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US growth accelerates in the first quarter

The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter, thanks to a resurgence in government spending following a crippling shutdown. However, the increase is only temporary because the war against Iran will likely drive up gasoline prices while squeezing household budgets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product grew?at an annualized rate of 2.0% last quarter.

The economy grew at a pace of 0.5% in the quarter October-December, as federal spending contracted by 1.16 percentage points. This was the largest drop since the first quarter 1994. The economists polled had predicted GDP growth to increase at a rate of 2.3% annually. Estimates varied from a contraction of 0.2% to a growth rate of 3.9%. The growth was largely due to a partial reverse in government expenditures.

The boom in artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers to support the technology continue to drive business equipment spending. But growth in consumer expenditure, which is the engine of the economy's growth, has slowed even more. Even before the U.S. - Israel war with Iran, it was already losing momentum. Americans are frustrated by the cost of living and disapprove of President Donald Trump's economic management. This is a risk to the Republican Party as it heads into the November congressional midterm elections. Financial markets expect that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates constant, perhaps until 2027, if the labor market does not deteriorate. The U.S. Central Bank left its overnight benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75 percent on Wednesday, citing 'increasing concerns about inflation. In the first quarter, employment growth averaged 68,000 new jobs per month compared to 20,000 monthly gains during the same time last year. Some economists blamed Trump's immigration and trade policies for the labor market slowdown compared to that of 2023.

The weak labor market has dampened wage growth. Tariffs increased the price of certain goods, even though inflation was relatively moderate. Economists say consumers are relying on their savings to maintain spending. They also claim that this cannot continue indefinitely. In 'February, the saving rate was 4%. Economists warn that higher inflation may offset some of the anticipated stimulus from tax reductions. The boost from tax refunds is expected to fade quickly, leading to weaker spending in this year.

The war in the Middle East is expected to have a negative impact on the economy from the second quarter. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Paul Simao & Chizu Nomiyama

(source: Reuters)