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The world awaits Iran's reaction after Trump claims US 'obliterates nuclear sites'
On Sunday, the world was waiting for Iran's reaction after Donald Trump announced that the U.S. "obliterated", Tehran's nuclear sites. The U.S. joined Israel in the largest Western military action since 1979 against the Islamic Republic. Tehran pledged to defend itself no matter what. The damage seen from space was caused by 30,000-pound bunker-buster U.S. bombs that crashed into the mountain over the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran. The Iranians fired another round of missiles that caused many injuries and destroyed buildings in Tel Aviv. In an attempt to avoid a full-scale war with the U.S. Superpower, the country has yet to act on its threats to retaliate against the United States - by either targeting U.S. base or trying to choke-off global oil supplies. Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister in Istanbul, said that Tehran would be considering all possible reactions. He said that Tehran would not return to diplomacy unless it had taken retaliatory measures. The U.S. has shown that they do not respect international law. He said that they only understood the language of force and threat. Trump called the strikes "a spectacular success" in his televised announcement. "Iran's nuclear enrichment plants have been totally and completely destroyed." Iran, the Middle East bully, must now find peace. He said that if they don't, future attacks will be much more powerful and easier. His administration insisted that there had not been any orders for a wider war against the hardline Shi'ite clerical regime that has ruled Iran from 1979. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said to reporters at the Pentagon that "this mission was and has never been about regime-change." "The President authorized a precision operation in order to neutralise threats to our national interest posed by Iran's nuclear program." U.S. Vice-President JD Vance stated that Washington is not at war against Iran, but rather with its nuclear program. He added that this has been delayed by a long time because of the U.S. involvement. The Iranian parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf with Oman, and shares by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Nearly a quarter of all oil transported around the globe passes through this area. Press TV in Iran said that the Supreme National Security Council would have to approve the closure of the Strait. The council is led by a member appointed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is based in Gulf of Mexico and has been tasked to keep it open. If the Gulf Strait were closed, the oil prices would skyrocket, the economy would crash and there was a high likelihood that a conflict could arise. In a Fox News Interview, U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio warned Iran against retaliating for the U.S. strike, saying that such an action would be "the biggest mistake they've made." Rubio told CBS's "Face the Nation," that the United States have "other targets" they can target, but "we achieved our goal." Later, he added: "There is no military operation planned against Iran right now unless -- unless they mess about." BUNKER BUSTERS Israel has stated that its goal is to destroy Iran's nuke programme. It launched the war on Iran with a surprise strike on June 13th. Only the United States has the 30,000-pound bombs and batwing B2 aircraft that can drop them to destroy underground targets such as Iran's Fordow uranium-enrichment plant, which is built under a mountain. Satellite images taken after the attack showed damage to both the mountain and the entrances near the site. IAEA, the U.N. nuclear monitor, reported that no increase in radiation levels off-site had been reported following the U.S. attacks. According to a senior Iranian source, the vast majority of highly enriched uranium in Fordow was moved before the attack. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said that while it is obvious that U.S. aircraft have hit the Fordow nuclear site, it's not possible to estimate the damage underground yet. Iranians who were contacted by expressed their fears at the prospect that a larger war would involve the United States. "Our future looks bleak." "It's like being in a horror film," Bita, a 36-year-old teacher from Kashan, central city, said, before the phone was cut. Residents have fled to the countryside from Tehran, a city with ten million residents, to escape Israeli bombing. Iranian authorities claim that over 400 people, mostly civilians, have died since Israel began its attacks. Iran launched missiles at Israel in the last nine days. This is the first time that the projectiles penetrated Israel’s defenses. The elite Revolutionary Guards claimed to have fired 40 missiles in the latest round of fire at Israel overnight. On Sunday, air raid sirens were heard in most of Israel, sending millions to their safe rooms. Aviad Chernovsky (40) of Tel Aviv emerged from his bomb shelter only to discover that the house he lived in had been completely destroyed by a direct strike. "It is not easy for us to live in Israel right now, but we are strong." He said, "We know we will win." Israel has killed a large number of Iran's senior military leaders in the nine days since it began its war. It targeted residential buildings and bases where they slept. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, has openly spoken of the possibility to continue until the Islamic Republic’s clerical leaders are overthrown. He denied that this was his main objective. Trump oscillated between offering to end this war through diplomacy and joining it. At one point, he even publicly mused about the death of Iran's supreme ruler. It is his biggest foreign policy bet of his career that he decided to fight. Netanyahu congratulated Trump on a "bold decision". Yair Lapid, the Israeli opposition leader, praised Trump as well. He said that now the world is a safer place.
