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As a possible US shutdown looms, stocks rise, the dollar drops, and gold soars.

Investors prepared for the possibility of a U.S. shutdown, which would delay the publication of September payrolls and other important data due this week. Gold surged to record levels, fueled by the drop in the dollar as well as investor fears about the potential ramifications of an U.S. Government shutdown. Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Democratic and Republican leaders of Congress on Monday evening to discuss the extension of government funding. A shutdown will begin on Wednesday if there is no agreement. This coincides with the day that new U.S. Tariffs are implemented for heavy trucks, patented medicines and other items. Analysts attribute investors' optimism about a U.S. shutdown to the memory of the recent shallow drop in the equity markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.5%.

This helped the MSCI All-World Index gain 0.4%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index rose by 0.2%. It is on track to increase by 1.1% in September, marking its third consecutive month of gains.

The longest shutdown (34 days) occurred under Trump's initial administration. The S&P 500 fell initially by 2.1%, but recovered quickly," said Nicole Inui of HSBC Global Research, who is the head of equity strategy for Americas. Alastair Pinninger, global equity strategist and head of emerging markets, also commented.

If the Federal Reserve meets on October 29, it could be blinded by the economic situation if the Federal Reserve closes the market for a long time.

Analysts at BofA wrote that if the shutdown continues beyond the Fed's meeting, it will be the Fed who relies on private data to make policy decisions. On the margin, this could lower the probability of a cut in October, but only marginally.

The markets indicate that there is a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% chance of another one in December.

Analysts at BofA estimated that a shutdown would only subtract 0.1 percent from the economic growth each week, noting in the past the minimal impact it had on the financial markets.

They warned that if the government used the closure as an excuse to permanently lay off workers, it could have a greater impact on consumer confidence and payrolls. The outcome of a meeting between U.S. Generals and Admirals, convened by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Quantico on Tuesday is uncertain. Trump is expected to attend.

Q4 IS GOOD FOR STOCKS

Analysts expected that equities would be supported by a new quarter of buying, which is historically a good one for stocks.

Bond markets saw 10-year Treasury yields drop, dropping 4.6 basis points, to 4.1406%. Investors were pushed last week to lower their expectations of how low Fed rate could go.

This week's calendar is packed with central bank speakers, including at least five each from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.945 after benefiting last week from a batch of positive economic news.

The MUFG strategist Lee Hardman stated that "our forecast for the U.S. Dollar to weaken even further heading into the year-end assumes the Fed will deliver another two 25-basis point cuts by the year's end as the labour markets remain weak."

The euro increased by 0.2%, to $1.17255. It is still at the lower end of its recent range between $1.1646 and $1.1918.

The dollar dropped 0.6% to 148.6yen after a rally of just over 1% the previous week. It has also moved away from its September low at 145.50.

Gold prices on commodity markets reached an all-time record high of $3,833.37 per ounce before retracing slightly to $3,828.17, a 1.8% increase. Crude oil prices dropped as the pipeline that connects the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq with Turkey began to flow crude for the first time since 2-1/2 years. OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barges per day during its next Sunday meeting.

Brent fell by 3.5% to $67.68 per barrel while U.S. crude dropped by 3.8% to $63.21 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)