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Caution is urged as the US government shutdown approaches

On Tuesday, caution ruled the world markets. The dollar and stocks fell and gold briefly hit record highs as investors worried that a possible U.S. shutdown would delay important jobs data.

Donald Trump stated that the United States was likely headed for its 15th shutdown since 1981 and that his administration would be able to make irreversible decisions in this scenario. Investors prepared for a government shutdown that would begin after a midnight deadline passed to come up with a new funding agreement. The dollar fell and U.S. stock prices also dropped.

The prospect of a U.S. shutdown puts the spotlight on jobs. A government shut down would delay Friday's important employment figures, and instead focus attention on the Labor Department's JOLTS Report from Tuesday. This report showed that U.S. hiring decreased in August but job openings rose marginally.

The Federal Reserve could cut rates again next year despite the resilient consumer spending, if labor market conditions remain weak.

Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who is the head of U.S. Policy, said that a full-government shutdown on October 1, appears to be more likely.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. Wall Street's lackluster performance weighed on the MSCI All-World Index, which was flat.

The Nikkei, Japan's stock market, closed at a loss of 0.25%. The STOXX 600 rose 1% for the month. This is its best performance since May.

China's blue chip CSI300 Index rose nearly 0.5%. This is the longest streak of gains since October 2017 and it marks its fifth consecutive month.

Overall, the outlook for equities remains positive, as U.S. shares are expected to end September with a gain of more than 3%, and European stocks have had their best month since last May.

Shaniel Ramjee is the co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division.

"The earnings picture is improving quite significantly at the same moment that central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, and global growth continues to be good." The Australian dollar gained after the central banks held policy rates at their current levels, as was widely expected. Oil prices dropped over 1% due to the prospect of increased production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September.

A GOLDEN MONTH The risk of a shutdown has added to the stunning rally. Gold briefly reached a record high of $3.871.45 an ounce, before trading lower for the day. It is on track to achieve its largest monthly percentage gain in July 2020.

The dollar fell 0.6% to 147.70yen while the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1757. Both the Swiss Franc and the pound also gained a little against the dollar.

The dollar index is expected to finish September with little change, despite the recent 0.3% decline.

The uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown increased demand for U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds and pushed the yield to 4.1329%.

ING currency analysts wrote in a report that the yen would likely outperform as a hedge against a U.S. shutdown.

The Fed will be calculating the timing of rate reductions based on the September employment report, which is due this Friday.

The Fed's meeting on October 29 could be thrown into confusion by a prolonged government shutdown.

China's purchasing manager's index increased to 49.8 from 49.4 at the end of August. This is below 50, which separates growth from contraction.

The report suggested that producers were waiting for more stimulus to boost the domestic demand as well as clarification on a U.S. Trade Deal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%. Recent data indicated that inflation could be higher than expected in the third quarter, and the economic outlook was uncertain.

The data that showed an increase in inflation in four important German states did not have a significant impact on the market. The oil price remained weaker because of an expected production increase by OPEC+, and the resumption in Iraq's Kurdistan. Brent crude oil fell by 1.3%, to $67.10 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.3%, to $62.60.

(source: Reuters)