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S&P raises Saudi Arabia’s rating due to its sustained economic shift away oil
S&P, a global ratings agency, raised Saudi Arabia's credit rating from 'A to 'A+ with a stable outlook' on Friday. This was based on the ongoing social-economic transformation of the country. Fitch stated that the Vision 2030 project of the country provides flexibility in managing capital spending and debt issuance. This report stated that the sustained momentum of this project could help boost activity in the construction, manufacturing, and mining sectors to spur GDP growth between 2025-2028. The ratings agency said earlier this week that it expected the Saudi government to reduce capex, and current spending associated with them in 2025. Fitch stated that Saudi Arabia is aiming to diversify their economy and move away from its dependence on hydrocarbons. The current investments will boost the consumption of Saudi Arabia's youth population, as well as increase the productivity capacity of the country. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund signed last week a new Memorandum of Understanding worth $3 billion with Italy’s state export credit agency SACE. Rating agency SACE said that this would help maintain the debt of the country. Fitch expects the current oil price sensitivity will continue to erode fiscal and external balances until 2028. The Saudi giant Aramco is expected to further reduce oil revenues due to its declining dividend.
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Cobre Panama Mine ready to suspend arbitration with Panama
First Quantum, which has closed its Cobre Panama mine, instructed its lawyers on Friday to begin work to suspend arbitration proceedings against Panama. The President of Panama announced on Thursday that his government would allow the exportation of 120,000 tons of copper concentrate, which has been trapped in the closed mine for more than two years. Later, the country’s commerce ministry stated that any negotiations with miner would only be possible if Panama dropped the arbitration case. Manuel Aizpurua is the manager of Cobre Panama. In a memo seen by, he stated that "we have instructed our attorneys to meet with the legal team of the government to work on a suspension of the arbitrations... leading to a resolution that benefits workers and communities as well as suppliers, as well. First Quantum confirmed that the memo was authentic. The shares of the Canadian mining company were up 1% at the Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday after reaching a two-month peak on Thursday. They had risen 15% following news of the approval of copper export. First Quantum was ordered by the Panamanian government under Mulino to close down the open pit Cobre Panama mine at the end of 2023 after protests about environmental concerns. This led to concerns about the maintenance of this massive site, and also 120,000 metric tonnes of copper concentrate that was piled up. The mine, which accounted for 1% global copper production, was one of the top sources in the world before its closure. Mulino said at a press conference held on Thursday that he authorized the removal of copper products that were stranded in the mine. He argued that the copper was being wasted, and that Panama will need to reimbursed after the products have been processed outside the country. The president stated that he will review the future of mine in greater detail as early as next week. Mulino stated, "The mine issue will be handled with great care and always keeping in mind the national interest." We'll begin next week. Reporting by Divyarajagopal and Elidamoreno, Editing by Anthony Esposito & David Gregorio
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Gold investors flock to gold amid Trump-driven turmoil
Investors looking for a safe haven from the political and economic volatility triggered the new U.S. Administration are increasingly turning to gold Exchange-Traded Funds. This is adding momentum to market's record rally. Gold prices have been rising steadily since U.S. president Donald Trump assumed office in January. His radical policy changes, such as trade tariffs and comments that he wants to annex Greenland, along with his unconventional diplomatic approach to end the conflict in Ukraine, has led to successive record highs. Analysts say that the shift in policy has tempted even U.S. Investors who have traditionally preferred equities. Gold reached its latest record on Friday at $3,004.86 per ounce. This represents a 14% increase since the beginning of 2025. In 2024, it had grown by 27%. Gold holdings of Europe listed exchange traded funds have increased by 46,7 metric tons (a 3.6% increase) to 1,334.3 tonnes since the beginning of 2025. This is in contrast to 2021-2024, which was marked by large outflows. As the market continues to move into overbought terrain, further inflows may provide support. Investors such as real money manager, particularly those in the West, needed to be sufficiently scared by a stock market and growth scare for them to return back into gold. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. These investors have now returned to gold after leaving it in 2022, when the Federal Reserve started its rate-hiking cycles. But with other markets showing signs of weakness and the possibility of even lower funding rates for the future, the other markets are now showing signs that they will suffer. Retail investors in the United States are wary about stock markets following Monday's crash, when the benchmark S&P 500 registered its largest drop of this year. Analysts believe that this will increase demand for gold, as it is a safe haven from the turmoil. Alexander Zumpfe is a precious metals dealer at Heraeus Metals. He says that some U.S. investors are less concerned about global risks because they have more confidence in their own economy. However, recent inflows to North American gold ETFs suggest that gold is becoming a popular hedge in the U.S. Gold holdings of ETFs in the United States have increased by 68.1 tons this year, or 4.3%. They now total 1,649.8 tonnes. EQUITIES LOSS COULD BE GOLDS' GAIN Hansen, from Saxo, said that Trump's policies had triggered a withdrawal of cash from U.S. stock markets, which attracted investors for many years. Gold could benefit, at least short-term. Retail investors around the world are eager to get exposure to gold. Adrian Ash, BullionVault’s head of research, stated that the number of people purchasing gold online for the first time jumped to its highest level since May 2021 in February. Ash stated that the gold investor demand at BullionVault was higher than customer profit taking by 0.2 tons, which is the highest level since June 2023. Analysts say that despite all the positive signs for the market, the gold price may not rise, as the signs of an overbought market are evident. John Reade is a senior market strategist with WGC. He said that for gold to remain above $3,000 an ounce, the demand from retail bars and coins in Europe and North America would have to increase further, and/or the central bank purchases intensify. After a recent slump, the only thing that has been increasing in Germany is demand for gold bars and coin. (Reporting and editing by Polina Devtt, Veronica Brown, Barbara Lewis and Pratima Dasai)
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Ukrainian authorities claim that an anti-Russian activist was killed in Odesa.