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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks reached record highs after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuke sites, which investors believe will likely prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon anytime soon. The broad Tel Aviv 125 closed 1.8% higher. This brings the gains in the last week to almost 8%, while the blue-chip TA-35 rose 1.5%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. But for over a week now, the local markets have praised Israel's action in Iran. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. The shekel doesn't trade on Sunday, but has risen from $3.61 per dollar in June to $3.48 on Friday. It is up about 1% for the month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, perhaps related to the prospect closer ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." The question is to what extent the sharp gains in last week's market have already been priced in. In the initial reaction, a plausible scenario would include further increases in corporate bonds and government bonds. (Reporting and Editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.
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Tel Aviv stocks reach record highs following US strike on Iran nuclear sites
Israeli stocks rose on Sunday for the sixth time in a row, reaching new all-time records after U.S. attacks on Iran's nucleus sites. Investors believe that this will likely stop Tehran from developing atomic weapons any time soon. In afternoon trading, the broad Tel Aviv 125 Index was up 1.3% and the blue-chip TA-35 index was up 1.2%. Shares rose in all five sessions of last week after Israel struck Iranian targets, including military and nuclear, prior to the surprise U.S. attack on Saturday. Ronen Menachem, chief markets economist at Mizrahi Tefahot, said: "The destruction by the U.S. of Iran's nuclear facilities is a positive event... for improving regional security and reducing Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities." It's a game changer." Israel launched its punishing attack on Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile factories, and military commanders starting on June 13. This was met by retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel. U.S. president Donald Trump claimed that he has " Obliterated The main Iranian nuclear sites were attacked overnight by massive bunker-busting bombs. This was in addition to an Israeli attack in a new and significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has vowed its defense and has responded by firing a barrage of missiles on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of scores of people as well as the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv. Still, the local markets have been cheering Israel's action in Iran for more than one week. The shekel is also gaining value, and Israel's premium for risk has decreased. The bond prices rose by as much as 0.2% Sunday. Sunday is not a trading day for the shekel, but it has risen from $3.61 to $3.48 per dollar since June 11, and is now up about 1% in one month. Menachem stated that "looking at the medium to long term -- which is important for many strategic investors -- it could be a real opportunity, possibly related the prospect of stronger ties between Saudi Arabia and the American axis." (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum and Giles Elgood.)
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Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 a barrel on Sunday night after the U.S. launched an attack against Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on a Middle East conflict in an escalation as Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer. SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84. Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium. Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv. Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions. He said that the direction of oil price will depend on if there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation in conflict, resulting a diminishing risk premium. On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said the country could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second parliament member said that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened. The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world. SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they viewed this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude. Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for too long. He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London; editing by Alex Lawler, Clelia Oziel, and Robert Harvey.
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Three dead and dozens injured in Algeria after falling from the upper stand
The Algerian Ministry of Health announced on Sunday that three spectators were killed and over 70 injured when they fell from an upper stand in a stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. The Algerian Ministry of Health said that the Beni Messous University Hospital had received 38 injured patients, and three deaths, in a Facebook statement. "Ben Aknoun Hospital, too, received 27 injured persons, while Bab El Oued Hospital, received 16," it added. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian President, offered his condolences to those injured and wished them a quick recovery. In an earlier Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." The club is yet to make a comment about the deaths. Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling onto the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. Reporting by Chiranjit ojha, Bengaluru; Ahmad El Ghannam, Cairo; Editing and Bernadette baum.
