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Stocks surge in late trading as US shutdown looms

On Tuesday, caution ruled the world markets. The dollar and equity prices shook in choppy trading and gold briefly hit a record-high on concerns that a possible U.S. shutdown would delay important jobs data. Donald Trump stated that the United States was likely headed for its 15th shutdown since 1981 and his administration would make irreversible decisions in this scenario. As investors prepared for the shutdown, the dollar fell broadly while U.S. stock markets managed to recover early losses and end slightly higher.

The possibility of a U.S. shutdown puts the spotlight on jobs. A government shut down would delay this Friday's release of important employment statistics. This report, released by the Department of Labor on Tuesday, showed that U.S. hiring was down in August and job openings were up marginally.

The Federal Reserve could cut rates again next year despite the resilient consumer spending, if labor market conditions remain weak.

Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who is the head of U.S. Policy, said that a full-government shutdown on October 1, appears to be more likely.

The U.S. stock market suffered modest losses throughout the day, before making gains in the last hours of trading. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%. Wall Street's gains Tuesday were the culmination of a stellar month for U.S. stock prices. The S&P 500 had its best September ever with a 3.5% gain.

The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.4% after the late surge in U.S. stocks.

The Nikkei, Japan's stock market, closed at a loss of 0.25%. The STOXX 600 rose 1% for the month. This is its best performance since May.

Shaniel Ramjee is the co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division.

"The earnings picture is improving quite significantly at the same moment that central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, and global growth continues to be good." The Australian dollar gained after the central banks held rates at their current levels, as was widely expected. Oil prices dropped more than 1% due to the prospect of increased production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September.

A GOLDEN MONTH

Gold's impressive rally was boosted by the threat of a government shutdown. Gold briefly reached a record of $3,871.45 an ounce before trading down on the day. It is on track to achieve its largest monthly percentage gain in July 2020.

The dollar fell 0.5% to 147.9yen while the euro remained flat at $1.17355. Both the Swiss Franc and the pound also firmed up against the dollar.

The dollar index is expected to finish September with little change.

ING currency analysts wrote in a report that the yen would likely outperform as a hedge against a U.S. shutdown.

The Fed will be calculating the timing of rate reductions based on the September employment report, which is due this Friday.

The Fed's meeting on October 29 could be thrown into confusion by a prolonged government shutdown.

China's purchasing manager's index increased to 49.8 from 49.4 at the end of August. This is below 50, which separates growth from contraction.

The report suggested that producers were waiting for more stimulus to boost the domestic demand as well as clarification on a U.S. Trade Deal.

China's blue chip CSI300 Index gained almost 0.5%. This is the longest streak of gains since October 2017, and it was also its fifth consecutive month. Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%. Recent data indicated that inflation could be higher than expected in the third quarter, and the economic outlook was uncertain.

The data that showed an increase in inflation in four important German states did not have a significant impact on the market. The oil price remained weaker because of an expected production increase by OPEC+, and the resumption in Iraq's Kurdistan. Brent crude oil fell by 1.3%, to $67.10 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.5%, to $62.51.

(source: Reuters)