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Stocks rise, dollar falls as US-China talks are in the spotlight

The dollar fell on Monday as the United States and China began talks in London to settle a trade conflict between their two largest economies.

The dispute has gone beyond titt-for-tat trade tariffs and now includes restrictions on rare earths. This could cripple global supply chains, slowing growth. U.S. president Donald Trump said that his administration is doing well, and he's getting good feedback as U.S. officials are holding the talks with China.

The market considers dialogues with Beijing to be progress, regardless of whether they produce tangible results. "The market will take the administration at its word until it is proven otherwise," said Jake Dollarhide of Longbow Asset Management, Tulsa.

The Dow ended flat, as Morgan Stanley downgraded McDonald's to "equal weight" and Travelers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09 points to 42,761.76, while the S&P 500 gained 5.52 points or 0.09% to 6,005.88. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 61.28 or 0.31% to 19,591.24.

The S&P 600 index rose 0.9%, indicating that small-cap stocks have outperformed.

MSCI's global stock index gained 1.94 points or 0.22% to 893.90, and is on course for its second consecutive session of gains. In five of the six recent sessions, it has increased.

In Europe, STOXX 600 closed down by 0.07%, ending a winning streak of four sessions, its longest consecutive run in three weeks.

The U.S. Dollar fell against most major currencies as caution in anticipation of trade talks offset optimism about a better than expected U.S. Employment Report on Friday.

In a post on social media, Trump stated that U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick, as well as Trade Rep Jamieson Greer, would be representing Washington at the London talks.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Vice Premier He Lifeng attended the first China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultative Mechanism meeting in Britain. U.S. data on the economy showed that wholesale inventories in April increased due to stockpiling prescription medications in anticipation of tariffs by the Trump administration. Investors will also be awaiting U.S. data on inflation that could affect expectations about the timing of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Morgan Stanley analysts said that they expect May to be the beginning of a series of core inflation readings which will become increasingly stronger. The impact from tariffs is expected to peak in the third quarter, and then begin fading in the fourth.

According to LSEG, the market is not expecting a Fed cut before September's meeting. It currently prices in a 62% probability of a reduction of at least 25 base points. Fed officials are in an "invisible period" ahead of the policy decision on June 18.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell 0.14%, while the euro rose 0.25%, reaching $1.1423.

Treasury yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury notes were lower to start the week. This reversed after the Friday jobs report drove yields higher. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell 2.8 basis points, to 4.482%.

Investors will be watching the auctions for U.S. bonds and notes of 3, 10 and 30 year maturities this week to see if there is any investor demand. U.S. crude oil settled up 1.1% at $65.29 per barrel while Brent settled at $70.04 per barrel up 0.86% for the day. This was due to hopes that a trade agreement could boost the global economy along with a weaker dollar.

(source: Reuters)