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Bahrain, Kuwait prepare for possible Iran conflict spread
Bahrain and Kuwait -- both home to U.S. military bases -- prepared on Sunday in case the Iran conflict spreads to their territories. Bahrain asked drivers to avoid the main roads, and Kuwait set up shelters within a ministry complex following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuke facilities. U.S. forces attacked Iran's main nuclear sites on Saturday night, and President Donald Trump warned Tehran that it will face even more devastating attacks if the country does not accept peace. Tehran warned that if the United States attacked it, it would target American assets, including U.S. bases in the region. Bahrain is the home of the U.S. Navy 5th Fleet, and Kuwait has several U.S. military bases. Bahrain's interior minister said on X that "in light of recent developments regarding regional security, we urge residents and citizens to only use main roads when absolutely necessary to maintain public health and safety, and to allow relevant authorities to efficiently use the roads." According to the Civil Service Bureau, Bahrain has also instructed 70% of its government employees to continue working from home until further notice on Sundays. The reason given was escalating tensions. The Finance Ministry said that Kuwait has set up shelters at the country's Ministries Complex, an expansive compound of buildings which houses several government departments including the Ministries of Justice and Finance. Bahraini authorities said earlier this week that they have activated a plan national and a civil emergency centre national to prepare for emergencies. They also tested warning sirens throughout the country. The regional media reported that 33 shelters had been set up in the country.
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What is the risk of nuclear contamination from an attack on Iran?
Donald Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear sites were "obliterated", including the Fordow deep-buried facility, in military strikes carried out overnight. The U.S. also joined Israel's attacks on June 13th. The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the U.S. military attacks on Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities posed limited contamination risks. Which Iranian nuclear sites have been hit so far? The U.S. Military struck sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed that Iran's nuclear enrichment sites had been "completely obliterated". These attacks come after Israelis announced attacks on nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan Arak, and Tehran. Israel claims it wants to prevent Iran from building a nuke, and the U.S. insists that Tehran will not be allowed such weapons. Iran denies ever seeking nuclear arms. IAEA, the international nuclear watchdog, has reported damages to the uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz and the complex of nuclear facilities at Isfahan including the Uranium Conversion Facility as well as to centrifuge production plants in Karaj and Tehran. Israel has also attacked Arak (also known as Khondab). IAEA reported that Israeli military strikes damaged the nearby heavy water plant and the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor which were still under construction. IAEA stated that it was not in operation and did not contain any nuclear material. Therefore, there were no effects radiological. The heavy-water reactors are capable of producing plutonium that, along with enriched uranium can be used in the production of an atom bomb. What are the risks of these strikes? Before the U.S. airstrikes, experts had said that Israel's attacks posed only limited contamination risks. Darya Dolzikova is a senior researcher at London's think-tank RUSI. She said that attacks on the facilities at the front of the nuclear fuel-cycle - where uranium gets prepared to be used in a reactor -- pose chemical risks, and not radiological ones. UF6, also known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6), is a concern at enrichment plants. She said that when UF6 reacts with the water vapour in air, it creates harmful chemicals. In low wind, it is expected that the material will settle near the facility. In high winds, however, the material may travel further, but also disperse more widely. Underground facilities have a lower risk of hazardous chemicals dispersing. Simon Bennett, the head of the civil safety and protection unit at the University of Leicester, in Britain, stated that the risks to the environment are minimal when subterranean installations are struck because "you are burying nuclear materials in thousands of tons of concrete, rock, and earth". James Acton is the co-director of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program. He said that uranium was barely radioactive before it went into a reactor. He added that "the chemical form of uranium is toxic, but it doesn't travel long distances. It's also barely radioactive." He said that attacks on enrichment sites were unlikely to have significant consequences off-site, while opposing Israel's campaign. What about nuclear reactants? A strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor on the Gulf Coast would be of major concern. On June 19, Israel's military announced that it had hit a Bushehr site, but later said the announcement was an error. Israel wants to prevent any nuclear catastrophe. Richard Wakeford is an honorary professor of Epidemiology at the University of Manchester. He said that while the contamination of the area surrounding enrichment plants would "mainly be a chemical issue", the extensive damage of large power reactors was "a different story". He added that radioactive elements could be released into the ocean or through a plume containing volatile materials. Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that an attack on Bushehr could "cause an absolute radiological disaster". Why are Gulf States particularly concerned? The Gulf States' impact on any attack on Bushehr will be worsened if the Gulf waters are contaminated, putting at risk a vital source of desalinated water. A source familiar with the situation said that the Gulf Cooperation Council is on high alert in order to monitor any possible contamination of the environment after the attacks. The source confirmed that there have been no radiological signs so far. She also said the GCC has emergency plans in place for the case of any threat to food and water security in the Gulf. According to authorities, in the United Arab Emirates desalinated drinking water is more than 80%. In Bahrain, 100% of groundwater was reserved for contingency planning. Qatar is 100% dependent on desalinated drinking water. According to the General Authority for Statistics, in Saudi Arabia, which is a larger country with more natural groundwater reserves, 50% of water supplies will be desalinated by 2023. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have no access to any other coast. While Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE can draw water from more than one sea, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all crammed along the Gulf shoreline. If a natural catastrophe, an oil spill or even a targeted assault were to disrupt a water desalination facility, hundreds of thousands would lose their access to freshwater instantly, said Nidal Ilal, professor and director of the Water Research Center at New York University Abu Dhabi. He said that coastal desalination plants were particularly vulnerable to regional hazards such as oil spills and possible nuclear contamination.