The authorities have not ruled out Russian involvement. A prominent anti-Russian protester was killed in Odesa, a Ukrainian port city on Friday. Demian Hansul, 31, was identified as the victim. Local media reported that he had taken part in the Maidan Revolution of 2014 against Ukraine's pro-Russian President. Media reported that he was also a former member of the extreme-right Right Sector. Telegram: "The incident qualifies as a premeditated killing committed on order." Security Service reported that a 46-year old military deserter was detained and treated as a suspect. On Telegram local, the Telegram said that possible motives for this crime were being investigated. This included a link to Russia. A video uploaded on Telegram local claimed to have captured the moment of shooting. The video showed a burly, bald man with a gun pointing at the head of an unidentified man who was lying on the pavement. He fired, then walked away. The authenticity of the clip could not be verified. Russian state media had previously branded Hanul a neo Nazi responsible for a May 2014 arson attack at the Trade Union House, Odessa. This was a reference then to violent fighting between pro Russian activists and supporters of Ukrainian unification. In April 2024, a Moscow court in absentia charged Hanul with several crimes. These included damaging Soviet-era monuments of war for which he could have faced up 20 years in prison. In July, several media outlets reported that Hanul requested Ukrainian police protection following threats. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Angus MacSwan and Yuliia dysa)
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Greenland's Democrats are looking for a broad coalition of Democrats to stand united in the face of Trump's pressure
Greenland's parties must put aside their differences and quickly form a wide coalition government in order to show unity against a U.S. annexation campaign, said the Democrats on Friday following this week's elections. Jens-Frederik Nielson, leader of a pro-business party that favors a gradual separation from Denmark, expressed in a post on Facebook the urgency of the current situation following introductory coalition discussions. This is not the moment for internal disputes and political tactics. He said that the situation in our country was far too grave for such tactics. "We stand together when someone threatens us or looks down upon us. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, said on Thursday that the U.S. needs to control Greenland in order to improve international security. When asked about the possibility of an annexation, he replied: "I believe it will happen." On Friday, the leaders of Greenland's Inatsisartut Parliament's five parties rejected Trump's remarks. In a joint press release, they stated that "we - all the party leaders – cannot accept the repeated remarks about annexation of Greenland and its control." They said that "we find this behavior unacceptable towards friends and ally in a defense alliance", adding that they condemned any attempts to cause division. The Democrats, which more than tripled to 10 seats in the chamber of 31, have advocated a responsible mining of Greenland’s vast, but largely untapped, mineral resources as a way to develop the economy, as the semiautonomous territory transitions towards full independence from Denmark. Naleraq, which is strongly pro-independence, came in second place at Tuesday's elections. It doubled its number of seats from four to eight. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson, Christina Fincher and Louise Breusch Rasmussen)
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Baker Hughes reports that the US oil and gas rig counts remained unchanged last week.
Baker Hughes, a leading energy services company, said that the U.S. energy companies this week did not change the number of oil rigs and natural gas rigs in operation. The number of oil and gas rigs, a good indicator of future production, remained at 592 during the week ending March 14. . Baker Hughes reported that the total number of rigs is down 37 or 6% from this time last. Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil rigs rose this week by one, to 487. The number of gas rigs dropped by one, to 100. Oil and gas rig counts are expected to decline by 5% and 20% respectively in 2024, as the lower U.S. gas and oil prices in recent years have prompted energy companies to concentrate more on increasing shareholder returns and paying off debt than increasing output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) projections show that crude production will continue to reach all-time levels for the next two year, even though analysts predict U.S. oil prices will stay the same in 2025. The U.S. oil production will plateau at the end of the decade, said CEOs from Occidental Petroleum Occidental Petroleum ConocoPhillips this week in Houston during the CERAWeek Conference. The EIA predicted a 73% price increase for gas. In 2025, a price drop of 14% in 2024 would cause producers to increase drilling in this year. Several energy firms had cut production in 2024 for the first since the COVID-19 epidemic reduced demand for fuel in 2020. The projected production will increase from 103.2 billion cubic feet per days (bcfd) in 2024, to 105.2 bcfd and 107.5 bcfd by 2026. Executives at CERAWeek said that U.S. gas consumption is expected to continue to reach record levels due to the soaring demand for liquefied gas (LNG) and power consumption by data centers. They also warned a lack infrastructure could harm the industry. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Chy in Bengaluru)
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Data shows that Tupras, a Turkish company, imports the first Brazilian crude cargo.
