Latest News

As hopes for a Fed rate cut in December fade, equity and bond prices drop.

As hopes for a Fed rate cut in December fade, equity and bond prices drop.
As hopes for a Fed rate cut in December fade, equity and bond prices drop.

The steep drop in Wall Street stocks on Thursday dragged MSCI’s global equity index lower, while U.S. Treasury rates rose. Investor hopes of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in December faded as a chorus hawkish remarks from central bank officials. The dollar fell in currencies despite hawkish comments from several Fed officials after the House of Representatives passed a bill to reopen U.S. Government late Wednesday, and President Donald Trump approved it.

Investors have been buying stocks in recent sessions, anticipating a U.S. reopening of the government after a 43-day record shutdown that disrupted food assistance for millions of Americans, left hundreds and thousands of federal employees unpaid, and snarled up air traffic, while also halting important economic data releases.

Trump administration officials have shattered hopes of a more accurate view of the U.S. economic situation in the near future.

Kevin Hassett, White House economist, told Fox News, that while the government would have an employment number for October, the data on the U.S. rate of unemployment may never be released because the survey was not conducted due to the shutdown. Multiple Fed officials also slammed the idea that rates would be cut by the central bank in December.

Alberto Musalem - the head of St Louis Federal Reserve Bank - reiterated on Thursday that his policy is more neutral than modestly restrictive. He said there was little room for further easing without becoming too accommodative.

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that interest rate policies should be restrictive to bring down inflation levels.

Neel Kahkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, said that he is seeing mixed signals in the economy. He said that the inflation rate, which is around 3%, is too high. Meanwhile, parts of labor markets "appear to be under pressure." Mary Daly, the San Francisco Federal Reserve president, said earlier that the Fed's goals have been balanced after it cut interest rates two times this year. She said that the rate of decline in services inflation was not consistent and that she was more concerned about a continued slowdown in labor demand.

CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders bets on December rate cuts have fallen to 49.6% from 62.9% as of Wednesday.

Bob Doll said, "Markets had been expecting a rate cut in December, but we may not see it," referring to the cautious Fed remarks on this idea. "Most are warning us that it is not a gimme, just as the Fed Chair said when he gave this presser following the last Fed Meeting. It's not a new idea, but the public didn't accept it.

Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise. He said that investors are worried because of a lack of clarity regarding the U.S. economic health.

What you see today is a risk off assessment. Saglimbene stated that we're going to continue getting a cloudy view of economic data.

He said that with the market showing signs of concern over high valuations of heavyweight technology stocks and those linked to artificial intelligence, it is not surprising for investors to "take a step back, sell down the losers and move into defensive areas of market". The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 708.88 points or 1.47% to 47,545.04, while the S&P 500 lost 108.91 or 1.59% to 6,741.94; and the Nasdaq Composite was down 537.47 or 2.30% to 22,869.43 at 2:45 p.m.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 11.50 points or 1.14% to 1,000.28.

EUROPEAN INDEXES DROP AFTER HItting Records

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at a loss of 0.61%, after reaching a record high. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 index also lost 0.66%. Prices were lower in U.S. Treasuries and yields rose as investors lowered their expectations of imminent rate cuts due to lingering uncertainties over inflation and sharp divisions between Fed policymakers about the direction the U.S. Economy and monetary Policy will take. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 2.7 basis point to 4,106% from 4.079% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds rose 3.7 basis point to 4.6986%. The yield on the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve, increased 1.9 basis points, to 3.585%. Five officials with knowledge of the matter said that European financial stability officials are debating creating an alternative to Federal Reserve financing backstops, by pooling the dollars held by central banks outside the U.S., in order to reduce their dependence on the U.S. during the Trump administration. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, fell 0.36%, to 99.12. The euro rose 0.41% to $1.164. The dollar fell 0.23% against the Japanese yen to reach 154.42. Oil futures on the energy market settled a little higher, after a sharp drop in the previous session. Investors weighed global oversupply concerns against looming Lukoil sanctions. U.S. crude oil settled up by 0.34% or 20 cents at $58.69 per barrel. Brent settled at $63.01 a barrel, an increase of 0.48% or 30 cents on the day.

The gold price fell after reaching a three-week-high earlier in the session amid the general market sell-off that followed the reopening the U.S. Government. Spot gold dropped 0.7% to $4169.10 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.13%, to $4199.00 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton and Ed Osmond in London, and Marc Jones in New York; and Stephanie Kelly and Sinead carew in New York)

(source: Reuters)