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In Algeria, one spectator is dead and several others injured after falling from the upper balcony
Media reports on Saturday said that one spectator was killed and others injured when they fell from the upper stands of the stadium after MC Alger won the Algerian top division league for the second consecutive season. MC Alger confirmed that one of its supporters died in an incident at the 5th July Stadium in Algiers. The Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune offered his condolences to the family and wished a quick recovery for those injured. In an Instagram post, MC Alger wrote: "It was with great sorrow and sadness that we heard the news about our supporter Younes Aguzzi who died after falling from the upper seats." Local media reported that the spectators fell because a fence on the upper tier of the stand had broken. El Heddaf TV posted a Facebook video showing a part of the railing falling into the lower tier. Reports said that the injured spectators were rushed by ambulance to the hospital where MC Alger staff, players and administrators went to donate blood. The trophy presentation ceremony had been postponed. (Reporting by Chiranjit Ojha in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
Oil prices to rise as US strikes against Iran increase supply risk premium
Market analysts say that oil is expected to increase by $3-5 per barrel when trading resumes Sunday evening, after the U.S. launched an attack on Iran over the weekend. Gains are only expected to accelerate if Iran responds harshly and disrupts the supply of oil.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he "obliterated", Iran's nuclear sites with overnight strikes. He joined an Israeli assault on an escalation in conflict in the Middle East. Tehran pledged to defend itself. Iran is OPEC’s third largest crude producer.
Jorge Leon, former OPEC official and head of Rystad's geopolitical research, said that a spike in oil prices is to be expected. Even in the absence immediate retaliation by the US, markets will likely price in a higher risk premium.
SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye wrote in a report that Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, could rise $3 to $5 a barrel at market opening. Brent crude settled at $77.01 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.84.
Ole Hansen is an analyst at Saxo Bank. He said that crude oil could open up to $4-$5 dollars higher with the possibility of some long positions being unwound.
Crude had settled down on Friday after the U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice on the U.S. Treasury Department website.
Brent has increased by 11%, while WTI is up around 10%. The conflict started on June 13, when Israel began to target Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv.
Oil's gains have been limited by the current stable supply conditions, and the availability spare production capacity from other OPEC member countries. Giovanni Staunovo is an analyst at UBS. He said that risk premiums typically decline when there are no supply disruptions.
He said that the direction of oil price will depend on whether or not there are disruptions in supply, which would result in higher prices. Or if there's a deescalation of the conflict resulting in a declining risk premium.
On June 19, a senior Iranian legislator said that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against its enemies. However, a second member of the parliament stated that this would only be done if Tehran's vital interest were threatened.
The Strait is responsible for about a fifth (or 5%) of all oil consumed in the world.
SEB stated that any spillover or closure of the Strait would "significantly" lift oil prices. However, they saw this scenario more as a tail-risk than a base-case given China's dependence on Gulf crude.
Ajay Parmar said that it was unlikely Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for a long time.
He said that "most of Iran's exports of oil to China pass through the strait, and Trump will not tolerate the inevitable oil price spike in the future for long." The diplomatic pressure from both the largest economies around the world would be equally significant. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London, Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Robert Harvey in London and Seher Dareen and Arunima in Bengaluru. Editing by Alex Lawler and Clelia Oziel. Giles Elgood.
(source: Reuters)