According to ship tracking data and a source familiar with the matter, Turkey's biggest oil refiner Tupras will receive its first shipment of Itapu crude in early January. Tupras said last month that it stopped buying Russian crude oil after the United States announced new restrictions on Russia's petroleum industry on January 10, According to Kpler and LSEG tracking data, the cargo of Itapu crude oil, approximately 1 million barrels was loaded onto Joao Candido, a Suezmax tanker, on March 12. The data shows that it is expected to arrive in Turkey's Izmit Port, where Tupras operates an oil refinery with a capacity of 225.800 barrels per day, on the 3-4 April. Tupras didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about the purchase, received late on Friday in the Turkish working day. The Kpler data, which dates back to 2013, shows that neither of Tupras’ two refineries in Izmit or Izmir has ever received Brazilian crude. Itapu has an API gravity (density) of 29.3 and a 0.253% sulphur level, according to the data. Urals, a medium-sour crude, has an API gravity of 31.7, and is more sulphurous, at 1.7%. This is according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Kpler reports that Tupras became one of the largest importers of Russian crude oil since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. It received around 305,000 barrels per day of this grade in 2024. A Mediterranean crude trader stated that Itapu was similar in quality to other medium-sweet grades, like Nigeria's Forcados. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis in London, Robert Harvey)
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Rusal, a Russian company, will buy a 50% stake in the Indian owner of an alumina refinery in phases.
Rusal, the Russian aluminium giant, announced on Friday that it has agreed to purchase a 26% share in an Indian alumina refining company for $243.75 millions and will acquire up to 50% over time. This move should help reduce Rusal's reliance on third party raw materials. Rusal is the largest aluminum producer in the world outside of China. Although the sanctions against Moscow for the conflict in Ukraine have not directly targeted Rusal, it has lost 40% of its alumina supply after Australia stopped exports to Russia, and Rusal closed its alumina refining plant in Ukraine. Rusal reduced its deficit by increasing its raw material purchases from China, India and Kazakhstan. In October 2023 it acquired a 30% share in a Chinese manufacturer to compensate for the falling volumes of alumina. Rusal still purchased more than one-third of its alumina requirements for aluminum production at global exchange rates as of November 2024. This, it said, "puts serious strain on the production margins". Rusal announced that it had agreed to buy up to 50% in three phases of the share capital of Pioneer Aluminium Industries Limited through a fully-owned subsidiary. Rusal announced that it would purchase 26% of Pioneer’s shares at a price of $243.75 millions plus any contractual adjustments for debt and net working capital. Rusal stated that "(Pioneer), owns and operates an alumina refinery in Andhra Pradesh (India) with a nameplate capacity of 1,5 million tonnes per year." Rusal announced that it and its vendors, the Pioneer group and KCap, will supply bauxite to Pioneer and receive alumina according to their respective shares. Rusal (listed in Hong Kong) reported on Friday a nearly three-fold increase in its annual profits, due to lower production costs as well as higher aluminium prices. (Reporting Anastasia Lyrchikova, Alexander Marrow and Elaine Hardcastle; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle).
The price of gas in Europe is falling due to strong winds and the ceasefire talks with Ukraine
The Dutch and British gas price continued to drop on Friday morning, amid high expectations for wind power production and talk of a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict.
The Dutch front-month contracts > dropped by 0.29 euros to 41.79 Euro per megawatt hour at 0907 GMT on ICE.
The Dutch March contract fell by 0.27 euros to 41.66 Euro/MWh.
The British front-month contracts were down 0.43 pence to 102.56 p/therm.
LSEG data indicated that stronger wind speeds are expected for the beginning of next week. Gas for power in Northwest Europe is forecast to be down 201 gigawatt-hours a day (GWh/d), at 2,908 GWh/d on Monday.
The possibility of a Ukrainian ceasefire has also been raised after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that the U.S. proposal was accepted by his country, but any ceasefire must address the root causes of conflict and many details need to be worked out.
Putin mentioned a possible energy partnership between the U.S.A. and Russia, and mentioned a pipeline of gas for Europe.
Analysts at Energy Aspects stated that the market was hedging between Russian gas flowing back and flow levels remaining subdued.
Analysts said that there was still significant opposition from Europe and Ukraine to the restarting of the pipeline flow, along with legal and logistical obstacles.
The Trump administration announced on Thursday that a license for energy transactions with Russian financial institutes expired this week. This increased pressure on Putin to reach a peace deal over Ukraine.
In a daily comment, LSEG analyst Saku Jussila said: "This could be a bullish catalyst for energy commodities generally but shouldn't affect the European Gas Markets directly."
The benchmark carbon contract in Europe fell by 0.80 euros to 69.80 Euros per metric ton. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
(source: Reuters)