumption?by electric vehicles and data centers. According to the latest forecast from PJM Interconnection (the largest regional grid that serves 67 million people), the record summer demand for electric power is 166.3 gigawatts on Thursday evening. PJM's record for summer demand, set in 2006 at 165.6 GW, is the highest ever.
PJM has described the "unlikely, but plausible" scenarios that could lead to a demand of up 169 GW.
The regional grid operator, PJM, serves 67,000,000 customers in the Mid-Atlantic region, South, and Washington D.C. It has a total of?180.2 GW in generation capacity, plus 8 GW that comes from programs to reward customers who reduce their 'electricity usage in times of emergency. The temperature is expected to reach 100degF, or 38degC, from Boston to Washington, D.C., close to Northern Virginia's vast hub of data centers. This will cause a surge in demand for air conditioning, which will put additional strain on power grids before the July 4th celebrations.
New York ISO, grid operator of New York, warned that when temperatures and humidity rise, an increased demand for air conditioning can strain the generation and transmission resources. According to NYISO, peak demand in New York will be around 32 GW this Thursday, which is just short of the previous record of almost 34 GW.
According to Midcontinent Independent System Operator's (MISO) forecasts, MISO is the regional grid operator of 15 U.S. States in the Midwest and South. It expects to surpass the peak demand record set by 127.1 GW.
MISO will rely heavily on PJM to meet peak demand. PJM's executives are cautious about the operator's ability to handle "a fundamental mismatch" between how quickly demand is increasing and how quickly new supply can be built and connected.
In a report published in May, PJM stated that "the region is simultaneously facing hyperscale data centres adding load at an unheard of pace, accelerated economic and policy-driven retirements,?and?new power plants which take twice as long to construct and?cost double as much as ten years ago."
PJM operates on a thin 'buffer' against power plants tripping off and?persistent congested transmission lines. On Monday evening for instance, PJM's strain was apparent as the real-time wholesale electric prices soared to over $1,600 per Megawatt Hour, compared to less than $40 earlier in that day. The evening price reflected the heavy congestion of high-voltage power lines during peak electricity use. Reporting by Tim McLaughlin, Editing by Chizu nomiyama
(source: Reuters)